16 days with a slight or moderate severe risk, from July 14 to August 2, 80% of the days during that period, according to the local National Weather Service office. Details below.
326 reports of damaging winds in the Twin Cities NWS forecast area since July 1 (winds higher than 58 mph).
Today: partly sunny, dry. Average dew point: 67. Winds: SE 7-12. Hours of rain: 0
Saturday: Warmer day of the weekend - mostly cloudy, PM showers/T-storms (some severe?). Average dew point: 71. Winds: SE 10-15. Hours of rain: 2-4.
Sunday: Hints of September. Clouds & showers giving way to slow clearing late in the day. Average dew point: 63. Winds: NW 10-20 (choppy on area lakes). Hours of rain: 2-3 (best chance morning and midday).
* your best shot at dry weather this weekend for the Uptown Art Fair, the Loring Park Arts Festival and Tour 'de Tonka: Saturday morning, or late Sunday, after 3 or 4 pm.
"Ike": the last hurricane to make landfall in the USA in 2008. Last year saw above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Carribean, but none of the hurricanes hit the United States.
“...The Missouri River is flooding,” said Dr. James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, during a visit to Omaha on Tuesday. “We’ve had 100 years floods now a couple of times on the Missouri River recently. That’s one of the expected consequences of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.” - story from KVNO News on the Missouri River flooding below.
A Very Severe Summer. Check out this eye-opening post from the Chanhassen office of the NWS:
"Meteorologists at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issue national convective outlooks that extend out to a week for severe thunderstorm potential. An outlook for day 1, or today or tonight, is issued and updated a handful of routine times as the day unfolds. From June 30th through August 2nd, a span of 34 days, the NWS Chanhassen CWA was under at least a slight risk for 23 of them (68%). From July 14th through August 2nd, a slight risk or higher severe threat was in effect 16 of those days, an astounding 80%. More insight on the SPC risks and what they mean can further be read about here. "
Fewer Severe Storm Warnings Than 2010. 301 tornado and severe storm warnings, to date, in 2011. That compares to a total of 366 warnings in 2010. Source: Chanhassen National Weather Service office.
"Emily": RIP? Tropical Storm Emily weakened into a tropical wave Thursday afternoon, the main circulation dissipating over Hispaniola, dumping out some 10"+ rains on Haiti and the Dominican Republic. There's still a small chance that Emily will redevelop over the Bahamas - but the threat posted to the east coast of Florida has diminished. Even so, hurricane forecasters will be keeping a close eye on the soggy remains of Emily, watching for signs of strengthening over the warm waters of the Caribbean. Satellite loop courtesy of WSI's Intellicast. From NHC:
SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
Friday Severe Threat. Storms may exceed severe limits from eastern Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas and far western Minnesota - another (slight) severe risk over the southeastern USA, from Memphis and Huntsville to Atlanta and Charlotte, firing up along a stalled frontal boundary. Data courtesy of SPC.
ERCOT: "High Probability" Of Rolling Blackouts. The risk of brown-outs and even black-outs related to extreme heat in Texas is on the increase. Here's an update from Austin's KUT.com: "The state's energy regulator said in a Tweet moments ago that there is now a "high probability" of rolling blackouts across the state. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas escalated the Energy Emergency Alert to Level 2B, meaning energy reserves are below 1,750 megawatts and continuing to decline. If power reserves continue to become depleted, ERCOT will initiate a Level 3 emergency. This is the worst case scenario involving rolling blackouts across the state. Everyone can expect outages that are supposed to range from 15 to 45 minutes in length, although they may be longer. Hospitals and other essential services are not supposed to lose power."
More Record Highs For Thursday. Thanks to NOAA and Chad Merrill from Earth Networks:
...RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT WICHITA FALLS...
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT SHEPPARD AIR FORCE BASE IN WICHITA FALLSTODAY WAS 111 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR AUGUST 4TH. THE
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MCALESTER OKLAHOMA...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES WAS SET AT MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 106...SET IN 1956.
...ADDITIONAL ALL TIME RECORDS ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SEVERAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE NETWORK OBSERVING
SITES ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ESTABLISHED NEW ALL TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY...AUGUST 3RD.
AT OZARK...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 114 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS
ALL TIME RECORD WAS 108 DEGREES...SET ON AUGUST 2ND 2011.
AT GRAVETTE...THE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 114 DEGREES WAS
TIED YESTERDAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED ON JULY 19TH 1936.
DATA RECORDS FOR GRAVETTE BEGAN IN 1898.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THE DATA FOR THE PRESENT OBSERVATION SITE IN OZARK
BEGINS IN 1994. THE ORIGINAL OBSERVING LOCATION IN OZARK WAS
CLOSED IN FEBRUARY 1994...AND MOVED TO THE PRESENT LOCATION. THE
ORIGINAL SITE BEGAN COLLECTING DATA IN 1893. WHILE SOME DATA IS
AVAILABLE FOR THE ORIGINAL OZARK SITE...THERE ARE SEVERAL YEARS OF
MISSING DATA. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE DATA AVAILABLE...A RECORD
TEMPERATURE OF 116 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED AT THE ORIGINAL SITE ON
JULY 31ST AND AUGUST 1ST 1986.
...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WACO...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY...AUGUST 4TH...AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT
WAS 108 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE
OF 106 DEGREES SET IN 1951.
...ALL-TIME RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TIED AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...
...DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 4TH...DALLAS/FORT WORTH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 108 DEGREES AND A LOW TEMPERATURE OF
86 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 108 BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 107 SET IN
1951. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86 TIES THE ALL-TIME WARMEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH.
* photo above courtesy of world66.com.
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CORPUS CHRISTI...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS TIED AT CORPUS CHRISTI TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1990.
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DEL RIO ...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES WAS SET AT DEL RIO TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 104 SET IN 1998.
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 107 DEGREES WAS SET AT AUSTIN CAMP MABRY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 105 SET IN 1951.
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SAN ANTONIO...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAN ANTONIO TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1962.
1,676 Tornadoes As Of July 31. This is a preliminary count from SPC - state by state details can be found here.
14,588 Reports Of Damaging Winds As Of July 31. The coverage of severe straight-line wind reports east of the Rockies is pretty amazing, again, courtesy of SPC, the Storm Prediction Center. Winds over 58 mph are plotted.
8,017 Reports Of Damaging Hail As Of July 31. Damaging hail is defined as 1" diameter or larger. Map courtesy of SPC.
- NOAA issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May.
- Forecasters also increased their confidence that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season.
- Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña. Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.
- Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10.
- These ranges are indicative of an active season, and extend well above the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
- The Atlantic basin has already produced five tropical storms this season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily. All eyes this week are on Emily, which continues to develop and move towards the United States.
- The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Last year saw above-normal hurricane activity, but none made landfall in the United States.
- August through October are peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and FEMA urges people not to be lured into a false sense of security by the lack of hurricanes so far this year.
* We use cutting edge weather technology for our video weather updates from a number of vendors: Baron Services ("OMNI" graphic above), Weather Central and a Berlin company, The Meteo Group. In addition we create our own, in-house graphics and maps via Ham Weather.
Weather Perfection. I can't imagine a nicer day (we've had a couple of perfect days in a row this week). Under a deep blue sky the mercury reached 82 at Alexandria, 85 at St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 86 at Redwood Falls.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Global Warming Expert: (Missouri) Flooding Caused By Climate Change. KVNO News has the story: "Overlooking the swollen banks of the Missouri river at Omaha’s riverfront landing, one scientist has an important explanation for the past three months of flooding. While many consider the flood man-made, a result of water releases by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers upriver, this theory aims to look deeper into the root of the problem. “The Missouri River is flooding,” said Dr. James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, during a visit to Omaha on Tuesday. “We’ve had 100 years floods now a couple of times on the Missouri River recently. That’s one of the expected consequences of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.” Hansen, who is considered by many to be one of the world’s leading experts on global warming, said the Missouri river is a prime example of how global warming is affecting the earth. “This is a problem which is not easy for the person in the street to see,” he said. “Unless you do statistics, and you see that the frequency of these events is changing. It’s not so easy to see that changes are occurring because the climate system has tremendous inertia.” Hansen explained, “The ocean is four kilometers deep, the ice sheets are two or three kilometers thick, so they don’t respond immediately as we begin to change the atmospheric composition. What that means is that we’ve only experienced about half of the warming that will be cause by the gases already in the atmosphere.”
Poll: Majority Thinks Global Warming "Scientists" Lie. Really? Fox "News" has the "story": "The debate over global warming has intensified in recent weeks after a new NASA study was interpreted by skeptics to reveal that global warming is not man-made. While a majority of Americans nationwide continue to acknowledge significant disagreement about global warming in the scientific community, most go even further to say some scientists falsify data to support their own beliefs. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 69% say it’s at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified research data in order to support their own theories and beliefs, including 40% who say this is Very Likely. Twenty-two percent (22%) don’t think it’s likely some scientists have falsified global warming data, including just six percent (6%) say it’s Not At All Likely. Another 10% are undecided."