25 F. average high on February 2.
21 F. high on February 2, 2015.
February 2, 1996: The all-time state record low temperature is set in Minnesota. With numerous media folk present, the low dips to -60 three miles south of Tower. Governor Arne Carlson cancelled school statewide due to the cold.
February 2, 1988: The temperature bottoms out at -43 at Embarrass.
February 2, 1927: Spring-like temperatures are felt on Groundhog Day. Tracy is 57 and Fairmont reaches 56.
Uh oh. Time to call out the National Guard, alert FEMA, resuscitate Al Roker, and put the President on hold. Yes, it's going to snow hard this afternoon.
Timing The Storm: Here is future radar (based primarily on NOAA NAM guidance). Graphics courtesy of AerisWeather, which has superimposed surface temperatures at specific points in time:
Catching Up. As of Monday MSP snowfall for the wiinter was the same as Des Moines: 18.7" That's just not right. Sioux Falls has picked up two and a half times more snow than the Twin Cities, which (as of yesterday) was running a 15.3" snowfall deficit, to date. Those numbers will change today.
Regional Overview. Most of Wisconsin and Minnesota is running a snowfall deficit for the winter, as of February 1. At International Falls a nearly 24" snowfall hole, a whopping 52.2" deficit at Marquette, Michigan! Numbers and maps courtesy of AerisWeather meteorologist D.J. Kayser.
Animation credit above: "The transition of Hurricane Joaquin near the Bahamas to an extratropical storm that hit the U.K."
* The report referenced above is available here (pdf).
Photo credit above: " " Credit Matt Lutton for The New York Times.
Image credit above: "Ben Lecomte has swum across the Atlantic Ocean, and now he aims to traverse the Pacific, which will take him five or six months." Bongani Mlambo/The Longest Swim.
TUESDAY: Winter Storm Warning, snow becomes heavier by afternoon. Winds: NE 15-30. High: 28
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow tapers late, potential for 4-8" - heaviest amounts south metro. Treacherous travel. Winds: NE 15-30. Low: 16
WEDNESDAY: Flurries taper, travel slowly improves. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 20
THURSDAY: Weak clipper, few flurries. Wake-up: 14. High: 25
FRIDAY: Patchy clouds, above avg. temps. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 16. High: 29
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, thawing out by afternoon. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 18. High: 33
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, dripping icicles. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 25. High: 35
MONDAY: Colder wind, coating of flakes? Wake-up: 16. High: 22
“The DoD must be able to adapt current and future operations to address the impacts of climate change in order to maintain an effective and efficient U.S. military” to include:
- Identification and assessment of the effects of climate change on the DoD mission.
- Taking those effects into consideration when developing plans and implementing procedures.
- Anticipating and managing risks that develop as a result of climate change to build resilience.
Record Snowfall, Changing Climate Raise Questions About Preparedness for Storm Cleanup. Are we now seeing super-sized snowstorms and blizzards, the result of a warmer, wetter atmosphere with more water vapor available to fuel developing systems? Here's an excerpt from The Baltimore Sun: "...Meteorologists say it may be prudent to expect more snow. Paul Kocin, a NOAA meteorologist, said it may not be time for the Baltimore area to invest in the kind of snow removal equipment used in Buffalo or Boston. But he has noticed a pattern of megastorms hitting in recent years. While a link hasn't been proven, he said one cause could be global warming, and that could make big snowstorms more likely in the future. Antonio Busalacchi Jr., a professor of atmospheric and oceanic science at the University of Maryland, College Park, said: "As climate warms, there is an increase in water vapor that has to come down somewhere."
South England's 2014 Floods Made More Likely by Climate Change. Speaking of more fuel available to "juice" storms; here's an excerpt from New Scientist: "...Immediately after the January 2014 storms, Nathalie Schaller of the University of Oxford and her colleagues wanted to run simulations of the weather across the whole of Europe and asses its impact. To do so they utilised the spare capacity of people’s home computers through a citizen science project called weather@home. In their 134,354 simulations, they varied sea surface temperature and sea ice to compare the actual climate with a hypothetical world in which there was no human influence on the atmosphere. “Being able to run this many simulations means we can have high statistical confidence in the results,” says Neil Massey, also from the University of Oxford. Schaller and her colleagues showed that global warming made it 43 per cent more likely to happen..." (File photo: UK Met Office).
Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases. Will warming air and oceans accelerate the spread of Zika Virus? Here's an excerpt from Climate Nexus: "...By altering conditions--local temperatures, rainfall and population movements--that determine the spread of the pathogens, global warming makes the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) unpredictable and difficult to control. When it comes to VBDs like Zika, climate change is a threat multiplier.
Rising global temperatures can lengthen the season and increase the geographic range of disease-carrying insects. As temperatures warm, mosquitoes and other warm-weather vectors can move into higher altitudes and new regions farther from the equator.
Increased rainfall, flooding and humidity creates more viable areas for vector breeding and allows breeding to occur more quickly, as eggs hatch faster in hotter climates..."
- Averaged over the five-year period 2016-2020, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming over land, and at high northern latitudes. There is some indication of continued cool conditions in the Southern Ocean, and of relatively cool conditions in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre. The latter is potentially important for climate impacts over Europe, America and Africa.
- During the five-year period 2016-2020, global average temperature is expected to remain high and is likely to be between 0.28°C and 0.77°C above the long-term (1981-2010) average. This compares with an anomaly of +0.44 ± 0.1 °C observed in 2015, currently the warmest year on record. These high global temperatures are consistent with continued high levels of greenhouse gases and big changes that are currently underway in the climate system and were highlighted in a recent Met Office research news article...