Paul Douglas Weather Column

Coldest Day In Sight, But 10s & 20s... Come On

2012-01-29T00:05:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Partly sunny with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight. High: 22. Winds: WNW 5-10mph turning south late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few light snow showers. Low: 20. Winds: S 5-10mph

MONDAY: Lingering flurries possible early, then partly sunny and a little warmer. High: 38.

TUESDAY: Mild with a little light rain and snow possible later. Low: 26. High: 38.

WEDNESDAY: AM flurry or two. More PM sun and mild for the first day of February. Low: 26. High: 37.

THURSDAY: Clouds thicken, a few flurries late. Low: 23. High: 34

FRIDAY: Sub-freezing daytime highs, for a change. Low: 20 High: 29

SATURDAY: Near average temps with bright sun. Low: 17. High: 29

     Sure, today is going to be the coldest day in sight, but come on... we can handle 20s. We here are a hardy bunch, in fact, I heard reports of some brave souls dawning shorts when the mercury hit 40 last week. It has been a strange winter, no doubt.
     Meteorologically speaking, we are nearly two-thirds of the way done with the coldest three month on average for the Northern Hemisphere, how about that! December ended up being the 10th warmest December in recorded history and January is following suit. There are only a few days left in the month and we're already in the top ten warmest January's on record. I think we'll be able to retain that mark as temperatures into the early part of next week are expected to flirt with 40 once again.
    If you're wondering where the cold is, check Alaska where they are boasting one of the coldest January's in recorded history. Fairbanks woke up to -50F on Saturday and that made the 14th day this month that temps have bottomed out to -40 or colder. As a general rule of thumb, when Alaska is cold, we are warm and the forecast for Alaska remains cold into the first week of February, so you know what that means for us!

Bold From The Blue Spices Up Perth Fireworks - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corp.)

"Nature and technology combine to create a spectacular light show over the Perth skyline during the Australia Day fireworks on January 26, 2012."

See the Link HERE:

Unusual Ice-Free Great Lakes

The information below is from the National Weather Service in Gaylord, MI Facebook Page

"High resolution satellite imagery taken Friday showing the incredible lack of ice on the Great Lakes this winter. The ice that is out there around the Straits is very thin as well. Note the lack of ice on Whitefish Bay as well, and the breaking up of ice on Green Bay from the recent warmup."

Update on the Alaskan Cold

The information below comes from the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, AK:

"PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 318 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2012 …14 DAYS WITH DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE -40 OR COLDER SO FAR THIS MONTH… …JANUARY 2012 WILL BE THE COLDEST JANUARY IN THE LAST 40 YEARS… TODAY…JANUARY 28TH…MARKS THE 14TH DAY THIS MONTH THAT THE TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BOTTOMED OUT AT -40 DEGREES OR COLDER. THE RECORD NUMBER OF DAYS WITH -40 OR COLDER IN JANUARY WAS 21 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1906 AND AGAIN IN 1971. 1934 IS THIRD PLACE WITH 20 DAYS. THE YEARS 1947 AND 1969 TIED FOR FOURTH WITH 16 DAYS EACH. OTHER MEMORABLE YEARS SINCE 1971 INCLUDE…1973 WITH 15 DAYS… 1989 WITH 14 DAYS…1997 AND 2009 WITH 11 DAYS EACH…AND 1975 WITH 10 DAYS. THIS JANUARY WILL BE THE COLDEST JANUARY SINCE 1971 AS BASED ON WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 1ST THROUGH THE 27TH… 2012 HAS BEEN 25.0 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. TWO YEARS OUT OF THE PAST 40 YEARS WERE VERY CLOSE TO THIS AVERAGE. THE YEAR 1972 HAD AN AVERAGE OF -21.5 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST 27 DAYS AND 2006 HAD AN AVERAGE OF -21.1. GOING BACK ONE MORE YEAR TO 1971 SHOWS A LOWER AVERAGE FOR JANUARY 1ST THROUGH 27TH…WITH -29.8. ONLY 8 YEARS ON RECORD SHOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE FIRST 27 DAYS OF JANUARY…THAN THE CURRENT YEAR OF 2012. THESE YEARS WERE 1906 WITH -40.8…1934 WITH -36.6…1971 WITH -29.8… 1969 WITH -29.7…1966 WITH -27.4…1909 WITH -25.5…1951 WITH -25.4…AND 1943 WITH -25.1. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FAIRBANKS THROUGH JANUARY 31ST…SO THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY 2012 MAY END UP BEING 7TH OR 8TH PLACE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY SINCE JANUARY OBSERVATIONS STARTED IN 1906. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR A DAY IS FOUND BY AVERAGING THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. $$"

Saturday Morning Lows

An Even Hardier Bunch In Alaska

The picture below is from a good friend of mine John Thain, who lives in Fairbanks Alaska right now. He is an outdoors-man through and through and Alaska is his kind of speed. The cold air doesn't phase him, in fact, he was out and about checking out the northern lights!

Google Celebrates World's Largest Snowflake

"Google is at it again, creating yet another of its whimsical doodles. This time, the search giant’s Google Doodle on its main search page revels in the glories of midwinter, celebrating the 125th anniversary of the discovery of the world’s largest snowflake. How large was it? How’s 15 inches (38 centimeters) grab you? Imagine the looks on the faces of those who saw this enormous ice crystal the size of a pizza falling from the sky in Fort Keogh, Montana in 1887."

You can see the neat story & video HERE:

Good Morning From Miami

Thanks to my good friend, Bay Scroggins, for the picture below. Even with mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, the temperature reached 82F! Ahh, I could use a nice 82F day right about now.

Boston, MA Extreme Snow Drought

The EagleTribune.com has some great stats on Boston, MA and their snow drought, take a look below.

You can see the full story HERE:

"Total snowfall as of yesterday: 7.6 inches for the Boston area. Average total snowfall (30 years) as of Jan. 25: 20.8 inches. Total snowfall by Jan. 25, 2011: 50.4 inches. Annual average total snowfall for the last 30 years: 41.8 inches Total snowfall for the winter of 2010-2011: 81 inches. Latest snowfall: May 8-9, 1977. Boston received a half inch of snow. Worcester received about a foot. Since 1892 there have been 10 years with less than 20 inches of total snowfall. Least total snowfall: 9 inches for the winter of 1936-1937. Second most least: 10.3 inches for the winter of 1972-1973. Third least: 12.7 inches for the winter of 1979-1980. Haverhill spent about $2.2 million on snow plowing and associated operations last winter. The city has spent approximately $275,000 this year, Haverhill's public works Director Michael Stankovich said."

Temperature Forecast

Take a look at the week ahead temperature forecast. After today, temperatures return to well above average levels. 40F may not be out of the question a couple of times! The image below shows the temperature trend through the next several days, the peaks indicate high temperatures. The orange horizontal line shows the 40F temperature line and the blue horizontal line shows the near normal temperature line for the end of January/start of February. Note how we stay above average after Sunday and get near 40F a few days. I think with forecast high temperatures as warm as they'll be, we'll get into the top 10 warmest January's on record!

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend and great week ahead!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-

Wintry Weekend

2012-01-27T22:11:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. High: 28. Winds: W 10-15 Gusts to 20mph

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and colder with scattered light snow showers, light coating. Low: 10. Winds: WNW 5-10mph

SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Partly sunny with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight. High: 19. Winds: NW 5-10mph turning south late.

MONDAY: Lingering flurries possible early, then partly sunny and a little warmer. Low: 16. High: 36.

TUESDAY: Cloudy and mild with a light rain and snow mix possible. Low: 22. High: 36.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering clouds and flurries, still mild. Peeks of PM sun. Low: 24. High: 32.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, chance of light snow. Low: 21. High: 32

FRIDAY: Lingering light snow, cooler. Low: 21 High: 28

Friday's Weather in Photos

Friday was kind of a neat day weather-wise. I awoke to this faint sun pillar, which is visible just left of the church steeple. Sun pillars are shafts of light that reflect off of ice crystals in the atmosphere.

Clippin' Along

2012-01-27T00:13:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow and light accumulations 1" possible. High: 33. Winds: Turning WNW 10-15

FRIDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers with decreasing clouds and some clearing. Low: 15. Winds: NW 10-15.

SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. High: 27. Winds: W 5-15.

SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Some sun early with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight Low: 8. High: 18.

MONDAY: Clouds thicken, PM drizzle or flurries possible by late afternoon. Low: 11. High: 31.

TUESDAY: Wintry mix changes to snow. Low: 20. High: 34.

WEDNESDAY: Lingering clouds and flurries, still mild. Low: 23. High: 32.

THURSDAY: Another mild day, more PM sun. Low: 22. High: 35

Hockey Rink Roof Collapse

This is unreal and it's unbelievable that nobody got hurt! Heavy snow was a contributing factor to the roof of this hockey rink in Slovakia collapsing. Ex-NHLer Richard Zednik was on the ice just before the collapse.

See the video/story HERE:

     Here's an interesting stat, Wednesday's rainfall across parts of Texas (25% of the state still considered in an exceptional drought) had it's heaviest rainfall event (some spots had nearly 10") since Tropical Storm Hermine back in September 2010. Unfortunately, Texas is still so far behind normal precipitation that this was more of a drought denter versus a drought buster.
     We could use a little more substantial moisture up this way as well. The U.S. Drought Monitor has most of Minnesota in a moderate drought and nearly 25% of the state in the severe drought category, which encompasses part of the southern Metro.
     Snow enthusiasts are all too aware of the snow drought this season as we are nearly 17" behind normal. At this time last year, the Twin Cities had seen nearly 56" and were well on our way into record setting territory. We may be in record setting territory again this year, but on the other end of the scale. Our measly 14.4" of snow so far this year is within the top ten lightest snowfall seasons on record, for now... we still have a lot of winter left. A clipper drop through today and kicks out a light snow coating by the afternoon.

Texas' Heavy Rain

Wednesday's heavy rain across parts of Texas was some of the heaviest rain the state has seen since Tropical Storm Hermine back in September of 2010. The heavy rain also brought about a marked rise in lake levels, check it out!

"Area lakes continue to respond to additional inflow of water from creeks and streams following the heavy rainfall earlier this week. Some lakes are up 6 feet and are near and over normal levels. The image is a graphic of 48 hour lake elevation levels. www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd"

Texas' Big Drought

Even though some parts of Texas picked up record rains, there is still a long way to go. Again, this event was more of a denter than a buster. Look at the Drought Monitor across Texas, 25% of the state is still in an exceptional drought.

Rain Needed to End Drought

This a glance at how much rain is needed to end the drought or at least get us closer to normal

Minnesota's Drought Concerns

Although the drought isn't as bad as Texas', we still have problems of our own. Look at the Drought Monitor for the state of Minnesota, note that most of the state is in a MODERATE drought.

Precipitation Needed to End Minnesota Drought

Again, it isn't quite as bad as Texas', but it sure has been dry out there.

Cold Temperatures in Alaska

Temperatures across Alaska continue to dip into the double digits below zero and are running nearly 17F below average. With several days still left in the month and temperatures expected to drop into the -40s, this could end up being one of the top 5 coldest January's in recorded history at Fairbanks!

NUMBERS SHOW JANUARY 2012 IN FAIRBANKS HAS BEEN FRIGID…
TEMPERATURES IN FAIRBANKS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
IN FACT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 15 TO 17 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS BEEN -24.6 DEGREES WHICH IS 16.7 DEGREES BELOW THE JANUARY AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURE OF -7.9 DEGREES MAKING IT THE 7TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS STILL LEFT IN THE MONTH AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S BELOW…THIS MONTH WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE 5 COLDEST ON RECORD.
THE AVERAGE HIGH SO FAR HAS BEEN -15.5 DEGREES…WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE HIGH OF 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE. THE AVERAGE LOW HAS BEEN -33.6 DEGREES…WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF -16.9 DEGREES. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT THAT MODERATION WILL ONLY PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR JANUARY.

The image below shows some of the coldest temperatures recorded within the last 24 hours

Concerned Crab and Cod Fishermen in the Bering Sea

This is another problem with the extremely cold air... crab and cod fishermen in the Bering Sea are having a hard time navigating through the massive ice sheets coming down into St. Paul and St. George Islands.

"The NWS Ice Desk's phone has been ringing frequently this week with calls from concerned crab and cod fishermen out in the Bering Sea wondering what's going on with the ice edge. While some of the fishermen may not remember the ice ever coming down this fast, this is only the 4th earliest in our 27 years of records (dating back to 1986) for the ice to arrive at the northern St. Paul Island coast during January.

For a complete report of the early ice edge at the Pribilof Islands see our webpage: ( http://bit.ly/AC32FD).

St. Paul island is currently surrounded by sea ice up to 1 1/2 feet thick, covering 50 to 70% of the water surface. On Friday this ice will continue to increase in concentration to cover over 70% of the water surface.

St. George Island has strips of thinner ice up to 1 foot thick in concentrations of 10 to 30%. Higher concentrations of ice are expected to push in on Friday."

Custom Built Tornado Home Survives Alabama Tornado

This home was built to withstand high winds and it did just that. The tornadoes wasn't able to damage the structure, but it moved the home off of its foundation.

"A couple in Alabama built their home to withstand a hurricane and ended up surviving the tornado that moved through Birmingham on Monday. The house was picked up, moved 20 feet, and set down at a 15 degree angle to where it was."

The picture below is from The Birmingham News - see the story HERE

To Shovel or not to Shovel... That is the Question.

I'd have to say that forecasting clipper systems could be one of the most challenging out of all the winter weather events. It may not be the hardest, but if certainly ranks up there. Why? Take a look at the image below. This is just one models solution to Friday's snow event. Note how skinny the 'heaviest' snow is... not very. Over the course of the last several model runs, I've seen this solution change quite a bit and forecasting a narrow strip 1" to 3" of snow that could shift its track 25 to 50 miles north or south could mean dramatically less or more snow depending on where this thing sails off to. So, with that said, I could see light snow developing tomorrow across the area with light accumulations possible. Some may have to do a little light shoveling, but again, this is not going to be a blockbuster event. This could however slow your afternoon/evening commute down quite a bit, especially if the heaviest snow sails right overhead... Stay tuned!

Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead!

Don't forget to check me out on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-

Pacific Remnants

2012-01-25T19:08:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

THURSDAY: AM flurry possible. More PM sun and breezy. Another thaw. High: 34. Winds: W 10-20mph

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloud and quiet. Low: 18. Winds: W 10-15mph

FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow chance later, mainly across the Minnesota River valley High: 31. Winds: WNW 10-15

SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Low: 16. High: 27.

SUNDAY: Cold sunshine dims by afternoon.. Low: 8. High: 18.

MONDAY: Clouds thicken, PM drizzle or flurries possible. Low: 11. High: 31.

TUESDAY: Wintry mix changes to snow. Low: 20. High: 34.

WEDNESDAY: Still mild, nothing rough. Low: 20. High: 30.

Northern Lights Event

This is quite a video from Norway, check it out HERE:

Yesterday's deluge in Texas was the first substantial rainfall the state has seen in some time, good news for those still dealing with an exceptional drought. The only problem is that some folks had nearly 7" of rain in just a few hours leading to flash flooding. There were reports of nearly a dozen water rescues in Austin after nearly 6" of rain fell during the early morning hours on Wednesday. That storm system is going to threaten some of the same areas of Mississippi and Alabama that had significant storms and tornadoes earlier this week.
After talking with a good friend and colleague of mine at WeatherNation about Monday's tornadoes (12 confirmed), he had a hard time telling me about areas that were flattened again. A school, that he did a number of public speaking engagements at, is gone. Even with an average lead time of 34 mintues (according to NOAA), there were still fatalities. Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone dealing with these events.
A steady stream of Pacific moisture is getting squeezed out over the northern Rockies, we are getting the remnants. Our next shot at light snow scoots in on Friday, stay tuned!

National Weather Outlook

There are 2 areas of interest again today, which are highlighted by the yellow circles below. These are the same two areas that had the interesting weather yesterday.

1.) Severe in the South & Heavy Rain

2.) Pacific Northwest Coastal Flooding & Mountain Snow

Severe in the South & Heavy Rain

This was the scene from Austin, TX on Tuesday – Thanks to SChimaHusky, who had his birthday on the day it hailed! HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!

See his video HERE:

Storm Report Map

Along with the hail reports, there were also a number of wind damage reports and even some tornadoes reports on Wednesday. It was definitely another very active day!

Tornado Confirmed by NWS

Here's a brief story from digitaltexan.net

Here was the preliminary damage survey from the Austin NWS

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS
MORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN.  THE
FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED...

EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012
EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0
EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AM
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES:   33.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14
DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50

THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVE
AND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR
2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THEN
ACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION.
FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL...
WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THE
WEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES.  DEBRIS WAS NOTED
ALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD.

Shelf Cloud in Kingsville, TX

Look at what folks in Kingsville, TX woke up to Wednesday AM. This is a “Shelf Cloud” or the leading edge of a line of thunderstorm. This would indicate that strong gusty winds and heavy rain will probably be moving in very soon... Take cover!!

Squall Line Across Texas

Look at the radar image from earlier Wednesday near Houston, TX! Yikes, that looks nasty! The red boxes are thunderstorm warnings, which produced wind damage and possibly even tornado damage as it moved through central and eastern Texas.

Not Done With Severe Weather

Thursday has been highlighted as another day of severe weather weather potential along the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned to latest forecasts and have those weather radios running with battery back-up just in case severe weather threatens your neighborhood!

Thursday’s Severe Weather Threat

Record Rainfall

Austin, TX early Wednesday morning had already seen over 5″ of rain (good enough for a daily rainfall record) A number of other record rainfall reports fell as well. Note: the numbers below don't show how much rain actually fell on Wednesday, it was only a representation from what fell through early Wednesday.

Here's a story on the heavy rain that fell in Texas from Star-Telegram.com

"It might not be a drought-buster, but more than 4 inches of rain across the region draped a dripping wet blanket on a ferocious dry spell that stretches back to October 2010."

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/01/25/3686451/deluge-creates-travel-woes-but.html#storylink=cpy

More Heavy Rain in the Forecast

This is the rainfall forecast through AM Friday, note the widespread 1″ to 3″ amounts across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Minor flooding along area rivers and stream could also be a problem in these locations. Note also the Pacific Northwest where heavy moisture continues through Friday, where heavy coastal rain could lead to flooding. Mountain snow will continue to add up too!

Google Public Alerts!

This is new to me... check out Google Public Alerts HERE:

What is Google Public Alerts?

Google Public Alerts is Google’s new platform for disseminating emergency messages such as evacuation notices for hurricanes, and everyday alerts such as storm warnings. We’re starting by showing relevant weather, public safety and earthquake alerts from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Weather Service, and the US Geological Survey (USGS) when you search on Google Maps.

Friday Snow Chance

Another weak disturbance will quickly slide through on Friday, at this point it looks like the best chance for accumulations will be along the Minnesota River Valley and along the Minnesota/Iowa border.

Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week!

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-

Local Weather Not Too Threatening; More on the Alabama Tornadoes

2012-01-24T19:55:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

WEDNESDAY: A few flurries possible early. Clearing trend and warmer. High: 32. Winds: S 5-15mph

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Lingering northern lights possible. Low: 23. Winds: SW 5-10mph

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun and breezy. Another thaw. High: 34. Winds: W 10-20mph

FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow chance later. Low: 17. High: 30. Winds: WNW 10-15

SATURDAY: Turning colder. Partly sunny and a few lingering flurries possible. Low: 15. High: 23.

SUNDAY: Still chilly. Partly sunny and more flurries, mainly north. Low: 8. High: 23.

MONDAY: Slightly warmer, patchy clouds: Low: 12. High: 28.

TUESDAY: Nothing rough. Sun and cloud mix. Low: 20. High: 32.

Paul Sundberg Photography

Nice shot Paul! You can read his commentary below and check out his website HERE:

"Earlier in the week lots of ice had built up on the Grand Marais break wall. I walked out to take a few pictures but before I got there I was in for a pleasant surprise.

There in front of me right along side of the trail was a beautiful snowy owl. Snowy owls are one of the largest owls in the world. They live on the tundra but sometimes come down to United States during the winter. This snowy was so well camouflaged that I wouldn’t have even seen her had she not moved her head to look at me. The feathers on her back blended right in with the rocks. The snowy was very tolerant of my presence. As she took flight she gracefully passed right by the windows of the border patrol station before landing out on Artist Point.

The face and beak of the snowy owl has feathers so thin and fine that they look like fur. This insulation can keep them warm as they spend most of their time in the arctic where temperatures can reach -80°F. I felt very fortunate to be able to walk up on one of our northlands most beautiful creatures."

   As we muddle through the last full week of January 2012, I still don't see any major winter storms or bone chilling temperatures in sight. Through today's date, the MSP Airport has only seen 3 sub-zero nights, which is roughly 12 times below normal. The January scorecard continues to come up short in wintry stats as we are still nearly 16" below normal snowfall this season even after the, official, 1.9" of snow that fell at the MSP Airport on Monday.
     Looking back at 2011 data, we've had above average temperatures since June! In fact, 4 out of the last 7 months made it into the top 10 warmest months in recorded history for their respective month. January 2012 hasn't spoiled the mild yet either. So far, we are nearly 7 degrees above average and I don't see any letting up in that department as the mercury flirts with the mid 30s over the next few days.
     Those who snubbed their shoveling duties on Monday will get a little help from Mother Nature as a little sun help the melting process this week. Other than a few scattered flurry chances in the extended forecast, our winter outlook still looks pretty tame. In the meantime, look up for the aurora again tonight!

Northern Lights

A massive solar flare on the sun on Sunday, the largest since 2005, sent charged particles towards the Earth. These particles starting hitting the Earth Tuesday morning and northern lights starting dancing all over the Arctic region and across Europe. The image below is from Spaceweather.com who got them from a sky watcher from Longyearbyen, Norway - take a look at his commentary below:

"All day I was anticipating a beautiful auroral display. In Longyearbyen, we certainly weren't disappointed. The display lasted for an solid hour before pushing south. I hope the rest of you enjoy the display as much as we did up here. We are too far North to see much more of the storm. 35mm Nikkor with Nikon D80 ISO-1000 f/1.8 6 sec"

Is It Still Active?

Look at the graph of Estimated Planetary K Index below from earlier Tuesday

(See the current version HERE)

When this graph is RED, things are active and there's a good chance the northern lights are dancing around the Arctic regions. Want to know more about the K Index? Check it out HERE:

Another good site for monitoring space weather conditions from NOAA HERE:

Solar Flare

This is amazing... take a look at the solar flare that caused the northern lights HERE: The video covers about 24 hours of activity

More on Monday's Tornadoes

The pictures and stories coming out of the southeast are bringing back bad memories. Take a look at a before and after picture in Clay, AL

Damage Out of Center Point, AL

This is a 360 degree view of some of the damage seen out of Center Point, AL

HERE's the link

National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL - Tornado Damage Surveys

The National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL has been working tirelessly since the event to conduct their damage surveys and have come up with at least 6 tornadoes, the strongest of which was an EF-3 with winds up to 150mph.

See the Damage Surveys HERE:

Tornado Controversy

"ABC News is responding to criticism from a meteorologist at an ABC affiliate in Alabama after a report on “World News” implied Monday’s tornadoes in the region touched down with no warning."

Read the full story HERE:

HERE's Another Story From "Capital Weather Gang"

According to @JustingNOAA on Twitter

"Average warning lead time for recent tornado event was 34.4 minutes"

What Do We Take Away From This & Similar Events?

1.) Having a NOAA Weather Radio is vital

2.) If a tornado warning has been issued for your area, get to the lowest floor of your home (basement if possible). If you don't have a basement, get to an interior room (bathroom is best, get in the bathtub and cover yourself with blankets/mattress/pillows) the idea is that you want to put as many walls between you and the tornado as possible!

3.) Many people are killed by flying debris... it may sound funny, but get a helmet (hockey, football, bike helmet). If you were to take a nasty blow to the head, the force may be muted by the added protection! Keep that helmet under your bed in case of overnight emergencies when and if your weather radio goes off!

Here are some other very important tornado safety tips from the SPC

Other tornado information HERE from the NSSL

More Severe Weather Safety Tips from NOAA

Tornadoes, Taxes Coincide With Most Stressful Days of 2011

This is an interesting study, which states that in 2011, tornadoes and taxes were some of the most stressful days out of the entire year.

HERE is that study:

Closer to Home

This is a different look at a longer range model, the GFS. It's giving us a few light chances of light snow over the next few days. Flurries is likely all we'll see through early Wednesday. Another chance of light snow, this time, maybe a light dusting and another light chance over the weekend. Again, it doesn't look like much.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week.

Don't forget to check me out on Twitter: @TNelsonWNTV

-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-

Chilly Tuesday; January Thaw Returns This Week

2012-01-23T19:40:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TUESDAY: Cold start. Lighter winds and more sun. High: 23. Winds: SW 5-10mph

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet, not as cold. Low: 15. Winds: SSW 5-10mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increase in clouds, turning breezy with a few light snow or flurries up north late. High: 32. Winds: WSW 10-20mph

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun and breezy. Another thaw. Low: 23. High: 33. Winds: W 10-20mph

FRIDAY: Still mild with some sun. Low: 19. High: 32. Winds: WNW 10-15

SATURDAY: Turning colder with more clouds and a few afternoon flurries up north. Low: 14. High: 24.

SUNDAY: Colder with a few passing flurries. Low: 7. High: 20.

MONDAY: Feels like January again, passing flurries: Low: 10. High: 24

One Last Look At Monday's Bad News On The Roads

I don't want to have to have you relive your bad Monday's commuting experience again, but here's one last look at what the roads looked like. Good thing we haven't too many days like the what my good friend and colleague, Aaron Shaffer, captured in the video HERE:

Thankfully Monday's weather event is in our rearview mirror. I'm sure after yesterday morning's commute, many are happy that we haven't had many of those kinds of daySs this winter season. A light coating of 'frizzle' on Sunday topped off with 1" to 3" of snow AM Monday was the perfect recipe for fender benders.

This storm was also responsible for another fairly rare tornadic outbreak across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. Not sure I can recall tracking supercell thunderstorm at 6AM in the middle of January. It's another reminder that although rare and not unprecedented in January, severe storms and tornadoes can happen at any time of the year and at any time of the day.

Technology and warnings systems are getting better, but it's up to you be aware of the situation. My wife probably wouldn't agree that hearing my 2 weather radios going off in the middle of the night is something that she wants to hear, but to be honest, it's one of the cheapest forms of life insurance one could get.

Today's cold start will give way to more sunshine and mild temps later this week. I'm still wondering when winter will really rear it's head.

Snowfall Reports From Monday

Here are the snowfall reports from Monday's snowfall event:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE JANUARY 22-23RD WINTER STORM...


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
 ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
  3.50   OWATONNA                 MN  STEELE           1006 AM
  3.50   SW ELLENDALE             MN  STEELE           0700 AM
  3.40   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0252 PM
  3.30   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           1047 AM
  3.20   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          1205 PM
                 MEASURED AT THE PRISON.
  3.00   GLENCOE                  MN  MCLEOD           1241 PM
  3.00   CUMBERLAND               WI  BARRON           0957 AM
  3.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0953 AM
  3.00   3 SE ALBERT LEA          MN  FREEBORN         0800 AM
  3.00   ZUMBROTA                 MN  GOODHUE          0700 AM
  2.80   HUTCHINSON               MN  MCLEOD           0655 AM
  2.80   E OWATONNA               MN  STEELE           0615 AM
  2.50   CLEAR LAKE               WI  POLK             0139 PM
  2.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0821 AM
  2.50   3 SE NEW ULM             MN  BROWN            0735 AM
  2.50   1 NNW SPRINGFIELD        MN  BROWN            0700 AM
  2.40   RICE                     MN  BENTON           1021 AM
  2.40   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             1012 AM
  2.30   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0112 PM
  2.10   MONTICELLO               MN  WRIGHT           1123 AM
  2.10   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0600 AM
                 MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY
  2.00   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           0259 PM
  2.00   8 NW MORA                MN  KANABEC          0252 PM
                 OCCURRED IN LAKE TOWNSHIP.
  2.00   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             1238 PM
                 REPORT RELAYED VIA WQOW.
  2.00   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           1204 PM
  2.00   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0956 AM
  2.00   3 SW CARLOS              MN  DOUGLAS          0851 AM
  2.00   MADELIA                  MN  WATONWAN         0811 AM
  2.00   1 SSW RIVER FALLS        WI  PIERCE           0700 AM
  2.00   6 NNW AMERY              WI  POLK             0700 AM
  2.00   3 SE LAKE ELMO           MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
  2.00   ELK RIVER                MN  SHERBURNE        0700 AM
  2.00   3 N KIMBALL              MN  STEARNS          0600 AM
  2.00   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0600 AM
  2.00   1 NNW COLD SPRING        MN  STEARNS          0600 AM
  1.90   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         1210 PM
  1.80   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           1123 AM
  1.80   ELK MOUND                WI  DUNN             0800 AM
  1.80   2 WNW LAKEVILLE          MN  DAKOTA           0700 AM
  1.50   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0805 AM
  1.50   1 S RICE LAKE            WI  BARRON           0802 AM
  1.50   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
  1.50   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0800 AM
  1.50   1 S BLUE EARTH           MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
  1.50   9 NNE BIRD ISLAND        MN  RENVILLE         0730 AM
  1.50   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0700 AM
  1.50   3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
  1.50   3 N BOYCEVILLE           WI  DUNN             0700 AM
  1.30   1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE     MN  FARIBAULT        0201 PM
  1.30   1 SW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0856 AM
  1.30   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0800 AM
  1.30   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0730 AM
  1.30   6 ESE DRESSER            WI  POLK             0700 AM
  1.20   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0201 PM
  1.20   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       1210 PM
                 MEASURED AT WQOW TV.
  1.20   NORTH MANKATO            MN  NICOLLET         0700 AM
  1.10   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         1204 PM
  1.10   ONAMIA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0800 AM
  1.10   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0700 AM
  1.10   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0600 AM
  1.00   BROOKLYN CENTER          MN  HENNEPIN         0203 PM
  1.00   VESTA                    MN  REDWOOD          0108 PM
  1.00   3 N WATERTOWN            MN  WRIGHT           0844 AM
  1.00   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
  1.00   1 ENE ST MICHAEL         MN  WRIGHT           0700 AM
  1.00   3 N CAMBRIDGE            MN  ISANTI           0700 AM
  1.00   HOLCOMBE                 WI  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
  1.00   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0630 AM
  0.80   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           1205 PM

Severe Storms & Tornadoes

This system also brought severe weather to parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. Unfortunately, some of the storms did prove to be fatal.

The picture below is from ThePinson ClayNews

Fairly Rare January Tornado Outbreak

Take a look at some of the tornado tracks from Sunday Night into Monday's event.

Disclaimer, the graphic title below should be be 2012, not 2011.

Bringing Back Old (Bad) Memories

This is a look at one of the tornado tracks on the north side of Birmingham, note how close it is to one of the tornado tracks during the BIG outbreak earlier last spring... scary!

Photo courtesy: Kevin Manross

More On The Tornadoes

Monday Slow Commute

2012-01-22T19:24:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

MONDAY: Slow and sloppy AM commute. Light snow tapers to flurries, (total accumulations of 1" to 2" possible). Turning windy and cooler. High: 28. Winds: WNW 10-20mph, gusts to 25mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing trend and colder. Low: 7. Winds: NW 5-15mph

TUESDAY: Cold start. Lighter winds and more sun. High: 23. Winds: WSW 5-10mph

WEDNESDAY: Increase in clouds, turning breezy with a few light snow or flurries up north late. Low: 14. High: 32. Winds: WSW 10-20mph

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, another thaw. Low: 21. High: 33. Winds: W 10-15mph

FRIDAY: More mild sun. Low: 20. High: 33.

SATURDAY: A few more clouds, turning colder. Low: 16. High: 26.

SUNDAY: Light snow chance up north late, a little colder. Low: 12. High: 23

We're finally out of the deep freeze. How did you fair? Temperatures around the state bottomed out in the teens and twenties below zero late last week, but it felt more like the 30s and 40s below zero. It was, by far, the coldest we've had all season long. Note that with the lack of deep snow on the ground, the cold air was muted just a bit and it certainly didn't last too long.

Quite a different story from last year, where through today's date, we had a little over 55" of snow. So far this year, we've only seen a little over a foot, which is almost 18" behind normal. With the way things are going, we could definitely wind up being in the top lightest snowfall seasons on record. Seems strange since last year we had the 4th snowiest season on record.

Either you love this winter season or you hate it, but regardless, we haven't had much wintry weather until recently. Today we'll continue that theme as a little light snow continues through the early part of the day. It could be enough to brush or shovel in some communities in east central Minnesota, but another January thaw looks likely later this week as temperatures bump up into the mid 30s.

Anvil From 35000ft.

Thanks Paul Douglas for this picture. It's the top of a thunderstorm over Georgia. It's actually from the same storm system that brought us snow on Friday across the Upper Midwest. More showers and thunderstorm are possible again early Monday across parts of the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. It appears that some of the storms will again be severe into early Monday.

Severe Threat Sunday Night into Monday

Take a look at the MODERATE risk of severe weather that was issued by the Storm Prediction Center from Sunday Night into early Monday. A MODERATE is pretty rare for January, in fact, The last time that Indiana was under a MODERATE threat in January was January 28, 2008, when a big damaging wind event swept over the state of KY and there was a deadly tornado in Posey Co, IN.

Sizeable Storm Affects The Eastern Half of the Nation

This is a fairly decent size storm that will affect the eastern half of the nation through the early week. Severe storms on it's southern flank and shovelable snow (in spots) on it's northern flank will continue through Monday.

Heavier Rain Potential

The heaviest moisture associated with this system appears to be in the convective zone across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, perhaps up to 2". Note the moisture on the northwestern side of this system, where it is cold enough for snow.

Colder Side of Things... Snow Amounts

Again, this system doesn't appear to have a lot of snow potential close to home. The heaviest still appears to be well north of us, but we could still see a light accumulations of 1" to 2" in some communities. This will likely keep you Monday commuting times slower than normal.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for all the counties shaded in purple for the potential of light snow accumulations, the heaviest of which will be during the early part of the day causing some issues for commuters. This could potentially be another morning where several fender benders have you white-knuckling your steering wheel on your way into work or school... plan accordingly.

Thinking Warm Thoughts

I want to thank a good friend of mine, Rich Koivisto, for the images below. He happened to go check out the Lake Havasu Balloon Festival over the weekend and snapped some pretty amazing shots!

Miami Sunrise

Thanks to Bay Scroggins for the picture below. Hard not to enjoy a sunrise like that, nice shot Bay!

Think Snow!

It's the Coolest Celebration on Earth and it starts this week. There are lots of wonderful things to do and see, check it out HERE:

Thanks for checking in, have a great week ahead! Don't forget to check me out on Twitter:

Follow me @TNelsonWNTV

Meteorologist Todd Nelson

Sunday's Wintry Weather

2012-01-21T21:39:00.000-06:00

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SUNDAY: Cloudy and warmer with light freezing drizzle possible early, turning to all snow late in the day. High: 32. Winds: SSE 5-15mph

SUNDAY NIGHT: Light snow possible, better chance of accumulations across central and northern Minnesota. Light accumulations of 1" or less expected in the Twin Cities. Turning windy and colder. Low: 20. Winds: WNW 10-20mph, gusts to 25mph

MONDAY: Light snow tapers to flurries, windy and cooler. High: 24. Winds: W 10-20mph, gusts to 25mph.

TUESDAY: Lighter winds and more sun. Low: 8. High: 22. Winds: WSW 5-10mph

WEDNESDAY: Increase in clouds, turning breezy with a few light snow or flurries.. Low: 14. High: 31. Winds: WSW 10-20mph

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, another thaw. Low: 20. High: 30. Winds: S 10-15mph

FRIDAY: More sun, still mild. Low: 18. High: 31.

SATURDAY: Clouds thicken, still warmer than average. Low: 15. High: 28.

Hot Water @ 20 Below Zero

Thanks to Paul Sundberg for this neat shot. The recent cold snap had many folks either embracing or hating it. Paul apparently embraced it as he threw hot water into 20 below zero air temps, you can see how the water turned into steam and ice crystals... pretty neat!

Read More About It HERE:

Thanks for the picture Paul, great stuff!

Check out Paul's Website HERE:

Winter Weather Headlines For Parts of the State

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the state through Sunday for sleet and snow accumulations that could add up to 3" to 5" - note how the advisories are either way west or north of the Twin Cities. It is important to note that some of this could be mixed in with a little freezing drizzle as well.

Sunday's Wintry Mix

Take a look at the storm system below causing all the commotion. It's actually quite a messy looking storm, but from wintry weather on it's northern flank to storms and severe weather on it's southern flank, this storm will have lingering effects into the early work week.

Closer To Home

This is a look at the potential weather conditions we could have through 7pm Sunday. Keep in mind that the heaviest precipitation will occur through the eastern portions of North and South Dakota and through northern Minnesota, near where the Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.

Hardly Plowable For the Twin Cities

Forecast models have been pretty consistent on keeping the heaviest snowfall amount across northern Minnesota, where amounts could be enough to shovel or plow. Amounts across the Twin Cities don't look all that impressive and will likely stay in the nuisance category or perhaps maybe enough for a little light brushing or shoveling through early Monday.

National Severe Threat

This same storm system will bring a chance of severe weather to parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys late Sunday into early Monday. Hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible here. Strange to think that there could again be tornadoes in January for some of the same areas that were dealing with severe weather last week.

Heavier Rain Down South

The image below shows the precipitation forecast through Monday evening. Showers and thunderstorm could bring about an inch or more of rainfall to places that could see strong to severe storms into early Monday. Note also the higher amounts across the West Coast. These are places that continue to get pounded with Pacific Moisture. There have been a number of reports of several feet of snow piling up since last week and also reports of several inches of rain leading to flooding along the coastal locations. They're not quite out of the woods yet.

Sun Valley, ID After Fresh Snow

As the ski and snowboard hipsters say: "Look at all that fresh pow!"

Laurelwood, Oregon

Thanks to Mike Swaja for the picture below. Heavy rain falling in Oregon shows some of the flooding that has taken place.

Subaru powered volkswagen powering thru some high water (Near intersection of Springhill rd & Laurelwood rd. Laurelwood, Oregon)

Pond Hockey Championship

This is more my style! Lake Nokomis was buzzing with people this weekend for the Pond Hockey Championship. It was a very COLD start on Saturday, but the rest of the weekend was pretty mild considering how cold it was at the end of last week.

The picture below is from Twitter: @USPondHockey a good follow if you're aren't following already!

Here's a story from StarTribune

Saturday Was Hockey Day In Minnesota

One of my favorite days out of the entire year is #HockeyDayInMinnesota. Nearly 16 hours of hockey on FoxSportsNorth from high school to college to pro... sure to those who could give a hoot about hockey, it might sound a little excessive, but to those with strong hockey roots, it's almost as good as a holiday! Very touching, this year's hockey day in Minnesota was dedicated to Jack Jablonski.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend!

Don't forget to check me out on Twitter:

@TNelsonWNTV

Meteorologist Todd Nelson

Thaw Brewing Next Week (why do so many TV meteorologists believe that climate change is a hoax?)

2012-01-20T22:09:00.000-06:00

12 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Friday.
24 F. average high for January 20.
9 F. high temperature one year ago, on January 20, 2011.
1.1" snow fell at MSP International Airport Friday.

2.2" snow so far in January, 2012
10.8" had fallen as of January 20, 2011.

.13" liquid precipitation predicted for Sunday (NAM). With surface temperatures close to 30 F. and a snow/rain ratio closer to 10/1 that may translate into an inch of slush Sunday PM hours.

500+ traffic accidents across Minnesota Friday, mostly minor fender-benders.

Why So Icy Friday? "Wheel-Track Glazing". Sometime referred to as "black ice", the more accurate explanation is wheel-track glazing, caused when warm tires trap ground-level snow and cause temporary melting, and then refreezing. As more vehicles travel over the same wheel tracks a glaze of ice forms, which can become treacherous. Such was the case Friday statewide. Wheel-track glazing is more of an issue at 5-10 F, than 25 F, when MnDOT chemicals melt snow much faster and more efficiently. Photo of a St. Louis Park fender-bender above courtesy of Lori Ryan.

-53 F. wind chill at Grand Marais Thursday morning.

6 Minnesota towns saw -26 F. Thursday morning, coldest in the USA. -27 reported at Cook Friday morning.

7.1" snow at Waterloo, Iowa Friday, a new 24 hour snowfall record.
7.1" snow at Midway Airport in Chicago as of 7:35 pm Friday. Source: Tom Skilling, WGN-TV.

How Much Snow Fell? Most of the south metro picked up 1-2" snow, under 1" far north metro, with as much as 4-5" snow near the Iowa border. More from the National Weather Service here.

550 tornado deaths across the USA in 2011, more than the previous 10 years combined.

2011: 35th year in a row of warmer than average temperatures, worldwide. Source: NOAA.

2011: average global temperature was 57.9 F. That's .9 F warmer than average. Last year was the 11th warmest year on record, in spite of a moderate La Nina cooling phase of the Pacific, warmer than any year of the 20th century, except for 1998. Source: NOAA.

63% of U.S. TV meteorologists think climate change is due to "natural causes".
27% of U.S. TV meteorologists think global warming is a "scam".

"The issue of climate change denial among television weather reporters has gained increasing attention of late, especially with the release of a national study by George Mason University in March 2010. The study found that 63% of T.V. meteorologists think climate change is due to natural causes, and a full 27% think global warming is a scam."

- from a post below about ongoing climate change denial among some TV meteorologists around the USA.

"I was so cold the other day, I almost got married." - Shelley Winters.

"We've got the most prosperous culture in human history and we've also got the biggest spiritual hole in human history." - Mark Victor Hansen

Coldest Readings Of Winter So Far. Dr. Mark Seeley has more interesting facts and figures about this week's arctic blast in his weekly Minnesota WeatherTalk blog: "Some of the National Weather Service Offices issued Extreme Cold Warnings for parts of Minnesota this past Wednesday and Thursday (Jan 18-19) as a result of an arctic air mass advancing across the state and associated strong winds that produced wind chill values from -35 to -40 F. In fact overnight near Grand Marais a katabatic wind (drainage wind from higher elevation) peaked at 59 mph. These high winds made for some extreme overnight and early morning wind chill (WC) values along the north shore of Lake Superior with WC of -50 degrees F at Isabella, -51 degrees F near Grand Portage, and -53 degrees F near Grand Marais. On Thursday morning Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states for the 3rd time this month with a low of -26 degrees F at Hallock, Park Rapids, Fosston, Babbitt, Orr, and Crane Lake. And again on Friday morning, Cook reported -27 degrees F (same as Churchill, Manitoba along the shores of Hudson Bay!)."

The Windy (Snowy) City. Chicago picked up 4-8" of snow Friday....from a slow-moving, unusually moist Alberta Clipper. "A snow plow clears the road as snow falls in Chicago on Friday, Jan. 20, 2012. Hundreds of flights were canceled at O'Hare International and Midway airports today as a snowstorm moved into the Chicago area with the threat of dumping more than 6 inches of snow. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)."

Models: Big Discrepencies On Sunday. Although odds favor less than an inch or two Sunday into Monday morning, a few models are suggesting as much as 3-4" in the metro. My hunch: a much better chance of "plowable" snowfall amounts north of the metro, from St. Cloud to Little Falls, Brainerd and Duluth, where some 3-6" amounts can't be ruled out. And keep in mind surface temperatures should be in the mid 20s to near 30, meaning many freeways and interstates may remain wet/slushy.

Sunday-Monday Slush Event. The latest NAM model shows some 3-4"+ snowfall amounts over the northern third of Minnesota, an inch or two for the metro, maybe 3" far northern suburbs.

Sunday Slush? The WRF model brings another system into Minnesota Sunday, but temperatures should be 15-20 degrees warmer than they were on Friday, mid 20s to near 30, meaning a wet, slushy snow. The greatest potential for a few inches of accumulation: central and northern Minnesota.

January 20 Snow Depth. According to NOAA's NOHRSC division snow is on the ground over roughly the northern third of the USA, up from 18% in early January.

Early February: Not As Cold. Earlier GFS runs were hinting at 2-3 days of subzero weather; the latest run suggests 1 day of single digits and teens around January 31, followed by a return to 20s and 30s the first week of February.

Early February: Moderately Cold, Parade of Clippers. As long as winds aloft continue to howl from the west, or northwest, it's going to be tough getting significant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Minnesota to fuel a real storm. Expect a family of clippers from late January into the first week of February, each one capable of a nuisance snowfall, anywhere from a coating to an inch or two. 500mb map above (GFS) valid February 5, courtesy of NOAA.

Chicago Plow-Tracker. This is pretty cool, in a geeky/snowy kind of way. The City of Chicago has a cutting edge web site that allows residents to see where all the snow plows are, in real-time. Why don't Minneapolis and St. Paul have a similar tool? "The Department is currently implementing a 100% Snow Program which consists of 275 snow plows, 26 smaller four wheel drive plows. 60 garbage trucks equipped with quick-hitch plows have also been deployed to assist with snow removal, but are not displayed on the map. Trucks will be deployed to residential streets when the main routes are clear. Drivers from the Department of Transportation and Department of Water Management are available to supplement the Department of Streets and Sanitation workforce. All 19 salt stations are open. Here’s a behind-the-scenes video from Snow Command and a closer look at the technology that assists in decision making."

February Outlook From CPC. The last week of January should end on a relatively mild note, highs in the 20s and 30s, about 5-10 degrees above average. Although a cool-down is possible in early February, CPC (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) is forecasting a continued bias toward warmer, drier weather for much of the eastern 2/3rd's of America into February.

Toward Twister Forecasting: Scientists Make Progress In Assessing Tornado Seasons. An interesting story from Science Daily: "Meteorologists can see a busy hurricane season brewing months ahead, but until now there has been no such crystal ball for tornadoes, which are much smaller and more volatile. This information gap took on new urgency after tornadoes in 2011 killed more than 550 people, more than in the previous 10 years combined, including a devastating outbreak in April that racked up $5 billion in insured losses. Now, a new study of short-term climate trends offers the first framework for predicting tornado activity up to a month out with current technology, and possibly further out as climate models improve, giving communities a chance to plan."

Calm In The Eye Of The Storm Center. The Miami Herald has an article focusing on the career of Bill Read, who is retiring as Director of the National Hurricane Center: "Bring up the word legacy to Bill Read and he quickly gets uncomfortable. Read, who last week announced he is retiring after four steady years at the helm of the National Hurricane Center, shakes his head and deflects credit to colleagues whose faces only rarely showed up on The Weather Channel. “Let’s face it, the real work is done by the 50 other people here,’’ he said Thursday during a round of media interviews to discussion his decision to leave. “I’m just the mouthpiece.’’ Whether he likes it or not, the 62-year-old Read does leave a legacy. His self-effacing style helped calm turbulent waters at the center." Photo courtesy of NOAA News.

NASA Satellite Sees Birth Of Tropical Storm Ethel, Now Threatening Rodriguez (Indian Ocean). NASA reports: "NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Storm Ethel on January 19, 2012 after she was born in the Southern Indian Ocean. The island of Rodrigues is now under Tropical Cyclone Warnings as Ethel approaches and strengthens. When Aqua passed over newborn Ethel at 09:30 UTC (4:30 a.m. EST) on Jan. 19, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard Aqua captured a visible image of the storm, and showed that it had good circulation. The strongest storms appear to be around the center and northwest of center. Bands of thunderstorms from the east-southeast appear to spiral into Ethel's center on the MODIS satellite imagery. "

L.A. Paper Calls Seattle "Snow Wimps" As SoCal Warns About 1/3" Rain. The "Partly to Mostly Cloudy Blog" at KOMOnews.com has news of a meteorological smack-down: "There is a saying about people in glass houses... Amidst one of the worst winter storms to strike the greater Seattle area in decades, the Los Angeles Times put out a blog chastising Seattle citizens' reaction to snow, with this actual headline: "Snow wimps: Seattle is shut down by first real snow of the season." Yes, you read that correctly. Los Angeles. Which has about as much authority in chastising Seattle about snow reaction as it does about the state of our National Football League franchise."

"Nobody really cares if you're miserable, so you might as well be happy." - Cynthia Nelms

Camcorder Device Allows For Live, Computer Free Video Streaming. Dear Santa...I've been a good boy this year. Can you put one of these in my stocking? Gizmag.com has the details: "Japanese electronics manufacturer Cerevo might already be known to some readers for its Cerevo Camera Live. Released in May of 2010, the video camera is able to stream content live to Ustream, without the need of a linked computer. That's all very well and good, but what about all of us with other makes and models of video cameras who want to "go live"? Cerevo is now addressing them with its Live Shell module. The device hooks up to an existing camera, then sends its video and audio output directly to Ustream."

Pond Hockey At Lake Nokomis. Here's a video clip from the Star Tribune: "Pond hockey lovers from around the world are gathering at Lake Nokomis this weekend."

A "Cold Snow". As we're discovering (the hard way), snow falling at 8 degrees F. is far more dangerous than snow falling at 25 or 30, when MnDOT chemicals can keep many roads wet or slushy. Wheel-track glazing is a real issue at temperatures colder than approximately 15 F. Highs ranged from 5 at International Falls to 11 at St. Cloud, 12 in the Twin Cities and 15 at Grand Marais, where winds were blowing off of Lake Superior (water temperatures close to 36 F keep temperatures warmer than they would be otherwise). Nearly 3" new snow fell on Rochester.

"Age is a question of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it doesn't matter." - Leroy "Satchel" Paige. Photo credit.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Subzero start. Partly sunny. Better travel day of the weekend. WInds: S 10-15. High: 15

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, not as cold. Low: 19

SUNDAY: Milder, chance of wet snow developing. Potential for a couple inches, more over central/northern MN. Low: 19. High: 31

MONDAY: Light snow tapers to flurries, windy and cooler. Low: 16. High: 23

TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, seasonably cool. Low: 8. High: 25

WEDNESDAY: Light snow or flurries. Probably no big deal. Low: 16. High: near 30

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, another thaw. Low: 22. High: 33

FRIDAY: Slow clearing, turning cooler. Low: 20. High: 26

* Highs should reach the 30s the last weekend of January.

Less Numb

"It's cold out folks. Bonecrushing cold. The kind of cold which will wrench the spirit out of a young man, or forge it into steel." I love that blurb from "Northern Exposure". We all suffered from a little northern exposure this past week, the Cold Weather Tax that every hardy, hard-working Minnesotan has to pay for priveledge of living in one of the most amazing spots on Earth. Not that I'm biased or anything.

I may regret saying this out loud, but I still suspect last Thursday was the coldest of the winter, and a wimpy winter at that. -11 F. in the metro Thursday; a wind chill of -53 at Grand Marais. Ouch. Yep, that's "cold enough for me".

One of the many things I love about living here is how good 20 (above) feels after an arctic fling. Freezing will feel amazingly good by the middle of next week.

Shocking news: no big storms are brewing. La Nina has locked jet stream winds in a Pacific flow; Gulf moisture can't reach Minnesota. The next clipper arrives Sunday/Monday with 1-3" of slushy snow; roads in better shape than Friday, when we experienced single-digit temperatures. That said, some models are hinting at more than 3-4" for parts of central and northern Minnesota Sunday into Monday morning. Stay tuned.

CPC is predicting a milder than average February, more evidence of our incredible shrinking winters.

Climate Stories....

Campaign Urges AMS (American Meteorological Society) To Get Tougher On Climate Change. More details about the campaign and web site (forecastthefacts.org): "San Francisco, CA – A new campaign, Forecast the Facts (www.forecastthefacts.org), launches Sunday to pressure TV meteorologists to inform their viewers about climate change. The launch coincides with the kick-off of the American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) annual meeting in New Orleans, LA. The campaign will deliver thousands of petition signatures that demand the AMS pass a strong statement on climate change. The current statement—drafted in 2007—is set to expire on Feb1. In the five years since, scientific consensus about climate change has grown even stronger, and the Forecast the Facts campaign is urging the AMS to reflect that consensus in their new information statement. The new statement, drafted by a panel of experts, requires approval by the 21-member AMS Council, which convenes on Sunday, January 22 at their annual meeting. The issue of climate change denial among television weather reporters has gained increasing attention of late, especially with the release of a national study by George Mason University in March 2010. The study found that 63% of T.V. meteorologists think climate change is due to natural causes, and a full 27% think global warming is a scam."

"Forecast The Facts" Exposes America's Climate-Denier TV Weathermen. More from Think Progress: "America’s television meteorologists are the primary source of climate information for most Americans, and are second only to scientists — who have much less access to the general public — in the level of trust they are given. Yet more than half of TV weather reporters don’t believe in human-induced climate change, even as our poisoned weather grows more extreme."

* I'm not advocating a meteorological witch-hunt, but there needs to be some accountability when it comes to scientific inaccuracies and half-truths. Local TV meteorologists, like it or not, are the local science authorities in their markets, and should be accurately representing the state of science, including climate science. I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation. I know (and respect) many of the people quoted for the Think Progress story above. They're at the top of their game, some of the best meteorologists in the nation, specializing in weather prediction looking out days, even weeks.
But when it comes to the long (long) range outlook (years and decades) I defer to climate scientists, 97.4% of whom have produced convincing, compelling scientific evidence that a). the atmosphere is warming, and b). much of that warming is probably tied to a nearly 40% increase in greenhouse gases. Actions have consequences. Why is that such a hard concept for some people to grasp? It's far easier to ignore the topic (because it makes some people uncomfortable), or believe in conspiracy theories ("Al Gore is getting rich off this, those money-grubbing climate scientists are just in it for the money, the grants!"). Yes, because I've seen so many climate scientists driving shiny new Porsches and Ferraris to their beachside villas. Of course.

Look, these TV meteorologists aren't bad people, they're not evil. Confused...misguided? Maybe. I was skeptical in the late 80s when Dr. James Hansen was testifying before Congress about this issue. But during the 1990s I began to see noticeable changes, shifts in the weather patterns I was tracking here in Minnesota. Something had changed, the patterns had shifted - and climate change was the most likely explanation. It was no overnight epiphany, and it had nothing to do with Al Gore. I don't pretend to have the answers, but when it comes to the climate, I defer to the experts, the PhD specialists who've been studying this subject their entire careers. It's sad that climate change has become a political football, an ideological litmus test ("you can't be a good conservative if you believe what the climate scientists are saying.") Really?

People can change, and faced with a growing mountain of evidence, I suspect many professional TV meteorologists will gradually change their minds in the coming years and realize that the climate scientists are probably correct. That's my long-range forecast.

"All truth goes through three stages. First it is ridiculed. Then it is violently opposed. Finally it is accepted as self-evident." - Schoepenhouer

Global Warming And Severe Weather: Is There A Link? The story from Huffington Post: "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that:

the number of severe weather events in the United States costing a minimum of $1 billion increased from about 1.2 per year in the early 1980s to about 5 in the 2000s, and
2011 saw a record high of 14 such events.

A summary appearing in last week's edition of Nature (based on data collated by the reinsurance company Munich Re) showed that over the past 30 years the number of weather-related severe events has been on the rise."

Humans Are By Far The Dominent Cause Of Global Warming: A Comprehensive Review Of The Science. The story from ThinkProgress and Skeptical Science: "At Skeptical Science, we have several recent studies which have used a number of diverse approaches to tease out the contributions of various natural and human effects to global warming. Here we will review the results of these various studies, and a few others which we have not previously examined, to see what the scientific literature and data have to say about exactly what is causing global warming. All of these studies, using a wide range of independent methods, provide multiple lines of evidence that humans are the dominant cause of global warming over the past century, and especially over the past 50 to 65 years."

Where The Birds Are: Remapping For A Warmer Future. The story from The Atlantic: "On a recent winter morning, shortly after sunrise, Catholic University awoke to a leaden silence, punctured occasionally by the rattle of suitcases rolled across the tawny-green campus by students heading home for the holidays. The only people who seemed intent on staying behind were roaming the D.C. school with quiet purpose, binoculars hanging heavily from their necks and faces buried in upturned collars. Their leader, 69-year-old Anne Anderson, had given them straightforward instructions: Slowly and methodically sweep your gaze up the length of every tree, leaving no piece of bark unscanned for movement. When you finally spot a bird, call out cues so that the rest of the group can confirm the sighting (e.g., "Male cardinal, 3 o'clock, two hands up"). Every bird must be accounted for: That run-of-the-mill mockingbird over there, insouciantly prodding something on the pavement, represents a data point -- a small one, yes -- that may have scientific implications of global magnitude."

U.S. Drafts Climate Change Road Map. UPI has the latest: "WASHINGTON, Jan. 20 (UPI) -- The U.S. government has published its first draft of a national strategy that provides a road map for authorities responding to climate change. U.S. Interior Department Deputy Secretary David Hayes said rising sea levels, warming temperatures and other climate issues are having an effect on everything from wildlife to natural resources. "The impacts of climate change are already here and those who manage our landscapes are already dealing with them," he said in a statement. The strategy, available for public comment through March, outlines guidelines for local, state and federal agencies to tackle climate issues tied to everything from migration patterns to rising sea levels and invasive species."

U.S. Education Advocates Tackle Climate Change Skeptics. The New Scientist reports: "A NEW front has opened in the battle over US school science curricula. After decades of fighting to keep creationism out of the classroom, US science education advocates are steeling themselves to face a new foe: climate change sceptics. Over the past few years, several US states and local school boards have introduced measures that would mean teachers must include the views of those who are sceptical of a human influence on climate change in science lessons."

Scientists: Agriculture Major Player In Climate Change. The Voice of America has the story: "A team of scientists is urging that agriculture be a top priority in climate change negotiations, saying it’s vital for global food security and for reducing carbon emissions. The recommendations appear in the January 20th issue of Science magazine. The international team was led by Sir John Beddington, Britain’s chief scientific advisor. The article, What Next for Agriculture After Durban, follows the latest U.N. climate conference in December. It says negotiations there made “incremental progress” in helping farmers adapt to climate change while reducing agriculture’s contribution to global warming."

Couple Inches Today (black ice possible, 30s return late next week)

2012-01-19T22:18:00.001-06:00

-11 F. low in the cities Thursday morning, coldest since February 10, 2011, when the low was -11 F.

4 F. high on Thursday.
24 F. average high for January 19, up one degree since yesterday!
13 F. high temperature a year ago, January 19, 2011.

1-3" powdery snow possible today. Single digit temperatures + traffic may create a thin layer of treacherous black ice.
2.1" predicted for MSP today (Bufkit).

Mid/upper 30s possible by the end of next week in the Twin Cities metro; 40 is not out of the question close to home.

Coldest In The Lower 48. 5 different Minnesota towns came in at -26 Thursday morning, coldest in the lower 48 states.

2011: 10th warmest year worldwide. Warmest La Nina year on record. Capital Weather Gang has details below.

Boat Show going on at the Minneapolis Convention Center through Sunday. Can spring be far behind? You 'betcha!

"Men can bear all things except good days." - Dutch Proverb

Thursday Morning Wind Chills:
-53 F. Grand Marais
-41 F. Brainerd

* photo above courtesy of the AP.

Thursday Morning Lows. In spite of a lack of snowcover, temperatures fell to double-digit negative numbers early Thursday, as cold as -13 at Lakeville and -16 at Cambridge, Princeton and St. Cloud. More from MesoWest here.

Tougher Travel South of MSP. The farther south you drive on I-35 the worse travel conditions will be today. The National Weather Service has posted Winter Weather Advisories for southern Minnesota, Winter Storm Warnings just south of the Iowa border.

Snow Potential. Although no major storms are brewing (a west/northwest wind flow aloft will limit how much moisture can surge into Minnesota anytime soon) we could see 2" today, another inch or 2 Sunday, maybe a Tuesday coating. LIke forecasting weather in Wichita.

Plowable Far Southern Minnesota. The latest NAM model prints out some 3-6" amounts over far southern Minnesota, south of Mankato, from Albert Lea to La Crosse. Some 8" amounts are predicted for northeastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin - metro Chicago may pick up 3-6". O 'Hare and Midway will be a mess later today.

12 nights colder than -40 F. at Fairbanks, Alaska so far in January, a new record. Details below.
Photo credit above: "In this Monday, Jan. 16, 2012 photo, a family skates across Mendenhall Lake in Juneau, Alaska. Temperatures are forecast in the single digits all week. (AP Photo/The Juneau Empire, Michael Penn)."

Black Ice Alert. When it's this cold snow is powdery, fluffy - plenty of air between the flakes. It also means that the chemical mix put down by MnDOT plows is far more inefficient - it's much harder melting snow/ice at 10 F. than 25 F. Repeated traffic on area highways can compress (squish) the snow into a thin film of glaze ice, the "black ice" we all know and dread. I suspect we'll wind up with a couple inches of powder today, and roads may be very icy out there.

MSP Missed An All-Time Record By ONE MINUTE! The mercury at MSP International dipped blow zero at 11:59 pm Wednesday night, meaning we tied a record for the latest subzero on record (old record is January 18, 2002). More from the local NWS office:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHANHASSEN MN
100 AM CST THU JAN 19 2012

...THE RECORD LATEST BELOW ZERO READING TIED IN MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL...

AT ONE MINUTE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED BELOW ZERO AT
THE TWIN CITIES MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL AIRPORT.

THIS IS THE FIRST RECORDED BELOW ZERO READING THIS WINTER IN THE TWIN
CITIES.

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A WINTER WITHOUT A BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE READING
IN THE TWIN CITIES.

THIS TIES THE RECORD LATEST BELOW ZERO READING...
FIRST SET ON JANUARY 18 1889...AND TIED JANUARY 18 2002.

What Month Is This Again? The current snowfall map sure doesn't look like January 20. 2" on the ground in the Duluth area, only 10" over the Minnesota Arrowhead? Counties in southeastern Minnesota are reporting 1-3" amounts - we'll add to that today. NOAA has snowfall reports for the USA, state-by-state, here.

"Ice Mounds". Not sure I've ever seen this phenomenon before. My friend, Pete Schenck, who lives up in Herbster, Wisconsin (on Lake Superor), explains: "Attached is a photo I shot this morning outside our back door. We're used to seeing these ice "volcanoes" on shore when the wind and waves coincide and actually squire water up and out through a small opening. The water then freezes on top and the "ice volcano" grows. Never before have we seen these off our shoreline."

Longest Stretch Of 40 Below Nights On Record For Fairbanks, Alaska. You think we're cold? 12 nights below -40 F. in Fairbanks so far in January. More details from the Fairbanks office of the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 AM AKST WED JAN 18 2012

...THE 40 BELOW TEMPERATURES KEEP ON COMING AT FAIRBANKS...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAS BEEN 43 BELOW. THIS IS THE 12TH DAY THIS MONTH WITH A
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 BELOW OR LOWER AT THE FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THIS IS NOW THE GREATEST NUMBER OF 40 BELOW DAYS DURING
THE MONTH OF JANUARY SINCE THE 1989 COLD SNAP WHEN THERE WERE 14.
JANUARY 1971 STILL HOLDS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST 40 BELOW DAYS IN
JANUARY WITH 21.

TODAY IS THE 6TH DAY IN A ROW WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 40 BELOW
OR COLDER. IT IS LONGEST CONSECUTIVE STRETCH OF 40 BELOW DAYS
SINCE THE COLD SNAP OF LATE DECEMBER 2008 INTO JANUARY 2009 THAT
PRODUCED 15 DAYS IN A ROW OF 40 BELOW COLD.

Don't Even Try To Plow This Road. This may be my favorite new photograph - a city street that was magically transformed into a sledding hill in Seattle. More details: "Sledders, skiers, snowboarders and pedestrians take over a snow-covered street in the Queen Anne neighborhood of Seattle Wednesday, Jan. 18, 2012. As snow started falling on Seattle Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service scaled back the amount expected in western Washington but said it would still be a significant event. The total in the city would likely be 3 to 6 inches, meteorologist Dustin Guy says. More is likely in southwest Washington, 4 to 8 inches, while less is expected in the northwest interior, 1 to 2 inches. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)."

State of Emergency: Washington State. After heavy snow much of Washington experienced freezing rain, glaze ice, knocking out power to tens of thousands, causing hundreds of accidents. The National Guard may have to be called out to help.

Photo credit above: "Travis Barrett leans back as a chunk of tree springs upward after his cut with an electric chainsaw, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012 in Seattle. An ice storm followed heavy snow in western Washington, bringing down trees that killed one person and knocked out power for about 100,000 homes while sending cars and trucks spinning out of control. (AP Photo/The Seattle Times, Steve Ringman)."

Serious Snowfall Amounts. Thanks to Chad Merrill at Earth Networks for passing this along. 71" snow? More information and snowfall amounts (state by state) from the National Weather Service here.

...OREGON...

MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0 ESTIMATED 50-55

TIMBERLANE 45.0 ESTIMATED 45-55

BLAZED ALDER 35.0 ESTIMATED

MOUNT HOOD TEST 35.0 ESTIMATED 35-40

GOVERNMENT CAMP 34.0

BEAR GRASS 32.0 ESTIMATED 32-36

NORTH FORK 31.0

CLACKAMAS LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED

CLEAR LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED

DALY LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED

GREENPOINT 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35

LITTLE MEADOWS 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35

MUD RIDGE 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35

...WASHINGTON...

JUNE LAKE 31.0

SURPRISE LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED

LEAVENWORTH 12.4 N 26.5

PLAIN 0.8 NW 26.0

WINLOCK 0.5 W 25.4

CALAMITY 25.0 ESTIMATED

LONE PINE 25.0 ESTIMATED 25-30

OLYMPIA 6.5 SW 25.0

PEPPER CREEK 25.0 ESTIMATED

SPENCER MEADOW 25.0 ESTIMATED

SWIFT CREEK 25.0 ESTIMATED 25-30

MINERAL 0.2 S 22.7

The Wild, Wild West. Check out all the National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories over the western third of America; the weather stuck in a pattern that favors (major) storms sweeping inland from the Pacific Ocean.

February 4: "Modified Pacific Flow". Although another noticeable cool-down is likely during the first week of February, right now it doesn't look nearly as cold as what we just went through. By early February winds aloft (500mb GFS forecast above is for February 4) are still howling from British Columbia, not the Yukon or Arctic Circle. This should mean seasonably cold weather; temperatures fairly close to average.

F-F-F February. After a relatively mild last week of January (highs consistently in the 30s) the GFS pulls much colder air into town the first few days of February, maybe a couple of days of single digit highs and 2-4 nights below zero. No, it's way too early to write off the Winter of 2012.

Extreme Weather 2011. Warmest La Nina Year On Record, Around 10th Warmest Overall. The Washington Post Capital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow has a good summary of a crazy year, weatherwise: "Cooler than average waters in the equatorial Pacific, symptomatic of a moderately strong La Nina pattern, stopped 2011 from besting 2010’s El Nino-fueled near-record global warmth. But of the La Nina years on record, 2011 ranked as the warmest according to data from NOAA and NASA. Considering all years in records dating back to 1880, 2011 was about the 10th warmest year the two agencies reported today. Both agencies calculated 2011’s global average temperature to be 0.92 F above average. This placed 2011 as 9th warmest overall in NASA’s record compared to a tie for 11th warmest in NOAA’s. " Image above courtesy of NOAA and the Capital Weather Gang.

Two More Billion Dollar Disasters. NOAA is now reporting a total of 14 separate billion dollar weather disasters last year, shattering the old record of 9 set in 2008. The New York Times reports: "The count of billion-dollar weather disasters for 2011 has taken another jump. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, still adding up the costs of the extreme weather events that plagued the country last year, announced on Thursday that two more had surpassed the $1 billion mark, for a total of 14. And the agency is still counting. The latest additions were Tropical Storm Lee, in early September, and a severe weather outbreak in the Rockies and Midwest from July 10 to 14. Lee hit the Gulf Coast and caused wind and flood damage across a broad swath of the country, with some of the worst flooding in New York and Pennsylvania. The Rockies outbreak featured wind, hail and floods, notably in Colorado and Wyoming." Image of Tropical Storm Lee above courtesy of NASA.

NOAA: 2011 A Year Of Climate Extremes In The United States. NOAA reports: "According to NOAA scientists, 2011 was a record-breaking year for climate extremes, as much of the United States faced historic levels of heat, precipitation, flooding and severe weather, while La Niña events at both ends of the year impacted weather patterns at home and around the world. NOAA’s annual analysis of U.S. and global conditions, conducted by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, reports that the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 53.8 degrees F, 1.0 degree F above the 20th century average, making it the 23rd warmest year on record. Precipitation across the nation averaged near normal, masking record-breaking extremes in both drought and precipitation."

America The Storm-Battered. More details from NOAA: "From extreme drought, heat waves and floods to unprecedented tornado outbreaks, hurricanes, wildfires and winter storms, a record 14 weather and climate disasters in 2011 each caused $1 billion or more in damages — and most regrettably, loss of human lives and property. "

* NOAA has a great summary (pdf) of 2011's extremes here.

* A NOAA pdf of all the cities that set new records for wettest/driest years on record is here.

EF-2 Tornado Confirmed In Simpson County During Tuesday's Storms. Lex18.com has the latest: "The National Weather Service confirmed Wednesday that an EF-2 tornado destroyed a home and did other damage in Simpson County during Tuesday's severe storms. Officials say the tornado, which was on the ground for nine miles and actually moved into Allen County before dissipating, had top winds of 120 MPH."

Saharan "Dust Plumes". Here's a post from NASA's Earth Observatory: "Dust plumes blew across the western Sahara Desert on January 18, 2012. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite took this picture the same day. Arising from discrete source points, the dust blows from northeast to southwest. Sand seas straddle the Mauritania-Algeria border, and many of the dust plumes arise in that region. In the southwest, over Mauritania, the plumes coalesce into a large mass of dust spanning more than 200 kilometers. Thinner plumes blow westward over Western Sahara toward the Atlantic coast.

NASA images courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC.

Remembering An Historic Cold Front For South Florida. On January 19, 1977 Miami, Florida picked up snow, enough to build a respectable snowman in Miami Beach! Newspaper front page image above courtesy of Charles Trainor at the Miami Herald.

You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up. A Swiss passenger on the Costa Concordia, who was eating dinner in the ship's restaurant, reports that at the exact momen when the cruise ship hit the rocks, the piped-in music playing onboard was Celine Dion, singing "My Heart Will Go On", the title song from the movie Titanic. Source: German Tagesschau.

First Tentative Sign Of Spring? OK, it's a stretch, but play along. The Boat Show is on at the Minneapolis Convention Center through Sunday. For more details click here.

Thanks to funnychix.com for sharing this....

"In order to keep a true perspective of one's importance, everyone should have a dog that will worship him and a cat that will ignore him." - Dereke Bruce.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Periods of light snow 1-3" possible. Best chance of 3" far southern suburbs (2-5" far southern Minnesota). Risk of black ice. Winds: SE 3-8. High: near 10

FRIDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers to flurries - still slippery in spots. Low: -1

SATURDAY: Some sun, better travel day of the weekend. High: 15

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy and milder. Periods of wet snow possible, maybe an inch or two close to home (more northern and western MN). Low: 11. High: 27

MONDAY: Flurries taper, clouds linger. Low: 17. High: 27

TUESDAY: AM sun, PM flurries possible, seasonably cool. Low: 6. High: 23

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, a bit milder. Low: 12. High: near 30

THURSDAY: Stale clouds, few flakes in the air. Low: 14. High: 34

Black Ice Alert

Not all snow events are created equal. We all tend to (rightfully) fixate on "how many inches?" - when the more relevant question should be "how cold will it be as the snow falls?" Who care? MnDOT chemicals work best when the air temperature is in the 20s; major freeways tend to stay wet. But when it's this cold (single digits) traffic can compress snow into a thin film of glaze ice, the "black ice" that can leave humbled SUV drivers in the nearest ditch. Be careful out there today; leave extra time for your commute. Snowfall amounts will range from 1-3 inches (heaviest amounts south metro).

Expect one more night near zero, followed by a fairly quick warming trend - 20s on Sunday will feel like a Club Med Vacation!

A Pacific flow returns for much of next week, meaning highs near 30 by late week. 40 isn't out of the question the last weekend of January. In spite of The Boat Show underway in Minneapolis, spring is NOT right around the corner. A mild end to January gives way to yet another arctic swipe the first week of February.

Storms? A little slush is possible Sunday (more for north/west Minnesota), but snow will fall in dribs and drabs the next 2 weeks. Status quo right?

"Politicians and diapers should be changed frequently and all for the same rason." - Jose Maria de Exa de Queiroz

Climate Stories....

Did Global Warming Destroy My Hometown? A uniquely personal story from Popular Science: "The tornado that destroyed my hometown was born in an otherwise unremarkable atmospheric collision over the American Central Plains. On May 22, 2011, a geostationary satellite 22,300 miles overhead recorded a large collection of cloud lines drifting over southeastern Kansas. At around 2 p.m, one of the cloud lines exploded, like a cartographic-scale dry-ice bomb. Dense white vapors poured from nothing, and over the next five hours the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitored the growing supercell thunderstorm as it drifted toward a three-letter abbreviation on the map: “JLN.” Just after 5 p.m., two storm chasers driving toward the western edge of Joplin, Missouri, spotted a translucent set of tendrils reaching down from the storm’s low black thunderhead. Almost as quickly as they formed, the tendrils disappeared. And then things took a turn. A dark blob half a mile wide congealed and dropped from the clouds. As it touched the ground, it filled with sparks from ruptured power lines, like a jar of fireflies. At 5:41, the National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri, issued this alert: NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO ON THE GROUND WEST OF JOPLIN AND POWER FLASHES."

Photo credit above left: "Pre-Tornado The Joplin, Missouri neighborhood where the author grew up. Google Maps."

Photo of Joplin tornado upper right courtesy of twisterchasers.com and NOAA.

Climate Change Causes Heated Battles For Science Teachers. Huffington Post has the story: "Prior to taking Mr. Visco's high school science class, Keith Hogan did not believe humans had had any hand in climate change. "I thought the media had just picked that up and blown it out of proportion," he said. Hogan remembers the day the "lightbulb went off," about four years ago. He'd always been into cars and would get defensive if someone tried to pin climate change on vehicle emissions. But when Mr. Visco pointed out that the methane spewing from livestock was actually a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, Hogan opened up and began to reconsider, and then accept, the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change."

Welcome To The Coldest Morning of Winter (feels like -25)

2012-01-18T22:31:00.000-06:00

26 F. high temperature on Wednesday in the Twin Cities.

23 F. average high on January 18.

19 F. high temperature a year ago, on January 18, 2011.

-34 F. this morning's record low at MSP (1970).

-25 F. wind chills this morning will dip into the -20 to -25 range in the metro, as cold as -40 over western Minnesota.

March 2, 2011: last time the mercury dipped below zero in the metro (-3 F.)

20s return by Sunday and Monday, highs close to 30 the latter half of next week. 40 F. is not out of the question by the last weekend of January, the 28th and 29th.

Coating - 1" snow possible Friday; maybe 2" far southern suburbs. Albert Lea, Winona and La Crosse may pick up as much as 2-4" of powdery snow. Travel conditions will worsen the farther south you drive, away from the metro, on Friday.

118 mph wind gust on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire Wednesday. Source: Weather Underground. Photo courtesy of the Mt. Washington Observatory.

46 states experienced weather-related catastrophes in 2011, according to The Red Cross.

Extreme Cold Warning Until Noon. Welcome to what will probably wind up being the coldest day of winter. Morning wind chills dip to -25 in the metro, as cold as -40 over central and western Minnesota. More details from the local office of the National Weather Service: "An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for areas northwest of a line from near Redwood Falls to Elk River to Cambridge. The dangerous wind chills will persiste through Thursday morning as overnight low temperatures dip to the 10 to 15 below range."

Friday: Another Near-Miss. It's amazing the number of ways we've missed out on snow this winter, the vast majority of storms detouring south/east of MSP. The latest NAM model prints out some 2-4" amounts over far southern Minnesota on Friday, maybe an inch in the metro, possibly 2" over far southern suburbs like Northfield and Credit River. The north metro may see little or no snow on Friday.

"The future, according to some scientists, will be exactly like the past, only far more expensive." - John Sladek. Graphic courtesy of funnychix.com.

A (Fleeting) Arctic Blast. Today will be a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that it can still get plenty cold in late January. In fact, today may wind up being the coldest day of winter, a rather tame winter at that. The local National Weather Service explains on Facebook: "An arctic cold front will move across the region today. This front will bring some snow to central and eastern areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin...but it will also usher in the coldest air of the winter season so far. It will become windy across west central through south central Minnesota, in the wake of the front, with northwest winds at 25 to 35 mph. This will be coupled with plummeting temperatures. By Thursday morning, most of the region will have temperatures below zero. Wind chills across the region Wednesday night and early Thursday will be in the 25 below to 40 below zero range."

Mild End To January. The models are consistent: we should end January in the 30s, a 40 degree high not out of the question the last weekend of the month. The GFS is hinting at a (brief) chill around February 2, maybe 1 or 2 nights dipping below zero, before temperatures recover.

Dribs And Drabs Of Snow. We just can't buy a storm. I keep waiting for the pattern to shift. We're going to have to wait awhile longer. Up to 1" may fall from a fast-moving clipper Friday, another (slushy) inch possible Sunday (considerably more east of the metro into Wisconsin), another coating next Wednesday. Pretty exciting stuff, huh? At this rate we may wind up with a 30" winter. For the sake of farmers and anyone with a lawn or garden - I hope I'm wrong.

Seattle Snow-Blitz. So this is what snow looks like? It's rather odd that Seattle has picked up 6-10 times more snow than the Twin Cities so far in January. What's wrong (or right) with that picture? Photo is from Crystal and Darin Harris. They say: ‎"11″ and counting Granite Falls, Washington."

Severe Storms, Possible Tornado Lash Kentucky. USA Today has an update: "LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) – Powerful spring-like storms lashed portions of Kentucky with fierce winds Tuesday, uprooting trees and yanking down power lines that clogged roads and left thousands without electricity.....The National Weather Service was assessing "strong evidence" of a tornado touchdown in a section of eastern Jefferson County, said hydrologist Mike Callahan. Television aerial footage in that area showed a path of damage including downed trees that covered roads and landed on roofs." Photo credit: Matt Stone, AP.

Photo Of The Day. Digital Globe has a remarkable high-resolution image of the partially-sunk Costa Concordia cruise ship floundering off the waters of Giglio Island, Italy.

Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Blizzards, Wildfires And More: Tax Relief For Those Who Suffered Losses. The story from AP and the Washington Post: "WASHINGTON — Tornadoes and hurricanes. Wildfires and floods. Earthquakes and blizzards. There were a record number of billion-dollar natural disasters in the United States in 2011, and taxpayers who suffered losses might be able to get some relief when they file their income tax returns.

“It’s a silver lining on otherwise terrible events,” said Mark Steber, chief tax officer at Jackson Hewitt Tax Service. “Tax laws in many cases are very favorable,” he said."

Photo credit above: "(Mel Evans, File/Associated Press) - FILE - In this Friday, Sept. 9, 2011 file photograph, buildings, fields and roads are flooded near Liberty, N.J., as remnants from Tropical Storm Lee continue to produce heavy rain. There were a record number of billion-dollar natural disasters in the United States in 2011, and taxpayers who suffered losses may be able to get some relief when they file their income tax returns."

1937 Flood Changed Louisville Forever. A fascinating story from courier-journal.com: "Seventy-five years ago in mid-January of 1937, intense rains drenched Louisville and continued falling for days. The Ohio River rose to levels never recorded before or since. The result was the “Great Flood of 1937” — one of the country’s worst natural disasters. For residents of the Louisville area, it was a “massive” life-changing experience, says historian Rick Bell of Crescent Hill. After it, people and industries began to flee flood-prone sites near the river to settle in what had been largely rural areas such as Shively, St. Matthews (which had been potato fields) and other communities."

"Disaster Tourism" Stirring Up Controversy. A legitimate source of (new) revenue for a struggling, recovering town, or feeding off misery and downright tacky? Local10.com has the story:" JOPLIN, MO - On Sunday, May 22, 2011, Joplin, Missouri was struck by a catastrophic EF5 tornado, leaving a 22 mile long path of destruction that was a mile wide in some areas. The tornado killed 162 people and injured thousands. Nearly eight months later, the city’s Convention and Visitors Bureau is coming under fire for offering visitors a free “tornado travel” map which highlights areas hit by the tornado and can be picked up for free at local hotels and businesses. Some residents of Joplin were outraged after hearing this news and made their opinion clear on the Joplin Convention and Visitor Center’s Facebook page. Comments ranged from “tacky” to “great idea."

"Only your real friends will tell you when your face is dirty." - Sicilian Proverb

Apocalypse Not Now: NASA Debunks Doomsday Predictions. MSNBC.com has the encouraging news: "On Dec. 21, 2012, many doomsday believers fear the apocalypse — anything from a rogue planet smashing into us to our world spinning end over end. However, the world should expect nothing more next year than the winter solstice, the longest night of the year, NASA says. Many people point to the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar on Dec. 21, 2012 as evidence of the coming apocalypse, but astronomers have been quick to stress that there is nothing to be concerned about."

Photo credit: "Gilderm/sxc.hu".

Alaskan Dogsled Race Cancelled Due To "Impassable" Trail Conditions. While we suffer through a protracted snow drought, Alaska has more snow than it knows what to do with. The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner has the amazing details: "FAIRBANKS — The Copper Basin 300 sled dog race is the latest victim of Alaska’s weird winter weather pattern as race officials canceled the event Sunday morning, less than a day after the race started. The race came to a halt when a section of trail was deemed impassible. A statement by race marshal Greg Parvin said the trail between Meier’s Lake and Sourdough had unusually deep snow conditions, with high winds and bitter cold. Two Rivers musher Allen Moore, who was one of the race leaders, told his handlers that the trail got bad about 12 miles out of Meiers Lake and snowmachines were getting stuck in attempts to break a trail for the race." Photo above courtesy of alaska-in-pictures.com.

Nice To Be "Average". Ahead of the clipper a light south breeze tugged the mercury into the 20s over most of central and southern Minnesota, bitter air lurking just the north (a high of -5 at International Falls). Wednesday highs ranged from 11 at Hibbint to 25 St. Cloud, 26 in the Twin Cities to 29 at Redwood Falls. 1.1" snow fell at St. Cloud during a late afternoon snow burst ahead of the coldest air of winter.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: "Tundra-like" cold. Bright sun, possibly the coldest day of winter. Wind chill: -25 Winds: NW 10-15. High: 4

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, still numb. Low: 0

FRIDAY: Light snow - Icy roads. 1-2" possible in the metro, 2-4" far southern MN. High: 10

SATURDAY: Better travel day. Fading sun, not as bitter. Low: -2. High: 17

SUNDAY: Milder, PM wet snow possible. Low: 11. High: 26

MONDAY: Drier day, more clouds than sun. Low: 14. High: 25

TUESDAY: Some sun, temperatures close to average. Low: 15. High: 23

WEDNESDAY: Chance of wet snow, still a few degrees milder than average. Low: 13. High: 27

Highs may climb close to 30 or even hit freezing by the end of next week.

Coldest Of Winter?

This is why we don't have a population of 10 million. Most Americans live in mortal fear of waking up to a morning like this. "So cold body parts start falling off, right"? Yep. That's why we have world-class health care. "Really?" Uh huh. Trust me. I'm a weatherman.

We've been through this drill before. Welcome to the 1st subzero morning of winter, and a record-breaking one at that. We set a record for the latest subzero on record in the metro. A stinging breeze will make it feel like -25 at the bus stop. Dress in layers - don't forget a hat. Keep those body parts intact. Only 2 days of pain. We'll get though this...

A peculiarly persistent Pacific wind flow aloft is responsible for our ongoing snow drought. Weather models have (consistently) overestimated snowfall amounts this winter. With that caveat I'm mentioning a potential for a whopping coating - 2" snow tomorrow; it may be enough to plow just south of MSP.

Temperatures blip upward over the weekend with 20s by Sunday (which will feel amazingly good). Long-range models bring the mercury close to freezing by the end of next week; another ill- timed January thaw. I fear Volcanis may get the last laugh at the St. Paul Winter Carnival next week.

My hunch: we're waking up to the coldest morning of winter, the "Relatively Easy Winter of '12".

"Children make you want to start life over." - Muhammad Ali. Photo credit: pics24h.com.

Climate Stories....

Does Global Warming Mean More Winter Snow Storms. OBP News has a curious story: "While Northwest residents confront a winter snow blast, new research is pointing to climate change as a possible reason that harsh Arctic weather is pushing into some lower latitudes. The new study, published by Atmospheric and Environmental Research, is contradicting what current climate models tell us about winter weather patterns. It suggests warming trends in the spring, summer and fall are causing colder winters with more severe storms. The study’s lead author, Judah Cohen, says winter temperatures should be warming the most, according to climate models. But actual temperatures aren’t lining up with what those models have predicted."

Trumpeter Swans Rebound, With An Assist From Global Warming. A silver lining? Bring it on. Scientific American has the story: "ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Outside Alaska's largest city, where wildlife is more common than pigeons, locals bearing field glasses turn out every year to watch blazingly white trumpeter swans stop to feed on their way south for the winter. The swans, famed for their French horn call and immortalized by author E.B. White, were nearly hunted to extinction in much of the United States and Canada by the late 1800s for their meat, feathers, down and quills. Now, North America's largest wild fowl may be one of the few good-news stories of global warming - at least for the short term." Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

In 2012 Let's Resolve To Fight Global Warming Together. The story from Huffington Post: "2011 was disastrous -- literally. Forty-six states in the U.S. alone experienced weather-related catastrophes, according to the American Red Cross. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently reported that 2011 set a record for the number of U.S. disasters costing more than $1 billion each. Last year the 12 most costly U.S. disasters totaled approximately $52 billion and resulted in the loss of nearly 650 lives. Data from Munich Re indicate that the world economy experienced a record-breaking $265 billion in economic losses from disasters in just the first six months of 2011. These are just the consequences we can numerically count. The resulting human suffering is not quantifiable."

Marcellus Boom Threatens Climate Change Action, Study Says. The Charleson Gazette reports: "CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- The boom in drilling for natural gas in the Marcellus Shale and other similar formations will likely suppress the development of alternative energies that are urgently needed to combat global warming, according to a new study by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology. Researchers highlighted some positive aspects of the boom in drilling for "shale-gas" reserves, such as help in lowering gas prices and stimulating the economy. But they warned that a switch from coal to natural gas alone isn't nearly enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the levels scientists believe are needed to curb the worst impacts of global warming."

Education Group To Defend Climate Change Science. The story from Forbes: "The National Center for Science Education (NCSE) will begin offering support to public school teachers and schools on the contentious topic of climate change. Eugenie Scott, the executive director of the organization, based in Oakland, California, has been for years an outspoken defender of the teaching of evolution in U.S. classrooms. The NCSE provides resources to teachers, schools and school boards, and has challenged the efforts of creationists to undermine the teaching of evolution in various states. As colleagues and textbook authors around the country began sharing their personal experiences and concerns about the teaching of climate science, Scott realized she needed to expand NCSE’s mandate to include the politically charged issue as well."

Photo credit above: "Eugenie Scott (Image by Euthman via Flickr)."

Record For Latest Subzero (couple inches of snow Friday? Thaw next week)

2012-01-17T22:25:00.000-06:00

16F. high in the Twin Cities Tuesday. Afternoon high.
23 F. average high for January 17.
25 F. high temperature a year ago, on January 17, 2011.
1/10th of an inch of snow fell Tuesday. Ugh.
Trace of snow on the ground.
11.3" snow so far this winter season.
53.9" had fallen on the metro as of January 17, 2011.
December 3: last time the Twin Cities saw a "plowable" snow (4.2")

1-3" snow possible Friday (NAM and GFS models). The ECMWF model keeps most of the snow south of MSP Friday.

Little snow on the ground at MSP will prevent the mercury from falling as much as if we had significant snowcover. In fact nighttime lows (with little or no snow) may be 5-10 degrees milder than they would with 6" snow on the ground.

Least Winter Snowfall In The Cities?

17.4" 1986-1987
17.5" 1967-1968
19.1" 1958-1959
25.5" 2004-2005

*11.3" 2011-2012 (to date)

** photo courtesy of the Star Tribune.

ECMWF European weather model predicts high temperatures in the Twin Cities at or above freezing every day from Sunday through Thursday of next week, as mild as 37-40 F. next Monday.

"This is an emergency, we will shortly be making an emergency landing on water." - erroneous announcement made on a recent Miami to London British Airways flight. It was a computer malfunction - the plane made it to London with no problems, but passengers were VERY upset. Details below.

1985. The storm moving into the Pacific Northwest may produce the most snow since a blizzard in November, 1985. Satellite image courtesy of NexSat.

Worst Seattle Snow Since '85 In The Forecast. MSNBC.com has the latest on what may turn into an historic storm for Seattle and the Pacific Northwest: "A major winter storm that could dump three times Seattle's annual snowfall on the city over two days was headed for the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night and into Wednesday..... "Keep in mind, average annual snowfall is only 2.4 inches in Portland and 5.9 inches in Seattle, so these amounts are very significant for these metro areas."

Sledding On Roof: Alaska Buried Under Mounds Of Snow. The story from the AP and the Seattle Times: "ANCHORAGE — The most intense winter anyone in Alaska can remember has piled snow so high that windows are blocked, fuel has been delayed, roofs have been turned into sled runs and boats have sunk. While snow depths are below normal in most of the nation, Alaska is buried. More than twice as much snow as usual has fallen on the state's largest city, National Guard troops are digging out a fishing community and snow shovels are at a premium."

Photo credit above: "A 14 year old boy clears the roof of his Anchorage home. More snow fell Thursday." Loren Holmes/AP."

"I never had a policy; I have just tried to do my very best each and every day." - Abraham Lincoln

Another Chance....To Be Disappointed? My expectations have been dramatically lowered this winter. I keep reminding people (and myself) that we're in a drought. Getting significant snow is like swimming upstream (in molasses). We'll probably see some snow on Friday, but the ECMWF (European) model keeps the heaviest snow bands over southern Minnesota, closer to the Iowa border. That said, this is probably the best chance (of 1-3") we'll see looking out the next 1-2 weeks.

Friday Flakes? Somehow we seem to always miss out on accumulating snow, unlike last winter, when it wouldn't STOP snowing. The 00z NAM brings a super-sized clipper into central and southern Minnesota Friday, the map above valid midday Friday. The ECMWF (European) model takes the heaviest snow bands south of MSP - the heaviest accumulations may come from Mankato and Rochester into central Wisconsin. I have my doubts, yes, but the last 4 runs have been fairly consistent bringing some accumulating snow into the southern third of Minnesota. MSP may (once again) be on the boundary of "plowable" snow.

Bufkit Numbers. Based on a snow/rain ratio ranging fro 7:1 to 15:1 Bufkit is printing out 3" snow by Friday evening. I'm skeptical....but a little bit hopeful too.

Brushed By Significant Snow? The latest NAM solution is showing some 6" amounts for the metro by midnight, Friday night. Again, I think these numbers are wildly inflated (they have been most of the winter). I was hesitant to even include this in the blog, but in the spirit of full disclosure. Either way, the heaviest amounts are predicted for central Wisconsin, from near Black River Falls to Appleton and Green Bay.

Will We Tie...or Break The Record For Latest Subzero Low In The Twin Cities? If we (somehow) avoided negative numbers last night we'll set a new record for the latest (first) subzero in the metro. The old record is January 18, 2002. More from the local NWS office: "The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. There has NEVER been a winter where temperatures failed to drop below zero. In the Twin Cities the least number of below zero days was 2 back in the winter of 2001-2002. As of January 16th, the temperature has not dropped below zero at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport this winter. January 18 is the latest date during the winter season that the Twin Cities has experienced its first below zero temperature, back in 1889. In addition, Mankato has yet to see a temperature below zero this winter as of January 16th. The least number of below zero days for a given winter in Mankato was 6, back in the wtiner of 1982-83. St. Cloud, Albert Lea and Eau Claire have already seen below zero days this winter. As of January 16th St. Cloud, Eau Claire and Albert Lea have all dropped below zero 2 times."

Ice Getting Thicker - But Still Not Totally Stable. With temperatures consistently below freezing this week ice conditions should improve over time, but another thaw next week may set us back a few notches again next week. Check with locals before venturing out onto any ice in the coming days.

Another Near-Miss Early Next Week. This really sums up our snow-no-show-winter. Next week's storm will probably pass south/east of Minnesota, a few outer bands of light snow may brush portions of southern and eastern Minnesota - a better chance of accumulating snow over Wisconsin. The truth: it's too early to tell with any confidence. We're in a drought. Best to keep your (snowy) expectations low.

Seasonably Cold Start To February? Temperatures should trend considerably milder than average throughthis upcoming Sunday through the last week of January, but long range guidance is hinting at another close encounter (of the subzero kind) the first few days of February. 500mb map above (GFS forecast) valid February 2, courtesy of NOAA.

Ill-Timed Thaw. The GFS has been trending too cold for much of the winter - the physics in the model assumes it's mid January, when, in fact, the atmosphere has been blowing in an almost March-like pattern. If 850mb (3,500 foot) temperatures really do hit +11 C Saturday, January 28, we could see surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Either way the models are trending warmer with each passing run for the last week of January, followed by a turn to seasonably colder weather in early February. Oh, it goes without saying...no big storms in sight from Jan. 25 to Feb. 2.

Water Sports In Mid January? Amazing but true: "Bob Hens rides on his personal watercraft in Lake Erie during the warm winter weather in Buffalo, N.Y., Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012. His friend, Tim Koester, not shown, but who was riding with him, said they would normally be riding their snowmobiles at this time of year. (AP Photo/David Duprey)."

Balmy Winter Brings Plenty Of Economic Surprises. AP and timesfreepress.com have the story: "NEW YORK — Out of a relatively balmy winter have sprung some economic surprises. People have more cash in their pockets because they aren’t turning up the thermostat. Airlines don’t have to de-ice planes or battle blizzards. And shoppers are finding great deals on coats and boots. But there are also disappointments. Merchants are stuck with unsold shovels and snow blowers. Drugstores say customers aren’t buying cold medicine or getting as many flu shots. The weather has been so mild that at some hardware outlets, rakes are flying off the shelf, and grass seed is outselling ice-melting salt. “I haven’t seen this mix of sales since I can remember,” said David Ziegler, whose family owns nine Ace Hardware stores in the northwest Chicago area. “They’re buying rakes ... just because it’s warmer and people are not holed up.”

Photo credit above: "Jeff Gould, lead equipment operator for the Department of Public Works in Sioux Falls, S.D., stands in front of a giant salt dome filled with rock salt Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012. Gould says the pile would be half size by this time of a normal winter. Wednesday marked just the fourth time of this winter season that the city was hit with even a light covering of snow. The warm winter has put more green in the pockets of state and local governments that had their budgets busted last year by the high cost of plowing and running roaring furnaces. (AP Photo/Amber Hunt)."

So THIS Is What Snow Looks Like. Here's the latest from the National Weather Service in Portland, Oregon, courtesy of Facebook: "Snowy conditions continue into Wednesday morning. Snow levels will drop once again Tuesday night and remain near the valley floor through Wednesday morning. Expect a variety of snow accumulations, ranging from a trace to several inches, with a mix of rain and snow in the valley by mid morning. This will impact the morning commute on Wednesday. Plan your morning accordingly! Also, remember to dial 511 for road conditions, as hazardous travel conditions are expected."

Unseasonably Mild Again Next Week? Meteorologist and long-range weather forecasting guru Larry Cosgrove, based in Houston, is predicting (much) warmer than average weather next week east of the Rockies as a westerly, Pacific flow resumes.

Warming Trend. The NAEFS super-ensemble shows a strong tendency toward milder-than-average weather for much of America the last week of July. Map courtesy of Larry Cosgrove and WxAmerica.

Record Low For Lightning Deaths In 2011 But Tornado Deaths Third Highest; Why The Disparity? Jason Samenow from the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang has an interesting story: "Out of the all the bad weather news in 2011, one notable success story emerges: lightning deaths were lowest in the 71-years of record keeping. Just 26 people were killed by lightning in 2011, which is amazing considering the frequency of violent severe weather outbreaks across the U.S. By comparison, 551 people were killed by tornadoes in 2011, the most since 1950 and third highest on record according to NOAA. The striking difference between lightning and tornado fatalities begs the question why..." Graph above courtesy of NOAA.

Alabama Tornadoes: Helmets Provide Inexpensive Protection, UAB Researchers Say. An intriguing story from the Birmingham News: "BIRMINGHAM -- UAB researchers say that motorcycle helmets, football helmets and bicycle helmets offer a practical, inexpensive solution to reducing the risk of head injuries during a tornado and are calling on the federal Centers for Disease Control to incorporate the advice in its tornado preparedness messages. "It's such a common sense idea that we wonder why it hasn't caught on," said Scott Crawford, an epidemiologist and one of authors of "Safety Helmets: A Practical Inexpensive Solution for Reducing the Risk of Head Injuries Resulting from Tornadoes."

Photo credit above: "Mike Culberson credits this helmet with preventing injury, if not saving his life, when his home roof collapsed during tornado in Fultondale, Ala., on April 27, 2011. (Special/Michael Culberson)."

Fuel Tanker Finally Reaches Iced-In Alaskan Town. The Great Energy Challenge blog from National Geographic has the latest: "The Russian tanker Renda, loaded with 1.3 million gallons of fuel, finally made it to Nome over the weekend, ending a journey that began in mid-December and involved breaking through more than 300 miles of ice. It followed a path plotted and sheared out by the U.S. Coast Guard’s currently only operating Arctic icebreaker, the Cutter Healy. Nome is in the southern Seward Peninsula coast on Norton Sound of the Bering Sea (map). The region was originally used as a hunting ground by the Inupiat settlement of Sitnasuak, but the population grew due to the discovery of gold in the late 1800s and the region’s use as an airstrip in World War II. In 2010, according to the U.S. Census, the city population was 3,598."

A Timely Question: How Safe Are Cruise Ships? The BBC has some answers: "Effectively, the company has 24 hours to take you through a drill once you are on board. The Costa Concordia was only a few hours into its voyage. Some people arriving back at Heathrow started flashing their drill cards around. They had been scheduled for a rehearsal on Saturday afternoon, by which time the ship was lying on its side. I suspect, in the light of this accident, all cruise companies will now make sure they drill passengers before they set sail. But what about the time it took to get everyone off? Regulation III/21.1.3: All survival craft required to provide for abandonment by the total number of persons on board shall be capable of being launched with their full complement of persons and equipment within a period of 30 min from the time the abandon ship signal is given after all persons have been assembled, with life jackets donned."

British Airways Crew Mistakenly Announce That Jet Is Going Down. Talk about the definition of a bad flight - being told you have a few minutes until a "water landing", which is probably a death sentence high over the North Atlantic? CNN reports: "British Airways cabin crew sparked panic by mistakenly activating an emergency announcement that said the plane was going down, and passengers should brace for a water landing. The message on the Miami-London flight reportedly said: "This is an emergency, we will shortly be making an emergency landing on water." A flight attendant came on the public address system about 30 seconds later to apologize, saying the message was played by mistake, according to the Daily Mail. A spokesman for the airline confirmed the incident and said: "The cabin crew canceled the announcement immediately and sought to reassure customers that the flight was operating normally."

Minnesota Launches Minnesota River Cleanup Effort. The Star Tribune has the details: "Minnesota will be the nation's first test site for a federal program designed to stem the flow of agricultural pollution strangling some of the country's great bodies of water, including Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River. Gov. Mark Dayton is expected to announce Minnesota's leading role in the project at the Capitol on Tuesday morning, with Tom Vilsack, U.S. secretary of agriculture, and Lisa Jackson, administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, at his side."

EPA: Job Killer Or People Saver? CNN analyst LZ Granderson reminds us that a Republican, Richard Nixon, kicked off the EPA. Is clean air and water a civil right? Here's an excerpt of his Op-Ed: "The way some Republicans talk about the Environmental Protection Agency, you would think it was created by a bunch of pot-smoking hippies communing at a nudist camp in northern California -- when in fact, the EPA was created by one of their own, Richard Nixon, in 1970. Much as Republicans don't like to bring up the huge tax increases instituted by their hero, Ronald Reagan, they prefer to sidestep their role in the EPA's humble beginnings and blame it on Democrats. They characterize the whole thing as an albatross hanging around the economy's neck. To be fair, Nixon did not ride into the White House as a conservationist, and he did veto the Clean Water Act. But he said he did so because of the price tag of the policy, not its purpose. After the Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969 -- which at the time was the largest in U.S. history -- Nixon agreed with the rest of thinking society that clean water and air were a good thing. And his fingerprints are all over such tree-hugging initiatives as the Clean Air Act."

A Newborn Volcanic Island In The Red Sea. NASA's Earth Observatory has the story: "A volcanic eruption in the Red Sea appears to have stopped, leaving behind a newborn island. The new island is part of the Zubair Islands, located about 60 kilometers (40 miles) off the coast of Yemen. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) aboard the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite acquired this natural-color image on January 15, 2011."

“To carry a grudge is like being stung to death by one bee.” – William H. Walton

Feels Like Winter. A Canadian breeze rustled the trees yesterday, afternoon temperatures stuck in single digits and teens, in spite of a bright, pleading sun. Highs ranged from 1 above at International Falls to 11 St. Cloud, 16 in the Twin Cities and 19 at Eau Claire. Duluth only has 1" snow on the ground, a "trace" of snow in St. Cloud and MSP.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Some sun, warming up a bit ahead of clipper. Winds: S 10-20. High: 25

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Light snow and flurries - coating possible; turning MUCH colder. Low: -4 (metro). As cold as -8 to -10 in some of the outlying suburbs.

THURSDAY: First widespread subzero morning. Bright sun - bitter. High: 4

FRIDAY: Potential for a couple inches (best chance southern Minnesota). Low: -3. High: 11

SATURDAY: Fading sun, a bit milder. Low: -4. High: 23

SUNDAY: Chance of snow (mainly over Wisconsin). Low: 10. High: 34

MONDAY: Partly sunny and quiet - milder than average. Low: 14. High: 37

TUESDAY: Storm may stay south/east of MN. Small chance of snow. Low: 19. high: 33

One Odd Winter

Every day is a new creation; every weather pattern is different and unique. That's liberating, and a little bit terrifying. We can have similar patterns, but never identical. Computers help, but they're only as good as the physics, the math we use to simulate how the atmosphere SHOULD behave. Junk in, junk out.

The reason for my rambling preamble? We're in uncharted waters. I can't remember a winter this...strange. Much of winter has been downright Marchlike; about a fifth as much snow as last winter. This lack of snowcover will keep temperatures about 5-10 degrees warmer than they would be otherwise in mid January. Subzero readings are still likely tomorrow, but we bottom out around -4, instead of -11, had we had a few inches of snow on the ground. Then again: can you feel any colder than numb?

Tough times for snow enthusiasts. Ski Seattle? The Pacific Northwest is getting buried under 1-2 FEET of snow, possibly the biggest snowstorm since 1985.

Next week's storm will probably sail south/east of Minnesota again. Our only chance of accumulating snow? Friday. The NAM prints out a few inches, but the European (ECMWF) model keeps snow south of MSP. It just doesn't want to snow this winter.

"We should all be concerned abou the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there." - Charles F. Kettering. Photo credit here.

Climate Stories....

Climate Proposal Puts Practicality Ahead Of Sacrifice. The New York Times has the story (subscription may be required): "After looking at hundreds of ways to control these pollutants, the researchers determined the 14 most effective measures for reducing climate change, like encouraging a switch to cleaner diesel engines and cookstoves, building more efficient kilns and coke ovens, capturing methane at landfills and oil wells, and reducing methane emissions from rice paddies by draining them more often. If these strategies became widespread, the researchers calculate, the amount of global warming in 2050 would be reduced by about one degree Fahrenheit, roughly a third of the warming projected if nothing is done. This impact on temperatures in 2050 would be significantly larger than the projected impact of the commonly proposed measures for reducing carbon dioxide emissions."

Newly Discovered Molecule Has Potential To Offset Climate Change And Cool Planet. The story from gizmag.com: "Researchers claim a newly discovered molecule found in the Earth's atmosphere holds the potential to help offset global warming by actually cooling the planet. The molecule is a Criegee biradical or Criegee intermediate, which are chemical intermediaries that are powerful oxidizers of pollutants produced by combustion, such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. They have the ability to naturally clean up the atmosphere by helping break down nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide to form sulfate and nitrate, which ultimately leads to cloud formation that could help cool the planet."

Study: Hail May Be Gone From Front Range By 2070. Denverpost.com has the story: "Hail — and the physical and economic damage that comes with it — could be gone from Colorado's Front Range by 2070, say Boulder scientists. Not having hail to deal with would be a boon to gardeners and farmers. But a shift from hail to rain can also mean more runoff and a greater risk of flash flooding, said Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. "In this region of elevated terrain, hail may lessen the risk of flooding because it takes a while to melt," she said. "Decision-makers may not want to count on that in the future." Photo above courtesy of NOAA.

Climate Change Ripples Through Mountain Ecosystems. LiveScience.com has the story: "Like dominoes given one nudge, climate change in the form of reduced winter snowfall on mountaintops has subtle but powerful cascading effects felt throughout entire ecosystems, a new study finds. In the northern mountains of Arizona, elk spend their winters in lower elevations where there’s much less snow and the cold is less pronounced. But the decrease in high-elevation snowfall in the mountains over the last 25 years has allowed elk to forage in these areas throughout winter. Researchers found that the elks' year-round high-elevation browsing has decimated the density of seasonal woodsy plants, which, in turn, has impacted the populations of songbirds (animals you might expect would actually benefit from less snow)." Photo courtesy of USGS.

Why Are Some People (and interest groups) So Afraid Of Al Gore? I think some people just can't get past Al Gore's politics, and the fact that his (courageous) movie brought the subject of climate change into a very public light. They believe that if you accept that the climate is changing, and we're a big part of those changes, then somehow you have to buy into Al Gore and his politics. Really? That's one (big) negative for some of my conservative friends - they don't like Mr. Gore. But there's an even bigger issue: a majority of skeptics, deniers and contrarians don't want to accept reality and the facts on the ground because, if they do, then they have to swallow draconian solutions, like bigger government, more regulation, higher taxes. More rubbish. The markets will eventually figure this out and unleash new, revolutionary carbon-neutral technologies, so we can have clean energy, without the unpleasant side effects. Government can set policy and provide (initial) incentives, but only the markets will be able to figure this out, in my humble opinion. But that doesn't mean we stick our heads in the (Saudi) sand until the problem goes away. Unfortunately, with China adding one new coal-fired plant every week, the problem isn't going away anytime soon. Graphic above courtesy of the Heartland Institute.

China Set To Launch First Caps On CO2 Emissions. China taking the lead in putting a cap on "carbon intensity"? New Scientist has the story: "Seven provinces and cities in China are to set caps on their greenhouse gas emissions, following a directive from central government. It's the first time the Chinese government has called for any absolute caps on emissions, having so far preferred softer "carbon intensity" targets. The move is a first step towards establishing carbon trading markets in China and further evidence of the country's commitment to tackling climate change, says Felix Preston of Chatham House, a foreign-policy think tank based in London. On 13 January China's National Development and Reform Commission asked the cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the provinces of Hubei and Guangdong, to set "overall emissions control targets". Photo courtesy of Reuters and sinostand.com.

Climate Change, Can We Sue? New Climate Change Litigation Book Launched At COP17. The story from Oxfam GB Policy and Practice: "After the negotiations at Durban, a new book explores the role of litigation in bringing about climate justice. It remains to be seen exactly what the Durban Platform will mean in the long run, but with frustration mounting at the slow progress of negotiations despite growing evidence of adverse climate impacts, attention is turning towards alternative scenarios where the risk of litigation looms large. Whether as a liability claim (analogous to tobacco or asbestos litigation against business), or as an argument in a case about tort, planning or energy, climate change is finding its way into the courts in a wide range of countries. Until now the emphasis has been on litigation between states, or on domestic litigation in developed countries, but the picture is starting to get more interesting."

First Subzero of Winter by Thursday (maps are looking snowier)

2012-01-16T22:44:00.000-06:00

32 F. high temperature on Monday in the Twin Cities.

23 F. average high for January 16.

15 F. high temperature a year ago, January 16, 2011.

First subzero low of winter in the Twin Cities: Thursday morning.

March 2: last time the mercury dipped below zero at KMSP (-3 F.)

1"+ powdery snow today, up to 2" in some spots. With temperatures near 10 F. much of the day traffic may compress that light snow into black ice. Roads will be slippery.

2-5" new snow on the ground in the Twin Cities by Saturday? 3 separate systems come sailing through town this week, the best chance of a few inches Saturday. It may actually look like January out there within 96 hours.

January 24-25: significant storm forecast to track south/east of Minnesota. A plowable snowfall is possible early next week, especially south/east of MSP. Too early for any more specifics, but the pattern is definitely looking a bit more interesting for snow-lovers.

6-10" snow predicted for the Seattle area by Thursday. 3-5" may fall tomorrow, another 3-6" late Wednesday into Thursday. If this forecast verifies, it will be the most snow for the Sea-Tac area since November of 1985.

0: number of subzero nights so far this winter.

5: number of subzero nights last winter in the Twin Cities as of January 17.

17: average number of subzero nights at KMSP as of mid January.

January 18: latest (first) subzero in the Twin Cities (2002). This year we'll come very close to breaking this record.

Subzero lows expected here at MSP Thursday and Friday of this week, the only negative numbers in sight.

Temperature Trend. The Ham Weather temperature graph for Minneapolis - St. Paul shows temperature blipping well above average over the weekend, followed by another dip (into the normal range) by the end of next week. Click here to plug in your zip and get your own personalized temperature trend.

26 minutes of additional daylight in the cities since the Winter Solstice on December 21.

January Snowfall So Far:

.9" Twin Cities (MSP International).
1.8" Louisville, Kentucky.

Rough Sledding. "In this photo taken Friday, Jan. 13, 2012, Isabella Crowe, 10, flies down a barely snow-covered hillside at Chautauqua Park in Owensboro, Ky. (AP Photo/The Messenger-Inquirer, Gary Emord-Netzley)."

"What a winter! Despite the weekend chill & first week's snow, this winter's 10.2-deg milder than last to date & has seen only 31% as much snow!" - meteorologist Tom Skilling, WGN-TV in Chicago. Photo: sheimagazine.com.

-48 F. at Fairbanks, Alaska - coldest temperature reported in 4 years.
-56 F. at the North Pole weather station. More details from the NWS here.

"2016 is looming as the year during which a gap in weather satellites could leave the nation without some of the severe storm data that’s vital to early warnings. " - from a story below on budget issues impacting new weather satellites.

"Youth is a wonderful thing. What a crime to waste it on children." - George Bernard Shaw

Flirting With Zero. No, this won't be your grandfather's arctic front: possibly 1 night below zero (Thursday). If temperatures stay above zero on Wednesday we may set a record for the latest subzero on record in the metro area. The old record for latest subzero: January 18, 2002. All the models show a nice temperature recovery over the weekend, highs may climb above freezing by Sunday. Grilling weather.

Looking Better For "S-N-O-W". I don't want to get your hopes up - or mine for that matter, but the arrival of much colder air will create a more favorable environment for snow. The arrival of colder air sets off an inch or two today, another 1-2" Thursday night, maybe a few more inches on Saturday. By the weekend we may have 2-4" of snow on the ground. I know - I'll believe it when I see it.

Accumulating Snow? 6-8" by midday Saturday? That may be a stretch, but a series of (minor) clippers may drop a "plowable" amount of snow by the weekend - the heaviest amounts south/west of the Twin Cities. Finally - some good news for snow lovers (and anyone with a plow or snow blower).

Brushed By A Major Storm Early Next Week? The latest GFS model run takes the storm track farther south/east. That's good and bad (for snow lovers). The heaviest snow bands may pass just south/east of MSP, but with a track across southeastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin precipitation would probably fall as all-snow. An earlier run on Monday tried to bring a cold rain into much of Minnesota early next week. The GFS still prints out about .84" liquid, with 850 mb temperatures ranging from -4 to -8C, definitely cold enough for snow. It's still (way) early to panic...or celebrate, but at least there's a chance...

February 1: Seasonably Cold (More Frequent Snows?) The 500mb forecast valid Feb 1 (GFS) shows a modified zonal flow with a continuation of unusually strong jet stream winds aloft, meaning frequent weather changes, a parade of clipper-like systems - probably no major storms late January and early February. Temperatures should trend close to average: highs in the 20s, even some 30s from time to time.

Extended Outlook: Closer To Average. After a close-encounter with a significant storm early next week we dry out again from January 26 - February 1, highs ranging from upper teens to near 30 at times, another arctic swipe possible by Ground Hog Day (Feb. 2).

Ski Seattle. Good grief - first Alaska, now the Pacific Northwest is getting hammered with near-record snowfall amounts. It's getting closer...one of these days. More details: "Ken Cunningham shovels his sidewalk during a snowstorm in Seattle, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2012. Several inches of snow fell quickly Sunday morning, snarling traffic and clogging roadways. Cunningham said he moved to the area from Chicago, so he knows how to deal with snow, but he added that snow plows are out almost immediately in that city when the snow flies. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)."

Arctic Front Could Now Make For A Snowy 1-2 Punch In Seattle. KOMOnews.com has the latest: "....The grand finale, at least as far as snow is concerned, comes Tuesday night into Wednesday as a powerful storm rolls into Western Washington. Forecasting models still differ a bit on exactly how this will play out, but are at least coming closer together. The general theme is for heavy snow to begin late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as the storm approaches, then at some point, change to rain, but not before several inches of snow have fallen. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Western Washington for Wednesday to indicate potential for a widespread snow event.
Forecast models are still very inconsistent on the path and behavior of this storm, which will make a great difference in when the changeover occurs. It's possible several inches of snow will fall before the changeover, and amounts will vary depending on the storm's track."

Latest Watches & Warnings. Here are more details on the impending Snowpocalypse for Seattle from the local KSEA National Weather Service office.

Holy Snow Blower! The latest NAM model prints out 6-8" for downtown Seattle and Tacoma, with some 16"+ amounts over the Cascade Range and Olympic Peninsula - a potentially crippling snowfall for much of the Pacific Northwest.

Ski Resorts Blow Fake Snow For A Brown Winter. NPR has the story: "Across the Midwest and northeast this weekend, ski resort towns are celebrating the arrival of winter for the first time this season. Terry Hill has been renting out cabins near Baxter State Park in Maine in 30 years, where she says they only received about four to five inches of snow on Saturday. She usually rents her cabins to those who like to snowmobile, but those cabins are empty right now. She says Maine needs a couple more big storms to make up lost ground for what's been a brown winter..... "First 10 days of January, warmest, driest in U.S. history," Douglas says. "Ninety-five percent of the country [is] experiencing below-average snow conditions." Douglas says Minneapolis is finally getting "typical January weather," at 11 degrees and wind-chill dipping below zero, but earlier this week, it was 52 degrees. "What's weird is that 15 to 20 cities set all-time rainfall records last year, seven states had the wettest year on record," Douglas says. "We've had crazy extremes, Texas in the midst of a historic drought while it's incredibly wet east of the Mississippi." Photo: Jim Cole/AP.

Tracking Smoke On Doppler? Here's a Facebook post from the Lubbock office of the National Weather Service: "Fire crews are working to contain a large grass fire about 35 miles west of Lubbock. The fire is located just northwest of Levelland and very close to Highway 114. The smoke from the fire is visible from the Lubbock NEXRAD. No current reports on the fire’s size, but tank batteries are threatened."

March-like Last Week of January? The NAEFS computer ensemble is hinting at a resumption of a relatively mild, Pacific flow by late January, meaning more 30s, even a few 40s can't be ruled out. Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove at WxAmerica has more details: "While both the GFS and ECMWF model packages are colder over parts of the central and southern U.S. after January 24, I call attention to the very warm appearance of the NAEFS super-ensemble. I see no important pattern change through February 1, since the coldest anomalies remain over Alaska and the Yukon Territory. There will be two moderate snow/ice events in the Midwest over the next six days before the much waterm wari takes over for the 6-10 day period. Keep in mind that a ferocious storm is predicted to move from the Texas Panhandle to Lake Superior (Panhandle Hooker A Type) which will likely bring widespread severe weather/flooding rains across the lower Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley as well as Ohio and Tennesse River watersheds between January 23-26. A huge blizzard is likely in the Front Range and High Plains in association with this storm."

Fine-Tuning The Doppler. "In this Jan. 13, 2012 photo, National Weather Service meteorologist Bobby Boyd works at the NWS facility in Old Hickory, Tenn. New technology in the facility's Doppler radar allows meteorologists the ability to see things more clearly, including rain, snow, and even debris from a tornado. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)."

Delay In Satellites Could Jeopardize Severe Weather Forecasts. Emergency Management has the story (which is of significant concern to meteorologists at NOAA and in the private sector as well: "2016 is looming as the year during which a gap in weather satellites could leave the nation without some of the severe storm data that’s vital to early warnings. After 2011’s record-breaking severe weather — with 12 disasters that cost more than $1 billion — it seems counterintuitive that budget reductions may create a period of 12 to 18 months during which severe warnings days in advance of a storm likely won’t be available, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions."

Home Insurance To Cost More. The Columbus Dispatch has the details: "Last year’s catastrophic tornadoes, floods and hurricanes probably mean that the cost of insuring your home will continue to climb. The cost of homeowner policies had been rising even before a rash of deadly storms in 2011 led to insured losses that were about double the already-high level of 2010, according to industry figures. Although insurers are prohibited from increasing rates to recoup losses from past storms, the losses they suffered in the past several years can be factored into projections of expected future losses that are used to set rates. How much rates could go up this year is hard to predict, but any rate increase would figure to ad no more than a few dollars a month to the cost of a typical policy."

4 Things You Can Do To Prolong Your Life. Wear better shoes? OK - keeping an open mind. I thought this was vaguely interesting; check out the YouTube clip: "Dr. David Agus talks Connie Chung on four things you can do to prolong your life -- take baby aspirin, a statin (like Lipitor), get your flu shot and wear better shoes. 92YU unites the best minds from universities and organizations all over the world and welcomes them to 92Y! Lecturers from the Ivy League and beyond take on the most extraordinary ideas, people and creations of our time."

"Like a good wine, marriage gets better with age - once you learn to keep a cork in it." - Gene Perret

Samsung "Smart Window" Is Like A Giant Transparent iPad. Geekosystem.com has the story: "Whenever you’re cruising through CES announcements and demos, you’re always looking for that one thing that ignites that spark of excitement in your chest, lights up your eyes, and makes you realize that we’re living in the future. Well, the Samsung Smart Window will deliver. The Samsung Smart Window is a window, but it’s a display. It’s a giant transparent touchscreen you can use as a window. It’s a see-through, window iPad. It’s amazing. It only takes a few features to drive home how crazy this technology is. For instance, it comes with a blinds app. If you activate it, you can slowly open and close the digital blinds and affect the amount of actual light that comes in. It’s also a one-way mirror, meaning that you don’t have to be afraid of passersby seeing you or what’s on your screen; they’ll only see themselves."

"Unruly Fliers": Delta Flight Diverts On Champagne Request. Say what? AP and USA Today have the story: "A Delta Air Lines flight from Atlanta to Costa Rica diverted to Tampa last night because of an unruly German couple, The Associated Press reports. The incident came on Delta Flight 413, which departed Atlanta at 6 p.m. ET before making the unscheduled stop in Tampa around 7:34 p.m. ET. Delta spokeswoman Chris Kelly Singley tells AP that the "unruly" husband and wife were removed from the Delta 757 at that time. AP says the couple apparently was upset at meal service on the flight, writing: Tampa International Airport spokeswoman Janet Zink identified the passengers as Peter and Gabriele Strohmaier of Dusseldorf, Germany. She said they were seated in first class and demanding food and champagne and refused to sit down."

The Icy Beach Of Iceland. Neatorama has the photo and explanation. Image courtesy of Ivan Meljac. "Where else but Iceland would you expect to find big chunks of ice on the beach, instead of sand? Behold the (brr!) beautiful beach of Jökulsárlón as photographed by French photographer Ivan Meljac, and featured in Quiet Moments in Iceland's Landscapes by Fotopedia."

"Take time every day to laugh, to think, to cry." - the late, great North Carolina State basketball coach Jimmy Valvano. He died of inoperable cancer in 1993; his remarkable goodbye speech during the 1993 ESPY Award show always brings tears to my eyes. It's definitely worth a look.

Photo courtesy of the AP.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Light snow and flurries. 1-2" snow (more south of MSP metro). Icy roads. Wind chill: -5. Winds: NW 10-15. High near 10

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and cold. Low: 2

WEDNESDAY: Another clipper. More light snow and flurries. High: 15

THURSDAY: More sun. First subzero temperatures of winter? Low: -6. High: 7

FRIDAY: Light snow and flurries - not as numbing. Low: 0. High: 21

SATURDAY: Windy, turning milder. Period of wet snow possible. Low: 18. High: 25

SUNDAY: Sunnier and drier day of the weekend. Low: 22. High: 34

MONDAY: Clouds increase, rain/snow mix at night? Low: 21. High: 33

* A significant storm possible by Tuesday of next week, the greatest potential for accumulating snow January 24=25. The heaviest snow bands may set up south/east of MSP - too early to say with any level of confidence.

Coldest Week of Winter

Yes, I'm going out on a limb. But long-range guidance shows a relatively mild, Pacific-influenced wind flow returning the last week of January into early February. This may be, in fact, the coldest week of winter, a winter that's been downright easy. And it won't get that cold; maybe 1 or 2 nights below zero (first of the year for the metro area). The approach of bitter air will set off a period of light snow today; a quick inch or two greasing up highways. When it's this cold traffic can compress powdery snow into an icy film - black ice will be a real concern into Friday morning. Be careful out there.

The Great Snow Drought of '12 limps on. Less snow could mean a lower risk of spring flooding, but if we don't get a few big, beefy storms by late March soil moisture may be inadequate for spring planting. Lake water levels may fall - we could be in real trouble by summer if the pattern doesn't shift gears fairly soon.

It's too early to panic (or celebrate), but long range guidance is hinting at a real storm early next week, around January 24-25. An early computer run Monday brought enough warm air north for mostly rain, the evening run takes the storm farther south/east, implying all snow - but the heaviest snow bands may set up over southeastern MN and Wisconsin. The truth: it's too early to say, but the maps are definitely starting to look a bit more "interesting".

“ To be without some of the things you want is an indispensable part of happiness." - Bertrand Russell

Climate Stories....

Finding The Polluters: A Step Toward Accountability On Global Warming. From NRDC, the National Resources Defense Council: "A new EPA web tool documents global warming pollution from about 6,700 facilities across the United States, filling a critical gap in the public's right to know about pollution. Polluters have been required to report on toxic chemical emissions for years, but in 2010, for the first time, big industrial polluters were asked to provide information on emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping pollutants. Why is this important? For those of us who track this issue every day, the data is unsurprising. Power plants are far and away the biggest emitters of global warming pollution, responsible for nearly 75 percent of the pie. But making the information specific, local, and easily accessible for the public brings the issue of global warming out of the clouds, so to speak, and down to earth. Knowing who the polluters are, and where they're located, is the first step toward holding them accountable."

Climate Change, Disbelief, And The Collision Between Human And Geological Time. Forbes.com has the story: "Geologic time scales are long – too long for the human mind to really comprehend. Over millions, and tens of millions, and hundreds of millions of years, the Earth has changed from something unrecognizable to the planet we see on maps, plastic globes, and photos from space. The Atlantic Ocean didn’t exist eons ago and it will literally disappear in the future as the continental plates continue to move inch by inch. A visitor from outer space millions of years ago would have looked down upon land masses and land forms unrecognizable today. As John McPhee notes in his book, Assembling California, “For an extremely large percentage of the history of the world, there was no California.” Or North America, China, Australia, Hawai’i, Mt. Everest, Grand Canyon, or any of the other landforms and natural symbols we think of as immutable." Photo above courtesy of safecom.org.au.

Climate Change Skepticism Seeps Into Science Classrooms. The story from the L.A. Times: "A flash point has emerged in American science education that echoes the battle over evolution, as scientists and educators report mounting resistance to the study of man-made climate change in middle and high schools. Although scientific evidence increasingly shows that fossil fuel consumption has caused the climate to change rapidly, the issue has grown so politicized that skepticism of the broad scientific consensus has seeped into classrooms."

Climate Deniers Hit New Low With Vicious Attacks On Scientists. Huffington Post has the story: "The climate deniers are kicking puppies now. That was my reaction when I heard that Katharine Hayhoe was being deluged with hate mail after stories surfaced that she had written a chapter on climate change for Newt Gingrich's upcoming book, a chapter quickly dropped when conservative commentators began making a big fuss about it. Similar attacks have been leveled against MIT scientist Kerry Emanuel following his speech at a forum for Republicans concerned about climate change. The "frenzy of hate" he's received include threats to his wife." Photo above: byronkennard.com.

CATO's Patrick Michaels: Serial Deleter Of Inconvenient Data. ThinkProgress has the story: "Patrick Michaels is a research fellow at the Cato Institute think tank, the chief editor of the website World Climate Report, has been given a climate blog at the business magazine Forbes, and his articles are frequently re-posted at climate “skeptic” blogs like Watts Up With That (WUWT). Despite his clear conflict of interest (Michaels has estimated that 40% of his work is funded by the petroleum industry), many people continue to rely on him as a reliable source of climate information. This is an unwise choice, because Michaels also has a long history of badly distorting climate scientists’ work. In fact, not only does Michaels misrepresent climate research on a regular basis, but on several occasions he has gone as far as to manipulate other scientists’ figures by deleting parts he doesn’t like. Patrick Michaels is a serial deleter of inconvenient data."

Coldest Week of Winter? (March-like again by last week of January)

2012-01-15T21:39:00.000-06:00

40 F. high in the metro Sunday (we missed the 1990 record by only 3 degrees).
23 F. average high in the Twin Cities.
16 F. high a year ago, on January 15, 2011.
+11 F. temperature departure in January. So far the metro area is running 11 degrees warmer than average.
5 F. coldest low temperature so far this winter at MSP (December 9 and January 14)
-4 F. low predicted for Thursday morning, possibly the first subzero of winter for MSP (if so, it would set a record for the latest subzero in modern-day records. Old record for first subzero low is January 18, 2002).

.9": snowfall so far in January in the cities (11.2" for the winter season, to date).
1-2" new snow possible in the Twin Cities late Monday night and Tuesday morning. With temperatures near 10 F. black ice is a real possibility - morning rush hour Tuesday may be a mess.
6-12" snow possible in Seattle by midweek. Yes, life is inherently unfair. Get over it.

7: number of careers the average American worker has during their lifetime.

"Lasting companies know how to re-invent themselves. I think the same might even be said for individuals." - from a blog post about creativity and reinvention below.

"An experience strategy is that collection of activities that an organization chooses to undertake to deliver a series of (positive, exceptional) interactions which, when taken together, constitute an (product or service) offering that is superior in some meaningful, hard-to-replicate way; that is unique, distinct & distinguishable from that available from a competitor." - from a blog post below on "experience strategies" for business.

"He said that it's not enough to have a passion — you have to have a work ethic," she says. "That's been the most life-changing advice that I got, because I had a passion for writing — and I know a lot of other people do, too — but it's not enough to just want something. You have to be able to work for it, too, and put in the hours and the time" - from an NPR article below on self-publishing phenomenon Amanda Hocking, from Austin, MN.

"Family: a social unit where the father is concerned with parking space, the children with outer space,and the mother with closet space." - Evan Esar

NAEFS - NOAA NAEFS - Environment Canada

Warm End To January - North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). Based on multiple weather models, temperatures from January 22-29 (above) will trend well above average across much of North America. We are stuck in a (relatively mild/dry) atmospheric rut that just does not want to quiet. Map upper left is from NOAA, upper right is from Environment Canada.

The Snowy Twin Cities (of Seattle and Tacoma). 2.2" of snow yesterday, and more is on the way. In fact the latest NAM model is hinting at 6-12" of snow for the Seattle area by midweek. Yes, Seattle is getting "our snow".

More Snow In Seattle Than The Twin Cities? That's just...wrong. More details: "Cars and a bus sit stuck on a hill on 24th Ave. E. during a snowstorm in Seattle, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2012. Several inches of snow fell quickly Sunday morning, snarling traffic and clogging roadways. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)."

NOAA Using Extra Measures To Decipher Potential Tuesday Snowstorm. KOMOnews.com's (Partly to Mostly Bloggin' link) in Seattle has more details on what may turn into the biggest snowstorm in recent memory for the Seattle area: "NOAA is going to take some extra measures to get a better idea of how a potential snow storm for Western Washington on Tuesday night might play out. Forecasters have been having difficulty getting a good idea of how the storm will develop because of large inconsistencies in our forecast models. A small difference in storm's track and speed can be the difference between just a few inches of snow and several inches of snow in many spots. So NOAA is sending a plane out over the Pacific Ocean to drop some weather instruments where the storm is developing in an effort to get some better weather data -- much like what they do to get better data on hurricanes when they threaten in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico."

Snowpocalypse photo courtesy of the Anchorage Daily News. Remember when it used to snow like this in the cities? I don't either.

Meanwhile - Tough Times For America's Ski Resorts. There are exceptions: the northern Great Lakes and northern New England have enough snow for skiing and snowboarding. But much of America is still brown: "Skiers ride a lift near hills with very little snow at the Canyons Ski Resort in Park City, Utah, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2012. A mild winter has left many ski resorts thirsty for snow and some have not opened all of the their terrain. (AP Photo/Jim Urquhart)."

Dribs And Drabs of Snow. The GFS model is showing meager snowfall amounts over most of the Upper Midwest through Thursday, maybe an inch or two for central and southern Minnesota. Significant lake-effect snow bands may dump 4-8" downwind of the Great Lakes; more than a foot of much-needed snow from Jackson Hole to Vail, Colorado.

Cosmetic Snowfall For KMSP. The approach of arctic air may set off a quick inch or two of (dry/powdery) snow late Monday night into Tuesday morning, another coating possible Wednesday and Friday - just enough to cover up the grit and the brown.

Status Quo: Storms Detour South/West. NOAA's QPF precipitation forecast shows some 8"+ rainfall amounts from northern California into the Portland, Oregon area. Over 1" of (mostly rain) is predicted from New Orleans to Cleveland.

January 31 Winds Aloft: Still Tracking An Abnormally Strong (and persisten) Westerly Component. 500mb (18,000 foot) winds forecast for January 31 show a northwest wind flow for Minnesota, capable of another quick cool-down as we sail into February. But it's still predominately a Pacific flow vs. a Yukon breeze, meaning temperatures trending above average the last week of January. No extended bouts of bone-chilling, subzero air are in sight looking out 2 weeks or so.

In Search Of Arctic Air. Here is the latest GFS extended out look for the last week of January; 850 mb (3,500 foot) temperatures ranging from -13 C to +3 C. That implies highs mostly in the 30s. Pipe-rupturing, battery-draining air? I just don't see it.

Dueling Teleconnections. We have some disagreements among the long-term indices that signal cold vs. mild. The AO goes negative after January 19, hinting at weaker westerly winds and a return to much colder weather, while the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) now stays positive - suggesting a continuation of milder than average, with a Pacific wind overwhelming the pattern over North America. I tend to believe the NAO, which is trending warmer with each model run; the most bitter air remaining bottled up over central/northern Canada. More from NOAA CPC here.

Between The Devil And The Deep Blue Sea: Why NOAA Shouldn't Be Moved To The Dept. Of Interior. Here's an Op-Ed from the NRDC, the National Resources Defense Council: "There may be no subject that sounds more arcane, dreary and trivial than governmental reorganization. “Just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic” is one popular line of dismissal. But in reality, how the government is organized can have enormous, tangible effects...So what would be so bad about moving NOAA into Interior? Well, it’s a lot like the EPA/DOE example. NOAA brings an independent perspective to key issues that is likely to be muted or lost in Interior. NOAA is primarily a scientific and environmental organization. Interior, historically, is primarily an agency focused on extracting raw materials, and that’s even truer when it comes to its water and oceans portfolios."

Satellites: Young And Old. Here's a story from NASA's Earth Observatory: "This photograph taken from Houston, Texas, juxtaposes Earth’s oldest satellite with one of its youngest. The Moon is thought to have been formed by the impact of a large body (perhaps Mars-sized) with the early Earth approximately 4.6 billion years ago. In contrast, the first components of the International Space Station (ISS) assumed orbit around the Earth in 1998, with assembly completed 13 years later—a significant period of time to us, but the merest fraction of a second in the history of the Moon. While the ISS appears to be fairly close to the Moon’s surface in the image, it’s a trick of perspective."

Airline Delays Down - Passenger Complaints Up In November. One (big) silver lining to the relatively dry, mild weather across most of the USA this winter - fewer delays and weather-related cancellations. USA Today reports: "Airlines had fewer flight delays and cancellations in November, yet passengers continued to complain to the government about service, the Transportation Department reported Thursday. Just two airplanes sat on the tarmac for longer than the government allows. That's a significant decrease from the 18 flights that were stranded on tarmacs in October, when an unusual fall snowstorm pummeled the East Coast."

Taking Stock Of The 2011 Flood. An update on last year's historic North Dakota flooding from the Bismarck Tribune: "There are many rumors circulating in regard to the historic flood that we experienced in the summer of 2011. This letter is submitted to provide property owners and public officials with data to make informed judgments regarding future actions that are so important to preventing the reoccurrence of this event. First: We accept the local flood stage of the river to be 16 feet. Second: We accept that the current capacity of the river at flood stage (16 feet) is 85,000 cubic feet per second. This value is based on records obtained from the North Dakota State Water Commission. These numbers enabled me to flood-route the actual flows in the Missouri River during the 2011 flood period. It showed that had releases on April 1 been increased to 85,000 cfs, and having had the Garrison reservoir drawn down to 1,931.37, there would not have been a flood for those who are protected to river stage 16 feet." Photo credit here.

What Is That Bright Orange Line? Neatorama.com has the rather surprising answer: "That, Neatoramanauts, is the 2,065 miles-long border fence between India and Pakistan: A striking feature is the line of lights, with a distinctly orange hue, snaking across the center of the image. It appears to be more continuous and brighter than most highways in the view. This is the fenced and floodlit border zone between India and Pakistan. The fence is designed to discourage smuggling and arms trafficking. A similar fenced zone separates India’s eastern border from Bangladesh (not visible)." Photo courtesy of Neatorama and the ISS, the International Space Station.

How NPR Killed The Radio Star. The story from MIT Technology Review: "NPR's mobile app isn't just good, it's a joy to use. In a world where most content is strangled by some executive's desire to put advertisements or paywalls between you and accessing your content whenever and however you want it, NPR's alternate funding model and embrace of the web mean that their app lets me get the shows I want when I want them, in their entirety, even if they're currently playing on my radio and technically I'm kind of cheating my local NPR affiliate by skipping around in the online versions of the network's national shows. Now NPR has revealed a new partnership with Ford, which allows voice-activated control of their app through Ford's Sync system, which is part of Ford's overall "digital car" strategy, which has been covered in-depth on TR."

What Is An Experience Strategy? I stumbled upon this (excellent) thought-provoking blog post from johnnyholland.com. Here's an excerpt: "Delivering products or services, or hybrid systems of both, is a complex undertaking that involves many people executing many tasks and activities. Some of these activities are really obvious: the sales staff in your retail store; the product engineer; the call-centre staff. And some are not so obvious: like the person responsible for driving the forklift in the warehouse to move spare parts to where they’re needed; or the person responsible for the servicing of the forklift. Some activities have a much more direct impact on the end customer, but all contribute to that customer’s perception of us and our products. And if a change to an activity is required in order to deliver on your new experience, then that should be mentioned in your strategy."

5 Reasons Companies Fail At Business Model Innovation. If you're not constantly trying to reinvent yourself as a business you'll probably wind up being roadkill, right? Here's an interesting perspective from "It's Saul Connected": "Here, I think, are five important reasons that companies fail at business model innovation:

CEOs don’t really want a new business model.
The most obvious reason companies fail at business model innovation is because CEOs and their senior leadership teams don’t want to explore new business models. They are content with the current one and want everyone in the organization focused on how to improve its performance. The clearest indication that a company and its leaders aren’t interested in business model innovation is when any discussion about emerging business models and disruptive technology is viewed and treated solely as a competitive threat.

Product is king. Nothing else matters.
The lines are blurring between product and service. Business models that are exclusively focused on products are vulnerable to being disrupted by models that blend both product and service to significantly change the value proposition."

Lasting Companies Know How To Reinvent Themselves. Here's a terrific post from a blog called "creativity_unbound" which followed up on Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs: "But one of my favorite lessons doesn’t come from Steve. It’s attributed to Mike Markkula. Upon his official return to Apple in 1997, Jobs fired Markkula from the board and then asked Mike to join him on one of his long walks. Jobs told the former chairman that his goal was to build a company that would endure. He asked Markkula’s advice. Markkula shared this.

“Lasting companies know how to re-invent themselves. Hewlett-Packard had done that repeatedly; it started as an instrument company, then a computer company. Apple has been sideline by Microsoft in the PC business. (by then Apple’s market share had plummeted from 16 percent to four percent). You’ve got to reinvent the company to do some other thing, like consumer products or devices. You’ve got to be like a butterfly and have a metamorphosis."

Discovery Could Lead To An "Exercise Pill". Hallelujah!! - my prayers have been answer, well almost. Pop a pill with my morning coffee and I can gorge on all the donuts I want - no consequences? Doubtful. MIT Technology Review has the tantalizing details: "Researchers have discovered a natural hormone that acts like exercise on muscle tissue—burning calories, improving insulin processing, and perhaps boosting strength. The scientists hope it could eventually be used as a treatment for obesity, diabetes, and, potentially, neuromuscular diseases like muscular dystrophy. In a paper published online today by the journal Nature, the scientists, led by Bruce Spiegelman at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston, showed that the hormone occurs naturally in both mice and humans. It pushes cells to transform from white fat—globules that serve as reservoirs for excess calories—into brown fat, which generates heat."

"Giving up doesn't always mean you are weak. Sometimes it means that you are strong enough to let go." - author unknown.

A Self-Published (Minnesota) Author's $2 Million Cinderella Story. A local Minnesota gal (with no formal literary training) had joined a very elite rank of published authors; NPR has here story here: "Best-selling e-author Amanda Hocking grew up in the small town of Austin, Minn., which, she says, is known for Spam — as in the food, not the email kind. "We invented Spam," the 27-year-old novelist tells weekends on All Things Considered host Guy Raz. Hocking's dad was a truck driver. Her mom was a waitress. Even as a very young child, she was kind of a natural storyteller — especially when it came to fantasy stories — stories about dragons, unicorns, pirates and more."

The Power Of Being Vulnerable. Hey, it's a slow day - I can (hopefully) get away with including a few more web sites that made me slow down and actually think, not just react. Thinking is good, right? Here's an excerpt from Six Pixels of Separation - The Blog: "The heart and soul of great art is the ability for the artist to be vulnerable. Be it performing a song for the first time or walking into a massive business meeting with a big idea, the only way that great ideas take form is when the person (or people) who are creating it are willing to be vulnerable. Think about it this way: the majority of website content that we see, basically sucks. OK, maybe that's being harsh, some of it is ok to passable, but most of it is void of all spirit and heart. It is jargon-filled buzzwords that percolate from the page because it has been sanitized through iterations and different people. Through these revisions, the heart and soul are either lost (or were never there to begin with because the company wants to use big, masculine and powerful words)."

"You Have To Embrace The Suck." Yes, Paul is off on a tangent today, but I'm trying to expand my normal range of reading and authors, opening up to some new ideas and concepts. Here's an interesting quote on the utter futility of goal-setting by Leo Babauta, founder of Zenhabits, in an interview at the eye-opening blog, "In Over Your Head" (rated PG for salty language at times), but fascinating nonetheless: "As I looked deeper into what’s necessary and what’s not, I started to question the need for goals — are they really essential? What would happen if you gave them up? Are they really the driving force behind what we accomplish? I’ve found that they are unnecessary — without goals, you’ll still work on things you’re passionate about, and do fun fitness activities and other things that excite you. Goals take credit for our accomplishments, but our passion and interest is what really make things happen. Goals also add a lot of administration — goal setting, tracking, making sure you’re sticking to the goal, finding next actions, etc. Goals stress us out — if we’re not on track or don’t reach them, are we failures? Goals also fix us on a certain path, when in truth there are many possible paths and staying on one predetermined path with a fixed destination is an artificial limitation that’s completely unnecessary and unnatural."

Oops! A Forecast For "Sunday's Chargers-Lions Playoff Game"?? Deadspin.com has the remarkable story and video. "What happened to producers and editors (and fact-checkers?) "Consider how many people are involved in the production of a simple weather forecast on CNN. You have the meteorologist, for sure, but you also have the producer who loads the "wx" into the script/rundown, and the graphics techs who run the system that creates what you see on your screen. Not a single one of those people ~~were~~ was able to spot such a ridiculous error as thinking that a Chargers-Lions playoff game could even exist that was not the Super Bowl, or that the Chargers did not even make the playoffs and the Lions were knocked out last week. It's all so brain-stakingly stupid, and yet there it was, at 7:11 this morning Eastern Time, on CNN. How does this happen?"

“If you hire people who are smaller than you are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. If you hire people who are bigger than you are, we shall become a company of giants. Hire big people, people who are better than you,” Ogilvy demanded. “Pay them more than yourself if necessary.” - David Ogilvy, advertising legend, from a post at Strategy + Business.

Super Sunday. 17 degrees above average? The Twin Cities missed an all-time record by only 3 degrees. Highs ranged from 35 at Eau Claire to 38 at St. Cloud to 40 in the Twin Cities and 45 at Redwood Falls. Another early taste of March.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Mostly cloudy, turning breezy and colder. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 23 (falling during the day).

MONDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, bitter again. Low: 7

TUESDAY: 1-2" powdery snow possible - roads may be icy. Light snow tapers. High: 10

WEDNESDAY: Numbing, more flurries, another coating. Low: 2. High: 13

THURSDAY: First subzero low of winter? More sun, feels like January again. Low: -4. High: 14

FRIDAY: Light snow, 1-2" possible. Low: 9. High: 24

SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, welcome thaw. Low: 12. High: 35

SUNDAY: Some sun, March-like temperatures return. Low: 23. High: 41

Meaning Of Winter?

"When you look at your life the greatest happinesses are family happinesses" said Joyce Brothers. Last Friday Kerri Miller, host of "Midmorning" asked her radio audience what winter meant to them. I gave a rambling, inane answer about "winter being the mother of invention", bitter cold forcing us to be ingenious to survive, etc. A far better answer came from listeners. "Winter is a time to slow down, relax, reflect; more time for conversation and bonding with family members." I like that, and suspect it's true. Disconnect. Read a book, argue about politics (or the weather), finish a puzzle. Wintertime is family-time.

Welcome to what I suspect will be the coldest week of winter, a winter that has been amazingly tame. A winter that has yet to see a subzero low in the metro. And I'm not convinced we'll see zero in the Twin Cities by midweek. It's conceivable we could go through January with no subzero lows. Only January 1990 and 2006 were subzero-free at KMSP.

We cool off today; highs from 9-15 F. Tuesday thru Thursday, rebounding into the 30s and 40s next weekend.

Snow? 1-2 inches Tuesday, a couple inches Friday. The last 10 days of January may feel like early March. Wow.

Climate Stories....

How Likely Is A Runaway Greenhouse Effect On Earth? MIT Technology Review has the story: "Sometime in the last few billion years, disaster struck one of Earth's nearest neighbours. Planetary geologists think there is good evidence that Venus was the victim of a runaway greenhouse effect which turned the planet into the boiling hell we see today. A similar catastrophe is almost certain to strike Earth in about 2 billion years, as the Sun increases in luminosity. But that raises an important question: is it possible that we could trigger a runaway greenhouse effect ourselves by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere?"

"Simple Measures" Curb Climate Change. PressTV has the details: "Led by Drew Shindell of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, the study provided clues to help health improvement and boost agricultural production. Scientists say cutting down CO2 emissions and controlling methane gas and soot, also known as black carbon, can diminish the speed of global warming, increase global crop yields by up to 135 million metric tons per season and prevent hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year. While all regions of the world would benefit, many countries in Asia and the Middle East could have the largest portion of health and agricultural gains from emissions reductions. "

Marc Morano Abets E-Mailed Threats Of Violence. The deniers are resorting to increasingly desperate techniques, like publishing personal information (including e-mails) of leading climate scientists, which resulted in death threats for Dr. Kerry Emanuel and his wife. Scholars and Rogues has the story: "Marc Morano, former environmental communications director to Senator Jim Inhofe and the Republicans on the Senate Environment and Public Works committee, recently published on his Climate Depot website the email address of conservative MIT climate scientist and hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel. As a result, Emanuel was deluged with hate mail that not only threatened his life but also threatened his wife. (MotherJones has the full story.) Other climate scientists and their family members have been threatened with torture, rape, and murder in the past, so it’s likely that similar threats were involved here."

Sunday Thaw (subzero lows by midweek)

2012-01-14T22:58:00.000-06:00

20 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.

23 F. average high for January 14.
18 F. high temperature a year ago, January 14, 2001.
1/2" snow fell at MSP International yesterday.
1" snow on the ground in the cities; the least snow on January 15 since 2006.
11.2" snow so far this winter season. Last year we had already picked up 52.4" snow at KMSP.
-37 F. record low for this morning, set in 1888.

Snow on the ground in the Twin Cities as of January 15:
2012: 1"
2011: 15"
2010: 10"
2009: 7"
2008: 5"
2007: 4"
2006: 1"

107 F. "low temperature" at Khasab Airport, Oman, on June 27, 2011 - new worldwide record for warmest nighttime low temperature. Airport photo courtesy of panoramio.com. Details below.

33.5% of the USA covered in snow, up from 19% one week ago. Average for January 15: closer to 50%

322.1" snow at Valdez, Alaska, 168.1" above average, to date. Photo above courtesy of AP. More details below.

The Boat Show is coming to the Minneapolis Convention Center the end of next week. Can spring be far behind? You 'betcha! Details at The Boat Show's Facebook page.

St. Paul Winter Carnival runs from January 26 to February 5. Check out the web site. Right now I don't see any bitter cold during that period, in fact the chance of snow may increase as we head into early February. Then again, at the rate we're going, that may be wishful thinking. Details below.

2011: 10th warmest year on record, worldwide, but warmest on record with a La Nina underway. Details below.

7 new national, all-time heat records around the world in 2011. Details from Dr. Jeff Masters below.

40% Arctic ice has shrank roughly 40% from 1980 to 2007. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth.

"Those who can...do. Those who can't...criticize (or consult)." - author unknown

Mind-Numbing Snowfall Amounts. Thanks to Johnny Kelly for sharing this tweet. 322.1" of snow so far in Valdez? Amazing. Schoos were closed late last week, for the first time in recent memory - not because school buses couldn't get through - but because officials were concerned about record amounts of snow on school rooftops, and the ongoing risk of roof collapses.

Where Winter Really Set Up Shop. Phillyweather.net has more details on the mind-boggling amounts of snow that have smothered Alaska in recent weeks: "Snow on steroids, if you will. The root cause has been the position of a cold trough over Alaska this winter, which has kept them in the proverbial freezer as the polar vortex has been over them much of the cold season. This has set the storm track up so storms track just south of Cordova and Valdez, keeping them cold enough but also in the right position to bring a lot more snow than usual. Anchorage is on pace for its snowiest winter on record and is approaching 100" of snow for the winter so far, more than the 61" of snow they picked up last winter. Alaska has been the one place in the United States where the pattern has locked and loaded for winter chill and snow...the rest of us as a byproduct of that are mild and relatively snowless so far this winter."

Buried In Snow. Some of the photos and videos coming out of Alaska are pretty incredible: "Snowfall outlines the familiar shape of a VW Beetle parked in Anchorage, Alaska on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012. Anchorage has received an official 81.3 inches of snow at the airport measuring station as of Tuesday. Meteorologist Shaun Baines said that makes it the snowiest period for Anchorage since records have been kept. (AP Photo/The Anchorage Daily News, Bill Roth)."

Where All The Snow Has Gone. Oh, to have a snowplow business...in Alaska this winter: "A road sign in Anchorage's Glen Alps neighborhood is dwarfed by a wall of snow almost eight feet tall on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012. The National Weather Service is predicting a total snowfall of 8 to 16 inches today, putting Anchorage on track to have the snowiest winter on record. (AP Photo/Loren Holmes)."

Serious Lake Effect Snows. Snow lovers now have a favored destination: Gile, Wisconsin, with nearly 3 feet of (mostly lake effect) snow on the ground. More details from WeatherNation: "Check out a sampling of snow totals from the past 24 hours! Gile, WI takes the cake with nearly 3-feet of heavy snow!! The lake effect snow machine continues to crank in some coastal communities along the Great Lakes, with the heaviest expected between Cleveland, OH and Jamestown, NY."

Winter Carnival Cancels Snow Sculpture Contest. Welcome to an "all-or-nothing" winter. Either it snows 20 feet (Alaska) or you're faced with brown ground and unstable ice (Minnesota). The Star Tribune reports on long faces in St. Paul: "The snowless, brown State Fairgrounds have put a halt to the St. Paul Winter Carnival's annual snow sculpture contest. On Saturday, organizers announced that this year's contest, which was slated for Jan. 29 through Feb. 6, is a no-go thanks to no snow. "It's unfortunate we're not able to do it this year, but we needed a lot of snow," said Steve Gurney, an organizer with the Imperial Order of Fire and Brimstone, a group of past Winter Carnival Vulcans who put on the contest. In past snow-lacking years, organizers have hauled in snow to keep the event going. Gurney said that they spoke with area recreational areas to haul in snow again this year, but the snowless fairgrounds would have needed four dump trucks hauling snow for three days to make up for this year's unseasonable weather."

A "Glancing Blow" Of Arctic Air Next Week. Yes, we'll experience about 2-3 fairly uncomfortable days next week with highs in single digits, maybe 2 nights at or below zero (for the first time all winter). But the core of the coldest air, the really nasty -20 to -40 F. air, sails off a few hundred miles north of Minnesota. I suspect we'll pick up a couple of subzero nights in February, but January is the month where (historically) we experience the longest, coldest stretches of subzero fun. This year - I just don't see it.

7 National All-Time Heat Records Set In 2011. In 2010 a total of 20 different nations set all-time record highs around the word. Dr. Jeff Masters has some remarkable statistics in his Wunderblog. Here's a brief excerpt: "Here, then, are the most most notable extreme temperatures globally in 2011, courtesy of weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera:

Hottest temperature in the world in 2011: 53.3°C (127.9°F) in Mitrabah, Kuwait, August 3.

Coldest temperature in the world in 2011: -80.2°C (-112.4°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, September 18.

Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 49.4°C (120.9°F) at Roebourne, Australia, on December 21.

Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -67.2°C (-89°F) at Summit, Greenland, March 18. This is also the coldest March temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere.

Hottest undisputed 24-hour minimum temperature in world history: A minimum temperature of 41.7°C (107°F) measured at Khasab Airport in Oman on June 27."

USA Snowcover Up To 33.5% Last week's storm dumped significant snow from eastern Iowa and Wisconsin into northern New England, bringing the percentage of America experiencing any level of snow up to 33.5% - the highest amount so far in January. Map courtesy of NOAA's NOHRSC division.

Snowfall Outlook For Upper Midwest? Dribs And Drabs. The forecast through midday Thursday calls for little more than an inch or two of accumulation for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin (best chance early Tuesday as much colder air arrives). This map extends through midday Thursday - long range guidance is hinting at a couple inches Thursday night into Friday morning. Again - don't hold your breath. The atmosphere just doesn't want to snow this year.

Bleak Times For Snow Lovers. How many different (annoying) ways can I say: "little snow in the outlook"? All the models bring a light snowfall into town Monday night into Tuesday morning. With temperatures in single digits the snow/rain ration may be pushing 30/1, so it won't take much moisture to get a quick couple inches of fluff. Another chance comes Friday as milder air pushes back into Minnesota.

Looks Like Winter Again. Here's a photo from Hayward, Wisconsin, after the recent 4-6" snowfall. The farther north/east you travel away from the Twin Cities metro, the better the odds of running into significant snow on the ground.

Still No Strong (Negative) Signal In AO and NAO. Meteorologists look at various forcings ranging from La Nina to blocking patterns and "oscillations", including the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Both of these have been strongly positive in recent months, reaching record values at times - meaning westerly winds so strong/persistent that bitter Siberian air has been unable to penetrate southward to the USA. Last week it appeared these indices might be going negative, meaning a weakening of the westerlies, and a better chance of cold (and snow). But now the outlook is murky; both AO and NAO fall to near zero, but I still don't see a strong, negative trend which might imply a return of sustained cold and snowy weather to Minnesota. More from NOAA's CPC here.

Looking Ahead: Mild End To January? After bottoming out next week (I'm going out on a limb predicting this will be the coldest week of the winter, but that's my gut) a zonal, Pacific flow resumes the last week of January, meaning more 30s, even a few 40s. But I'm seeing more "troughing" in the western USA, which may create a more favorable environment for snow as we head into early February. Wishful thinking? We'll see - but I think/hope we'll pick up a few significant snowstorms in February and March. For the sake of not only snow lovers, but our ongoing drought, soil moisture and Minnesota farmers/gardeners - I sure hope we do.

Last Week Of January: Milder (And Stormier?) Kind of ironic - just about the time we finally get some moisture into Minnesota it may be warm enough aloft for a rain/snow mix, the best chance of precipitation between January 26-29. That's way out on the horizon, but note the Max Temps predicted for the last week of January: with the exception of a fleeting cool-down around Jan. 24, highs are consistently in the 20s and 30s - we could even sample 40 the last few days of the month.

What Will February 2012 Bring? I have no idea. That's the honest answer - my crystal ball is malfunctioning. But this winter reminds me (a lot) of 2002. That's the year we only had 2 subzero lows - it was amazingly mild. The graphic above shows a review of February, 2002, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office. As you can see temperatures trended well above average with numerous 40s, even some 50s. I'm not saying we'll experience a February quite that unusual, but (historically) Minnesota's coldest weather comes in January and early February. My hunch: a continuation of drier and milder than average. Don't buck the trends.

Extreme Weather Of The Week (Photos). Huffington Post has a good recap of another wild week of weather, nationwide: "This week's weather was definitely extreme in some areas. In the U.S. Midwest, the first major snow storm of the winter left commuters facing a sloppy morning ride. Ski areas and winter-dependent businesses welcomed the snow, however. According to Scientific American, this winter's mild temperatures and lack of snow can be blamed on the North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on the jet stream. Alaska, however, has had no shortage of snow. Anchorage is on pace for the snowiest winter since record-keeping began. This winter, the city has already received over 80 inches of snow. The town of Cordova, Alaska has had to order more snow shovels to dig out from over 15 feet of snow that has fallen recently."

Tornado Tourism: New Map Guides Visitors To The Sights Of The Storm. KY3.com in Springfield, Missouri has more details: "JOPLIN, Mo. - In the days after the storm, city officials and devestated homeowners urged gawkers to stay away. There was a concern so many tourists could get in the way of rescue and recovery operations. But now, sightseers are getting the welcome mat- make that the welcome map. The Joplin Convention and Visitors Bureau is distributing a new ‘tornado tourism’ map. It can be picked up, for free, at several local hotels and tourism centers. “It is natural for people to want to come and see what’s happened,” said resident Kristen Moore, whose home suffered damage when the EF5 twister tore through town."

A Miami Sunrise. Yes, a couple of days in south Florida might cure me. Thanks to meteorologist Bay Scroggins, our Miami correspondent, for reminding us what palm trees look like.

Director Of The National Hurricane Center, Bill Reed, To Retire. NBCmiami has the story: "Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center located in Miami, announced Friday that he would retire on June 1 in a letter to staff and management. In the letter, Read, 62, explained that he chose his retirement date to be in the midst of hurricane season because there were opportunities he wanted to pursue in the summer but also because he wanted his successor to jump right into the job. “I believe it would be a better transition for a new director to first work the hurricane season, then tackle the important off season activities armed with a season’s experience,” he wrote. "

Insurance Companies Raising Rates For Homeowners Insurance. The Seattle Times has the story: "NEW YORK — Allstate, Travelers and State Farm are among insurers raising homeowners' rates after damage from natural disasters defied industry projections. Allstate, the No. 2 U.S. home insurer, boosted prices for its namesake brand of home policies by 5.6 percent in the nine months through Sept. 30 and has said more increases are coming. Travelers is raising rates after re-evaluating U.S. storm risk. State Farm, the largest U.S. home insurer, has charged homeowners more nationwide for three straight years."

Unusually Chilly Stratosphere Behind 2011's Record Arctic Ozone Hole. NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine has the story: "Check the fine print on many cans of hairspray or shaving cream these days, and you’ll probably find a reassurance that the product you are holding contains “No CFCs or chemicals known to harm the ozone layer.” Located in the stratosphere, the ozone layer protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation. To stop ozone destruction, chemical manufacturers phased out the production of CFCs (short for chlorofluorocarbons) over the past two decades. So why is it that this past spring, scientists observed the largest, most severe ozone destruction ever witnessed in the Arctic since records began in 1978? In part, it’s because CFCs stick around in the atmosphere for a very long time. But the maps above reveal the main reason this winter’s Arctic ozone loss was so much worse than it normally is: unusually persistent cold temperatures."

Mystery Of The Moving Antarctic Lakes. NewScientist has an intriguing story: "RIVERS and mountains can move given enough time, but they don't normally move half a kilometre every year. Yet that is exactly what is happening to a bizarre group of Antarctic lakes. And the lakes seem to be moving far faster than the ice shelf on which they sit. The 11 lakes are on the edge of the George VI ice shelf, a banana-shaped sheet of floating ice sandwiched between the Antarctic Peninsula and Alexander Island. They were first spotted in the 1970s but it was only last year that their wanderlust was identified."

5 Ways For Start-Ups To Grow Their Brands On Twitter. Here's a timely article from techcrunch.com: "Last week I began an effort to answer the questions I get asked most frequently by entrepreneurs, starting with how to create an early-stage pitch deck. Today, I address a topic as relevant for early stage startups (vying for consumer attention) as it is for more mature companies (focused on customer relationships): How to grow your brand on Twitter? Twitter is the ultimate marketing platform. But the scale of Twitter activity is so extraordinary (250 million tweets per day) that it is quite easy to get lost in the noise… particularly if you are an early-stage startup and/or an emerging brand. Separating yourself from the masses really begins with the recognition that Twitter is first and foremost a platform for conversation. If you believe that, you avoid the mistake most brands make: treating Twitter as a mechanism to push content rather than create engagement."

The 12 Coolest Things We Saw At CES. Time Techland has a review: "#1). "Why it’s cool: At 5.3 inches, it’s either a huge Android phone or a pocketable Android tablet, yet it’s only about as thick as the iPhone. Aside from its size, the Galaxy Note stands out by attempting to resurrect the ill-fated stylus. This one’s much more than a simple plastic stick, though: Its pen strokes are detailed enough for complex sketches. As Project Runway winner Anya Ayoung-Chee told me, “I love it. If I had this, I really would be able to use it for all of my sketching.”

Notable specs: 1280×800-resolution screen; 4G LTE connection; corporate security features."

Consumption Makes Us Sad? Science Says We Can Be Happy With Less. This story struck a nerve. It's amazing how much (crap) we all accumulate over time; I don't know about you - but I feel liberated when I get rid of some of that stuff, especially when I can donate it. The Daily Beast has the story: "How much stuff is enough stuff? At what point should we worry a bit less about getting and spending and devote more time and energy to other things? As government austerity measures, shrinking incomes, and postholiday bills make us feel the squeeze on our wallets, it’s an especially good time to ask questions like these. The holidays should be putting us in mind to savor our close relations with friends and family and to ask ourselves what we can do to ease the burdens of others. Instead they seem mostly to add stress. Gift buying adds to our to-do lists even though our plates are already overfull of other responsibilities and our bank accounts, in these hard times, are perilously close to empty. The holidays should be a time of joy, but they seem, increasingly, to be a time of misery." Photo credit here.

Fox Affiliate Weatherman Fired Over Real-Life "Hangover" Tale In Playboy. I know John Bolaris - he's actually a very solid meteorologist, in my humble opinion. Sorry to see him swept up in this sordid tale. He has (male model) good looks, and (allegedly) this may have gotten him into a bit of trouble. The Hollywood Reporter has the sordid details: "Philadelphia weatherman John Bolaris lost $43,712.25, his job and, arguably, his dignity from one fateful trip to Miami Beach. Following a real-life version of Warner Bros.’ The Hangover films, Bolaris shopped his story -- at least what he could remember of it -- to several outlets including Playboy, which published a salacious tell-all detailing how the weatherman was drugged by the Russian mob while on vacation. Bolaris was suspended by his employer, Fox 29, for allegedly leaking the story to the Philadelphia Daily News. In late December, he was officially let go...." Photo above right courtesy of philly.com.

* Gawker.com has a more salacious version of the story here. A cautionary tale indeed.

"The aging process has you firmly in its grasp if you never get the urge to throw a snowball." - Doug Larson

Cosmetic Snowfall. It was just enough snow to remind us that it's January, more of a decorative snow, a candy-coating of white, officially 1/2" in the Twin Cities (we have a whole INCH of snow on the ground now!) Highs ranged from 13 at Hibbing to 19 at St. Cloud, 20 in the Twin Cities and 25 at Alexandria, a hint of the milder air that arrives today.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Partly sunny, a welcome thaw. Winds: S 10. High: 37

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, above average temperatures. Low: 20

MONDAY: Cloudy, windy, falling temperatures. High: 23 (falling during the day).

MONDAY NIGHT: Light snow developing - roads may be icy late. Low: 4

TUESDAY: 1-2+" burst of light, powdery snow. Black ice? High: 10

WEDNESDAY: Bitter, lingering flurries - still icy. First subzero reading of winter for MSP? Low: -1. High: 11

THURSDAY: More flurries, still very slick. Low: -4. High: 9

FRIDAY: More sun, still chilly - but not nearly as numbing. Low: 8. High: 23

SATURDAY: Windy and milder, rain/snow mix up possible. Low: 23. High: near 30

"Doppler Douglas"

True confession: I didn't invent Doppler. I wish I had. Not sure where that rumor came from, but it's kind of funny how many people come up to me in public and thank me for Doppler. The reality: I've been fascinated by the intersection of weather and technology, blessed to be able to attract smart programmers able to turn my hair-brained daydreams into actual products & services. For the record, we launched 3-D radar for TV stations (EarthWatch) and Doppler/maps on cell phones (Digital Cyclone). My hunch: soon everyone will have a personalized, "always-on" weather channel for their TVs, tablets and smartphones. Stay tuned.

The last 2 years have been startling. I'm seeing things I never thought I'd see in my career: a huge spike in records. It's as if Mother Nature picked up a remote control, cranked up the volume, and put America's weather extremes on fast-forward.

Next week will probably be the coldest of winter, a winter that has been downright tame. Expect 3 days of single digit highs, maybe 1 or 2 nights below zero. Not so bad. The approach of arctic air sets off 1-3 inches of snow Tuesday; black ice may be an issue. But no prolonged subzero air is in sight.

Westerly winds aloft return in 1 week; more 30s the last week of January. A stormier, potentially snowier pattern for early February? A distinct possibility. Then again we're in a drought. Don't get your hopes up too high."

"Football is, after all, a wonderful way to get rid of your aggressions...without going to jail."

- Heywood Hale Brown

Climate Stories...

Global Temperature Trends. No, I don't see any evidence of warming. It's all in your imagination. Someone has cooked the books - it's a global conspiracy, an attempt to enrich Al Gore and climate scientists with more research grants! Sorry, I'm temporarily off my meds. NOAA's NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) has more details on the graph above: "Land surface temperatures are available from the Global Historical Climate Network-Monthly (GHCN-M). Sea surface temperatures are determined using the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) analysis. ERSST uses the most recently available International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and statistical methods that allow stable reconstruction using sparse data. The monthly analysis begins January 1854, but due to very sparse data, no global averages are computed before 1880. With more observations after 1880, the signal is stronger and more consistent over time."

Global Warming: Revenge Of The Atmosphere. Are changes in the Arctic resulting in lighter winds over North America, slowing down weather systems, increasing the potential for prolonged floods (or droughts?) The Summit County Citzens Voice has the story: "With Arctic sea ice shrinking fast — losing 40 percent of its mass between 1980 and 2007 — widespread effects on climate and weather are inevitable, according to Jennifer Francis, with Rutgers University Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences. “How can it not affect the weather? It’s such a huge loss in the Earth’s system,” Francis said, speaking Jan. 13 and the Glenn Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit in Breckenridge, Colorado. Discussing the link between rapid climate changes in the Arctic and weather patterns in mid-latitudes, Francis said her most recent research points to a direct link between changes over the Arctic and mid-latitude weather patterns driven by the jet stream. "

A Short-Cut To Restraining Climate Change? The story from The Energy Collective: "My RSS news feeds are simply bursting at the seams with the news that scientists have figured out that by concentrating on non-CO2 greenhouse-effect emissions we can get a pretty big and speedy bang for the buck. Can we slow down the victory parade for just a moment and think about this? A pretty representative article on the development comes from Anfrew Freedman at Climate Central, Groundbreaking New Study Shows How to Reduce Near-Term Global Warming: Let’s face it — the prospects for containing global climate change by slashing emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are looking rather bleak these days. International treaty talks are proceeding at a snail’s pace, and after dipping during the global recession, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) — the most important greenhouse gas — from the energy sector climbed to record levels this year, and studies show that the effects of climate change, such as sea level rise, are now expected to be much worse than previously thought."

Where Is The Greed In Climate Change Markets? Huffington Post has more details: "Investors representing staggering sums of money gathered at the headquarters of United Nations to hear a day of discussions on climate risk and energy solutions this week. The packed room included bankers, pension fund executives, policy-makers and the usual crowd of climate change professionals largely made up of consultants that cycle in and out of public and private organizations wearing different hats but often propounding the same message. Their message is one that seemed welcome in the last decade -- that markets could be harnessed to solve climate change problems, that a price on carbon emissions would be good not just for health but for businesses currently facing (in the oft-quoted Nicholas Stern phrase) "a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen."

Climate Change Activists Need To Talk About Population Too. National Geographic reports: “The environment does not exist as a sphere separate from human actions, ambitions, and needs, and attempts to defend it in isolation from human concerns have given the very word ‘environment’ a connotation of naivety in some political circles.” These words come from the foreword of “Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development,” a landmark United Nations report that was written when the world’s population reached five billion. The report triggered the 1992 “Earth Summit” in Rio De Janeiro and a number of United Nations treaties and agreements all focusing on sustainable development."