More Floods (and why we may have to adapt to climate change)

Invasion! Do you have any Boxelder bugs swarming around your place? We are in the process of being INVADED out here at WeatherNation - they're everywhere! These harmless bugs don't bite, they aren't a risk to people, pets or plants - they tend to spend their summers munching away contentedly up in nearby trees - but in the autumn they try to get ready for the winter to come by getting INSIDE homes or buildings (or cars for that matter). Sunny, southern exposures tend to be more vulnerable to these pests - more tips from the University of Minnesota Entomology Department here.

Ah, The Memories! What a September: 5.53" of rain, nearly twice as much as normal, an unusual number of severe weather outbreaks, a handful of tornadoes, and last week's historic flooding over southern Minnesota, the worst flooding since 2004. See a recap of the month from NOAA here.

October Preview. There is no such thing as "average" weather. You know that already, but if you're interested in the normal highs/lows/precipitation and the records for October, day by day, you're in luck. We should see our first frost within the first 10 days of October, our first snow flurries by the third week of October, maybe a little accumulating snow up north by the end of the month. Something to look forward to. Data courtesy of the MN State Climate Office.

Holding Their Breath. The New York City subway system has 700 pumps to keep water off the tracks - on a sunny, dry day these pumps pull at estimated 13 million gallons of water out of the subway system! The pumps can handle up to 1.5"/hour, but the tropical remains of "Nicole" were forecast to dump as much as 2-4"/hour on metro New York Thursday. More from Gizmodo here.

Fore! Gurgle Gurgle. My dad (Volker) took this picture of a nearby golf course (Bent Creek) outside Lancaster, PA - reeling from as much as 6-8" of rain yesterday. The small stream running through the course became a raging river - there were hundreds of reports of flooded intersections and underpasses, stranded motorists - much of the east picked up 2-3 MONTH'S worth of rain in less than 18 hours. Thanks Dad.

Jamaica Flooding and Tornadoes. The tropical wave that went on to become Tropical Storm Nicole delivered a soggy, windy blow to the island of Jamaica several days ago - home video showing what 8" of rain in less than 36 hours can do here.

More Tornadoes In Unusual Places. The soggy remains of Tropical Storm Nicole raced up the east coast Thursday, drenching many coastal regions with 3-6" or more of rain, and a few (rare) late-season tornadoes. This funnel was spotted near Norfolk, Virginia - courtesy of Twitter.

Better Than Advertised. It's generally ok when the forecast turns out better than expected. We got the "sunny" part right, but temperatures were a good 5 degrees warmer than expected, peaking at 72 in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 73 at Redwood Falls. Not a bad way to end the month of September.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

Today: Clouds increase, slight chance of a PM shower/sprinkle, especially north/east of the Twin Cities. Winds: N 10-20. High: 64

Friday Evening: Gradual clearing, dry with a chilly breeze (jacket weather). Temperatures falling through the 50s.

Saturday: A mix of clouds and sun, breezy and cool. Winds: N 10-15. High: 55

Saturday night: Mostly clear with diminishing winds. Potential for the first frost of the season in the outlying suburbs. Low: 38

Sunday: A better day. Bright sun, light breeze, a few degrees warmer. Winds: S 8-13. High: 62

Monday: Blue sky, beautiful! High: 67

Tuesday: Sunny and spectacular - one of the nicer days of autumn. High: near 70

Wednesday: Hanging on to sunshine - still dry and lukewarm. High: 71

Thursday: Sun fades a bit behind increasing high clouds, still balmy. High: 69

"Paul, why does the forecast change?" It's one of the well-known frustrations of tracking the weather here in Minnesota, or anywhere for that matter. You check out the 7-Day on a Tuesday and the weekend forecast looks promising. Check back in 2 days later and - what! - how did a shower get into the Saturday outlook? The accuracy rate for the "Tomorrow Forecast" is holding at about 87% (nationwide average), and that hasn't improved much in the last 30 years, in spite of Doppler radar and supercomputers. Although there is some skill out to about 15-20 days (better than 50/50, better than the flip of a coin) there is no doubt that by the time you get to the 7th day of a 7-Day Outlook the accuracy is closer to 60% (or even lower than that, especially during the winter months, when systems move faster, increasing the potential for a "busted outlook").

The reality: we get new computer data from the NAM/WRF 4 times a day, 4 new computer runs, based on the latest, greatest (real-time) conditions. Our confidence level goes up when the computer models all pretty much agree, but oftentimes there are big discrepencies from one model to the next, or one model RUN to the next. We look for trends ("each computer run takes the storm farther and farther south") - that can be helpful. But in the end it comes down to "which model do you trust the most - which computer tends to do the best job in a given scenario?" All computers have weakenesses and biases (because, after all, they're only as good as the people programming them). The physics in the computer models is good, long-range accuracy is improving by about 1% every year, but there are problems. The math that describes how the atmosphere SHOULD work isn't a perfect representation of how the atmosphere really works, the "fluid" of air floating overhead. And there are limits to how accurately we can input the current (initialization) data - a snapshot of what is happening right now - worldwide. Over oceans we rely on satellites for much of the data - even over land areas weather balloons are only launched twice a day. In other words there are gaps in the data. I tell people it's a little like doing a crossword puzzle with many of the pieces missing! Junk in - junk out. If you put incomplete or erroneous data into the supercomputer you're going to get a flawed forecast.

The USA still has the best weather service in the world. We see more severe weather than any nation on Earth (China and Russia are #2 and #3).  Yes, we are #1! In spite of that less than 100 people in a given year will lose their lives to hurricanes and tornadoes, which is pretty miraculous when you think about it. Flooding and heat claims more lives, but most Americans have access to a continuous stream of weather forecasts and warnings that most people around the globe could only dream of. We shouldn't take that for granted (our tax dollars are put to pretty good use, in my humble opinion). Some meteorologists believe that the Europeans have a more accurate weather model, the European "ECMWF" may be a bit more accurate than NOAA's "GFS" global model, but that's open to some debate.

Predicting the future is complex. Ask any economist, stock broker or CIA analyst. Billions of variables - computer help to sort through all these variables, but they're not perfect, and never will be. That said, I'd like to believe that the odds of getting caught flat-footed by another "Armistice Day Blizzard" are small - I don't think you could have an EF-4 tornado roaring through the suburbs of Minneapolis without some sort of warning being issued in advance. All this newfangled technology IS saving lives every year, but there is a limit (financial and mathematical) as to how accurate the 7-Day Outlook will ever get. Sounds depressing seeing this on paper, but it's the truth.

Disclaimer aside, today won't be as spectacular as Thursday was, an approaching "Alberta Clipper" (it's baaaack!) pushing a canopy of clouds and a few embedded showers and sprinkles across the state, from northwest to southeast, as the day goes on. The best chance of 15-30 minutes of rain will come this afternoon, skies probably starting to clear in time for evening high school football games, but grab a jacket: temperatures will quickly fall through the 50s, and a stiff north wind will make it feel cooler than that.

By Saturday there will be NO doubt in your mind that it's October. In spite of some "in and out" sunshine temperatures will be stuck in the low to mid 50s, the wind will make it feel like 40s, and the stage may be set for the first frost of the season by Sunday morning, especially in the outlying suburbs, well away from the 494-694 beltway around the Twin Cities, well away from the warmth of the "urban heat island" which can keep the downtowns and close-in suburbs as much as 5-10 degrees warmer on a clear, calm night. Concrete and asphalt retains some of the sunny warmth of the daylight hours, slowly releasing or re-radiating the warmth during the nighttime hours, keeping Crystal, Edina and Maplewood as much as 10 degrees warmer than Elk River, Delano, Lakeville and Stillwater. As the center of a high pressure bubble drifts directly overhead late Saturday night winds should diminish, setting the stage for a frosty coating of white on many suburban lawns Sunday morning. If you live in an area that normally sees an early frost (at least 15-25 miles away from the downtowns) you may want to cover up any tender plants before you hit the sack Saturday night - it's going to be a close call.

Sunday should be brilliant, fewer scrappy cumulus clouds, more sun, a southerly breeze coaxing the mercuy above 60, the nicer day of the weekend. And right now all the computer models keep us dry and increasingly mild all of next week, a run of 60s, even a shot at 70 by the middle of next week. Not a bad way to kick off the cool, blustery, changeable month of October. CPC is still predicting a warmer-than-average October, and studying the maps I tend to believe them.

September was roughly 1 degree cooler than average in the Twin Cities, with nearly TWICE as much rain as average (5.53") vs. a normal amount of 2.62". We have some catching up (and drying out) to do over the next few weeks.

 

Vast Potential In the Discomfort of Howling Winds. Any well-traveled tourist or (professional) golfer will attest to the fact that the winds over Scotland HOWL much of the year, in fact there is thought to be enough renewable wind power potential lurking offshore to meet more than 6 TIMES Britain's current demand for electricity, according to this New York Times article. Those same fowl winds that can make the U.K.'s weather so dreadful much of the year could help to power and energy windfall - and much of northern Europe is now waking up to the opportunity.

Harvest Time. This satellite comparison shows the rapid maturation and ripening of the crops over Iowa and southern Minnesota in just the last month, the landscape going from a lush green to a dull brown in roughly 30 days. More from the Iowa State University Department of Agronomy here.

Before The Flood. High-res "MODIS" 250 meter resolution satellite imagery of Wisconsin on September 13, before the flood.

After The Flood. An image taken on September 29 shows the Wisconsin River out of it's banks - the 2 cities highlighted in blue (Arcadia and Portage) were largely evacuated at the height of the floods late last week. Data courtesy of the University of Wisconsin, more information here.

A Wild Sky - Over LA? Towering thunderheads over Los Angeles, and a spectacular rainbow hinting at better weather to come. Is this Kansas or beautiful downtown Burbank? Los Angeles has been hammered with strange weather in recent days, Monday's all-time record high of 113 F. giving way to midweek thunderstorms. An unlikely sky over LA on YouTube here.

Conservation Minnesota's Environmental Election Scorecard. Which candidates for office (from all parties) are truly looking out for Minnesota's environment? Quoting their web site: "The Conservation Minnesota Voter Fund endorses and works to elect candidates who are true conservation leaders.  Our goal is to elect leaders of all parties who understand the importance of natural resources to our health, our economy, and our lives." You might want to check it out before heading off to vote in a few weeks.

Climate Change And The Limits Of Skepticism. From an editorial in the Daily Princetonian: "Science is inherently uncertain. When scientists test a hypothesis, they can reject the hypothesis or support it, but they can never prove it. There is always the possibility that future research will qualify or even nullify previous work. But if I were to tell you that gravity is just a theory, you would laugh at me. The theory of gravity may have its limitations, but the understanding we gain from not rejecting its implications is vastly beneficial. The uncertainty of science is no reason to stand paralyzed in inaction." But a debate last week at Princeton between Fred Singer (one of the world's most prolific climate change deniers and a couple of bonafied climate scientists set off a debate about the "debate."

* 5 Steps To Help Keep Science Straight On Global Warming. This is one of the better explanations of the state of the science, what we know, what we suspect, where there is remaining uncertainty.

Top UK Science Agency Releases Climate Change Guide. The UK's National Academy of Science, the Royal Academy, has just released a new guide focusing on the science of climate change - where confidence in the scientific community is high, and where "substantial uncertainty" remains. The story is here - the actual pdf document "Climate Change - A Summary Of The Science" is here.

New Report Says U.S. Must Adapt To Climate Change Now. A National Climate Adaption Summit was held in Washington D.C. earlier this year, a pragmatic look at how we can adapt to a rapidly changing climate over North America (recognizing that a certain amount of change is already "baked" into our future). Some of the key points:

• The Summit report states that the United States must adapt to a changing climate now and prepare for increasing impacts on urban infrastructure, food, water, human health, and ecosystems in the coming decades.

• It urges local, regional, and federal decision makers to develop and coordinate climate change adaptation measures across these scales of government and with the private sector.

• Measures that increase resilience to climate change can include changes in technology, management practices, or institutions.

• The report also states that proactive adaptation planning can help minimize negative impacts of climate change on our Nation's communities, businesses, ecosystems, and citizens.

• The Federal Government must help to set priorities and share information about relevant programs and best practices.

The entire article is here.

Sunny Streak (first frost of autumn by Sunday morning?)

"Chill Out Paul!" O.K. Guilty as charged. Yesterday I whined about the summer fading away - I complained about being in mourning about the passing of the Summer of 2010. I got this response from David Gee (pictured on the water).

"C'mon man, you're jumping the gun. There is another good month of water skiing/wakeboarding ahead of us, depending of course on what those crazy weather guys have in store. I don't have a dry suit, but I'm good to a water temp of about 52 - 54 degrees with a 3mm wetsuit. I attached a pic of my boat and one of me making some turns on Tanager around sunset a couple of weeks ago. The water temps have been holding seady at right around 64 degrees, whic is where Mtka is today...For some reason in early September the water temps dropped fairly quickly from the summer 70s down to that current mark. If that trend had continued at that early September pace my fall season would have been cut shorter than I like. Despite all the rain and fresh surface water though, the local lake temps have been holding steady for several weeks now. That's good news. The water can go 10 degrees lower before our boat gets winterized!"

Wow. I start to complain when the water temperature falls below 75 F. I'm impressed. Now that's a die-hard ski buff. Yep, at this rate David and other hearty Minnesotans will be water-skiing into mid October. A cool front is scheduled for Friday and Saturday (it will feel more like mid/late October out there), but we warm up again next week, a string of 60s, maybe a few more 70s. Nothing resembling a "cold front" is in sight through the third week of October.

Northern Lights Hit 100-Year Low Point. For some reason the Northern Lights, the "Aurora Borealis", has become exceedingly rare in the last 5 years or so, coinciding with a period of unusually quiet, storm-free "weather" on the sun, far fewer solar flares or prominences capable of energizing the Earth's ionosphere and sparking a free show. The official minimum was 2008, but there has been very little activity since then, according to researchers. More from Helsinki here.

Standing Water. As many as 34 counties may be declared disaster areas - eligible for federal aid. The Highway 41 and 101 bridges over the Minnesota River are closed indefinitely, a number of roads around St. Paul have been closed under a local state of emergency - Harriet Island submerged, a crest on the Mississippi in St. Paul expected by Sunday.

Fall Flooding : Fishy and Bizarre Mark Flood Aftermath. Star Tribune reporters Bill McAuliffe and Chris Havens update the flood situation across the metro area and hard-hit counties in southern Minnesota, still recovering from last week's 8-11" rainfall. "To get this amount of rainfall this time of year is extraordinary," says Scott Dummer, a hydrologist (river forecaster) at the National Weather Service. There was so much water in the streets of Northfield that 20 pound carp were seen flopping on the sidewalks! More stories from the flood here.

Flood Warning Update. According to NWS river forecasters the flood conditions on the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers should be similar to the levels reached earlier this spring, "perhaps a little higher towards Hastings." For the latest on the flood warnings from the National Weather Service click here.

Departure From Normal - Last 2 Weeks. Some counties in southern Minnesota have seen 4 to 6 times more rain than normal during the last 14 days. See for yourself here.

Cooling Off - Warming Up Next Week. The models are all in agreement - a series of cooler fronts will puff increasingly chilly air southward out of Canada, Saturday will feel more like late October with highs stuck in the 50s and a brisk northwest wind - bottoming out Sunday morning in the mid 30s in the metro. Some of the colder, outlying suburbs will almost certainly experience the first frost of the season as a bubble of high pressure drifts overhead and winds ease up. From Lakeville to Medina to Ham Lake and Stillwater, the normally colder 'burbs may wake up to a frosting of white Sunday morning - if you have some plants you want to keep around for awhile consider covering them up or bringing them indoors before you turn in Saturday night.

Sunday Frost? Here are the NWS predicted wake-up temperatures for Sunday morning, 32 at St. Cloud, a frosty 31 at Eau Claire, 34 in the Twin Cities, where the "urban heat island" (asphalt/concrete retaining and slowly releasing the sun's heat energy) will keep the close-in suburbs (within the 494-694 loop) mostly frost-free.


Definition of "Perfect"? Could the weather have been any better yesterday? Don't think so. How are you supposed to "work" or "study" when the sky floating overhead is so blue, lukewarm and....memorable? I have a hunch job productivity and test scores suffered on Wednesday. Highs ranged from 71 at Alexandria to 74 in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 76 at Redwood Falls.


* On September 29, 1907 a trace of snow flurries dusted up a few lawns in the Twin Cities.

* Chance of a few sprinkles Friday as a colder front arrives - next chance of significant rain? The following Sunday, October 10.

* First frost of the season possible in the outlying suburbs Sunday morning.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

Today: Bright sun, breezy, a bit cooler than yesterday. Winds: NW 10-15. high: 67

Thursday night: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 47

Friday: Unsettled with mostly cloudy skies, a passing sprinkle, gusty (raw) wind. High:  62 (holding int he 50s most of the day).

Saturday: Chilliest day in sight. Partly sunny and brisk - feels more like late October. High: 57

Sunday: Blue sky, light breeze - a bit milder. High:  61

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, warming up. High: 65

Tuesday: Lot's of sun - beautiful weather statewide. High: 69

Wednesday: Sun fades behind increasing clouds - unseasonably mild. High: near 70

If we could just stuff days like yesterday into a bottle for safekeeping - open it up in a few months to savor (when we'll need it even more). I don't even want to think about wind chill, glare ice and "plowable snows." The sleds out in the shed (Polaris) help me rationalize snow, but it's tougher coming to grips with the intermittent arctic blasts. The only saving grace (which I've told friends and relatives ad nauseum) - our coldest days tend to be sunny. That blue sky does make a HUGE difference much of the winter, compared to cities like Chicago, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, where lake effect keeps it grayer with much higher humidity levels. When you're living in a town that has more moisture in the air the cold CUTS THROUGH YOU, to the point where 20-30 F. is painful. The coldest I've ever been (in my life) is NOT Minnesota, but Chicago, walking down Michigan Avenue, a raw 40 mph wind slapping me in the face, a temperature of 20 (above zero) but a humidity close to 100% made it feel like I was roaming around Antarctica. Unspeakable cold. All that moisture leaves your clothing damp, which conducts the cold far more efficiently - you FEEL the windchill in a way that makes Minnesota seem almost tame by comparison. Something to be said for living upwind of the Great Lakes. It's drier here - sunnier too. For most of us the worst days aren't the sunny (bitter) days, but rather the gray, humid, 30-degree days - the lack of sun seems to be a bigger factor than a lack of degrees most of the winter.

Sorry for going off on a meteorological tangent - just bracing myself (mentally) for what's to come. But the good news: we have plenty of lukewarm days left, more 60s, probably a few more 70s, I wouldn't be shocked to see another 80-degree high in October. I don't see anything that resembles a true COLD FRONT, but you'll probably need to break out the jackets and sweatshirts again by late Friday and Saturday as Canada fires off a warning shot. The sun will be out today, highs about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. A reinforcing cool front surges into town Friday with more clouds, a stiff breeze and a few windblown sprinkles. You'll need a jacket or sweatshirt for Friday evening football games, temperatures falling through the 50s.

Saturday still looks like the coolest day in sight, highs in the 50s, a mix of clouds and sunshine - it will feel more like late October. Frost? A distinct possibility in the outlying suburbs by Sunday morning. The "urban heat island", heat being re-radiated from asphalt and concrete, will keep the immediate metro area a few degrees warmer Saturday night, but 20-40 miles away from the downtowns it will be a different story. The first week of October is pretty typical for a first-frost, at least in the suburbs. The growing season in downtown St. Paul and Minneapolis is 2 weeks longer than the 'burbs - the first 32 in South Minneapolis routinely comes at least a week later than it does in Delano, Andover, Lino Lakes and Lakeville. There's some hot trivia you can use at your next party (if you want to be standing alone, talking to  yourself).

Sunday should be a notch nicer, light southerly winds, afternoon highs topping 60, bright sun (fewer scrappy cumulus clouds) - a fine fall day. Temperatures continue to mellow thorugh next week, and right now it looks dry - the chance of showers next Wednesday has diminished - any significant fronts and storms detouring well south (or north) of Minnesota until further notice. This dry spell is coming at a VERY good time for farmers, still trying to get into their fields after last week's almost biblical deluge. Harvest has been delayed, no question - but it seems like the atmosphere will compensate for last week's flooding by treating us to 2, possibly 3 weeks in a row of dry weather. That's fairly unusual for October.

Sunshine will be the rule through most of next week - little or no rain, only a slight chance of frost Sunday morning, no high winds, severe weather or anything that remotely resembles a "storm" until the second week of October, at the earliest. This is as quiet as it ever gets this time of year. I'm going to kick back and enjoy this unusual (and welcome) lack of "weather".

Lumbering Back From Tornadoes. The New York City area hasn't seen this magnitude of storm damage since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. Two tornadoes and a "macroburst" (a powerful T-storm downdraft reaching the ground and producing severe straight-line winds) damaged hundreds of homes - the clean-up will take weeks, possibly months. The number of trees knocked over by the storm is almost incomprehensible. During a typical year the Parks Department removes about 6,000 tons of tree debris. But in a single week after the tornadoes swept through 1,500 tons of trees were removed in a single week! More on the aftermath in Queens here.

Pakistani Ambassador's Flood Video. It's hard for us to grasp the enormity of the disaster facing Pakistan from weeks of downpours - the monsoon has gone crazy this year, inundating 25% of the nation, displacing millions of families, creating economic and political instability that has a lot of top officials in Washington D.C. very nervous. Click here to see an eye-opening video that documents the travails of Pakistan, and why it will take years for the country to recover from this year's historic flooding.

Ancient Italian Town Has Wind At Its Back. A town with so much potential wind power that it can not only provide its own energy needs, but sell excess electricity to nearby towns? It's happening in Italy, and Wednesday's New York Times had a lengthy article about the economics of wind power.

Professor Says Research Clear On Climate Change. Climate change science is not as unsettled as skeptics imply and doubts about global warming stem more from a fear of regulation than from scientific uncertainty, author and scientist Naomi Oreskes told a Wyoming audience last week. There is still in inherent, underlying fear that tackling climate change will somehow stifle or inhibit civil liberties - some people still equate environmentalism with socialism and Big Government, when in reality some of the best, long-term solutions will come from thousands of new companies trying to create a new, energy-efficient economy from the ground up. More on her presentation here.

Global Ice Viewer. NASA has created an interactive web site that tracks the rate of ice loss from Greenland and the Arctic to Antarctica. Worth a look.

Big Oil Spends Half A Billion Dollars To Oppose Climate Legislation. Half a BILLION dollars spent on lobbying to defeat clean energy and climate change initiatives - in one year? It's a staggering number, but a recent study, going by the title "Dirty Money", confirms this number. The top spenders (not surprisingly) are: ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) (1), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) (2), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) (3), BP (NYSE: BP) (5), Koch Industries (6), and Shell (NYSE: RDS-A).

Random Photo Of The Day. There is no compelling meteorological reason to be including this photo in today's weather blog. Consider this a cautionary tale - you probably don't want to stand beside an interstate to get that perfect family photo, no matter how perfect the backdrop. Hey, the guy's a Cubs fan - what can possibly go wrong?

Lukewarm Clipper (and a flurry of jackets by the weekend)

Flooding From Space. If you look VERY carefully you can see the Minnesota River spilling out of its banks in Tuesday's "MODIS" satellite image from NASA's Terra low-orbiting spacecraft. The very latest image can be found here.

St. Paul Prediction. The Mississippi River is forecast to crest in St. Paul over the weekend, 4 1/2 feet above flood stage. Harriet Island will almost certainly be inundated as water from the Minnesota River surges downstream. People living in vulnerable neighborhoods along the Minnesota and the Mississippi Rivers should stay alert for the latest flood forecasts and local announcements. The latest forecast can be found here.

Nervous Floridians. An area of disturbed weather swirling south of Cuba is close to tropical storm strength, there is a better than 50/50 chance this tropical wave will mature into "Nicole", and then track north, across Cuba today, possibly threatening the southern and eastern counties of Florida with torrential rain and 40-60 mph. winds by Thursday. More from NHC here. An ensemble of multiple models can be found here. The storm is forecast to soak Florida today, and then accelerate right up the east coast, producing torrential rains from Savannah to Washington D.C. and New York.

Instant Flood. Click here to see an amazing time-lapse of the Chaska Athletic Field getting inundated on Sunday - this lapse goes from 6:00 am to 7:30 pm, a little over a 12 hour period. Amazing.

Northfield Flooding. The soccer fields in Northfield have also been inundated by last week's 6-10" rainfall. The YouTube video clip is here.

How Hot Did It REALLY Get In Los Angeles Monday? You probably heard by now - the official NWS thermometer broke shortly after the mercury soared to 113 F, setting a new all-time record for L.A. (coming in Autumn - very odd). More on the quirky weather gripping southern California from the L.A. Times here.

SoCal Heatwave Leaves Thousands Without Power. The record-smashing 113 F high in L.A. on Monday left tens of thousands of residents without power - a bad time to be without air conditioning, the "marine layer" (cool, moist Pacific air sweeping in from the west) nowhere to be found. More on the record-breaking heat (and malfunctioning thermometer) here from USA Today.

Tuesday Stats. Yesterday was the definition of "partly sunny", or possibly another phrase we use way too much: "a mix of clouds and sun". It started out sunny, clouds rolled in (from the north and east, a touch of lake effect sweeping off Lake Superior) and then the sun reappeared during the afternoon as skies cleared from west to east. A typical fall day in Minnesota, rain-free, highs ranging from 63 at St. Cloud to 66 in the Twin Cities, a respectable 72 at Redwood Falls.

* Slight chance of a shower north of St. Cloud and Mille Lacs this afternoon - today should be the mildest day in sight.

* Cooling trend into Saturday - dig out the light jackets & sweatshirts for the end of the week.

* Saturday: coolest day in sight, slight chance of frost late Saturday night over central and northern Minnesota.

* Sunday: a few degrees warmer - blue sky, a light south/southwest breeze at 10-15 mph.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

Today: Partly sunny, breezy and mild. A few PM showers possible, mainly over northern and central MN. Winds: SW/NW 10-20. High: 73

Wednesday night: Clearing and cool. Low: 53

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun, a few degrees cooler. High: 62

Friday: Clouds increase - slight chance of a PM shower or sprinkle. High: near 60

Saturday: Blue sky, coolest day in sight (light winds). High: 58

Sunday: Still sunny, a bit milder (probably the nicer day of the weekend). High: 61

Monday: Sunshine lingers - feeling even better out there. High: 67

Tuesday: Sunny start, clouds increase late. High: 68

Wednesday: Cloudy with a good chance of showers. High: 64

Yes, it finally feels like fall out there. No dew point-babble, no dueling Dopplers on TV, no "watches" or "warnings" to muddle through or swatting of the NOAA Weather Radio up in my study (which must have gone off 2 dozen times in the middle of the night during the summer months). Yesterday's raw north breeze pumped in low-level moisture all the way from the Lake Superior area, keeping a stale slab of stratocumulus clouds hovering overhead much of the morning and midday - skies finally cleared from west to east and we were able to salvage a fine Tuesday evening.

Today will be the warmest day in sight - a good chance of low to mid 70s by mid afternoon as winds increase from the south ahead of an Alberta Clipper, clouds increasing as the afternoon goes on. This clipper may spark a few showers over northern and even central Minnesota during the afternoon and evening hours - maybe a half hour of rain from St. Cloud on north. That's the only rain in sight for the next week or so - there's a slight chance of a shower late Friday as a reinforcing cool front dives south of the border -  the next chance of (widespread) showers will come next Tuesday night and Wednesday, but until then it's relatively smooth sailing in the weather department.

Mea culpa: the predicted weekend temperatures are definitely cooler than we were predicting a few days ago (when it looked like we might eek out a 70-degree high by Sunday). Each computer run has trended progressively cooler and cooler, we'll be lucky to see 50s (for highs) on Saturday under a mostly-blue sky, after a frosty start central and northern counties we should inch up to 60 or so Sunday afternoon. A southwest breeze kicks up early next week with highs mellowing into the 60s to near 70 by Tuesday and Wednesday, not bad at all for the first week of October.

NOAA Satellites Crucial in Accurate Hurricane Forecasting. NOAA has 5 "GOES" satellites, in permanent orbit 22,300 miles above the equator, and 2 additional low-orbiting "POES" satellites that fly over the poles at an altitude a little over 200 miles above the ground. This image shows a cold "wake" of water left behind by Hurricane Igor. Hurricanes tap warm water and convert tropical ocean water into wind and rain - dredging up cooler water in their wake. The article from NOAA is here.

Hundreds Feared Dead in Mexican Landslide. The state of Oaxaca, Mexico has been inundated by heavy rains in recent days, as many as 100-300 homes were buried - as many as 500 to 1,000 people may have been in those homes, still missing. As much as 28" of rain may have fallen in a single week. USA Today has more on the historic flooding and resulting mudslides here.

Wild Time Lapse. There are some amazing videos on YouTube - including this wild example shot last weekend in Vancouver - 3 different layers of clouds at various altitudes - quite a sight.

Time To Unplug The Doppler

Magnificent Sight. This is the scene up the Grand Portage area - a smorgasbord of colors as fall color peaks along Lake Superior's North Shore. The Minnesota DNR has an album you can explore, showing highlights of Minnesota's spectacular fall foliage. Yes, this would truly be a good time to Explore Minnesota!

Burst of Color. Thanks to Tricia Frostad, who lives in Chanhassen, for reminding us how spectacular northern Minnesota can be in late September. This photo was taken Sunday near Pelican Lake, close to Orr, Minnesota.

September Rainfall in the Twin Cities:

Normal: 2.40"

Actual: 5.51" (it has rained on 14 of the last 28 days in the Twin Cities).

Nearing Peak Color. According to the MN DNR fall color is peaking up north in the coming days - next weekend will probably be the best weekend of Autumn to make a road trip, colors peaking in the immediate Twin Cities sometime between October 3 and October, more like mid October south and east, down Highway 61 along the Mississippi. More details from the DNR here.

One Soggy Week. I counted at least 68 towns in Minnesota that have set 24-hour rainfall records in the last week, including Winnebego, MN, where 6.3" fell last Thursday. This map shows one week's worth of records (highs, lows, rainfall amounts). For an interactive map from Ham Weather that shows all the details click here.

Cresting Rivers. The hydrologists, the river forecasters at the local National Weather Service office in Chanhassen, are keeping a very close eye on Minnesota's streams and rivers. The greatest concern is the Cottonwood River in New Ulm, and along the Minnesota River from St. Peter to Henderson and Jordan - as well as a few locations along the Mississippi River. Click here to see the latest (interactive) forecasts.

Flood Update. Dozens of communites from central Wisconsin to southern Minnesota were hit especially hard by last week's extreme rainfall amounts. Dikes gave way on the Wisconsin River in Portage, Wisconsin, just 40 miles north of Madison - scores of families had to evacuate their homes. AP has a good summary of the weather-related headaches and heartaches here.


Flash Floods. Monday was an odd day, torrential rains along the east coast of the USA, flooding rains - even a few isolated tornadoes racing northward across Virginia and Maryland - in late September?

Holding Their Breath. People living alongside the Minnesota River have every reason to be nervous, after last week's 6-10" rains over southern Minnesota. That muddy water is now coursing down the MN River - which is expected to crest about a foot and a half below record flood stage between Wednesday and Thursday evening.

Plagues of Locust. Australia is grappling with the worst infestation of locust in 75 years, recent weather conditions ideal for the almost exponential spread of these pests (drought, followed by recent rains and bright sunshine). A one kilometer wide swarm of locust can chomp through 10 TONS of crops, a third of their combined body weight, in a single day! More on the growing locust-related headaches down under here.

Record Heat in L.A. Monday the official high in Los Angeles was a hair-curling, eye-watering 113 F, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the City of Angels. The previous record: 112 F on June 26, 1990. What's especially odd about this is the fact that the all-time record came in autumn, after an unusually cool, gray summer in Los Angeles. More on L.A.'s freakish heat "storm" here.


Monday Memories. In spite of a weak cool frontal passage the atmosphere floating overhead yesterday was "well-mixed", allowing air from 6,000 to 8,000 feet above the ground to reach the ground, boosting the mercury to 74 in St. Cloud, 75 in the Twin Cities and a balmy 78 at Redwood Falls, 8-10 degrees warmer than average for September 27.


Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Today: Bright sun, breezy and a bit cooler. Winds: N 8-13. High: 64

Tuesday night: Clear and cool. Low: 51

Wednesday: Partly sunny and milder - slight chance of a shower over northern and central MN. High: 71

Thursday: Breezy and cooler again with plenty of sunshine. High: 67

Friday: Blue sky - still extraordinary. High: 65

Saturday: High pressure overhead - sunny with light winds. High: 62

Sunday: Sunny and milder - another perfect fall day. High: near 70

Monday: More of the same - lot's of sunshine, pleasantly mild. High: 73

I am at a rare (and welcome) loss for words. Monday was spectacular, in spite of some patchy clouds from a weak frontal passage (which actually kicked up a few T-storms over the MN Arrowhead). A transfusion of slightly cooler, drier air will surge into Minnesota today on northerly breezes, highs about 5-7 degrees cooler than yesterday, but I expect few complaints.

That will be the weather story looking out through most of next week, possibly through the second week of October - unusually dry, quiet and lukewarm. A "split flow" in the jet stream will cause storms to detour well south (and north) of Minnesota, keeping us in a miraculously quiet, storm-free oasis of high pressure. Every now and then a gently-used frontal boundary will come limping through town, but moisture will be very limited over the next 2 weeks, and I still don't see any significant rain looking out through October 14, give or take.

This is coming at a very good time for weather-weary farmers, many still staring out their windows at standing water in their fields. They desparately need a spell of unusually dry weather, and right on cue: here it is. If you need an extended stretch of sunshiny days for construction, yard-work, closing up the cabin (too early), taking out the dock, winterizing your yard (too early) or getting out into your waterlogged fields, you're in luck!

A weak clipper-like system may spark a stray shower or two over the northern third of Minnesota tomorrow - this wind shift line will probably come through dry in the Twin Cities, only a very slight chance of a 20 minute shower or T-shower from St. Cloud to Brainerd and Duluth. We warm up into the low 70s tomorrow, cool down in the low/mid 60s Thursday and Friday - a little frost up north Saturday morning may give way to 70+ F. again by Sunday and Monday of next week. More like San Diego or Palm Springs than a classic early October in MInnesota.

Not complaining one bit - not sure if this is payback for an unusually wet and stormy September (and a wild summer for that matter) or a prequel to a wild and stormy late Autumn; whatever the meteorological trigger I'm giving thanks for 2 of the nicest weeks you'll ever find at this latitude in late September and the first HALF of October.

Time to unplug the Doppler. That doesn't happen very often.


Nicole? Check out the swirl of low pressure west of Florida by Sunday evening. NHC forecasters in Miami are keeping an eye on an area of disturbed, thundery weather south of Cuba. it's forecast to drift north, and possibly strengthen over warm tropical waters later this week. It's still too early to know if there is a real tropical storm/hurricane risk in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida. So far this year the USA has been extraordinarily lucky - 13 named storms and no direct hits.

Unusually Powerful Jet Stream. The GOES-11 weather satellite (which has sensors sensitive enough to derive wind speed/direction) showed winds as high as 216 knots (248 mph!) yesterday over the Pacific. All this potential energy may spin up a series of unusually powerful, almost November-like storms in the weeks ahead - but any major storms are forecast to detour well south of Minnesota through mid October. More from the University of Wisconsin here.

Tropical Storm Matthew Strengthens Off The Coast Of Nicaragua. The 13th named storm of the season, Matthew, is swirling off the coast of Nicaragua - it may strengthen into a minimal hurricane as early as today. Much of Central America has been inundated by unusually heavy rains during the summer season - Nicaragua has already lowered estimates of its coffee crop - you may be digging a little deeper into your pocket at the friendly local Caribou Coffee hangout within a few weeks. Uh oh.


Fire Threat. In all at least 22 regions of Russia endured record wildfires during the intensely hot and dry summer of 2010. NASA scientists can track these fires in realtime. Surprisingly a small number of these brushfires are sparked by natural causes, like cloud to ground lightning strikes. An estimated 90% of these "biomass burnings" (burning of living or dead plant materials) are man-made. A warmer world will increase evaporation (and the frequency/intensity of extreme rainfall amounts) but this heightened evaporation will dry out much of the planet, creating ripe conditions for wildfires to develop and spread. More from NASA on a growing fire threat here.

NOAA, Coast Guard Hunt for Alaskan Methane, Carbon Dioxide Sources. NOAA is teaming up with the Coast Guard to fly specially-equipped aircraft above the skies of Alaska, sniffing out greenhouse gases. Billions of tons of carbon are buried in the frozen permafrost of the Arctic region - which is now warming rapidly, releasing methane, 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. Which greenhouse gas releases are natural vs man-made? The NOAA flights hope to shed more light on what's happening WAY up north. More on the experiments now underway here.