Monday, September 26, 2016

Wind-whipped PM showers possible later Tuesday; Sunny and better by Thursday

Friendly Storm From the Air
What an unreal picture from @CuePilot who is an airplane pilot and photographer based in Ecuador! He recently snapped this picture on his way home! WOW!
Windy Monday
Here's the visible satellite loop from Monday with wind gusts as well. First, note that widespread cloud cover and scattered rain showers enveloped much of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin for much of the day. Also note how many and how widespread the double digit wind gusts were yesterday.
 

Here's a list of all the tropical storm force wind gusts that were recorded on Monday!
 

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What's Happening At Hazeltine?
After several rounds of heavy rain over the past couple/few weeks, it appears that the weather will calm down just in time for one of the biggest golf events in the world! The big stage goes to Hazeltine National Golf Club located in Chaska, MN. It has been a pleasure watching and following Chris Tritabaugh @CT_turf  and his other crew members on twitter as he as his amazing crew have prepared for the Ryder Cup event this week. This is a picture that Chris posted on Monday as the sun was popping out after a very wet week last week.
Here's the crew taking care of the heavy rain last week. Note that Minneapolis airport alone has seen 5.43" of rain so far this month, which is 2.83" above average!
A Very Wet Stretch of Weather Leading up to Ryder Cup in Chaska
Take a look at this nugget from Micah Woods @asianturfgrass who found that from August 16th to September 20th 2016, 11 days had more than 0.25" of rain at Chaska, MN. According to his findings, that is the most of any year on record since 1925!

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A Wet September
Here's a snippet from Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk from Friday, September 23rd, which helps describe how much rainfall we've seen this month and so far this year in some places.
"This wet September continues a trend toward above normal precipitation. Some climate stations in Minnesota have already received over 40 inches of precipitation for the year. Further at least ten climate stations are on a pace to set a new record wet year, including St James with 40.59 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and Waseca with 48.68 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and over three months to go in 2016! It is also likely that the all-time state record wettest single year, 53.52 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 1991 will be broken before the end of this year."
(Image below shows estimated rainfall since September 1st)
River Flooding Continues
Thanks to heavy rainfall last week, river flooding is still a big problem. Note that flood warnings continue along the Minnesota River as the river is expected to crest through the week ahead.

 
Wettest Meteorological Summer Record so Far (For Some)
According to NOAA, some locations across the central part of the country saw its wettest June through August (Meteorological Summer) on record. Note that some of these locations include parts of Minnesota, western Wisconsin and northeast Iowa.

 

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 Signs of Fall Closer to Home
Slowly, but surely signs of fall are beginning to pop up. A few more trees and bushes are beginning to turn color and over the few weeks, we will be inundated with brilliant colors everywhere!

Fall Color Update
The latest update from the MN DNR shows that we are well on our way in the fall color department with some 50% to 75% color being reported across parts of Central and Northwestern Minnesota. Note that only 10% to 25% color can be found across the Twin Cities; the average peak there is generally late September to mid October.

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Wind-whipped PM showers possible later Tuesday; Sunny and better by Thursday
I feel a little disheveled after yesterday's tropical storm force wind gusts blew into town. Thank goodness we weren't deeper into the fall color season or we'd have leaves blowing all over the place. That reminds me, where did I put my rake? I am going to need it soon.
A large area of low pressure centered over Ontario is responsible for this windy nonsense. While wind gusts won't be quite as strong as they were Monday, we'll still have a nagging breeze to combat as you meander about outdoors. The low clouds surrounding the storm system will also make an appearance again Tuesday with passing showers that will likely be present during the afternoon hours.
Winds taper a bit and the sun slowly peeks out on Wednesday, but temperatures will still require an extra layer as you head out the door.
I am happy to report that the extended forecast suggests an extended period of sunny, dry and mild weather Thursday through Sunday; good news for the Ryder Cup. Props to Hazeltine for handling all the rain last week, the course looks amazing!
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Extended Weather Outlook
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and a little breezy. Winds: 10-15. Low: 47
TUESDAY: Low clouds return with a few wind-whipped showers. Winds: WNW 10-20. High: 60.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Showers end early. Winds: NNW 10. Low: 47
WEDNESDAY: More sun and not as windy. Winds: N 5-15. High: 62
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Nice, quiet day. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 48. High: 68.
FRIDAY: Bright sun, a touch warmer. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 49. High: 70.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, a few high clouds. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.
SUNDAY: Filtered sun, still looks dry. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 51. High: 70.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Stray storms late. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 71
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This Day in Weather History
September 27th
1942: Minneapolis has a high temperature of only 40 degrees.
1898: A heat wave produces highs of 91 degrees at Beardsley and 90 at Moorhead.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 27th
Average High: 67F (Record: 88F set in 1987)
Average Low: 47F (Record: 29F set in 1991)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 27th
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 7:00pm
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3mins & 6sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~3hours and 44mins
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Moon Phase for September 26th
2.7 Days Before New Moon
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Weather Outlook Tuesday
Tuesday will be another chilly day with highs across much of the state struggling to get to 60F. With gusty winds continuing, it'll feel even cooler than the actual high; very reminiscent of October!
Weather Outlook Tuesday
Winds on Tuesday will once again be quite breezy. Not as bad as Monday was, but it'll still be breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph.
Weather Outlook Tuesday
The large area of low pressure responsible for the gusty winds across the region on Monday will begin sagging south into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Wrap around clouds and showers will be found across eastern Minnesota and most of Wisconsin.

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from Monday to Wednesday shows wrap around showers across northern Minnesota drifting south through the region PM Tuesday through early Wednesday. Note that most locations won't see much in terms of accumulation.

Rainfall Potential
Additional rainfall looks heaviest across the northeastern part of the state and into northern Wisconsin. Some locations may see up to 0.5" or more, while locations closer to the Twin Cities will see much lighter amounts.
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Extended Weather Outlook
The extended temperature outlook over the next 10 days suggests temperatures dropping back down to below average levels through the middle part of next week in the wake of the cold front that moved through PM Saturday/AM Sunday. Slowly, temperatures climb to near average levels by the end of the week and into the first part of October!
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temperatures look to sneak back into the Upper Midwest as we get into early October. However, temperatures over the next couple of days look a littler cooler and could require some longer sleeves.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Here's the national temperature outlook from October 1st - 5th, which shows warmer than average conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with cooler than average temperatures returning to places along the West Coast.
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National Weather Outlook
A large area of low pressure will slowly slide through the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday with colder temperatures, low clouds and spotty showers. The storm seems to almost stall in the Ohio Valley, which will prolong heavier rainfall potential across the East Coast.

Precipitation Outlook
After a notably wet week across the Central U.S. last week, there appears to be an extended period of dry weather. Heavier rainfall looks to move into parts of the Northeast where they could use the rain. Some spots there could see 2" to 4" of rain or more through the end of the week.
Precipitation Needed to end Drought in the Northeast

The good news is that the rain will be much needed in the Northeast as some locations need nearly 5" to 9" or more to end the drought. 


Northeast Drought Monitor

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 69% of the region is considered to be abnormally dry, while 16% of the region is in a severe drought and 5% is in an extreme drought, including Boston, MA

 
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Tracking the Tropics
The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on this particular wave of energy as it drifts closer to the Caribbean. As of PM Monday, it has a high probability of tropical formation within the next 5 day.

 
Watching the Tropics
Some of the latest model guidance suggests that this system will gain tropical storm strength within the next couple of days, while some also suggests that this storm could become a hurricane! Stay tuned...

 
Watching the Tropics
Here's a host of different models and solutions, which show a range in its path from just north of South America to east of the East Coast.

 
Atlantic 5 Day Outlook
According to NOAA's NHC, the 5 day outlook suggests a HIGH chance of tropical formation with a wave of energy drifting closer to the Caribbean. With the continued northwest track, this storm is worth watching... Stay tuned.


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"Earth Could Reach Critical Climate Threshold in a Decade, Scientists Warn"

"Speaking at a University of Oxford conference this week, led by leading UK climate researcher Richard Betts, scientists said global greenhouse gas emissions are not likely to slow down quickly enough to avoid passing the 1.5°C target. The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was agreed to in the landmark Paris agreementnegotiated by 195 nations last year. But the planet is continuing to experience unprecedented heat month after month, setting 2016 on track to be the hottest year ever recorded. In fact, the scientists said, Earth is currently on a trajectory to hit at least 2.7°C in global temperature rise. Pete Smith, a plant and soil scientist at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland, said mass lifestyle change must be undertaken to combat rising temperatures, such as developing more sustainable diets, reducing food waste and red meat intake, and importing fewer greenhouse gas-heavy vegetables. "There are lots of behavioral changes required, not just by the government ... but by us," he said. He also warned that controversial geoengineering techniques such as sunlight blocking could become the norm in some countries. The warning came the same day that Oil Change International released a report that found we have 17 years left to get off fossil fuels, or else face unprecedented and irreversible climate catastrophe."

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Chilly winds today. Dry and warm for Ryder Cup

Colder Temps in the Northeast
Take a look at the tweet that the NWS out of Washington DC/Baltimore sent out on Sunday morning. Due to colder temperatures moving into the region, the tempeature dipped below 60F for the first time in 107 days. That makes it the 2nd longest stretch with temperatures at 60F or warmer in recorded history.


Frost/Freeze Concerns in the Northeast

Colder temperatures in the region have prompted frost and freeze concerns across much of the area in the Northeast and temperatures are expected to dip into the mid/upper 20s and lower 30s.


Ruby Mountains Snow

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Elko, NV for the pictures below, where the Ruby Moutains recently saw snow from the same storm system that is moving through the middle part of the country now!



Sunday Showers
Scattered showers popped up in the wake of our cold front on Sunday. Note the speckled nature of the clouds, which shows the instability present in Sunday's atmosphere. Temperatures aloft were quite chilly, so any amount of sunshine and daytime heating helped to produce the random showers.
 
 
Signs of Fall Closer to Home
Slowly, but surely signs of fall are beginning to pop up. A few more trees and bushes are beginning to turn color and over the few weeks, we will be inundated with brilliant colors everywhere!

Fall Color Update
The latest update from the MN DNR shows that we are well on our way in the fall color department with some 50% to 75% color being reported across parts of Central and Northwestern Minnesota. Note that only 10% to 25% color can be found across the Twin Cities; the average peak there is generally late September to mid October.

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More on the Record Setting September Rain
September continues the very wet trend we've been seeing across the Upper Midwest over the last several months. Much of the significant tallies were aided by pockets of extreme rainfall earlier this week. Mark Seeley from MN State Climate Office recently wrote about the recent rains in Friday's WeatherTalk, his work can be found below:
"Thunderstorms, some severe, brought heavy rainfall again to portions of central and southern Minnesota over September 21-22 (Wed-Thu) this week. Many observers reported from 1 to 2 inches, and several places reported new record daily amounts up to 5 to 8 inches. Dew points spiked in the low 70s F at a number of locations just ahead of the storm indicating that there was a very high water vapor content. Preliminary data suggest that a new statewide record daily rainfall occurred on September 22nd (old record 4.84 inches at Cambridge in 1968), but the final say on the new record will come from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Many communities reported flash flooding, including washed out roads and culverts, and some flooded basements."

Some of the new record daily amounts of rainfall included:

7.64" at Waseca
5.15" at Wells
4.11" at Rochester
4.06" at Bricelyn
3.81" at Preston
3.74" at Spring Grove
3.70" at Zumbrota, Grand Meadow, and Spring Valley
3.09" at Winnebago
3.08" at Theilman
2.75" at La Crescent
2.15" at Stillwater
2.10" at Winona Dam
2.06" at Kimball

Many other communities with shorter climate records reported even greater amounts of rainfall, including 5.34" at Lanesboro, 5.11" at Eau Claire, WI; 4.65" at Champlin; 4.15" at Owatonna; 8.11" at Maple Grove; and 5.12" at Byron.

The added rainfall this week pushed the total for the month of September to near record or new record values for a number of climate stations in southern Minnesota, including:
13.69" at Mabel (Fillmore County)
13.89" at Spring Grove (Houston County)
10.37" at Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 10.56” at Rushford (Fillmore County)
11.40" at Hokah (Houston County)
13.03" at Caledonia (Houston County)
14.56" at Waseca (Waseca County)
"This wet September continues a trend toward above normal precipitation. Some climate stations in Minnesota have already received over 40 inches of precipitation for the year. Further at least ten climate stations are on a pace to set a new record wet year, including St James with 40.59 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and Waseca with 48.68 inches (2nd wettest year in history), and over three months to go in 2016! It is also likely that the all-time state record wettest single year, 53.52 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 1991 will be broken before the end of this year."
(Image below shows estimated rainfall since September 1st)
River Flooding Continues
Keep in mind that not all the rivers that are experiencing flooding are shown below, but those with river gauges that are currently registering flood stage are. Note that quite a few are in Major Flood stage across parts of northeast Iowa and across western Wisconsin.

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Soggy Baseball Weather This Year
It was another soggy day at Target Field on Friday, September 23rd. Interestingly, there have been nearly a dozen rain delays/postponements this season, which speaks to the number of soggy days we've had this summer. Al Kuehner, the official Target Field co-op weather observer, has measured a staggering 29.62" of rain so far at Target Field since the Twins' season started back in April! Here's how the months tallied up:
April: 3.96"
May: 1.92"
June: 4.75"
July: 5.18"
August: 8.63"
September (So far): 5.38"
 
Wettest Start to the Year on Record for Minneapolis
According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, through September 21st, Minneapolis has seen 30.81" of precipitation, which is the wettest such period on record! Through September 23rd, Minneapolis has seen nearly 31.50" of rain.


Wettest Meteorological Summer Record so Far (For Some)

According to NOAA, some locations across the central part of the country saw its wettest June through August (Meteorological Summer) on record. Note that some of these locations include parts of Minnesota, western Wisconsin and northeast Iowa.

 

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Chilly winds today. Dry and warm for Ryder Cup
Break out the long sleeves and slow cook something in the Crock-Pot. I always hate to see summer go, but I am reminded how much I like Fall once the temperatures dip and trees start turning color. We're also getting closer to the end of road construction season and that's a major plus!
The mercury struggles to get to 60 degrees across much of northern Minnesota today as low, gray clouds and scattered light showers rotate around a slow moving storm system. The storm loiters in the Great Lakes region through the early week time frame, which means we'll have to deal with a nagging, Octoberish breeze; one that will have you reaching for an extra layer before leaving the house in the morning.
As the stubborn storm drifts east, a ridge of high pressure builds in allowing sunshine and dry weather to persist for several days. Golfers and golf fans will be appreciative of the downpour free forecast as the Ryder Cup comes to town this week.
At this point, the weekend looks dry with temperatures hovering around 70 degrees. FORE!
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Extended Weather Outlook
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few showers. Winds: WNW 10-15. Low: 50.
MONDAY: Breezy. Feels like October. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 63
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and a little breezy. Winds: 10-15. Low: 47
TUESDAY: More sun, chilly breeze continues. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 63
WEDNESDAY: Bright sunshine and warmer. Not as windy. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 46. High: 66
THURSDAY: Dry start for the Ryder Cup. Sunny and warmer. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 50. High: 70.
FRIDAY: Filtered PM sun. Still dry. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.
SATURDAY: Dry. Not bad for the first day of October. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 71.
SUNDAY: Nice! Nothing rough for the Ryder Cup. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 49. High: 72.
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This Day in Weather History
September 26th
1980: Cold morning lows are recorded, with 20 degrees at Tower and 16 at Embarrass.
1942: 1.8 inches of snow falls in St. Cloud.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 26th
Average High: 67F (Record: 87F set in 1923)
Average Low: 48F (Record: 27F set in 1965)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 26th
Sunrise: 7:05am
Sunset: 7:02pm
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3mins & 6sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~3hours and 41mins
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Moon Phase for September 26th
3.7 Days Before New Moon
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Weather Outlook Monday
Monday looks like a chilly day across the region with highs struggling to get to 60 degrees across parts of the state. Dewpoints will be quite low, so it'll feel like a fall day!
Weather Outlook Monday
Winds on Monday will begin picking up out of a westerly direction, which will help to keep the colder temperatures in place. Note that winds will be fairly stout across western Minnesota and across the Dakotas.
Weather Outlook Monday
The cold front that brought steadier rain showers PM Saturday/AM Sunday will be found across the Great Lakes Region and Middle-Mississippi Valley on Monday. In the wake of the front, wrap around could and a few spotty showers will still be possible.

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from Sunday to Tuesday shows wrap around showers across northern Minnesota slowly fading on Monday and Tuesday. The rest of the week looks to slowly clear, turn dry and warm up!

Rainfall Potential
Any additional rainfall potential that we see looks to be fairly light across the Twin Cities metro through the early part of the week. The steadiest will be found across northeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin.
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Extended Weather Outlook
The extended temperature outlook over the next 10 days suggests temperatures dropping back down to below average levels through the middle part of next week in the wake of the cold front that moved through PM Saturday/AM Sunday. Slowly, temperatures climb to near average levels by the end of the week and into the first part of October!
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temperatures look to sneak back into the Upper Midwest as we get closer to the end of the month/early part of October. However, next week looks a littler cooler and could require some longer sleeves, especially Monday and Tuesday!
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Here's the national temperature outlook from September 30th to October 4th, which shows warmer than average conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with cooler than average temperatures returning to places along the West Coast.
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National Weather Outlook
After a notably wet week across the Central U.S. and especially across the Upper Midwest. The last round of steadier showers and storms will move east of the Mississippi River Valley by Sunday. This will allow for several days of drier weather to settle in, which is much needed since some locations saw nearly 2 to 3 months worth of rain this week alone. Scattered showers and storms will move east through early next week and also continue acros the Deep South, where Texas could continue to see heavy rainfall.

High Temperatures from Average Monday

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop to 5F to near 20F below average in the Central U.S., especially across the Southern Plains. Temperatures on Monday will feel very reminiscent of October!

Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast shows heavy rainfall tapering across the Upper Midwest with heavier rain taking over across the Southern Plains and into southwestern Texas where some 4" to 6"+ can't be ruled out through the end of next week. Some of this rain cloud lead to flooding.
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KARL
This was the view of the remnants of Karl from PM Sunday as it was quickly tracking northeast through the north-central Altantic. Karl regained tropical storm status after being downgraded to a depression earlier this week. The good news is that after making a close encounter with Bermuda PM Friday/AM Saturday, Karl will no longer be an issue.
Atlantic 5 Day Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, the 5 day outlook suggests a HIGH chance of tropical formation with a wave of energy just west of the African coast. Note that the trajectory takes it into the Caribbean, so this may be a storm to watch... Stay tuned.

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"WMO rules on longest distance and longest duration lightning flashes"
"Experts have established two new world records for the longest reported distance and the longest reported duration for a single lightning flash in, respectively, Oklahoma (United States of America) and southern France. The lightning flash over Oklahoma in 2007 covered a horizontal distance of 321 kilometers (199.5 miles). The lightning event over southern France in 2012 lasted continuously for 7.74 seconds."
See more from ScienceDaily.com HERE:
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Thanks for checking in don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX