Slight Severe Risk Later Today

* Slight severe storm risk later today over the southern half of Minnesota.

* Best chance of showers/T-storms: this evening, again Thursday night and Saturday.

* Sunday appears to be the nicer day of the weekend.

* Temperatures closer to average for the next week, mostly mid 70s to near 80 for highs.


Dust Storm. Check out this amazing photo from Quinghi Province, China - at the edge of the massive Gobi desert. Looks like something out of a big budget disaster movie - the details are here.


It's been a remarkable spring. Two years ago when I suffered my own mid-life career-crisis I had no idea I'd be part of a team that launched a competitor to the Weather Channel. Life leads you in strange and often unforeseen directions.

My wife of 27 years, Laurie, turned 50 yesterday; still has the same spark, the same beautiful eyes that attracted me to her 33 years ago. Can't ponder going through life without her. I was able to win her over in spite of what was possibly the worst opening line in the history of opening lines. "Has anyone ever told you you look like Barbara Streisand?" I stammered at a post-Doobie Brothers party. She was horrified, blushed, reached for her nose. "No, I meant your EYES!" It was lame, but I guess it worked.

I hope you had a most memorable Memorial Day, arguably the nicest in years.

Hurricane season kicks off today (officially); residents of the Gulf now have to contemplate waves of oil surging inland in the months to come. Puts our thunder threat into perspective - a few severe storms may bubble up later today. We dry out Wednesday, an eastbound storm arriving with more storms Thursday night, again Saturday. Sunday looks like the nicer day of the weekend with ample sun, highs in the 70s.

Severe Risk. Some of the ingredients are converging for a possible severe weather outbreak later today, just enough low-level moisture, wind shear and instability aloft for a few (isolated) severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Stay alert, stay tuned for possible watches/warnings later today.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

Today: Unsettled, more humidity with some sun. PM storms may be strong/severe. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 83

Tuesday night: Lingering T-storms. Low: 54

Wednesday: Becoming partly sunny, comfortably mild. High: 72

Thursday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. Showers/T-storms late. High: 76

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun, pleasantly warm. High: near 80

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a few hours of showers, possible thunder. High: 77

Sunday: (right now it looks like the nicer day). More clouds than sun, mild enough for the lake or pool. High: 76

Monday: Lingering clouds, a few showers nearby. High: 75

Mega-Tornado. Baca County, in southeastern Colorado, was under a continuous tornado warning from 1:57 pm to 6:45 pm, nearly 5 hours, which is pretty much unprecedented. No reports of damage or injury, but that must have been one amazing supercell thunderstorm. It probably wasn't the same tornado for 5 hours, but the same rotating "parent" thunderhead spun up a family of multiple tornadoes, one after another.

Speaking of Hollywood. The Icelandic volcano shot out boulders the size of VW's Monday - if you don't believe it check out this YouTube clip. The volcano's big sister, "Katla", is starting to rumble. If this (much larger) volcano comes to life all bets are off. It's happened before, and volcanologists have been warning for weeks that a Katla eruption may be imminent.

Flood Aftermath. Tropical Storm Agatha was a moderate-size storm, but it moved slowly, pouring out some 10-20" rainfall amounts, resulting in catastrophic flash flooding. Scores of Guatemalans have been killed, over 100,000 have fled their homes - the story from MSNBC is here.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

610 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010



...LEAST SNOWIEST SPRING ON RECORD AT SOUTH BEND IN...



SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE SPRING SEASON OF MARCH THROUGH MAY WAS JUST     

A TRACE...WHICH IS 10.4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS THE FIRST

SPRING SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT SOUTH BEND IN 1893 THAT NO MEASURABLE

SNOWFALL OCCURRED DURING THE SPRING SEASON. THE SPRING OF 2004

RECORDED JUST 0.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WHICH PREVIOUSLY HELD THE     

RECORD FOR THE LEAST SNOWIEST SPRING AT SOUTH BEND.  

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

605 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

 

...LEAST SNOWIEST SPRING ON RECORD AT FORT WAYNE IN...



SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE SPRING SEASON OF MARCH THROUGH MAY WAS JUST

A TRACE...WHICH IS 5.8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS TIES AS THE LEAST

SNOWIEST SPRING ON RECORD AT FORT WAYNE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1897.     

OTHER SPRING SEASONS WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOWFALL INCLUDE 1927...1946

AND 1990. 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

0521 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010  

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY...



 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT SYRACUSE NY TODAY.

THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1999.

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

0444 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010



...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WATERTOWN NY...



 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88 DEGREES WAS SET AT WATERTOWN NY     

TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SET IN 1999.

How Safe Is To Eat The Fish In Your Favorite Lake?

"My God! How little do my countrymen know what precious blessings they are in possession of, and which no other people on earth enjoy!" said Thomas Jefferson. Today we honor the nearly 1 million fallen soldiers since the Civil War, fellow citizens who paid the ultimate price for a freedom we all realize isn't free.

With a son at the U.S. Naval Academy I take nothing for granted, like so many military families I start and end every day with a prayer. "This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave," wrote Elmer Davis. Go out of your way to thank a member of the military today. Their sacrifice makes it possible for us to travel, grill, play on the lake and enjoy rights that most people on the planet do not take for granted.


The weather will be smile-worthy today, blue sky, a light south breeze, afternoon readings: mid 70s. A few instability showers may sprout north of Leech Lake, but a dry sky prevails over central and southern counties. The next storm drops .25 to .50" rain Tuesday, a cool, brisk Wednesday giving way to a beautiful Thursday. Showers and T-storms arrive late Friday, but most of next weekend will be dry and lukewarm. Nice.

Sunday Showers/Storms. As expected an eastbound cool front lit up the Doppler radar screen, many towns picking up 30-60 minutes of rain (even a little thunder/lightning) south/east of the metro area. As is usually the case during the summer season rainfall amounts were highly variable and fickle, ranging from nothing to as much as .15".

Sunday Almanac. Before the front arrived the mercury climbed to 81 at MSP International Airport, 83 in St. Paul, 91 in Eau Claire, WI. Behind the front Alexandria only mustered a high of 68, St. Cloud saw 72.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Memorial Day: Plenty of sun - VERY nice! PM showers pop far northern MN. Winds: S/SW 5-10. High: 78

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low: 62

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, unsettled with showers and a few T-storms possible. High: 75

Wednesday: Damp start, mostly cloudy, unusually cool for early June. High: 68

Thursday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High: near 70

Friday: Partly sunny - showers/T-storms arrive late. High: 75

Saturday: More clouds than sun, probably dry. High: 73

Sunday: Sun much of the day (showers may arrive Sunday night). High: 76

"Supercell" Time Lapse. The dangling (rotating) wall cloud observed in southeastern Colorado on May 25 was an immediate tip-off that this was no ordinary, garden-variety thunderstorm. It's here that a tornado is most likely to form. Click here to see a time lapse of this intensifying supercell (sometimes called a "mesocyclone").

China Tornado. The USA sees more tornadoes than any other nation on Earth. Number 2 on the list? China, followed closely by Russia and Australia - other regions where large contrasts in temperature and moisture can cause thunderstorms to mutate into spinning "supercells."


Light Show. There is a correlation between the frequency of lightning and the severity of a thunderstorm. If you see nearly continuous lightning there's a strong probability that the storm is especially severe, capable of large hail, damaging winds, even an isolated tornado. This storm struck near Goodland, Kansas on May 23.

Spreading Stain. An estimated 25% of the Gulf of Mexico is closed to fishing, according to NOAA. The oil from the Deepwater Horizon well is now being swept up into the "Loop Current", a natural, clockwise circulation of water in the Gulf - meaning it's a matter of days before more significant oil begins to wash up onto Florida's west coast. The story is here.


Is Your Lake Safe For Summer Recreation? Conservation Minnesota has put together an amazing site that allows you to check water quality for any lake in the state - you may be surprised by the results. I know I was - I was VERY surprised to see high levels of mercury on Pelican Lake, up near Breezy Point. That's a potentially big deal, especially for kids and pregnant women - before you dig into that fresh walleye click here to head over to checkmylake.org. Better safe than sorry. An article explaining the initiative is here. While you're there enter the "This Lake Matters" contest and represent your favorite lake - why is it so special? Time to spread the word...

Oil Spills & Hurricanes Don't Mix

Pretty Good Track Record. Thanks to the local NWS for providing a recap of Memorial Day Weather going back to 1900. The hottest Memorial Day? 98 in 1934. The chilliest? A high of 48 in 1992 (I remember that one - the natives were not happy). The wettest? 3.48" in 1942 (don't remember that one). Last year the high was 78 under a partly sunny sky, we salvaged a dry Memorial Day. Measurable rain has been observed only 2 of the last 10 Memorial Days. I think we'll add to our dry streak (5 relatively dry holidays in a row) with dry weather from Alexandria to St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, but a few hours of rain are possible from Bemidji to Duluth to International Falls and Thief River Falls. If you feel like reminiscing, click here to see NWS data for Memorial Days gone by.



Extended Outlook: Uncertain. How will any future tropical storms or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico impact the growing oil spill? Great question. According to NOAA the oil should not greatly impact the track or severity of any future storms, but the specter of oily waves being pushed inland by a hurricane's storm surge is difficult to even imagine. More details on the implications of an "oilicane" are here.

A Busy Hurricane Season? Once again hurricane researchers are predicting a busier than average summer/fall for hurricanes, based on a variety of factors, including sea surface temperatures, and a weakening El Nino (lighter winds blowing high above the tropics - producing more favorable conditions for T-storms to mutate into tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. The outlook: 14-23 named tropical storms, 8-14 hurricanes, 3 to 7 of which are forecast to be "major" category 3 or stronger, with sustained winds over 111 mph. More information here.


Hot Stuff. Under a brilliant blue sky the mercury soared to 90 in St. Cloud, 91 at the Twin Cities, 92 in Redwood Falls, temperatures 15 degrees above average for May 29.

Happy Sunday - my wife turns 50 today, and I'm still in the midst of birthday-planning festivities, so I'll have to make today's weather blog short and sweet, which pretty much sums up the forecast. An eastbound cool front arrives later with building clouds and a few passing showers and thundershowers, but it won't be an all-afternoon rain, some towns may escape with NO rain. Expect a cooler day with highs mostly in the 70s, winds shifting around to the west (10-20 mph, with a few gusts over 30 mph. in the vicinity of T-showers). We can't totally rule out a few isolated severe storms, but we don't have all the ingredients for a widespread severe weather outbreak. I expect mostly garden-variety, generic thundershowers, maybe an hour or two of rain for some neighborhoods.

Sunday PM Showers/Storms. The NAM model valid at 6 pm (showing accumulated rainfall from noon to 6 pm) is hinting at some .25+" rainfall amounts as a cool front pushes east, a few locally heavy thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

Drier Memorial Day. Monday looks drier and sunnier over central and southern Minnesota, low humidity levels, light winds blowing from the south/southwest at 5-15 mph. But if your cabin is in the northern third of Minnesota be on the lookout for scattered instability showers, mainly PM hours, highs holding in the 60s north of Brainerd and Crosby.



Monday looks comfortable with ample sun over central and southern counties, but the northern third or so of Minnesota will see a rapid build-up of clouds, and a few (light) showers can't be ruled out, highs holding mostly in the 60s north of Leech Lake. Expect low 70s central counties, mid 70s south of a line from Willmar to the Twin Cities, low humidity, a light breeze blowing from the south/southwest at 5-10 mph, a very nice way to end the 3-day holiday weekend across much of the state.

The chance of rain increases again Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over southern Minnesota, readings mostly in the low 70s with a few hours of showers each day. We should dry out later in the week, the early look at next weekend looks mostly-promising, although it's still way too early to try and get specific.

Hope you can sneak outside today and soak up some lukewarm sun. One word of advise: the earlier in the day you get out onto the lake (or beach/golf course) the better. The weather sours by afternoon, clouds increase from west to east, the latest (NAM) model printing out nearly a quarter inch of rain from mid afternoon into early tonight as the cool front arrives. That's an average, some towns will see virtually nothing, while other towns 10 miles down the road pick up over half an inch of rain falling in under 3-4 hours.

Could be worse - all in all add weather to a long list of things to be thankful for this Memorial Day weekend. Have fun, be careful out there....



Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota.

Today: Morning sun, PM clouds, a growing chance of showers/T-storms. Winds: West 10-20. High: 77

Tonight: Showers and storms taper late, turning cooler. Low: 56

Memorial Day: Plenty of sun, low humidity, very nice. A few PM clouds/showers possible northern third of MN. Winds: S/SW 5-15. High: 76

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, showers arrive. High: 72

Wednesday: Periods of rain (best chance southern MN). High: 69

Thursday: Sun returns, drier statewide. High: 75

Friday: Partly sunny, showers and T-storms arrive late. High: 78

Saturday: Sunshine most of the day, very pleasant. High: near 80

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Friday: Blue sky - beautiful! High: 85

Fright night: Clear, full moonlit skies. Watch for northern lights! Low: 62

Saturday: Hazy sun, warmest day of the holiday weekend. Winds: S 10-20. High: 87

Sunday: Unsettled with increasing clouds, chance of a PM shower or T-shower. Winds: W 10-20. High: 82

Memorial Day: Partly sunny, breezy and cooler. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 72 (holding in the 60s north of Little Falls).

Tuesday: Clouds increase during the day, chance of a shower late. High: 74

Wednesday: Chance of thunder, best chance southern MN. High: 75

Thursday: Slight thunder potential. High: 73

Memorial Weekend Weather

Warmest day: Saturday (still looks like the best day for the pool or lake, highs well up into the 80s statewide, winds blowing from the south at 10-20, a little chop on area lakes.

Wettest day: Sunday. I still don't envision an all-day rain, maybe an hour or two of showers (possible thunder) as a cooler front pushes east from the Dakotas. Best chance of a little rain? Late afternoon and evening. Expect highs in the 70s, winds turning to the west by afternoon at 10-20 mph.

Coolest day: Memorial Day. Take a sweatshirt of jacket if you're heading up north. You'll wake up to 40s Monday morning, with highs stuck in the low 60s. Clouds will increase by afternoon, with a stiff northwest wind at 10-20 mph. Not a great day on the lake up north, but metro area lakes should be partly sunny with highs in the 69-73 range. Not a bad day, but not nearly as nice as Saturday to hit the water.

Aurora Alert

This is from www.spaceweather.com "High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading for Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on May 27th or 28th."

A Fly in the Ointment

The only real threat of not seeing the potential northern lights will be the full moon (flower moon - flowers are now abundant everywhere. It is also known as the full corn planting moon or the milk moon) The additional light from the moon will make any faint colors even harder to see. Good luck out there under those crystal clear skies the next couple of nights.

Record Low April Snow

Winter 2009-2010 was much colder than normal for the United States, and it delivered a string of record-breaking snowstorms that began on the winter solstice.

The snow and cold didn’t linger far into the spring, however. By the end of April, North American snow cover had retreated to the lowest extent in the 1967–2010 record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s April 2010 State of the Climate Report. This map shows percent snow cover across North America in April 2010 based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Percent snow cover ranges from just above zero (light blue) to 100 percent (white). Land areas with no detectable snow cover during the month are gray.

According to NOAA, “Across North America, snow cover for April 2010 was 2.2 million square kilometers below average—the lowest April snow cover extent since satellite records began in 1967 and the largest negative anomaly to occur in the 521 months that satellite measurements are available.” Unusual warmth descended on North America in April, leading to both low snowfall amounts and rapid melt of existing snow.

The Earth Observatory’s Global Maps section provides an animation of monthly, global snow cover from February 2000 to the present.

Have a good Friday and a great weekend - Todd Nelson