Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
Brush with Fame. If you watch "Rescue Me" on FX you know who that guy is standing next to Don Shelby. That's actor (and all-around good guy) Dennis Leary, who plays a beleaguered, mentally-tortured firefighter in one of the best shows on television. He was in town at the State Theater earlier this week for the "Rescue Me Comedy Tour", and posed for a photo with a (very excited) Don and Mark Rosen. For the record: Leary was in town raising money for the families of firefighters lost in 9/11. "Rescue Me" is definitely not kid-friendly, but do yourself a favor and check out the show. It's dark, hilarious and poignant - nothing like it on the tube.
Hurricane Alex. The first hurricane of the season came ashore well south of Brownsville, Texas around 11 pm (central) time last night, with sustained winds close to 100 mph, a category 2 storm. One model brings the tropical remains of Alex all the way into Phoenix by Tuesday of next week. That seems unlikely, but the precise track of this (rapidly weakening) storm remains a mystery. Graphics courtesy of Ham Weather.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Today: Sunny, windy and warmer. Winds: South 15-30. High: 85
Thursday night: Clear and mild. Low: 65
Friday: Plenty of sun, still gusty and warm. High: 87
Saturday: Sticky with hazy sun, bordering on HOT! T-storms possible late in the day across far northern/western MN. Winds: S 15-25 (choppy on area lakes). High: near 90
Saturday night: T-storms likely, especially central and western MN. Low: 70
Sunday: More clouds, unsettled with showers and T-storms likely. Winds: SW/W 10-15. High: 82
Monday: Partly sunny, breezy and less humid. Winds: W/NW 10-15. High: 84
Tuesday: Intervals of sun, still warm. High: 85
Wednesday: Patchy clouds, chance of a passing shower or T-storm. High: 82
* 32 at Embarrass, MN Wednesday morning. Yes, patchy frost was reported between Tower and Embarrass, a little over a week after the Summer Solstice!
Wednesday Magic. What a day - bright sun across most of the state, the temperature in Hibbing rose nearly 40 degrees, from a morning low of 35. International Falls woke up to 36 F, one degree away from an all-time record. Highs ranged from a brisk 62 at Grand Marais to a balmy 82 at Redwood Falls.
If we could only bottle this weather and save it for November - or February, or mid April. I hope you've been able to soak up this incredible streak of sunny weather, as good as it ever gets in Minnesota. A transfusion of Canadian air dropped dew points into the 40s, more typical of late September than late June and early July. And what a start to a new month: more blue sky, a gusty breeze (blowing from the south/southeast at speeds up to 25-30 mph right into Saturday). Those warm winds will start to pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward, and summerlike levels of humidity will return - dew points in the 60s by Friday, maybe pushing 70 by late Saturday.
Flood Warnings. As much as 2-5" of rain fell in the Minnesota River Valley last Saturday, nearly a month's worth of rain in less than 8 hours. The Cottonwood and Minnesota Rivers are both expected to crest above flood stage - all the details from the NWS are here.
July is the only month in Minnesota where frost hasn't been observed somewhere up north. We came close to shattering that record though - Wednesday morning the mercury sank to an eye-popping 32 up at Embarrass, just a little over 1 week after the summer solstice. Amazing.
From frost to heat, in the meteorological blink of an eye. 90 is possible Saturday if the sun stays out (likely). Factor in a dew point from 65-70 and it may feel like mid, even upper 90s Saturday, a true taste of summertime heat. Stake out your favorite lake or pool and you'll be just fine. Umbrellas optional for Taste of Minnesota much of Saturday, again Monday, but if you're heading out on the 4th it's a different story. Although I don't expect a raging, all-day rain-out, I could see 2-5 hours of showers and T-storms Sunday, definitely the wettest, most unsettled day of the holiday weekend.
Partly-Soggy Sunday. No panic - it won't rain all day (I pray) but a few hours of showers and storms are expected Sunday as a cooler, drier front pushes in from the Dakotas. In the metro area the best chance of T-storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Plan on more clouds, high humidity levels, winds easing up a bit, shifting to the southwest, then more westerly by late in the day.
Holiday Weather Recap:
Hottest, windiest day: Saturday (south winds gust over 30 mph. at times).
Wettest day: Sunday (2-5 hours of showers and a few heavy T-storms).
Most comfortable day: Monday. A welcome drop in humidity is expected behind a cool frontal passage, highs still in the low to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.
July Climate Data. Curious about averages and record for July? No? Just killing time. Click here for your very own (free) climate calendar for July. You'll be the envy of the neighborhood.
Blown Away. Do you enjoy watching reporters almost become airborne during hurricane live shots? If so you'll enjoy this delightful collage of "stand-ups". Nobody did it better than Dan Rather, who got his big break covering a hurricane moving into Houston. Click here to waste a few more valuable minutes, video courtesy of the Mother Nature Network. I didn't even know there WAS a Mother Nature Network.
"Showers of Oil?" Check out this YouTube clip, actually there are multiple video clips on YouTube all showing pretty much the same thing: oily rain hitting the Gulf coast. Now under normal conditions oil doesn't evaporate. But some experts are theorizing that with all the recent chemicals being poured on the oil in the Gulf of Mexico, some strange reaction may be taking place that scientists are unable to explain. At first I dismissed this as a hoax, just a few people out with cameras trying to get attention. But the more I looked at this video the more I started to wonder if maybe there really is oil (somehow) mixing in with the rain falling on coastal communities. This has never happened before, a spill of this magnitude and duration. We are in uncharted waters - at this point I guess I wouldn't rule anything out. This catastrophe has humbled the alleged "experts", so who knows what is true and what isn't. Take a look. Tell me what you think.
Hurricane Alex. The first hurricane of the season, Alex is expected to strengthen into a strong category 1 storm, possibly a weak category 2 hurricane, hitting the coast of Mexico with 80-95 mph winds late Wednesday. A storm surge of 3-5 feet is possible, along with 10-15" rains inland. It appears that South Texas will see heavy thunderstorms and wind gusts to 50 mph, but the brunt of Alex will stay south of the U.S.
Landfall. A consensus of weather models predicts landfall around 8:15 pm this evening about 100-200 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, hitting the coast with sustained winds over 90 mph, gusts as high as 114 mph.
Flight Path. The "Hurricane Hunter" reconnaissance aircraft (big, sturdy turbo-prop aircraft) make multiple passes, punching through the core of the storm, measuring winds, barometric pressure and turbulence - "dropsondes" are released from the aircraft, small weather instruments (with parachutes) that measure weather conditions all the way from 10,000 feet down to the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. It's a bumpy ride, but these planes can sustain the turbulence. The only time they don't fly? When the hurricane comes ashore and passes over land. The reason (as I discovered when I flew into a hurricane in 2005): the risk of tornadoes increases exponentially once the hurricane encounters land - the last thing the crew wants to do is fly into a developing tornado funnel, capable of ripping wings off the aircraft.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Today: Bright sun, beautiful. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 79
Wednesday night: Clear and comfortable. Low: 62
Thursday: Starting to feel more like summer again, mostly sunny, warmer. High: 84
Friday: Partly sunny, feeling sticky. High: 86
Saturday: Hazy sunshine, muggy - a stiff breeze (South 15-30). High: near 90
Saturday night: Showers and T-storms possible, especially western MN. Low: 71
4th of July: More clouds than sun, unsettled - showers/T-storms likely. High: 84
Monday: Better, sunnier and drier statewide with a drop in humidity. High: 86
Tuesday: Plenty of sun, still pleasant. High: 84
Look out the window. Exhibit A. Proof positive that - yes - Minnesota is still America's best kept secret. My oldest son, Walt, just graduated from Penn State (he's working with me at WeatherNation, helping out with post-production, editing, video challenges in general - I'm very proud of him). Most of the people attending Penn State are from the east, a significant percentage of his friends consistently mixed up Minnesota with Montana. He would bring up the lakes, the culture, the arts, the music scene, and they would always get this distant, vacant look in their eyes. "You live WHERE...?" Minnesota. My Mother in Law thought we were living in Milwaukee (easy to mix up the M-Cities, I guess). A favorite aunt wished me luck as I was about to fly back to "Indianapolis."
Most Americans have no idea what we have up here, and it's probably just as well. Let them swap urban legends of our winters (reinforced by the national media). "They test batteries in International Falls, don't they?" Minnesota, let's see: Prince, Jesse Ventura, and The Capital of Cold. In that order. Repeat. Once people come here, and see it with their own two eyes, their opinion of Minnesota forever changes. They sample our extraordinary suburbs. "You mean ALL the public schools are good?" Yep. "How can that be?" I shrug - visibly proud of my adopted state. "It's clean, safe, people actually take the time to smile and ask how you're doing - it's all an act, right?" Yes, Minnesota is composed of roughly 5 million actors, all pretending to be nice.
I know we have our issues and problems - I want to live long enough to see the Crosstown Commons (mess) completed. Summer construction is a bummer, the lakes are getting increasingly polluted, choked with runoff and millfoil. But overall the air is clean, pollution is minimal (compared to Chicago and the Philadelphia area, where I was born, where many days the sky was so hazy and orange you had trouble finding the sun - I kid you not). I do not take our relatively pristine environment for granted, not for a minute, which makes it hard for me to share a troubling story about the loon population (from Conservation MN - see below).
O.K. Sorry to sound like a shill for the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce, but sometimes we forget what we have here - we get caught up in our problem-of-the-day. One of the things I like most about the great state of Minnesota? You can see all the way to tomorrow - just about 40 miles in every direction. Every day we get to enjoy a (free) show unfolding overhead, with amazing clouds formations, awe-inspiring sunrises and sunsets - every day is different, every weather pattern unique. I know, what a weather-geek. Guilty as charged. I would lose my mind in Palm Springs, San Diego or Miami (after a couple of years....) Seriously, what do the meteorologists in those towns do?
Nice to get a break this week, after tracking nearly 200 severe storms over a 10-day period from June 17-26. No tornadoes up until June 17, then 36 in 10 days. Very odd. Southern Minnesota is finally drying out after drenching, almost tropical rains on Saturday. Welcome to the 4th dry day in a row (!) with bright sun, temperatures mellowing a few degrees (after a cool start, that is). A few towns up north are waking up to 40s, light jackets and sweatshirts - you'll be able to abandon any jacket by 9 am, highs approaching 80 by late afternoon as winds swing around to the southeast. Another perfect day.
No weather worries through Saturday as temperatures mellow, within 24-48 hours it will feel like summer again, with highs well up into the 80s - 90 is not out of the question Saturday afternoon (with a gusty south wind, blowing at 15-25 with a few gust to 30). Plan on a choppy boat ride on your favorite lake, but the sun should be out most of the day - showers and storms holding off until Saturday night (when some of the rain may be heavy at times).
Free Fireworks? Of course, you knew this would happen (months ago). Major holidays attract rain - works like clockwork. An eastbound cool front will spark showers and storms, the best chance of rain will come Sunday, the 4th, and a few of the storms could be hefty, even severe. Not an all-day rain, but maybe 2-4 hours of showers and T-storms. Have a Plan B for part of the day Sunday, the best chance of some rain coming midday and PM hours. The map shows accumulated rain expected from midday into the evening hours Sunday.
The 4th? Far from perfect, but probably not an all-day rain, maybe 2-4 hours of showers and T-storms as a cool front pushes across the state, winds easing, blowing from the west to northwest at 8-13 with a few higher gusts in the vicinity of T-storms. That front keeps sailing east, treating us to a mostly sunny, mostly-dry Monday. So two out of the three days look dry and lake-friendly. Not bad odds for the biggest weekend of summer.
Weekend Weather Highlights
Best lake day: Saturday: sunshine, gusty, but dry. Winds: S 15-30. High: 85-90
4th of July: More clouds than sun, 1-2 hours of showers/storms. Winds: W/NW 8-13. High: 82-87
Monday: Plenty of sun, drop in humidity, probably dry. Winds: W 10-15. High: 83-87
Spill Endangering Rare Bird Habitats. We've seen the heartbreaking (disgusting) picture of dead fish, pelicans and turtles. Ecologists are increasingly worried about the long-term impact on the bird population of the Gulf Coast - many Minnesota birds migrate to the Gulf region during the winter months - we have no idea what the long-term impact will be on the U.S. bird population. The story is here.
Green Slime. A ban on phosphorus in laundry detergent goes into effect this week in Minnesota, one of 15 states banning the harmful chemicals that run off into streams and lakes, accelerating the formation of algae that can reduce oxygen content, killing off fish and making some lakes unfit for swimming. The story from Conservation Minnesota is here.
Silence of the Loons? Minnesota's icon state bird, the loon, may be face imminent danger from the unprecedented oil spill in the Gulf. Loons migrate south for the winter, most of them fly to the Gulf coast, where they face a potentially perilous winter season this year - in all probability oil will be washing up on the Gulf coast for 1-2 years to come, even in a best-case scenario. What if anything can be done? The story from Conservation MN is here.
Hurricane Warning. "Alex" is heading for the south coast of Texas, where watches have been upgraded to warnings - the evacuations are well underway. The storm may arrive as early as Wednesday as a category 1 storm, sustained winds of 75-90 mph. The only good news: the hurricane will avoid the worst of the oil spill, currently concentrated over the central and eastern Gulf.
Recipe for Trouble. The National Weather Service office in Chanhassen has a good explanation for why severe weather spiked so dramatically between June 17-26. An unusually strong jet stream swirling 4-8 miles overhead, coupled with ample low-level moisture and extreme instability whipped up the conditions necessary for rotating "supercell" thunderstorms, able to translate strong wind shear around a vertical axis, a tornado.
The numbers are mind-boggling: 109 warnings over a 10 day period, 42% of them tornado warnings, in addition to 7 flash flood warnings. By the time it was all over the local NWS office reported a total of 199 severe weather reports across central and southern Minnesota - in 10 days! More information here.
Monday Memories. After a gray start yesterday mellowed into a beautiful day, more typical of early September than late June. Dew points dipped into the 40s, even some upper 30s, incredibly dry for this time of year, the result of gusty winds howling out of central Canada. Highs ranged from 67 at International falls to 74 in St Cloud, 75 in the Twin Cities.
Hey, is it me or is "Flo" from the Progressive insurance ads EVERYWHERE!! They are carpet-bombing the TV airwaves. My random thought for the day.
These are tough times for a lot of people - too many good people looking for work, I get a handful of e-mails or phone calls every day from (talented) people who are searching for anything, I can hear the desperation in their voices. In the last few years business has changed - fundamentally - between outsourcing overseas and the rise of the pervasive Internet Society many jobs have disappeared, and unlike in the past, many of them won't come back. The middleman has been (what's the kind word?) - disintermediated. Made obsolete, virtually overnight. People are going direct to the source in this new "efficient, streamlined, always-on economy." Right.
We've all become our own "news directors", grazing on news all day, between e-mail alerts, Twitter updates, Facebook, favorite web sites, and now a new generation of apps on our smart phones. We're swimming in a sea of information, drowning in data. The statisticians tell us that "productivity is up," meaning with the 'net many of us are now doing the jobs that 2-4 people did 20 years ago. I'm afraid to turn on the news, between shrill oil spill updates and commentators squawking about a double-dip recession (the "d-word" has been thrown around in recent days, just what we want to hear) - I shudder to think what "business as usual" will need for my kids, for our kids. Keep in mind I'm a naive optimist. But this has been no ordinary downturn. This is nothing less than a total restructuring of business, forget the scalpel, we're talking amputations here. A lot of my 50-something friends are dazed, in a state of perpetual shock. What now - retraining for a new business? Work from home? Consulting? 20-somethings are prepared for rapid change and new challenges, but people who have been in the workforce for 30+ years are expected to turn on a dime and learn a new profession, overnight?
I know these are trying times for many of us - I've just gone through the toughest 2 1/2 years of my life - I feel like I was pushed out of a speeding 737 with a toddler-size parachute. Thank God I've always had a perpetual itch to start companies, to never (totally) trust an employer, to always have "something on the side." I tell all my friends, and anyone else who will listen, to always have a Plan B, C and D. No matter how secure you THINK your job is, assume a worst-case scenario and plant some seeds elsewhere that you may need (badly) down the road.
I still love weather, still feel richly blessed to be able to research and launch meteorology-related companies, banding together with (very) smart people to turn a vision into a reality, but it's gotten tougher than ever out there to stay ahead of the curve, to "add value", to avoid entering into a commodity business that Google (or another Internet beast) will make irrelevant overnight. Some days it seems like all of us are treading water, waiting, wondering, hoping for better days ahead. They'll come - eventually - but I fear it will take a major catastrophe, another 9/11, for us to (quoting good 'ol Abe Lincoln) "find our better angels", band together, and put our petty differences and squabbles aside - and truly unite as one nation.
Not sure where that came from, but the weather is quiet (really non-existent) and the current (tortuous) state of business has been on my mind. Hedge your bets, think up a viable Plan B, save for a rainy day, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. In the end, that's all we can do. That, and learn a foreign language, pick up HTML, start a blog (get your name out there!) and see if you can't turn something you truly love, something you're passionate about, into a business. Give it away (at first) if you have to, just to get it out there. If you set out to serve people, really help people, the profits will come, if you're patient, diligent, and able to turn on a dime. The one thing I've learned in 30 years of starting companies: the truly flexible, adaptable businesses survive. If you build flexibility into your DNA, if you're constantly trying to reinvent your company, you'll find a way through the (current) minefield. The Internet is a threat - and the biggest business opportunity ever invented. Find a way to tame the web and profit from the breathtaking changes taking place right now.
Sorry for the rant - I know, "break the tablet in half, Paul." Got it. Don't mean to be Debby Downer - just acknowledging the pain out there right now. It's getting increasingly hard to ignore.
There is no weather - sweatshirts and light jackets early this morning give way to lukewarm sun by afternoon, highs in the low to mid 70s (with considerably less wind than the last 2 days). Can't get outside today? No worries - our sunny streak should last all week long as a bubble of Canadian high pressure stalls out nearby. During the latter half of the week winds increase from the south, temperatures return to July-like levels, highs poking up into the 80s with a return of the "stickies" by Friday.
Saturday Storms. Dry weather should hold through Friday and at least the first half of Saturday. An approaching cool front pushes bands of showers and (potentially heavy) T-storms into the Red River Valley by midday Saturday, spreading across much of northern and central MN as the afternoon goes on. The chance of rain increases later in the day Saturday, one GFS model prints out nearly .70" of rain late Saturday and Saturday night for the area.
Mostly-Dry 4th? This NAM/WRF map is valid Sunday evening, showing accumulated rainfall amounts from midday through the evening Sunday - hinting that the most widespread T-storms will be over far southeastern MN, Wisconsin and Iowa. A passing shower or T-storm can't be ruled out anywhere in the state, but right now it appears the vast majority of Sunday will be dry, highs in the low to mid 80s, skies sunnier/drier the farther north/west you drive, away from the metro area.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Today: Bright sun, less wind than yesterday, cool & comfortable. Winds: N 10-15. High: 74
Tuesday night: Clear and comfortably cool. Low: 55
Wednesday: Sunny and beautiful. High: 78
Thursday: Plenty of sun, still dry - noticeably warmer. High: 84
Friday: Partly sunny, sticky and very warm. High: 87
Saturday: Sunshine giving way to increasing clouds, best chance of PM T-storms up north. High: 84
4th of July: Partly sunny, slightly less humid, risk of a brief, passing shower or T-storm. High: 85
36 Tornadoes in 10 Days. That's the unofficial number, the NWS office may tweak that number in the coming days, but I counted 6 more tornadoes Saturday, most south of the MN River. Damaging wind reports show up as orange icons, the green icons are flash flood reports, blue for severe hail. For a complete (text) rundown of all the damage reports compiled by the local NWS office in Chanhassen, click here.
* Over 2" of rain, officially, at MSP International Saturday night.
* 3-4" rainfall amounts over the far south metro, resulting in severe flash flooding. A month's worth of rain fell in less than 8 hours.
* This week: one of the best of summer? A drop in temperature and humidity as Canadian air pushes south.
* Next chance of T-storms: Saturday night and Sunday (4th of July), but right now now extended, all-day rains are expected for the holiday.
* Alex expected to strengthen into the season's first hurricane, at least a 40-50% probability the storm may come ashore over Texas by late Thursday or Friday.
Fear of the Unknown. Now that Tropical Storm Alex has passed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and it's out over the warm, 83-degree waters of the Gulf of Mexico, further intensification is likely - it may become a hurricane as early as Tuesday or Wednesday. The models are wildly divergent - there's still a good chance Alex will track back into Mexico. But several of the models hook the storm farther to the north, threatening coastal Texas the latter half of the week. Just what residents of the Gulf of Mexico were hoping NOT to see. Graphic courtesy of Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Today: Mostly sunny, still windy and comfortable. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 76
Monday night: Clear and cool (jacket weather up north). Low: 55 (!)
Tuesday: Bright sun, less wind. High: 77
Wednesday: Sunny and beautiful. High: 80
Thursday: Mostly sunny, a bit warmer, and more humid. High: 83
Friday: Hanging onto sun - still dry statewide. High: 84
Saturday: Good day for the lake or pool. Partly sunny, hazy and sticky. High: 86
4th of July: Less sun, unsettled - passing T-storm possible by afternoon/evening. High: 85
Welcome to the Land of All or Nothing. Either the sun is out, our we're battling horizontal rains, scattered tornadoes, the sirens are wailing, hail is bouncing off our windshields, and our cars are (conveniently) turned into boats. Such was the case over the weekend - at least 6 tornado touch downs on Saturday (5 in southern Minnesota, another reported touch down east of Crookston, up in the Red River Valley). A month's worth of rain fell from near Glencoe to Bloomington, some 2-4"+ amounts, enough rain to turn streets into rivers. Baseball-size hail (4" diameter) was reported from a few of these "supercell" thunderstorms, along with some unforgettable lightning displays (did you SEE the wild zigs and zags of lightning over the south metro Saturday night?) Unbelievable.
Sunday Magic. What a day, bright sun almost statewide (although I have to feel sorry for the locals up in Grand Marais, where the "high" was a meager 58). St. Cloud and the Twin Cities saw a high of 84. 24 hour rainfall in the cities: 2.15" - that's more than 2 weeks worth of rain during a 6-8 hour period Saturday night.
And then Sunday came along, winds swung around to the northwest, chasing the showers into Wisconsin by midday, the sun came out (and oddly, stayed out), and with the exception of white-cap-inducing, 30 mph gusts, it wasn't too bad at all out there. All or nothing.
Now we sit back and enjoy what may wind up being the "nicest week of summer", which is surely subjective, but if you like blue sky and comfortable humidity levels, you're in luck, at least through Thursday. A bubble of Canadian high pressure will loiter over the Upper Midwest for the next 72-96 hours, virtually NO chance of rain (or quality-time curled up in the fetal position in your favorite basement) between now and Saturday morning. That's right: at least 5 dry days in a row. We're due.
We've seen an estimated 36 tornadoes since June 16. That's more tornadoes than we usually see during an entire summer season, during one crazy 10 day period. All or nothing.
In today's print column I mention the quandary that all meteorologists face - when we see strong rotation on Doppler radar the urge is to get on the air and err on the side of safety. The problem? 7 out of 10 tornado warnings (issued by the local National Weather Service) wind up being false alarms. Sometimes (oddly enough) the most rapidly spinning storms (called "supercells") fail to spin up tornadoes.
Our worst fear? A camera thrust into the face of a tornado survivor who goes on to mumble, "there was no warning. The tornado struck without warning!" So we overcompensate, probably to excess. No, I'm not a hypocrite - when I was at KARE and 'CCO I interrupted more than my fair share of programming, not because I wanted to see myself on the tube (never did get used to that) but because I wanted to make sure we were on the air when conditions were truly life-threatening, when some poor community might truly get blasted off the map. That happened, in St. Peter and Granite Falls, it happened again in Siren, Wisconsin. I walked those towns after the tornadoes hit, counseled a group of shaken survivors in a church in St. Peter - what happened in those communities was etched into my memory banks. I will never, ever forget the looks I saw on the faces of the tornado survivors. Not one of them accused me of "interrupting their favorite show."
Is there too much coverage on local TV and radio? Possibly - yes. But when and where do you draw the line? As I mention in the column, do you honestly believe that people living in Wadena believe we over-hyped that tornado? It was an EF-4, winds over 175 mph, it scraped well-built homes right off their foundations.
There were times, in the recent past (I won't name names) where I wanted to get on the air (with a tornado warning) and get off again, but the news director told me to stay on the air, "keep talking Paul". But the threat is over? "Stay on the air Paul." Yeah, you don't have to take the calls from irate Oprah viewers. I'll never quite get over it either. No station in town wants to be the first one to go off the air. "It sends the wrong message," the consultants told us. People click around the dial with their remote controls - if a station isn't covering severe weather, viewers will find a station that is. And yet, if the tornado in question is 100 miles away, people quickly lose interest, and become irritated. "Why are you messing up my show, Paul?" A tornado on the ground, some town getting shellacked by Mother Nature, and (I'm not exaggerating) we would get scores of calls and e-mails. "Paul, it's not my county, that's 14 counties away, for God's sake - get off the air. We don't care!" Yet when I ask these callers what I should do if a tornado was bearing down on THEIR town, they don't know how to answer. "Well sure, I'd want to know, what are you, stupid?" Yes, I guess I am. Everyone wants to know when their town is in Mother Nature's cross-hairs, yet they have no patience if it's a county out in "greater Minnesota", well away from the metro area.
What we really have here is a technology problem: we're still using 20th century equipment to BROADCAST warnings to the entire state. It's ludicrous, almost laughable, that 85+ counties have to be warned when a tiny fraction of ONE COUNTY is under the gun. That's why viewers become a). irate, and b). apathetic. "It never materializes. The meteorologists are crying wolf again." We're using a shotgun, when a laser is what's called for.
Ultimately the Internet will fix this problem. New TV sets are web-enabled. Smart phones are GPS-smart. Soon we'll be able to pinpoint warnings for just those towns in the path of a tornado. Everyone else can keep watching Oprah or Deadliest Catch or the Twins ball game in peace. That's the way it should be. Until then we'll all have to grin and bear it, for at least another year or two. But our grandkids will look back and LAUGH that we had to spam an entire state, for microscopic storms that impact a minuscule portion of the viewing area. They won't understand why we had to do it that way. Right now we're limited by technology, but that will change, and sooner than you might think.
I'm tired - let's get off this topic. My head hurts, but I do understand the frustration out there. We're all tornado-weary at this point.
Hurricane Alex? The NAM/WRF models seems to strengthen Alex into a category 2 hurricane, which proceeds to hug the Texas coast, drifting to the north/northwest, coming ashore somewhere near Houston by Friday morning (this map is valid Friday morning). Steering winds over the Gulf of Mexico are light - confidence level on where this thing is ultimately heading is low. One saving grace - most of the oil is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico - Alex will be stirring things up over the western Gulf. That said, a sustained counterclockwise flow around Alex will push those underwater clouds of crude north, toward coastal Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and even the Florida panhandle - I wouldn't be surprised to see a larger volume of oil being pushed ashore this week. Again, I hope I'm wrong on this call.
Back to our weather - dry and gorgeous for the entire week, but by Saturday a southerly wind will begin pumping sticky air back into Minnesota, highs in the mid 80s with dew points rising through the 60s. By Friday and Saturday it will feel like summer again, and you'll get an undeniable urge to go jump in a lake. Most of Saturday looks dry, but an eastbound cool front may spark a few T-storms from Saturday night into Sunday - some clearing/drying possible on Monday, July 5.
4th of July (Atmospheric) Fireworks? The same NAM/WRF model brings a weakening cool front across the state Sunday, with a slight chance of mostly late-day T-storms. Notice the big red bulls-eye of heavy rain over Chicago/Milwaukee/Madison? Those are the soggy remains of "Alex", forecast to be swept almost due north over the weekend. It may be a VERY wet 4th of July for the Windy City, if this model verifies.
I realize how important the weekend forecast is (believe me, I get it), we'll keep scanning the maps and keep our fingers (and eyes) crossed, hoping for a mostly-promising 4th of July Outlook. Hey, what can possibly go wrong?
Star Tribune Monday (print) Weather Column
EF-5. KSN-TV's coverage of the F-5 tornado that leveled the town of Greensburg, Kansas on May 4, 2007. The tornado was 1.7 miles wide, lingered over the town for nearly 10 minutes, flattening nearly ever building in the city. 11 people lost their lives that night in Greensburg, but the death toll could have easily risen into the hundreds, had it not been for a 20-25 minute warning from the local National Weather Service office and TV/radio meteorologists tracking the tornado.
Outlook: weather hype
How much weather "coverage" is too much? By going "wall to wall" with tornado warnings are we creating a state of apathetic, storm-phobic citizens - crying wolf, desensitizing Minnesotans to severe weather? Not sure, it's a real dilemma.
It's true that 70% of tornado warnings wind up being false alarms; strong rotation rarely spins up a twister. But it's a fine line; nobody wants to be caught
with their Dopplers down. Would residents of Wadena, where an EF-4 tornado packing 175 mph. winds, struck earlier this month, believe there was "too much coverage?" Doubt it. The problem: we're using 20th century technology to broadcast the weather-equivalent of a needle in a haystack. Does it make sense to blast warnings to 85+ counties when only a fraction of ONE county will get hit?
The 'net will solve the problem, web-enabled TV's and smart phones.Only people in the direct path will get the warning, the rest of us can enjoy Oprah in peace. Stay tuned. 6 more tornadoes Saturday; 36 for the season?
At least we enjoyed a sunny (windblown) Sunday. Welcome to the nicest week of summer: dry, sunny skies through Saturday. A T-storm flares up on the 4th, while "Hurricane" Alex hits Texas.
Sunday Tornado Reports. The NWS reported tornadoes near Blue Earth, north of Winnebago and Freeborn, Brownsdale and west of Good Thunder. There may have been more - we won't know until the NWS dispatches teams to these communities to look for evidence of more touchdowns. For a complete wrap-up of wind, hail and tornado reports, click here.
Gulf Residents Are Holding Their Breath. Alex came ashore over Belize late Saturday, the tropical storm will weaken over land, but then re-intensify as it moves back over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFDL is predicting winds over 100 mph before (Hurricane) Alex comes ashore somewhere on the Texas coast Thursday morning. Most of the oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico - the tropical storm/hurricane will whip up huge swells, capable of pushing the underwater "clouds" of crude toward the Gulf coast. My hunch is that the storm may accelerate the amount of oil reaching coastal Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and even Florida this week. I hope I'm wrong. For the latest updates click over to the NHC web site for the latest on Alex.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Saturday: Less sun, muggy and warm - a growing chance of a T-storm. High: 82
I'm getting sick of using the term, "supercell". Good grief. When were we all magically transported to Oklahoma? I counted at least 5 tornadoes Sunday evening (bringing our unofficial subtotal for the year up to 35, give or take). I also saw some 2-4" rainfall amounts from near Glencoe to Bloomington, where streets flooded, cars were submerged - getting around the south metro last night was a crazy mess, lightning darting (almost continuously), horizontal rains. Delightful.
Rainfall Recap. As of 12:15 am Sunday morning much of the south metro had received 1-3" rains, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 4"+ reports come out. To put that into perspective that's nearly a month's worth of rain in about 3 hours. No wonder streets (temporarily) turned into rivers and traffic came to a screeching halt.
Yesterday's noisy front will push east today, winds shift around to the west to northwest (gusting to 25 mph at times). Dramamine recommended if you're heading out on the lake later, but the sun should be more noticeable as the day goes on, humidity levels dropping off as the day goes on. We can all decompress, relax, not stress about Doppler-speak. I know it sounds incredible, but it may not rain again until next Saturday. High pressure migrating south out of Canada will temporarily stall out, leaving us mostly sunny and mostly-dry from today through Friday. You'll notice a nice dip in temperature and humidity over the next 48 hours, before a southerly breeze tugs the mercury (and dreaded dew point) back up to more summerlike levels by the end of the week.
Congratulations: you are the proud recipient of improving weather today, and a weather winning streak of sunny, beautiful days from Monday through at least Friday. We'll try to pin down the all-important holiday weekend outlook - it's still too early to get specific. Count on a few stray T-storms and be pleasantly surprised if they fail to materialize. Right now I do NOT see steady rains or cold temperatures - I think it will be classic summertime weather, partly sunny, partly thundery, most of the time dry (and sticky). Cue the lake, the beach, the pool. No worries!
Star Tribune Print Weather Column
Basement dwellers
"Paul here, can't come to the phone. I'm in my basement, under the stairs, watching TV, snacking, too scared to come out. Leave a message. I'll get back to you in October." What a June, the tornado count over 30 and rising (rapidly). Most TV meteorologists were traumatized (as kids) by wild weather: a tornado, flood, hurricane, something that left a lasting mark. Many severe storm survivors
display symptoms similar to post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) victims: anxiety, anger, pacing, elevated heart rate, sweaty palms - an inability to sleep (or concentrate) when storms are imminent.
Storm phobias are real, but treatable with therapy. The truth: if you have a basement or sturdy (interior) room you're relatively safe. Why the sudden spike in tornadoes? The front, the atmospheric tug-of-war separating steamy, tropical air to our south from comfortable Canadian air has stalled overhead; storm ripples aloft inflaming this battle-zone, setting off repeated rounds of spinning T-storms able to focus wind shear into violent updrafts. A wet start today gives way to PM clearing, 5 dry, comfortable days/row next week! Sticky, thundery weather returns next weekend, highs: 80s.
Hurricane Alex. The first hurricane of the season came ashore well south of Brownsville, Texas around 11 pm (central) time last night, with sustained winds close to 100 mph, a category 2 storm. One model brings the tropical remains of Alex all the way into Phoenix by Tuesday of next week. That seems unlikely, but the precise track of this (rapidly weakening) storm remains a mystery. Graphics courtesy of Ham Weather.
Wednesday Magic. What a day - bright sun across most of the state, the temperature in Hibbing rose nearly 40 degrees, from a morning low of 35. International Falls woke up to 36 F, one degree away from an all-time record. Highs ranged from a brisk 62 at Grand Marais to a balmy 82 at Redwood Falls.
Flood Warnings. As much as 2-5" of rain fell in the Minnesota River Valley last Saturday, nearly a month's worth of rain in less than 8 hours. The Cottonwood and Minnesota Rivers are both expected to crest above flood stage - all the details from the NWS are here.
Partly-Soggy Sunday. No panic - it won't rain all day (I pray) but a few hours of showers and storms are expected Sunday as a cooler, drier front pushes in from the Dakotas. In the metro area the best chance of T-storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Plan on more clouds, high humidity levels, winds easing up a bit, shifting to the southwest, then more westerly by late in the day.
July Climate Data. Curious about averages and record for July? No? Just killing time. Click here for your very own (free) climate calendar for July. You'll be the envy of the neighborhood.
Blown Away. Do you enjoy watching reporters almost become airborne during hurricane live shots? If so you'll enjoy this delightful collage of "stand-ups". Nobody did it better than Dan Rather, who got his big break covering a hurricane moving into Houston. Click here to waste a few more valuable minutes, video courtesy of the Mother Nature Network. I didn't even know there WAS a Mother Nature Network.
