* Ice coming off lakes 1-2 weeks early (southern MN) but as much as 2-3 weeks early across parts of northern Minnesota.
* 70s possible by Wednesday and Thursday, outside chance of 80 somewhere in southern Minnesota by Thursday afternoon, more like early May!
* On track for the first March with no accumulating snow since 1878.
* March snowfall so far: Dallas: 1.3", Atlanta: 1.1", Buffalo, New York: Trace. Duluth, MN: Trace.
* Saturday rainfall: trace. March rainfall: .69" (.89" less than average, to date).
* Stormier, wetter pattern likely from Saturday into much of next week, from roughly April 3-10. Expect rapid greening of Minnesota vegetation by mid April.

I'm reminded of the old adage, "when in a drought, don't predict rain." We're going on 16 days without significant rain in the area, the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities are still in a moderate drought. The risk of brush fires is significant, and will get worse as the week goes on, with bright sun, stiff winds, low humidity - no rain in the outlook until Friday night at the earliest. Be careful with discarded matches and cigarette butts - I expect a rash of fires later this week. Until we green up (2 weeks away or less?) the risk of fire will be ever-present. Seems odd to be talking drought and fire with many rivers still lapping out of their banks. Welcome to Minnesota, one great big weather-contradiction.

A northerly breeze pumps drier air into the state today, the sun should be visible much of today, in fact most of this week. Winds at nearly every level of the atmosphere will be howling from the southwest, pumping unusually warm air into Minnesota by midweek. 70s are likely by midweek, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the first 80 (!) of the spring season somewhere in southern Minnesota by Thursday. Amazing, considering we could easily be ankle-deep in slush right about now. April brings an average of 3-4" of snow, but I don't see any wintry relapses anytime soon; we're still somewhat inoculated by a nagging El Nino pattern, one that favors cool, stormy weather across the south and east, but unusually dry, mild weather for the northern tier states.

I don't see any rain until Friday night (when showers and thunderstorms, some potentially heavy/strong) push in from the Dakotas. It's early, but the long-range models hint at a rapid clearing trend Saturday (showery rains linger over far western/northern MN) with next Sunday being the sunnier, drier, nicer day of the weekend. I see frequent rains early next week - a stormier, wetter pattern is a little more than a week away. We have some serious catching up to do in the rainfall department.



Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Today: Partly sunny, breezy - dry. Winds: N/NW 8-13. High: 52
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low: 36
Monday: Lot's of sun, very pleasant. High: near 60
Tuesday: Bright sun, more like early May! High: 68
Wednesday: Sunny, hard to focus (on anything indoors). High: 74
Thursday: Warm sunshine, breezy - significant risk of brush fires. High: 76
Friday: Breezy with increasing clouds. Showers and T-storms possible Friday night. High: near 70
Saturday: Showers taper, rapid clearing, breezy. High: 62
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