81 F. high in the Twin Cities Friday.
82 F. average high on June 27.
87 F. high on June 27, 2013.
June 27, 1876: The latest ice breakup in Duluth.
.90" rain predicted for the MSP metro by Monday afternoon (00z NAM).
Adding Insult to Injury
Only in Minnesota can one be knee-deep in muddy water with dust blowing in your face.
The
weather changes in a hurry around here. But lately systems have been
limping along, even stalling for days on end, magnifying rainfall
amounts.
Some of the water management engineers at Prinsco in
Willmar have noticed the changes. "Is this a fluke or a trend? How do we
plan from year to year?" they asked me after a recent presentation
showing the trends. Build resilience into your systems I told them.
We've been poking the climate with a long, sharp, carbon-tipped stick,
then acting surprised when the weather bites back. Expect more
volatility.
How I long for average.
A new front runs out of
gas overhead this weekend, sparking rounds of T-storms, some capable of 1
to 3 inch rains. I'll be surprised if we don't break the all-time June
rain record, set in 1874.
Sunday still looks like the sunnier,
warmer day, but highs surging into the 80s may spark a more severe
squall line, capable of hail, damaging winds, even a few tornadoes. Stay
alert out there, especially late tomorrow.
A welcome midweek cool
front gives way to 80s by the 4th of July. Another rowdy gang of
T-storms pops next weekend as highs top 90F.
Surprised? Me neither.
On Track For A Record Statewide June Rainfall Record?
We don't have far to go to see a statewide rainfall record fall by the
wayside; a very good chance 2014 will eclipse 1914 as the wettest June
in recorded history. Here's an excerpt from Dr. Mark Seeley's weekly
WeatherTalk Newsletter: "...
Though
June temperatures around the state were near normal, rainfall was far
from it, in fact record-setting for many communities. On a statewide
basis the average rainfall for June so far has been about 7.29 inches,
just behind the all-time wettest June of 1914 when the statewide average
was 7.32 inches, a record likely to be broken by next Monday. Flooding
has been widespread on many Minnesota watersheds as a result of the
heavy rains..."
Weekend Severe Threat.
Much of Minnesota is in a "slight" severe risk area today, again
tomorrow. Although winds aloft are relatively light (one reason why
weather systems are moving so slowly, squeezing out so much heavy rain),
but there may be enough instability for small hail and gusty winds
today. The severe threat increases tomorrow as a short-wave approaches
and wind shear intensifies. If the sun is out midday and afternoon and
highs reach the mid to upper 80s a squall line of severe storms may form
over central and southern Minnesota, capable of larger hail, damaging
straight-line winds, even a few tornadoes. I wouldn't be surprised to
see NOAA SPC upgrade Sunday's risk to "moderate" over southern Minnesota
and Iowa. Stay alert, especially tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The Same Weather Map.
I feel like these days have been cloned, recycled - it's basically the
same pattern, day after day, week after week, as a family of fizzling
fronts spark rounds of heavy T-storms over the central Plains and
Midwest. The heaviest 2-4" amounts are likely over southern Iowa and
northern Missouri, closer to .75" to 2" for most of Minnesota, most of
that coming today and Sunday.
A Thundery Dance.
The drought continues to deepen over California (where locals will
begin praying for a strong El Nino any day now), but more heavy T-storms
spin up from the Plains into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and
Southeast, reaching New England by Monday. 84 hour NAM Future Radar
courtesy of NOAA and HAMweather.
Unusually Big Swings for late June - early July.
Sunday looks like the warmer, sunnier day of the weekend, friends,
neighbors and complete strangers whining about dew points in the upper
60s. Next weekend may be even more uncomfortable if long-range guidance
is to be believed, with dew points possibly rising into the low and mid
70s with highs topping 90F. In-between a big break as Canadian air
pushes south, dropping dew points into the 40s by late Tuesday into
Thursday morning, more like September. The 4th of July? 80s, sticky
humidity and a few T-storms, especially northern Minnesota. Graph:
Weatherspark.
Historic Data: Warmest Day of the Year? Here's an interesting graphic from
NOAA NCDC,
showing the statistical (mean) date of the warmest day of the year,
ranging from August 3 in North Dakota and the Red River Valley to July
18 at St. Cloud, July 8 in the Twin Cities and much of southern
Minnesota to August 13 at Houston and late August along the California
coast.
U.S. Tornado Warning System Far Surpasses Canada's.
CBC News in Saskatchewan has the article; here's the introduction: "
Environment
Canada’s severe weather warning system is lagging far behind the
American system in several ways, potentially putting lives at risk.
That’s the conclusion of Saskatchewan storm chaser Greg Johnson, who has
tracked tornadoes on both sides of the border for a decade. Johnson
says that Environment Canada has “a communication problem where they
don’t just readily share the information, it’s not available quickly.”
“They don’t have a really good mechanism for getting that information
that they do have out to the public.” Johnson said that compared with
the United States, it’s as though Canada has no warning system at all..."
Photo credit above: "
A roof was torn off a home on the Kawacatoose First Nation in Saskatchewan after a tornado struck in 2010." (CBC)
School Buys Tornado Helmets. This story from AP and
krmg.com
made me do a double-take, but it makes perfect sense: a relatively
low-cost, high-impact way to cut down on blunt force head trauma. Most
tornado-related injury and death is related to flying debris; wearing a
helmet, any helmet, can help to lower the risk. This school district is
the third in Oklahoma to invest in helmets. Here's an excerpt: "
The
Duncan Board of Education has approved the purchase of 4,500 skateboard
helmets for students and employees to wear in case of a tornado. The
board spent $34,650 on the helmets with funds raised by the Cover Our
Kids campaign in Duncan. The campaign was created in response to the May
2013 tornado in Moore, which killed seven schoolchildren..."
4 Maps Uncover Summer Tornado Hotspots. Colorado in June. Who knew? Here's an excerpt from the Washington Post's
Capital Weather Gang: "...
June
is the most active of the summer months for tornadoes (intensity and
frequency) and - more than the other summer months – geographically
concentrated in the Plains, as shown in these cartograms of total
tornado count by county by month. The counties are distorted based on
their total tornado count in each month relative to a national average.
Solid red counties have 25 or more tornadoes in the month shown..."
Map credit: Jordan Tessler.
Rumble in the Jungle: Does High Humidity Trigger More Hamstring Injuries? Here's an excerpt of an interesting story at
USA Today: "...
Hamstring
injuries occur when the quadriceps muscle that contracts to move the
leg forward overpowers the hamstring. Athletes playing in
higher-than-normal heat and humidity could be at greater risk to injury
because those conditions cause greater fatigue, Casa said. “I believe
that most of the 32 teams underutilize science to prevent injury and
maximize performance when it comes to maximizing intense exercise in the
heat,” he said..."
Photo credit above: "
United
States' DaMarcus Beasley is taken off the field with an injury during
the group G World Cup soccer match between the United States and
Portugal at the Arena da Amazonia in Manaus, Brazil, Sunday, June 22,
2014." (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez).
World Cup Weather: Does High Humidity Trigger More Injuries?
There's growing scientific evidence that high humidity can cause even
more problems with sports-related injuries than extremely hot
temperatures. That's the subject of today's
Climate Matters: "
In
8 days of the World Cup, 9 players have gone down with a muscle or
hamstring injury. What's going on? It might be the humidity leading to
the spike in non-biting related injuries. WeatherNationTV Chief
Meteorologist Paul Douglas goes over the correlation between high
humidity and muscle and hamstring injuries."
The Fermi Paradox. If there are aliens lurking out there, why haven't we heard from them yet? Here's a clip from a thought-provoking article at
Wait But Why: "...
SETI
(Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is an organization dedicated
to listening for signals from other intelligent life. If we’re right
that there are 100,000 or more intelligent civilizations in our galaxy,
and even a fraction of them are sending out radio waves or laser beams
or other modes of attempting to contact others, shouldn’t SETI’s satellite array pick up all kinds of signals? But it hasn’t. Not one. Ever. Where is everybody?..."
Google Launches Android Wear, Hoping For A Wearable Revolution. Just tell me when I can install the implants directly into my brain ok? Here's a clip from
Gizmag: "...
Android Wear is the company's software platform for linking smartwatches from companies including LG, Samsung and Motorola to Android phones and tablets. A preview of Wear was introduced
this spring, but today Google provided more details on how it will work
and made it clear that the company is investing heavily in the notion
that wearables are the future, even as early smartwatches
have failed to impress most consumers. Android Wear takes much of the
functionality of Google Now and makes an attached smartwatch the home
for receiving notifications and context-based information and
suggestions that currently live within Now on Android devices..."
The Perils Of Sitting.
Wait, I lettered in sitting in high school; I was really, really good
at it. I'm still gifted. But I should get off my butt a little bit more
often after reading this article at
Quartz; here's a clip: "...
It’s been linked to cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. In
this latest meta-analysis, Daniela Schmid and Michael F. Leitzmann of
the University of Regensburg in Germany analyzed 43 observational
studies, amounting to more than 4 million people’s answers to questions
about their sitting behavior and cancer incidences. The researchers
examined close to 70,000 cancer cases and found that sitting is
associated with a 24% increased risk of colon cancer, a 32% increased
risk of endometrial cancer, and a 21% increased risk of lung cancer..."
New York Is The Most Welcoming City In The World, And Paris Is The Least. Here's a clip from an interesting story at
Huffington Post: "...
In a recent survey, money-saving site Coupon Codes Pro
asked thousands of "global travelers" which cities they've found the
most -- and least -- welcoming on their travels. The site provided
globetrotters with a list of world cities and asked them to pick the
"most welcoming" ones, as well as call out any places that had been
particularly "unwelcoming" to them in the past (a highly scientific
process, no?)..."
Keep Your Shoes On: The Future of Airport Security. Here's a snippet from
Conde Nast Traveler and Huffington Post: "
With
five billion travelers expected to take to the skies within the next 12
years--an increase of about 50 percent over current
numbers--international airlines are understandably nervous that the
current security strip-tease could bring air travel to a halt. (Or, at
least, a very slow slog.) Imagine, then, if you could always keep your
shoes on and your toiletries stowed, and simply breeze through a
corridor, wheelie in tow, while hidden sensors scan you and your
belongings pre-boarding..."
TODAY: Unsettled, and humid. Showers and T-storms, windy. Winds: S 15-30. High: 82
SATURDAY NIGHT: More T-storms, locally heavy rain. Low; 70
SUNDAY: Some sun, severe T-storm risk late. High: 88
SUNDAY NIGHT: Strong to severe T-storms, especially evening hours. Low: 62
MONDAY: Lingering T-shower, then partial clearing and less humid. High: 84
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, cooler breeze. Dew point: 56. Wake-up: 62. High: 75
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, comfortable. Dew point: 45. Wake-up: 55. High: 74
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, still pleasant. Wake-up: 56. High: 79
4th of July: Warmer, stickier. T-storms up north. Wake-up: 64. High: 85
Climate Stories...
Calling Out The Delayers. It's
getting harder for rational, data-driven people to deny the reality of
climate change, so they're moving on to a different tactic: let's delay
action until we know more, or have better technology, or other countries
step up first, etc. etc. Here's a clip of an Op-Ed at
MetroWest Daily News in Framingham, MA: "
...Delayers"
often profess agreement with the scientific consensus and support for
climate action, at least in theory. Voices like Bjorn Lomborg, Roger
Pielke Jr. and others at the Breakthrough Institute have pioneered this
tactic, which establishes credibility and grants entrance into a
mainstream media increasingly closed to the denial of basic science. But
after token acknowledgement of the problem, a litany of excuses for
inaction begins, often on economic grounds..."
What Are They Teaching Your Kids About Global Warming? The National Journal
takes a look at the fine line many high school science teachers are
being forced to walk when discussing the science of climate change;
here's a clip: "...
All this puts science teachers in an awkward
position: Scientists insist that teaching the controversy—and not the
consensus—is a dereliction of duty and a propagation of falsehood. But a
powerful conservative coalition opposes any effort to standardize a
consensus curriculum, and they've had success in blocking such a
standard from taking effect. The end result: a patchwork of climate
instruction guidelines that largely leaves teachers to their own
devices, facilitating massive disparities in global-warming education
from school to school and state to state. "There's a lot of variability
in how this is taught right now," said Minda Berbeco, the National
Center for Science Education's programs and policy director. "What's
really troubling is a lot of students are not receiving accurate
scientific information..."
Rising Temperatures Drive People To Relocate. Here's a snippet of an interesting article at
Scientific American: "...
A
new study published this week in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences follows more than 7,000 households in Indonesia over
15 years to conclude that sudden disasters in fact have a much smaller
impact on provincial migration than heat stress. Rainfall, it finds,
also affects decisions to move, but far less so than rising
temperatures. "We can now say something intelligent about the conditions
under which people move," said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of
geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University and a
co-author of the study..."
These Maps Show How Many Brutally Hot Days You Will Suffer When You're Old.
But what if you're already old? Make sure the retirement home has a
good cooling system, preferably powered by renewables, just in case the
grid goes down. Here's an excerpt from
Climate Desk: "...
If
you’re aged 4-33 right now, the map above shows you how many very hot
days—those with temperatures over 95 degrees Fahrenheit—you’re likely to
experience by the time you’re elderly. It comes from a new report
by the economics research firm Rhodium Group, which was commissioned by
former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg; Henry Paulson, the Republican
Treasury Secretary under George W. Bush; and Tom Steyer, the billionaire
Bay Area entrepreneur and environmentalist. The report’s primary focus
is the economic impact climate change will have on the US, and the
dollar figures are just as extreme as the temperature data: up to $507
billion worth of property below sea level by 2100, and up to $108
billion per year in property damage from hurricanes..." (Image credit: Risky Business).
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