85 F. high in the Twin Cities Sunday.
83 F. average high on June 29.
77 F. high on June 29, 2013.
.01" rain fell at MSP International yesterday.
11.36" rain so far this month in the Twin Cities.
4.11" normal June rainfall as of June 29.
June 29 in Minnesota Weather History. Source: Twin Cities NWS:
1982: Frost hits St. Louis County. Kulger Township falls to 27 degrees and Meadowlands bottoms out at 32.
1871:
Large hail fell in Meeker County. Some of the stones were 6 inches in
circumference. Many windows were broken on the north sides of houses.
1863:
Note written on 1863 meteorological form at Ft. Ripley: Drought is very
severe. The grass upon the prairie is nearly or quite dried up. The
Mississippi River at this point is lower than was ever known before. The
amount of moisture which fell during the last 6 months ending June 30,
1863 was 4.27 inches.
Lilapsophobia
After
nearly getting electrocuted a dozen times I installed lightning rods on
our last home. I'm pretty sure I'm an astraphobiac, with a healthy
respect/fear of lightning.
People who fear that storms will become
severe, including tornadoes and hurricanes, suffer from lilapsophobia.
If you constantly check the forecast (or Doppler radar) and have an urge
to hide when storm clouds build - you may be a closet lilapsophobiac.
TV,
radio and social media often exaggerate the threat, making it seem like
deadly weather is lurking around every corner. "Media coverage can
easily lead to a skewed belief that serious storms are much more common
than they actually are" reports
about.com. It's a fine line between respecting the weather and irrational fear.
An
unusually strong storm over Canada pushes cooler air into Minnesota by
midweek. A chilly whirlpool of air aloft sparks a few storms over
southern Minnesota today, showery rains Tuesday and rare early July
sweatshirt weather up north by Wednesday. Expect a comfortable 4th of
July; highs warming into the 80s next weekend.
Ping your favorite lilapsophobiac on the East Coast. "Arthur" is about to spin up; details on my weather blog below.
Second Wettest June on Record.
There's still a slight chance we could see enough rain from pop-up
showers or T-showers to break the record, but odds are against it at
this point. As it stands 2014 will most likely wind up as the second
wettest June, the wettest since 1874. Details from the
Twin Cities National Weather Service: "
You
have to go all the way back to 1874 to have experienced a June as wet
as 2014 in the Twin Cities. With the month almost over, 2014 currently
ranks as the 2nd wettest June on record. See the table below for the
top ten wettest Junes of all time. We'd need another 0.32" of
precipitation before the end of June to at least tie 1874."
7-Day Rainfall Projection.
NOAA guidance prints out some 3-5" rainfall amounts over Florida, as
much as 3" from near Des Moines to Kansas City. A plume of moisture from
a possible tropical system skirting the East Coast may drop some 2"+
amounts from near Richmond and D.C. to New York City. I suspect the
Outer Banks of North Carolina will see considerably more than that.
Tropical Twist.
You can see the system spinning up east of Florida over the next 84
hours; with a good chance this disturbance will strengthen into Tropical
Storm Arthur later this week. NOAA NAM guidance shows a pinwheel of
showers pushing into Minnesota and the Upper Midwest Tuesday, skies
drying out Wednesday into the 4th of July. Future Radar animation:
HAMweather.
MSP Meteogram.
An instability shower or T-storm is still possible this afternoon, more
widespread showers Tuesday as an upper air disturbance, a relatively
cold pool aloft, drifts southward over Minnesota, sparking lot's of
clouds and a few hours of rain. Skies begin to dry out Wednesday (when
temperatures may hold in the 60s across much of Minnesota). Thursday
looks pretty spectacular, and right now low dew points linger into much
of Friday, the 4th, with 80s returning next weekend, along with tropical
humidity levels. Graph: Weatherspark.
Alerts Broadcaster Briefing: Issued Sunday afternoon, July 29, 2014.
*
Some of the models we trust with tropical initiation and development
suggest a significant (and growing) potential for a tropical storm
forming off the Carolina coast by late week and next weekend. Although
the track is expected to take any tropical system out to sea, coastal
communities from the Outer Banks to New Jersey, Long Island and coastal
New England may be brushed by rain, strong winds and some level of
coastal flooding and beach erosion from Friday, July 4th to Sunday, July
6th.
Embryo For Tropical Development.
Satellite imagery shows a tropical depression east of Florida, forecast
to drift slowly northward this week, passing over warm Gulf Stream
water with winds aloft light and favorable for intensification by the
latter half of this week. Tropical Cyclone risk from NOAA NHC:
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Friday Evening, 4th of July.
The biggest summer holiday, what can possibly go wrong? Plenty, at
least along the Carolina coast, including the Outer Banks. We've now had
2 days/row of the ECMWF (European) model spinning up a tropical system
east of Florida, with enough warm Gulf Stream water and light winds
aloft for intensification off the Carolina coast by late week. Although
precise intensity levels and tracks are still (very) premature, there's
enough meteorological writing on the wall for us to issue another
briefing for tropical development. Confidence Levels have gone from a 2
(yesterday) to a 4 today, although it's still much too early for
specifics. Staff and facilities from Wilmington, North Carolina to the
Outer Banks, Norfolk and Ocean City, Maryland should consider a
heightened state of alert and readiness. It's not premature to review
company-specific action plans for this system, although right now odds
favor tropical storm-force winds and tides for the Carolinas by Friday
and Saturday of this week. Map source: WSI.
Midday Saturday: System Intensifies.
If the tropical wave impacting Florida does, in fact, strengthen into
"Arthur", the storm may be approaching hurricane status by midday
Saturday, the center of the storm still well offshore based on latest
ECMWF guidance (which did the best job, overally, predicting Sandy's
track in 2012). So we are leaning toward this solution vs. GFS, GEMS and
UKMET models. But even if the brunt of the storm remains offshore
swells generated by any tropical storm or minimal hurricane may enhance
storm tides, especially at high tide from the Delmarva Peninsula and
coastal New Jersey to Long Island and Cape Cod by the weekend. Some
low-level flooding and beach erosion may result, even if the track is a
few hundred miles offshore. Map source: WSI.
Sunday Morning: Veering Into the Atlantic?
Upper level steering winds should turn any tropical storm or hurricane
out to sea by Sunday and Monday, with additional beach erosion and
coastal flooding Sunday for Cape Cod (especially at local astronomical
high tide). A difference of 100 miles in the storm track could make a
big difference in coastal flooding. Right now a Sandy-like scenario is
very small (although not zero), but low-lying communities that often
flood during major Nor-easters and winter blizzards may experience
moderate flooding by the weekend.
Summary: The
long-term threat is tropical in nature, and may not materialize until
the latter half of this week, as model guidance increasingly points to a
possible tropical storm impacting the Carolinas by Friday, the 4th and
Saturday, the 5th of July. The timing is not good, with hundreds of
thousands of additional vacationers heading to the Outer Banks and other
coastal barrier islands, which are most at-risk of storm surge flooding
generated by any tropical storm or minimal hurricane. We'll be watching
this carefully, looking for model continuity and consistency from run
to run (and model to model). But there's enough evidence (today) to plan
for possible East Coast lowland flooding and beach erosion, with the
greatest potential impacts to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. We'll
keep you posted.
Paul Douglas - Senior Meteorologist - Alerts Broadcaster
Weather Officials Reject Claim That Radar Technology Makes Storm Chasers, Spotters Obsolete.
Because as good as Doppler is, there's no way to confirm a storm is
spawning an actual funnel or tornado, or 2.5" diameter hail unless you
have a (trained) spotter or chaser in the vicinity to provide ground
truth and verification. That, and the curvature of the Earth makes it
impossible to know if a rapidly rotating supercell T-storm is actually
spawning severe weather more than 75 miles from the radar site. Here's
an excerpt of a story at
kansas.com: "
Weather
officials in Tornado Alley are offering firm rebuttals to a national
magazine article’s claim that new radar technology makes storm chasers
“obsolete” and storm spotters virtually unnecessary. In a Slate.com
article titled “Why This Former Storm Chaser Now Thinks Stalking
Tornadoes Is Unethical,” meteorologist Eric Holthaus writes..."
Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/2014/06/28/3531124/weather-officials-reject-claim.html#storylink=
Nebraska's Twin Tornadoes Scarred The Earth. Here's a clip from an interesting story via
Capital Weather Gang: "...
The pair of violent tornadoes that ripped through Pilger, Nebraska June 16 did more than loft a house into the air and damage half the town.
The twisters left a mark on the terrain visible 443 miles above the
Earth from space. NASA’s Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and
Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument aboard its Terra satellite
attained the image below (from June 21, 2014) revealing the paths of the
destructive tornado tandem..." (Image credit above: NASA).
TODAY: Some sun, windy, and warm. A stray T-shower can't be ruled out. Winds: SW 20. High: 82
MONDAY NIGHT: Isolated evening shower, then partial clearing and a bit cooler. Low: 60
TUESDAY: Cool and damp with showers likely, especially PM hours. High: near 70
WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun, still cool for early July. Dew point: 52. Wake-up: 52. High: 71
THURSDAY: Brisk start. Spectacularly sunny. Dew point: 47. Wake-up: 49. High: 77
4th of JULY: Partly sunny, breezy and warmer. Still comfortable. Dew point: 51. Wake-up: 49. High: 79
SATURDAY: Warm sun, probably lake-worthy. Wake-up: 59. High: 83
SUNDAY: Sticky sun, isolated storm. DP: 65. Wake-up: 62. High: 86
Climate Stories...
NASA Preps Climate Change Satellite For Launch. Here's a video and story excerpt from
KXAN.com: "...
According
to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CO2 is the most
important driver of global warming. At approximately 400 parts per
million, atmospheric carbon dioxide is now at its highest level in at
least the past 800,000 years. The burning of fossil fuels and other
human activities are currently adding nearly 40 billion tons of carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere each year, producing an unprecedented buildup.
NASA is about to launch a spacecraft to keep track of this greenhouse
gas. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 is in final preparations for a
July 1st launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California..."
As Global Warming Melts the Arctic, Who Will Built Canada's $50 Billion New Navy? Here's a clip from an interesting story from
The Motley Fool, focusing on a military response to melting polar ice from our neighbor to the north: "...
Down
here south of the border, we don't ordinarily think of the Canucks as a
particularly militaristic nation. But $48 billion is a sizable chunk of
change to spend on defense, even from the perspective of the U.S. defense market.
As such, Canada's plan to build 28 warships, and 116 smaller seagoing
vessels, over the next 20 years is raising some eyebrows in America..."
Photo credit above: "
Canada's
Iroquois-class destroyers help to keep the Arctic sea lanes safe -- but
with only three of them in the fleet, they're getting a bit stretched." Photo:
Wikimedia Commons.
Climate Change Goes Underwater.
In addition to compressional warming causing sea levels to rise,
wordwide, much of the extra carbon is going into the water, making
oceans more acidic. Here's an excerpt from
Bloomberg View: "...
Here's
the problem in a seashell: As the oceans absorb about a quarter of the
carbon dioxide released by fossil-fuel burning, the pH level in the
underwater world is falling, creating the marine version of climate
change. Ocean acidification is rising at its fastest pace
in 300 million years, according to scientists. The most obvious effects
have been on oysters, clams, coral and other sea-dwelling creatures
with hard parts, because more acidic water contains less of the calcium
carbonate essential for shell- and skeleton-building. But there are also
implications for the land-based creatures known as humans..."
KSTP Denies Report Stanley Hubbard Is Sponsoring Climate Change Denial Conference.
City Pages has the story - here's an excerpt: "
In a report,
Media Matters dings Stanley Hubbard for "co-sponsoring a Heartland
Institute conference promoting climate denial" and alleges Hubbard's
skepticism has "seeped into [his] stations' reporting." Hubbard's
flagship station, of course, is KSTP. But KSTP News Director Lindsay
Radford tells us Media Matters has it wrong about the upcoming
conference and overstates Hubbard's influence on her newsroom..."
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