77 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.
80 F. average high on August 23.
88 F. high on August 23, 2013.
Trace of drizzle yesterday at MSP International Airport.
August 23 in Minnesota Weather History:
2006:
Tornadoes and large hail strike southern Minnesota. One person died and
37 were injured when a strong tornado began 4 miles west-southwest of
Nicollet in Nicollet County and move almost due east for 33 miles to
near Waterville in Le Sueur County. Many storm chasers captured the
tornado on video. The largest hail reported was grapefruit-sized at New
Prague in Scott County.
1934: Early arctic blast across Minnesota. Rochester and Fairmont have lows of 34 degrees.
Fair Factoids
As
bad as you think it is, it can always be worse. You think today will be
hot? Not even close to what visitors to the Minnesota State Fair
endured on September 10, 1931, when the mercury hit a blistering 104F.
2013 was the third hottest fair on record; 6 days above 90F. A few
T-storms sprout later today, but it won't rain nearly as hard as it did
in 1977, when 9.5 inches soaked the fair.
According to the Minnesota DNR there have been chilly spells too. On September 13, 1890 the mercury dipped to a brisk 33F.
Big extremes, which makes sense. The State Fair captures the essence of Minnesota, including it's head-shaking weather.
Avoid
dressing in layers today: highs surge into the low 90s - the heat index
later today may approach 100F. Strong storms mushroom by the dinner
hour, marking the leading edge of cool, Canadian relief. But this fresh
front stalls just to our south, sparking waves of showers Tuesday into
Thursday. Highs may hold in the 60s and low 70s by midweek.
No worries. 80s return by next Sunday - a warmer than average September is expected.Summer came late, so will autumn.
And today a hot, vinyl car seat warning and small cooler advisory remains in effect.
Minnesota State Fair Weather.
I thought this was an interesting overview of not only weather at the
fair, but reasons why the Minnesota State Fair has been canceled in
years gone by. Good reasons. Here's an excerpt from the
Minnesota DNR: "...
The
Minnesota State Fair has been held at its current site since 1885.
There were some years when the fair was not held because of war, disease
or logistical reasons. These years are: 1861 (Civil War) 1862 (Civil
and Indian War) 1893 (Columbian Exposition) 1945 (fuel shortage because
of WWII) and the last time the fair was not held was in 1946 due to an
outbreak of Polio. Beginning in 1975, the fair has a 12 day run each
year ending with Labor Day. Thus since 1975, the fair begins on a
Thursday in August. Before 1975 the fair was held for shorter durations
(eleven days from 1972 to 1974, ten days from 1939 to 1971, eight days
from 1919 to 1938 and six days from 1885 to 1918)..."
Photo credit above: "
A Minnesota State Fair Scene around 1900." Courtesy: Minnesota Historical Society.
Grounded.
My wife is a Navy Blue Angels groupie (with a son who flies helicopters
in the Navy I could see this coming). So yesterday we schlepped up to
Duluth, enjoying the free MnDOT road repair entertainment (one guy with a
shovel - creating a 5 mile back-up on I-35). Thank you! We got to
Duluth late for the Air Show, only to discover fog, mist, drizzle and a
cloud deck 400 feet above the airport. To fly safely a 1,000 foot cloud
ceiling was required, and that just didn't happen. We snapped a few
photos, checked out the planes and exhibits, geeked out on Cirrus's
upcoming new personal jet aircraft (
Vision SF50),
and had a lovely steak sandwich. Note to self: as much as I love
Duluth, it's proximity next to a vast, chilled, fog-generating lake
makes it a less than ideal venue for an air show. Just saying.
Hurricane Cristobal?
Models are fairly consistent now spinning up a depression over the
Caribbean into a tropical storm over the Bahamas, reaching Category 1
hurricane strength off the North Carolina coast late Wednesday and
Thursday. Right now models (including the ECMWF/European above) keep the
center of the storm out to sea; no landfall predicted - but serious rip
currents and some beach erosion can't be ruled out, especially
Charleston and Wilmington to the Outer Banks. Forecast valid midday
Thursday: WSI.
4 PM Today.
Stratus clouds have been very persistent in recent days, the sun not
high enough in the sky any longer to burn away the fog and low cloud
cover, keeping temperatures 5-15F cooler than they would be otherwise. I
expect a stiff south wind and T-storms sweeping across central and
northern Minnesota to increase the potential for sunshine today, luring
the mercury near or even above 90 from the Twin Cities on south by late
afternoon. 4 KM NAM model guidance above: NOAA and HAMweather.
Will Storms Skip Over MSP?
Future radar and derived accumulated rainfall tallies show heavy storms
pushing across western and central Minnesota early today, another,
second squall line developing this evening south and east of the Twin
Cities. I wouldn't bet the farm on this actually verifying. Stay tuned.
60-hour accumulated rainfall amounts: NOAA and HAMweather.
European Guidance.
After sweating it out today models continue to show an influx of
Canadian air much of this week, highs in the 70s and lows dipping into
the 50s by midweek. Right now Thursday looks like the coolest, wettest
day of the week; heaviest rains staying over far southern Minnesota and
Iowa Tuesday into Thursday. Temperatures mellow into the 80s again next
weekend, models hinting at mid-80s and sunshine on Labor Day. Feeling
lucky? Me neither. MSP Meteogram: Weatherspark.
Iceland Volcano Experts: No Eruption Yet.
As they say, the "situation is fluid". As in magma-fluid, and at some
point that lava may reach the surface, like an enormous, angry pimple.
The impact to trans-Atlantic flights is still unclear, but if history is
a guide there could be serious implications in the coming weeks. Here's
an excerpt of an update from a good source of local information,
RUV: "...
The
most likely scenario is that an eruption has not begun. This morning we
saw a large increase in seismic activity and tremors, so it was
perfectly rational to assume that an eruption had begun. A subglacial
eruption melts the ice and causes floods. We surveyed the glacier for
three hours today. I can of course not assert that nothing has happened,
but it is clear that there are no signs of abnormal melting or other
signs that normally appear during a subglacial eruption..."
* The Icelandic Civil Protection Agency has continuous updates in a live-blogging format
here.
Spotty, Fickle Rains So Far in August.
Dr. Mark Seeley has another good weather and climate-related time
capsule and summary, proving perspective to our ongoing pattern. Here's
an excerpt of this week's edition of
WeatherTalk: "...
As
opposed to the widespread wetter than normal pattern that prevailed
across the state during the first half of summer, August rainfall has
been very spotty. The US Drought Monitor expanded the geographic
designation for an abnormally dry landscape in Minnesota. Last week the
designated area was Freeborn and Faribault Counties and this week the
Drought Monitor designation for abnormally dry includes portions of
Winona, Fillmore, Mower, Blue Earth, Waseca, and Le Sueur Counties.
Heavier than normal rainfall for much of Minnesota is in the outlook for
the remainder of August, so most areas should see some significant
rainfall amounts before the end of the month..."
Image credit above: International Space Station, NASA.
Hurricane Season Peaks, Guard Against Complacency.
Hurricane season actually peaks September 10, the day hurricanes are
most likely to strike the USA. Here's an interesting nugget about
tornado formation and fatalities triggered by tropical cyclones,
courtesy of
The Marine Corp Logistic Base in Albany, Georgia: "...
Another
hazard associated with tropical cyclones is straight-line winds and
tornadoes. According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ivan in
2004 produced 127 tornadoes with 25 touching down in Georgia. Hurricane
Beulah in 1967 spawned 115 tornadoes while Hurricane Frances in 2004
spawned 106 tornadoes. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in
Southeast Louisiana, 280 miles from Georgia, it spawned 20 tornadoes in
the state, which is the highest recorded number in history for the month
of August, according to the National Weather Service. The National
Hurricane Center also reported about 10 percent of the tropical
cyclone-related fatalities are caused by tornadoes..."
Image credit: Hurricane Ivan in 2004, courtesy of NASA.
Meghalaya: The Wettest Place on Earth.
The Atlantic takes us to a place with perpetual monsoons. Somehow locals have found a way to adapt, even thrive. Here's an excerpt: "
Photographer Amos Chapple
returns to our site once once again, bringing amazing images from the
state of Meghalaya, India, reportedly the rainiest spot on Earth. The
village of Mawsynram in Meghalaya receives 467 inches of rain per year.
Laborers who work outdoors often wear full-body umbrellas made from
bamboo and banana leaf. One of the most fascinating and beautiful
features in the region are the "living bridges" spanning rain-soaked
valleys. For centuries, locals have been training the roots of rubber
trees to grow into natural bridges, far outlasting man-made wooden
structures that rot in just a few years..." (Photo:
Wikipedia).
What It Feels Like To Be The Last Generation To Remember Life Before The Internet.
Are you old enough to remember a time before Netscape Mozilla's crude
web browser and AOL "You've Got Mail"? Me too. I miss those simpler days
when people used rotary phones and there was a place where you could
gather to talk to your friends. It was called a "bar". That's why this
story at
Quartz caught my eye; here's a clip: "
Technology has a lot to answer for: killing old businesses, destroying the middle class, Buzzfeed. Technology in the form of the internet is especially villainous, having been accused of everything from making us dumber (paywall) to aiding dictatorships. But Michael Harris, riffing on the observations of Melvin Kranzberg, argues that “technology is neither good nor evil. The most we can say about it is this: It has come...”
Photo credit above: "
Michael Harris, the author of "The End of Absence." Hudson Hayden.
What Does Depression Physically Feel Like? Here's a snippet of a story from
Huffington Post that caught my eye: "
For
people with depression, it can be a truly difficult task to explain
their condition. Because it is a disease that is more commonly
associated with mental symptoms -- not outward, physical ones --those on
the outside are often curious about what depression feels like. And it
certainly feels like something: "In general, the worse the painful
physical symptoms, the more severe the depression," researchers wrote in
an overview of depression and physical symptoms in the Journal of Clinical Psychology. "Symptoms have been found to increase the duration of depressed mood..."
The 25 Most Popular Mobile Apps in America.
No games in the Top 25? I guess that's progress. Or is it? Playing
Tetris is probably safer than updating my Faceplant account; here's an
excerpt from
Quartz: "
In its latest mobile app report,
comScore tracks the 25 most popular apps in the US. This is an
interesting slice of the App Store, as it highlights active usage, not
just one-time downloads or recent popularity..."
Graphic credit: Quartz and comScore.
Russia Wants Bulgaria to Stop Vandalizing Sovient Monuments.
It sounds like a bad joke, until you consider that maybe Russia is
looking for another pretext to interfere in a former Soviet-block
nation. Here's a clip from
The Moscow Times: "
Russia
is demanding that Bulgaria try harder to prevent vandalism of Soviet
monuments, after yet another monument to Soviet troops in Sofia was
spray-painted, ITAR-Tass reported. The Russian Embassy in Bulgaria has
issued a note demanding that its former Soviet-era ally clean up
the monument in Sofia's Lozenets district, identify and punish those
responsible, and take "exhaustive measures" to prevent similar attacks
in the future, the news agency reported Monday..."
Photo credit above:
Ignat Ignev / Wikicommons. "Figures of Soviet soldiers at the base of a Soviet Army monument were previously transformed into superheroes in Sofia, Bulgaria."
TODAY: Sizzling sun, high humidity. T-storms late. Dew point: 71 Winds: S 15. High: 91
SUNDAY NIGHT: More numerous T-storms, some heavy. Low: 63
MONDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Dew point: 53. High: 80
TUESDAY: Cooler with showers likely. Wake-up: 61. High: 69
WEDNESDAY: Instant autumn. More showery rain. Wake-up: 58. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Showers, few T-storms. Wake-up: 60. High: 68
FRIDAY: Damp start, then peeks of sun. Wake-up: 61. High: 73
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, milder. DP: 60. Wake-up: 60. High: 76
Climate Stories...
Climate Change and Implications for National Security. Here's an excerpt of a story at
International Policy Digest: "...
Over
the 250 years carbon fuels have enabled tremendous technological
advances including a population growth from about 800 million then to
7.5 billion today and the consequent demand to extract even more carbon.
This has occurred during a handful of generations, which is hardly
noticeable on our imaginary one-year calendar. The release of this
carbon – however – is changing our climate at such a rapid rate that it
threatens our survival and presence on earth. It defies imagination that
so much damage has been done in such a relatively short time. The
implications of climate change are the single most significant threat to
life on earth and, put simply, we are not doing enough to rectify the
damage..."
Photo credit above: Department of Defense photo.
“If
you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going
to happen…” – General Gordon R. Sullivan, Retired, former U.S. Army
Chief of Staff.
Kansas' Climate Change Debate Settled in Europe.
While Americans debate the science much of Europe is moving forward
with plans to scale back the use of fossil fuels. What's missing here?
Environmentally-minded Americans who care about this issue have yet to
band together and exert political pressure. That will change in the
years ahead (with our kids and grandkids out in front). Here's an
excerpt from
CJOnline.com: "...
One
of the key differences, King said, is the influence of Green parties
within European nations. To get action on climate change, he said,
environmentally-minded Americans must increase their influence in the
political sphere. In Germany, the Greens hold about 10 percent of the
seats in a 631-member parliament made up of five parties. Oliver
Krischer, vice chairman of the German Green Party’s parliamentary group,
said he hasn’t heard members of other parties say they believe
human-caused climate change is a myth. “There might be some colleagues
in the Bundestag that think so,” Krischer said. “You cannot look in
their heads. But there is at least nobody that says climate change is an
invention of some scientists...”
Photo credit above: Andy Marso, The Capital-Journal. "
Jon
Möller, a researcher with the Stockholm city government's climate and
energy division, shows a map that includes the city's Royal Seaport,
which citizens intend to make free of fossil fuels by 2030."
Portraits of Scared Scientists Seek to Drive Home the Critical State of Climate Change. The most frightening thing about climate change is that we continue to ignore it. Here's a clip from a story at
PetaPixel: "
Photographer
Nick Bowers, Art Director Celine Faledam and Copy Writer Rachel Guest
have teamed up to bring attention to the issue of climate change in a
completely novel and frankly terrifying way with their
portrait/interview project Scared Scientists.
The title, in a way, says it all. Rather than bombarding you with
obscure facts and figures or showing you photographs of receding
glaciers, they focus on the scientists themselves..."
Dangerous Climate Change: Myths and Reality.
Predicting the future is tenuous. Are we underestimating or
overestimating the impacts of AGW? One thing is certain: the last time
there was this much carbon, methane and other greenhouse gases floating
overhead humans weren't on the planet. Here's an excerpt of an article
at
Climate Code Red focused on the myth (?) that climate change is "not yet dangerous": "...
From this perspective, tipping points have already been passed, at less than 1°C of warming, for:
- The
loss of the Amundsen Sea West Antarctic glaciers, and 1–4 metres of sea
level rise (Rignot, Mouginot et al., 2014; Joughin, Smith et al.,
2014). Dr Malte Meinshausen, advisor to the German government and one of
the architects of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways,
calls the evidence published this year of "unstoppable" (Rignot, 2014)
deglaciation in West Antarctica "a game changer", and a "tipping point
that none of us thought would pass so quickly", noting now we are
"committed already to a change in coastlines that is unprecedented for
us humans" (Breakthrough, 2014).
- The loss of Arctic
sea-ice in summer (Duarte, Lenton et al., 2012; Maslowski, Kinney et
al., 2012), which will hasten regional warming, the mobilization of
frozen carbon stores, and the deglaciation of Greenland..."
Photo credit above: Jenna Dorsey.
World's Largest Ice Sheets Melting At Fastest Rate Ever Recorded.
Huffington Post
confirms what climate scientists have known for some time: the melting
is happening even faster than most climate models predicted. Here's a
clip from Huffington Post: "...
Using the European Space Agency's
CryoSat 2 satellite, the Alfred Wegener Institute from Germany has found
that western Antarctica and Greenland are losing massive amounts of
ice. "Combined, the two ice sheets are thinning at a rate of 500 cubic
kilometres per year," said glaciologist Dr. Angelika Humbert, one of the
authors of the AWI study, in a press release. "That is the highest speed observed since altimetry satellite records began about 20 years ago..."
Greenland Ice Melt: 2014.
Here's an excerpt of an update on the extent of ice melt in Greenland
(more than 2 standard deviations for much of June and July) from the
National Snow and Ice Data Center: "
Melting
on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet in June and July 2014 has
been well above the 1981 to 2010 average in most areas, but after a fast start in May,
the southern region and the southeastern coast have seen
lower-than-average melt. Mid-summer surface melting did not reach higher
elevations (above 2000 meters) as often as in the reference period 1981
to 2010. Short bursts of extensive melting were related to periods of
high air pressure over the ice sheet favoring sunny conditions, and
promoting increased melting in darker areas of the ice sheet (wet snow,
bare ice, or dirty snow)..."
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