65 F. high in the Twin Cities Sunday.
73 F. average high on September 14.
73 F. high on September 14, 2013.
September 14, 1939: The high for Minneapolis was 98 degrees Fahrenheit.
September 14, 1916: St. Paul's earliest snow ever.
Relatively Safe
The
most boring city in America to be a meteorologist? Probably San Diego,
which has the distinction of having America's best climate. "Forecasting
the marine layer and what time fog will burn off is my biggest daily
challenge" a friend who works in TV out there volunteered. That, and
what SPF sunscreen to apply, I guess.
But according to
CoreLogic,
California is the 4th riskiest state in the USA, behind Florida, Rhode
Island & Louisiana. They factored all natural disasters, including
wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes & earthquakes.
For the
record: Minnesota came in 40 out of 49 states in overall risk. The
safest state? Michigan. I'm feeling better about the cold fronts to
come.
A reinforcing cool front sparks a morning shower or
sprinkle; skies clear this afternoon as winds begin to ease. A dry sky
lingers into Friday, when a warm frontal passage may spark a few
T-showers (and complaints about the dew point).
Expect 70s next weekend with less humidity - I wouldn't be surprised to see 80F warmth Friday, again a few days next week.
Nature
rarely moves in a straight line. Saturday's premature frost was a jolt
to the system, but don't pack away the shorts & t-shirts just yet.
We are # 40!
Out of 49 states analyzed by CoreLogic, so this is actually a positive
development for Minnesota. Note how the risk drops off as you head into
far northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where (large) tornadoes are
relatively rare, at least for now. The map above shows risk from (all)
natural hazards; here's an excerpt from a recent
CoreLogic report: "...
For
every geocoded location across the U.S, the CoreLogic HRS is compiled
using data representing nine natural hazards: flood, wildfire, tornado,
storm surge, earthquake, straight-line wind, hurricane wind, hail and
sinkhole. Locations with higher risk levels are exposed to multiple
hazard risks and will, therefore, receive higher scores when the risk
analysis is aggregated. Subsequently, locations with minimal risk levels
have lower exposure and receive lower scores. Geocoded locations are
generated at the property-address level using latitude and longitude
coordinates and include both residential and commercial properties..."
Cold Rain Southern Minnesota.
The best chance of morning showers comes over the southern suburbs, a
period of heavier, steadier rain closer to Mankato, Rochester and
Winona. Skies should begin to clear by afternoon as a drying northwest
wind kicks in behind this disturbance. 60-hour rainfall prediction: NOAA
and HAMweather.
Mellowing Trend.
This is about as cool as it's going to be over the next 7-10 days.
Temperatures struggle to near 60F today, but 70s are likely from
Wednesday into much of next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see
temperatures near 80F Friday, again a day or two next week. We certainly
haven't seen the last of lukewarm weather. After morning showers the
next chance of rain comes Friday in the form of a few T-showers. MSP
Meteogram: Weatherspark.
Steve Jobs Was A Low-Tech Parent. All-you-can-eat tech is good for you? Maybe not. Moderation is key, according to a surprising story at
The New York Times; here's an excerpt: "...
Since
then, I’ve met a number of technology chief executives and venture
capitalists who say similar things: they strictly limit their children’s
screen time, often banning all gadgets on school nights, and allocating
ascetic time limits on weekends. I was perplexed by this parenting
style. After all, most parents seem to take the opposite approach,
letting their children bathe in the glow of tablets, smartphones and
computers, day and night. Yet these tech C.E.O.’s seem to know something
that the rest of us don’t..."
TODAY: Early showers (southern MN), then slow clearing. Winds: NW 10+ High: 61
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, cooling off. Low: 43
TUESDAY: Plenty of lukewarm sun. Dew point: 43. High: 69
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, balmy. Wake-up: 49. High: 71
THURSDAY: More wind - clouds increase. Wake-up: 51. High: 73
FRIDAY: Sticky, passing T-storm. Dew point: 67. Wake-up: 57. High: 78
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. DP: 56. Wake-up: 63. High: 77
SUNDAY: Sunny & spectacular. Light winds. Wake-up: 57. High: 72
Climate Stories...
In A Warming World We Can't Keep Depending On The Same Few Crops.
Monoculture depends heavily on (fossil fueled) herbicides and
pesticides; leaving agriculture more vulnerable to pests and more
extreme swings in temperature and moisture. Here's an excerpt from
Live Science: "...
The recent IPCC (2014) report
predicts that, without adaptation, temperature increases of above about
1 C from pre-industrial levels will negatively affect yields on the
major crops in both tropical and temperate regions for the rest of the
century. These impacts need to be seen in the context of crop demand,
which is predicted to increase by about 14% per decade until 2050. In a
recent study in Nature,
an international team of scientists found that iron and zinc
concentrations were substantially reduced in wheat, rice, soybean and
pea crops grown under the CO2 levels expected by 2050. In
other words, climate change will reduce both the yield and the
nutritional content of the world’s major crops – leaving many hungry and
malnourished..." (Photo credit: Tim McCabe, USDA).
Russia's Militarization of the North Pole Has U.S. Lawmakers On Edge. With
rapid warming and melting of the polar ice cap we can expect more
jostling over mineral and shipping rights at the top of the world.
Here's an excerpt from
National Journal: "...
A
break in cooperation has not slowed Russia's pursuit of national
interests inside the Arctic Circle, however. Russia already has the
biggest military footprint there of any Arctic nation, and it's beefing
it up at a much faster rate
than the U.S. and Canada. The country's Northern Fleet is getting new
nuclear attack submarines. Restoration of Soviet-era defense
infrastructure is underway. And this week, Russia announced it has begun
building a complex of military bases in the region, The Moscow Times reports, the first new facilities in the area since Soviet posts were abandoned at the end of the Cold War..."
A Climate Movement That Can't Be Ignored.
Huffington Post has the story - here's the introduction: "
The
New York state elections just concluded, and the national midterms are
still weeks away, but there is a campaign office in downtown Manhattan
that has just gone into overdrive. Volunteers there are hard at work on
another deadline: September 21. That's the day of the People's Climate March,
what promises to be the largest demonstration for action on climate
change in world history. The march has brought together over 1,100
organizations at last count, from the New York City Environmental
Justice Alliance to the Georgia Climate Change Coalition. A coalition
that's both staggering in size and diversity..."
Evangelical Christian Tells Bill Moyers Not All Christians are Climate Change Deniers. Here's a video and excerpt from
EcoWatch: "...
Hayhoe is the director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, where she teaches. She’s been attacked by Rush Limbaugh
and gotten floods of hate mail and even threats after a right-wing
blogger publisher her email address. But she says, “Caring about climate
is entirely consistent with who we are as Christians.
We have increasingly begun to confound our politics with our faith. To
the point where instead of our faith dictating our attitudes on
political and social issues, we are instead allowing our political party
to dictate our attitude on issues that are clearly consistent with who
we are...”
Too Much Carbon, Not Enough Time. Here's a clip from an Op-Ed at
The Baltimore Sun: "...
The
latest numbers are a reminder that it's time to stop listening to the
climate change deniers and accept that rising levels of greenhouse gases
are a serious, man-made threat that must be addressed for the sake of
humanity. The cost of delaying action to stem climate change is high —
potentially four percentage points in gross domestic product worldwide
by 2030, according to a UN report issued earlier this year. That's not
alarmist, it's a matter of being prudent. Considering the other positive
effects of embracing renewable energy, conservation and other remedies
from cleaner air and water to new jobs in the "green energy" economy,
the U.S. should be moving farther and faster. According to the WMO,
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are now 142 percent higher than they
were before the Industrial Revolution while methane is up more than 250
percent. There's just so much abuse a planet can take before the
consequences are disastrous and potentially irreversible."
The Good and Bad Climate News from Permafrost Melt. Climate Central has an update; here's the introduction: "
Earth’s subterranean carbon blisters are starting to pop.
Carbon inside now-melting permafrost is oozing out, leaving scientists
scrambling to figure out just how much of it is ending up in the
atmosphere. Whether recent findings from research that attempted to help
answer this question are good or bad climate news might depend on
whether you see an Arctic river basin as half full of mud — or half empty. Frozen soils known as permafrosts can be found across the planet, and they’re concentrated heavily in the Arctic, which has been warming since the 1980s at twice the global rate. Taken together, permafrosts contain more carbon than is already in the atmosphere..."
Photo credit above: "
Coastal permafrost eroding in Alaska." Credit: USGS
Naomi Klein: The Hypocrisy Behind The Big Business Climate Change Battle. Here's an excerpt of a
Guardian book review that resonated: "...
A
great many of us engage in this kind of denial. We look for a split
second and then we look away. Or maybe we do really look, but then we
forget. We engage in this odd form of on-again-off-again ecological
amnesia for perfectly rational reasons. We deny because we fear that
letting in the full reality of this crisis will change everything. And
we are right. If we continue on our current path of allowing emissions
to rise year after year, major cities will drown, ancient cultures will
be swallowed by the seas; our children will spend much of their lives
fleeing and recovering from vicious storms and extreme droughts. Yet we
continue all the same..."
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