60 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.
55 F. average high on October 22.
40 F. high temperature on October 22, 2013.
October 22, 1899: Warm day in the Twin Cities with a high of 82.
5:35 pm today: peak of partial solar eclipse.
But Wait, There's More (Indian Summer)
Yesterday
an acquaintance had the nerve to complain about showers in the
forecast. Really? Rain. Liquid water. At night. On a weekday. You do
realize you could be ankle-deep in slush right now? 1 to 3 inch
snowfalls begin to ramp up in late October; but snow cover doesn't
linger until late November - when the mercury is consistently colder
than 32F.
It's been a miraculously nice couple of weeks, some of the finest fall weather I can ever remember. And it's not over.
Soggy
Leaf Warnings are issued this morning, a rude reminder that a little
rain on freshly fallen leaves can make for a slippery mess. The sun
peeks out later, boosting temperatures into the 60s. 70F is not out of
the question tomorrow before a very slight cool-down Saturday with highs
in the low 60s; still above average for late October.
A mild
start Monday gives way to a reality check next week. Odds favor
jacket-worthy 40s for Trick or Treating next Friday. Which is scarier:
bats, ghouls or the latest political attack ads on TV?
I'm not
sure which is more terrifying but I can see the ad campaign now. "Old
Man Winter Has a Mean Streak! He's Just Not Right for Minnesota."
I respectfully disagree.
Partial Solar Eclipse.
Here's more information on the partial eclipse visible later today,
peaking at 5:35 PM in Minnesota. Odds favor clearing with a pretty good
chance of seeing the eclipse. Remember not to look directly at the sun,
right? Here's more information from the
Twin Cities National Weather Service:
A solar eclipse will be visible across Minnesota and Wisconsin late Thursday afternoon and early evening. Here are the details:
When: Thursday October 23, 2014
Times (CDT):Partial Eclipse Begins: 4:23 PM
Maximum Eclipse: 5:35 PM Sunset: Eau Claire: 6:08 PM
Twin Cities: 6:15 PM
St. Cloud: 6:17 PMAdditional details about this eclipse are available on NASA's website at:
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/OH/OH2014.html#SE2014Oct23P
What is an eclipse?
www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/5-8/features/what-is-an-eclipse-58/#.VEeaVyLF9g0
Good Chance of Seeing Partial Solar Eclipse.
Nothing is ever guaranteed, but the sloppy front responsible for
showers overnight and a damp start to your Thursday morning should push
quickly into Wisconsin, with a clearing trend as the day goes on. 4 km
NAM future radar product: NOAA and HAMweather.
Indian Summer: Round 3?
I'm rapidly losing track of how many mild spells we've had since the
first sub-freezing low at MSP (31F on October 11), but I think this is
the third wave of warmth pushing north. Highs reach the 60s to near 70F
today and tomorrow; I still think there's a good chance of low 60s over
the weekend and Monday before cooling back down to October-like levels
later next week. ECMWF guidance is hinting at mid 40s to around 50F for
Halloween Trick or Treating - probably dry. No blizzards this year.
Nor'easter Soaks Nor'east, Tropical Disturbance for South Florida?
A slow-moving storm churning up the East Coast will circulate copious
amounts of Atlantic moisture into New England, where some 2-4" rainfall
amounts are possible, especially Boston to Portland and Bangor. Winds
top 20-30 mph with a risk of flash flooding over the next 36-48 hours.
Heavy rain spreads across the Pacific Northwest into northern California
while south Florida gets brushed by a tropical system which may put
down some excessive rainfall amounts near Miami.
Flash Flood Potential.
Our internal Alerts Broadcaster models are printing out excessive
rainfall amounts for south Florida over the next 60 hours. I'm not
convinced Miami will see over 10" of rain, but some 4-8" amounts are
possible, capable of significant flash flooding later today into Friday.
Germany Storm Surge Submerges Cars.
A powerful storm surge from the soggy, wind-whipped remains of
Hurricane Gonzalo caused very significant flooding along Germany's
coastline on Wednesday. Here's a link to a video clip from AP and
The Brisbane Times: "
Raw
vision: cars stand partially submerged in water as the remnants of
Hurricane Gonzalo caused a storm surge along parts of Germany's
coastline."
* Losses from Hurricane Gonzalo on Bermuda estimated at
$200-400 million dollars.
Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters: Overview. Here's an excerpt from
NOAA NCDC: "
Found
here are the weather/climate events that have had the greatest economic
impact from 1980 to 2013. The U.S. has sustained 170 weather/climate
disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1
billion (including CPI adjustment to 2013). The total cost of these 170
events exceeds $1 trillion. In 2013, there were 9 weather/climate
disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United
States. These events included a drought event, 2 flooding events, and 6
severe storm events. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 113
people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted..."
1934 Drought In Dust Bowl Days Was Worst in Thousand Years for U.S.: NASA. Here's a clip from a story at NBC News that made me do a double-take: "The
drought of 1934 wasn’t just bad, it was the worst. That’s the finding
of a reconstruction of North American drought history over the past
1,000 years, done by scientists from NASA and Columbia University’s
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Their study, to be published in the
Oct. 17 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, concludes the drought of
1934 during the Dust Bowl years in the North American Plains was 30
percent more severe than the next worst, which occurred in 1580, NASA said. The scientists used tree ring records from 1000 to 2005 along with modern observations..." (Image:
Wikipedia).
Rising Above The Risk: America's First Tsunami Refuge. Yes, it puts our cold fronts into stark perspective. Here's the intro to a press release from
The Geological Society of America: "
Washington’s
coast is so close to the seismically active Cascadia Subduction Zone
that if a megathrust earthquake were to occur, a tsunami would hit the
Washington shoreline in just 25 minutes. One coastal community is
preparing for such a disaster by starting construction on the nation’s
first tsunami evacuation refuge, large enough to shelter more than 1,000
people who are within 20-minute walking distance. The vertical
evacuation-refuge will be the roof of the gym of the new school in Grays
Harbor County, Washington. The Ocosta Elementary School and Tsunami
Safe Haven will be the first of its kind in the nation and will be the
culmination of 18 years of effort, said Tim Walsh, who is a Chief Hazard
Geologist at the Department of Natural Resources and has been working
on this project since The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program was
formed in 1995..."
Floods Don't Wash With This Amphibious, Floating House. Here's an idea that just might work. Let your home ride the rising waves?
Gizmag has details, here's an excerpt: "
Living
in an area prone to flooding has historically meant that you need high
sockets and deep pockets. Baca Architects, however, has come up with an
altogether more ingenious solution. Its "amphibious house," designed to
float on floodwater before being gently placed back down, is nearly
complete..."
Elephants Able To Detect Rainstorms 150 Miles Away. Forget Doppler, I'm buying an elephant. Here's the intro to an explanation at
Popular Science: "
Lions
may be the kings of the animal world, but at least elephants could make
for spunky meteorologists. New research is revealing that elephants
have a radar-like spidey sense, capable of detecting an approaching
rainstorm up to 150 miles off. While this may seem like an impractical
talent, researchers say elephants' weather-predicting could help human
conservationists save the animals from poachers. The elephants’
abilities are rooted in their excellent hearing skills..." (File photo:
Wikipedia).
The Remarkable Story of SpaceX.
How did Elon Musk's company disrupt Boeing and leapfrog NASA to become a
serious space company? Here's an excerpt from a fascinating chronology
at
Quartz: "...
When NASA officials first got involved with SpaceX eight years ago, they thought they were hiring a temp worker for
scut work—a so-called “space taxi” while the government focused on
higher aims. But now the commercial project may be NASA’s best hope
for getting humans into space.
When Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002, it was, at best, a millionaire’s
flight of fancy. He had made his fortune from tech startups Zip2 and
PayPal, and was still two years away from starting Tesla,
the electric-car firm..."
Photo credit: "
Better, faster, cheaper." (SpaceX)
Top 10 Greenest Countries In The World No, the USA isn't in the Top 10, not yet. Here's an excerpt of the story at EcoWatch: "The
60 countries covered are a dramatic increase from the 27 included in
the last report in 2012. It assessed nations on every continent and
found that the Scandinavian countries, along with Germany, were clear
leaders. Sweden and Norway headed up the list of actual performance,
with Costa Rica ranking third, inside the top 15 for the first time, and
Germany and Denmark
rounding out the top five. Poland, Senegal, Qatar, Vietnam and Mongolia
bring up the rear in slots 56-60, with China just above them at 55. The
U.S. came in close to the middle, ranked at 28..."
Most Energy Efficient States in the USA?
Minnesota came in at #10, details from ACEEE, the American Council for
an Energy-Efficient Economy. Here's an excerpt of their report,
hightlighted at
InvestorIdeas.com: "
Governors
and lawmakers in state capitals across the nation continue to take
major steps to lower energy costs, reduce pollution, and save consumers
money by increasing their states' energy efficiency, according to the
findings of the 8th edition of the State Energy Efficiency Scorecard
released today by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
(ACEEE). Available online at http://aceee.org/state-policy/scorecard,
the report found that in 2014 Massachusetts (#1) continues to edge out
California (#2) as the most energy-efficient state in the nation for the
fourth year in a row. Following these states in the top 10 are: Rhode
Island (marking the state's first time in top five), Oregon, and Vermont
(all tied for #3); Connecticut (#6); New York (#7); Washington (#8);
Maryland (#9); and Minnesota (#10)..."
*
Minneapolis: 8th Most Energy Efficient City. ACEEE has the Twin Cities behind Boston (#1), New York City, Washington D.C., Austin and Seattle. The city summary is
here.
There's More To Life Than Being Happy.
Could the pursuit of happiness be making us more unhappy? Is happiness
an accidental byproduct of the pursuit of something....more? Here's a
clip from an article at
The Atlantic that got my attention: "...
At this writing, Gallup
also reports that nearly 60 percent all Americans today feel happy,
without a lot of stress or worry. On the other hand, according to the Center for Disease Control,
about 4 out of 10 Americans have not discovered a satisfying life
purpose. Forty percent either do not think their lives have a clear
sense of purpose or are neutral about whether their lives have purpose.
Nearly a quarter of Americans feel neutral or do not have a strong sense
of what makes their lives meaningful. Research has shown that having
purpose and meaning in life increases overall well-being and life
satisfaction, improves mental and physical health, enhances resiliency,
enhances self-esteem, and decreases the chances of depression..."
"So Badass You Can't Believe It. Magic Leap Raises $542 Million To Launch the Future of Computing. Is there a pony in there, or maybe a baby (virtual) elephant? For a look at what (may) come next check out a story at
Fast Company; here's an excerpt: "...
No
one is willing today to explain exactly what the heck Magic Leap is
making that'll replace all our rectangles, but it sounds like a blending
of what we currently call augmented reality and virtual reality.
In fact, Dr Paul Jacobs, Qualcomm's executive chairman and one of Magic
Leap's new board advisors, along with Google executive Sundar Pichai,
used precisely those two terms in an email to me explaining why he
invested..."
Our Unique "Microbial Aura" Travels With Us Wherever We Go.
Proving we are the sum of our travels, interactions (and germs we've
picked up along the way). Here's an story excerpt that will leave you
washing your hands repeatedly, courtesy of PRI,
Public Radio International: "
Your bacterial
community [is] a composite of all of the decisions and interactions
you’ve ever made in your life. Unless you lived exactly the same life as
me, you would not have the same microbiome. You are, in essence,
microbially unique," explains Jack Gilbert, one of the authors of the new paper and director of the Home Microbiome Study at the Argonne National Laboratory.
If you were to move in to a new home, for example, the collection of
bacteria that live on and around the surfaces of the home would become
so transformed by your personal microbiome that it could be indentified
as belonging to you based on just a sample of its bacteria..."
Image credit above: Argonne National Laboratory. "
An artist's depiction of bacteria covering a person's skin and surroundings (in yellow and green)."
The Worst Places to Seek Refuge During The Zombie Apocalypse. Here's some useful information - happy to see that MSP isn't on this list. Here's a clip from
Huffington Post: "
When
the undead rise up, hitting the beach in zombie-free bliss will not be
an option. Honolulu is ranked as the most appetizing city for hungry
zombies. Residents of Honolulu will make easy targets for the walking
dead, what with the city's high walkability and lack of hardware stores
(where there are potential zombie-killing weapons). Honolulu also has a
high hospital density, making it easy for zombies to find weak victims,
and it is extremely congested, with some of the worst traffic in the nation..."
TODAY: Wet start. Skies brighten with mild PM sun. Partial solar eclipse peaks at 5: 35 pm. Winds: West 5-10. High: 66
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, patchy ground fog. Low: 46
FRIDAY: Indian Summer returns. Perfect weather - warm sun. High: near 70
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, cooler breeze. Wake-up: 49. High: 61
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Clouds increase PM hours. Showers Sunday night. Low: 45. High: 62
MONDAY: Mild, showery rains likely. Wake-up: 51. High: 63
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, light jackets return. Wake-up: 41. High: 55
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, still quiet. Wake-up: 36. High: 51
Climate Stories...
As Planet Warms, Scientists Predict Changes for Autumn Leaf Season. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Think Progress: "...“
Global
climate change will not eliminate fall leaf color, but the best
displays will move northward and upward in elevation in response to
warming. For forests in their present location, fall foliage displays
will occur later in the season and may last longer, but will be of
diminished quality due to less intense red colors,” Neufeld writes. “The
fall foliage displays that our grandchildren will see at the end of
this century will not be the ones we see today.” (Graphic above: Climate Central).
Methane Leaks Wipe Out Any Climate Benefit of Fracking, Satellite Observations Confirm.
Natural gas is cleaner, assuming there are few methane leaks around the
drill heads, which may turn out to be a big assumption. Joe Romm has
the article at
Think Progress; here's the intro: "
Satellite
observations of huge oil and gas basins in East Texas and North Dakota
confirm staggering 9 and 10 percent leakage rates of heat-trapping
methane. “In conclusion,” researchers write,
“at the current methane loss rates, a net climate benefit on all time
frames owing to tapping unconventional resources in the analyzed tight
formations is unlikely.” In short, fracking speeds up human-caused
climate change, thanks to methane leaks alone. Remember, natural gas is mostly methane, (CH4), a super-potent greenhouse gas, which traps 86 times as much heat as CO2 over a 20-year period..."
A Retreat From Weather Disasters.
There is no constitutional right to property insurance or flood
insurance. What happens when enough insurance companies reach the
conclusion that risks are just too high to insure specific communities?
It's already happening, as reported by
The New York Times; here's an excerpt: "...
As
the damages wrought by increasingly disruptive weather patterns have
climbed around the world, the insurance industry seems to have quietly
engaged in what looks a lot like a retreat. A report to be released
Wednesday by Ceres,
the sustainability advocacy group, makes the point forcefully. “Over
the past 30 years annual losses from natural catastrophes have continued
to increase while the insured portion has declined,” it concluded. Last
year, less than a third of the $116 billion in worldwide losses from
weather-related disasters were covered by insurance, according to data
from the reinsurer Swiss Re..."
Climate Records Are Breaking So Often Now, We've Stopped Paying Attention. Chris Mooney has the story at
The Washington Post; here's an excerpt: "...
On Monday, we learned
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that last
September was the hottest of them all, out of 135 Septembers going back
to 1880.The same was true for August 2014. And June of 2014. And May of 2014.
What that means is that for each of these months, the combined average
global land and ocean surface temperature has never been higher, at
least since we started recording these temperatures back in the
presidency of Rutherford B. Hayes..."
East Coast, Gulf Coast Should Get Used to Tidal Floods. Here's a snippet of an Op-Ed at
CNN: "...
Global
sea levels rose approximately 8 inches from 1880 to 2009 as global
warming hastened land-based ice melt, and seawater expanded as it
absorbed heat from a warming atmosphere. Sea level rise worldwide is now
accelerating, and at an especially fast rate along parts of the East
Coast. This reality is captured in a report we co-authored
earlier this month, analyzing how often flooding occurs at 52 sites
along the Eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico and estimating the
frequency and extent of flooding over the next 15 and 30 years. We found
that many East Coast communities now experience dozens of tidal floods
every year. In some places, there has been a fourfold increase in the
number of days per year with tidal flooding since 1970..."
Another Month, Another Global Heat Record Broken. Will
2014 break another record? It's still a little early, but if the warm
weather departures we've been tracking in recent months continue the
answer is probably yes. Here's an excerpt from AP and
Huffington Post: "...
If
2014 breaks the record for hottest year, that also should sound
familiar: 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 all broke NOAA records for the
hottest years since records started being kept in 1880. "This is one of
many indicators that climate change has not stopped and that it
continues to be one of the most important issues facing humanity," said
University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles..."
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