24 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.
43 F. average high on November 13.
50 F. high on November 13, 2013.
3" snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.

November 13 in Minnesota Weather History:
2002: A magnitude 7.9 earthquake in Alaska turned some water in wells black in southeast Minnesota due to magnesium particles that were shaken loose.
1996: An ice storm moved through much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Schools closed or began late over much of southern Minnesota the morning of the 15th due to a 1/2 inch thick layer of ice that covered much of the area. Flights were canceled at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport due to ice forming on airplanes and runways, however mainly sleet was reported in the Twin Cities.
1987: Warm enough to still golf, fish, and windsurf in central and southern Minnesota.
1833: Spectacular meteor show at Ft. Snelling.

No!

"....No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease, no comfortable feel in any member, no shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees, no fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds, November!" wrote Thomas Hood. The entire poem is on the weather blog below. Yes, you'd be hard-pressed to call Tom an optimist - but pragmatic realist? Yep.

My wife just had a middle-aged epiphany: as much as we gripe about the cold the upsides are considerable. "No allergies, my basement doesn't flood from heavy rain, less daily wrestling with weeds and overgrown plants in our jungle-like yard" she reflected.
The daily joys of Hibernation-Mode.

Expect a bug-free blue sky today with low humidity and a refreshing breeze. I'll say it again: having the sun out takes some of cold, dark sting out of this numbing outbreak.

An inch or two of snow Saturday marks the leading edge of an even colder front; highs stuck in the teens Sunday into Tuesday with nighttime lows dipping into negative territory out in the suburbs.

The good news: ECMWF data shows a jolt of Pacific air late next week. I could see a run of 30s, even a few 40s from next weekend into Thanksgiving week. Not exactly Indian Summer, but much more tolerable.

No!
No sun - no moon!
No morn - no noon!
No dawn - no dust - no proper time of day
No sky - no earthly view
No distance looking blue
No road - no street - no "t'other side this way"
No end to any Row
No indications where the Crescents go
No top to any steeple
No recognitions of familiar people
No courtesies for showing 'em
No knowing 'em!
No traveling at all - no locomotion
No inkling of the way - no notion
"No go" by land or ocean
No mail - no post
No news for any foreign coast
No Park, no Ring, no afternoon gentility
No company - no nobility
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
No comfortable feel in any member
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds
November!

* Poem courtesy of Thomas Hood and allpoetry.com.

No!

No sun--no moon!
No morn--no noon!
No dawn--no dusk--no proper time of day--
No sky--no earthly view--
No distance looking blue--
No road--no street--no "t'other side this way"--
No end to any Row--
No indications where the Crescents go--
No top to any steeple--
No recognitions of familiar people--
No courtesies for showing 'em--
No knowing 'em!
No traveling at all--no locomotion--
No inkling of the way--no notion--
"No go" by land or ocean--
No mail--no post--
No news from any foreign coast--
No Park, no Ring, no afternoon gentility--
No company--no nobility--
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
No comfortable feel in any member--
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds--
November!

- See more at: http://allpoetry.com/poem/8472903-No--by-Thomas-Hood#sthash.1Yu05txi.dpuf

No!

- See more at: http://allpoetry.com/poem/8472903-No--by-Thomas-Hood#sthash.1Yu05txi.dpuf

Record-Breaking Ocean Temperatures Wreak Havoc. New Scientist has more details on the unprecedented (in the historical record) warming of the northern Pacific Ocean; here's a clip: "...But when Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu analysed the most recent publicly available monthly data from the UK Met Office, he found that the ocean surfaces are now the hottest they have been since records began. In July this year, ocean surfaces were 0.55 °C above the average since 1890, just beating the previous record of 0.51 °C in 1998. In the North Pacific, the temperatures were about 0.8 °C above average, which is 0.25 °C warmer than the 1998 peak. "It's a remarkable situation and I've never seen warming of the North Pacific like that," Timmermann says..."

Sea Surface Temperature anomaly above obtained using Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA.

Chinese Hack U.S. Weather Systems, Satellite Network. This reads like a Tom Clancy spy thriller, but unfortunately it seems to be true. NOAA did, in fact, get hacked. Here's the intro to a story at The Washington Post: "Hackers from China breached the federal weather network recently, forcing cybersecurity teams to seal off data vital to disaster planning, aviation, shipping and scores of other crucial uses, officials said. The intrusion occurred in late September but officials gave no indication that they had a problem until Oct. 20, according to three people familiar with the hack and the subsequent reaction by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA, which includes the National Weather Service. Even then, NOAA did not say its systems were compromised..."

Role Reversal: Why It's Warm in Alaska But Frigid In Most of the U.S. Right Now. Meteorologist Andrew Freedman has a good explanation of the (extreme) polar amplification we're witnessing in Mashable; here's a clip: "...The weather pattern is leading to a classic episode of what climate scientists have labeled the "warm Arctic, cold continents" pattern, something that has been seen with increasing frequency in recent years. Studies have tied this particular pattern in part to rapid Arctic climate change as a result of manmade global warming, although this is still a subject of debate within the mainstream climate science community..."

Image credit above: "A man walks through Mears Park in downtown St. Paul, Minn., during the first snowstorm of the season on Monday, Nov.10, 2014." Image: Leila Navidi/The Star Tribune/Associated Press.

Beijing's Anti-Pollution Face-Lift in 6 Photos. Here's an amazing before and after shot, courtesy of Huffington Post: "...Factories in the surrounding regions have halted operations, construction projects have ground to a standstill, outdoor barbecue restaurants have been shuttered, Beijing workers have been given a six-day holiday, and half of all private cars are banned from the roads each day, among other restrictions. Massive in scope and scale, the experiment in environmental engineering brought several days of blue skies last week and briefly gave the world a glimpse of what Beijing can be: a gorgeous world-class city steeped in tradition and stunning architecture..."

Photo credit above: Jeffrey Kesler.

72 Things That Are Definitely Better Than Oprah's 72 Favorite Things. Wait, a paper towel dispenser with 4 USB ports for only $49.95? My Christmas wish list is now complete. Buzzfeed has details on the other 71 things that Oprah can't touch.

TODAY: Chilled sunlight. Feels like 5F Winds: West 8. High: 19
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Low: 5
SATURDAY: Light snow developing. 1-3" snow possible. Best chance of icy roads over southern Minnesota. High: 26
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, Windy, few flakes in the air. Wake-up: 6. High: 22
MONDAY: Coldest day in sight. Feels like - 10F. Wake-up: 7. High: 17
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, cold breeze. Wake-up: 5. High: 25
WEDNESDAY: Some sun, not as harsh. Wake-up: 14. High: 29
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, dripping icicles. Wake-up: 18. High: 31

* ECMWF (European) guidance is hinting at 30s, even a shot at 40F next weekend; November 22-23.

Climate Stories...

The Climate Deal That Almost Wasn't. Politico has the story; here's an excerpt: "A day before President Barack Obama departed for Beijing last weekend, the main attraction of his trip still wasn’t ready. Top administration officials had worked secretly for months to nail down a major climate change deal with China that could be the centerpiece of his first visit to the country in five years, and perhaps a key part of his presidential legacy. But even as Air Force One was being primed for its 7,000-mile journey, special White House adviser John Podesta and U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern were still negotiating the deal’s terms with their Chinese counterparts, including the crucial question of what its future emissions targets would be..." (AP photo).

Republicans Vow EPA Fight As Obama Touts China Climate Deal. Reuters has the story - here's the introduction: "Republican congressional leaders on Wednesday wasted no time in criticizing what they called President Barack Obama's "one-sided" climate deal with China, using the announcement to declare war on the administration's plan to use executive actions to combat carbon emissions. In brokering a high-profile pact with China, the Obama administration knew it would preempt one of the most often-cited arguments Republicans have used to argue against mandatory domestic carbon cuts: China will continue to pollute unabated..."

Photo credit above: "U.S. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell holds a news conference on the day after he was re-elected to a sixth term to the U.S. Senate at the University of Louisville in Louisville, Kentucky, November 5, 2014." Credit: Reuters/John Sommers II.

U.S. - China Deal Won't Stop Climate Change. But It's Exactly What We Needed. Here's an excerpt of an Eric Holthaus story at Slate: "...On its own, reaching these targets won’t be enough to stop all or even most of the irreversible effects of global warming, but early indications are they could be enough to at least rule out a worst-case scenario. In fact, climate scientist James Hansen has suggested that a bilateral U.S.-China announcement might be one of the only actions that could quickly bring about the kind of radical action on climate change required to eliminate the possibility of future climate disaster..."

The Upside of the Airpocalypse. The pollution is pretty horrific in Beijing, Shanghai and other major Chinese cities, which may have been at least part of the calculus that went into China's recent commitment to lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduce it's reliance on coal. Here's a snippet from Slate: "...What spurred China to kick its coal habit? There are a number of factors, from cheap natural gas to falling prices for alternative energy sources. In addition to being Earth’s biggest polluter, China invests more in green energy than any country in the world. Under this new agreement, it has pledged that renewables will account for 20 percent of its energy production by 2030. The Chinese government also wants to reduce the country’s reliance on carbon-intensive heavy industry for its future economic growth. But a big factor that can’t be ignored is pollution, particularly the infamous blankets of smog that regularly waft over Chinese cities..."

* A Case for More Nuclear Power To Address Carbon Emissions? The world needs more energy, but tapping remaining fossil fuel reserves comes with a potentially huge long-term cost to this generation and future generations, worldwide. Bloomberg Businessweek has the story.

Science Groups Demand Textbook Publishers Remove Climate Change Denialism. Here's a clip from The Austin Chronicle that left me scratching my head: "...Similarly, a McGraw-Hill world cultures and geography book for 6th graders poses the question, “Is Global Warming a Result of Human Activity?” and places findings from two sources that differ vastly in credibility on par with one another – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global organization that uses peer-reviewed articles from a Nobel Prize-winning body of scientists, and the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank at the forefront of promoting climate change skepticism (formerly working hand-in-hand with Big Tobacco). "Scientists who study the issue say it is impossible to tell if the recent small warming trend is natural [...] or unnatural, the result of human greenhouse gas emissions,” the Heartland-derived text reads..."

New Video: South Florida and Sea Level Rise - A Slow Motion Catastrophe. Here's a link to a video and story excerpt from Peter Sinclair at Climate Denial Crock of the Week: "...I found myself telling people how, our image of sea level rise is most often the towering waves washing thru the city, like in sci-fi movies of the past. In reality, the process will be less like the Deluge and more like water torture – drip by drip, millimeter by millimeter – as water systems, real estate, infrastructure, and habitations near the coast are, bit by bit, nibbled away year after yeat – occasionally punctuated by climate-enhanced and sea-level-pumped storm systems, that will make us pine for the simpler days of Superstorm Sandy..."

The Coming Climate Onslaught. President Obama is readying a sweeping list of executive orders related to climate change; as reported by Politico - here's an excerpt: "...The coming rollout includes a Dec. 1 proposal by EPA to tighten limits on smog-causing ozone, which business groups say could be the costliest federal regulation of all time; a final rule Dec. 19 for clamping down on disposal of power plants’ toxic coal ash; the Jan. 1 start date for a long-debated rule prohibiting states from polluting the air of their downwind neighbors; and a Jan. 8 deadline for issuing a final rule restricting greenhouse gas emissions from future power plants. That last rule is a centerpiece of Obama’s most ambitious environmental effort, the big plan for combating climate change that he announced at Georgetown University in June 2013..."

Is There a Free-Market Solution to Global Warming? Solution is a strong word, but can the markets and innovation help to mitigate climate volatility and avoid a worst-case scenario? Absolutely. Some conservatives point to a revenue-neutral tax on carbon as a way to jump-start the markets to come up with the solutions we're going to need, among them Jonathan Adler, who is quoted at Vox: "...I'm not a fan of regulating greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act [as the Obama administration is doing]," he told me. "I don't think that's particularly effective or efficient. But I don't see the argument for doing nothing. I don't think that's consistent with conservative principles. So I've done papers on adaptation and on how we get the degree of energy innovation many people think will be necessary. And most controversially, I've argued that a revenue-neutral carbon tax would be a good idea..."

Paul Douglas Weather Column

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Accumulating Snow Saturday - The Climate Deal That Almost Wasn't

No!

No!

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