28 F. high in the Twin Cities Sunday.
34 F. average high on March 1.
8 F. high on March 1, 2014, after waking up to -7.
Trace of snow on the ground at KMSP.
March 1, 1913: A record low of 24 degrees below zero is set at the St. Cloud Regional Airport.
Be Afraid
Call
out the National Guard, alert FEMA and pray for a last-minute reprieve.
I've performed last rites on my Doppler - if you leave NOW you may get
to work on time (tomorrow). As odd as it is to see this in print,
there's a good chance of a "plowable snow event" tomorrow, with enough
blowing and drifting to make for a tricky day of travel. NOAA has issued
a Blizzard Watch just west of MSP for tomorrow; details below.
Tuesday's
system moves quickly, keeping total amounts down, but a quick 2 to 4
inches of snow may fall during the morning and midday, whipped along by
30 mph winds by afternoon as much colder air comes charging south of the
border. I'll be hiding in my weather bunker, watching a stain of dark
red spread on my Google traffic maps. Good luck out there.
If it
does snow I suggest you roll around in it, photograph it, memorize the
way it looks, feels and smells - because odds are any snow won't stick
around for long.
Models are unanimous in bringing a surge of mild,
Pacific air into Minnesota next week with a streak of 40s. I could even
see a few 50-degree highs with spurts of rain by mid-March.
Is
tomorrow the last spasm of snow? No, but the atmosphere is about to
shift gears, fast-forwarding us into an almost springy pattern by next
week.
Not exactly a towering "Tournament Storm" but it'll have to do.
Tuesday Blizzard Watch Issued West of MSP.
It isn't the snow amounts, it's the predicted wind speeds tomorrow,
topping 30-40 mph by afternoon, capable of whipping around the few
inches of snow expected to fall. Details from NOAA:
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* TIMING...WORST CONDITIONS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
* WIND AND VISIBILITY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH
WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE. IF
THESE WINDS MATERIALIZE COUPLED WITH FALLING SNOW...VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE COULD OCCUR. AFTER THE
SNOW ENDS...THE VISIBILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.
Monster Storm.
Considering the most snow we've had from a single "storm" this winter
is 3.4" Tuesday epic snowfall may rank right up there. I'm thinking
2-3", maybe more just north and west of the Twin Cities. But this next
wave of low pressure moves very quickly, which will limit amounts
tomorrow.
Potentially Plowable.
4 KM NAM guidance from NOAA suggests 2-3" for much of the Twin Cities,
as much as 4-5" closer to Little Falls, Brainerd and Crosby.
Temperatures fall through the 20s tomorrow, with significant blowing and
drifting by afternoon as wind gusts top 30 mph. Map: Ham Weather.
Another Shot.
Tuesday's snow falls in advance of another surge of bitter air, but
this time it won't stay nanook for long. Wednesday will take your breath
away (wind chills in the -20 to -30F range) and we wake up to a very
subzero morning Thursday. And then the warming begins. 2-meter
temperature prediction: NOAA NAM and Ham Weather.
Shifting Gears.
There's at least a 1 in 3 chance that the subzero wake-up readings
Wednesday and Thursday morning of this week MAY be the last of the
winter. That may be overly optimistic, but based on how significant the
shift in the pattern appears to be next week I'd be surprised if we see
any more negative numbers after March 6. The mercury may brush 40F on
Friday - by the weekend whatever snow falls tomorrow should be largely
gone, allowing the sun's energy to go into heating up the air vs.
melting snow next week. That, in turn, could mean a streak of 40s, even a
few days above 50F next week.
A Whiff of Spring Fever.
GFS guidance from NOAA shows consistent 40s after March 13 or so, even a
few days near 50F; the atmosphere mild enough for rain by the middle of
next week. That was sudden.
Weather Officials Worry That Quiet Tornado Seasons Have Lulled into Complacency.
The Wichita Eagle
has the story, including a few jaw-dropping statistics, and concern
about what 2 supernaturally quiet years may mean for 2015. Here's a
clip: "
Tornado Alley has never been this quiet in the Wichita area
before. Forget about tornadoes last year – there were not even any
tornado watches issued. That’s never happened before in the nearly half a
century that watch records have been kept. There were only two tornado
watches issued for Sedgwick County the year before that, which
translates into the lowest two-year total on record..."
Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/weather/article11863763.html#storylink=cpy
What ISIS Really Wants. Just in case you missed this important story in
The Atlantic; here's a link and excerpt: "
The
Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious
group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key
agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its
strategy—and for how to stop it..." (Image credit: AP/The Atlantic).
Uber Was Hacked Last May. In case you didn't hear -
PC Magazine has more details; here's a clip: "
Uber
revealed on Friday that an "unauthorized third party" broke into a
company database last May and gained access to driver data. The
ridesharing service said in a blog post
that it discovered the security breach last September and "[u]pon
discovery we immediately changed the access protocols for the database
and began an in-depth investigation." "A small percentage of current and
former Uber driver partner names and driver's license numbers were
contained in the database..."
Who Is Hacking Whom?
Ham Weather uber-programmer and weather model specialist, Patrick
Francis, wrote a recent story that made me do a triple-take. Here's an
excerpt from
aplus.com: "
Modern
Media will "Hype" times that a massive hack occurs, such as Sony
Corporation, but does that tell the real story? For the last two months I
have tracked every attempted breach of my systems, stored the IP of the
attacker, and researched information about his or her country of
origin, city, company and so forth. The heck of it is, there's not a lot
that can be done with this information, because there is no one to
share it with who can do anything about it! :) Still, some people might
be interested to know a little bit about who is hacking who..."
Why More Schools Are Letting Their Students Sleep In.
Huffington Post has an interesting update on the merits of later school starts; here's an excerpt: "...
According
to a new poll, parents are coming around to the idea of letting kids
hit the snooze button. A survey conducted in November and December 2014
by the University of Michigan C.S. Mott Children's Hospital as part of
its National Poll on Children's Health found that about half of parents of teenagers whose schools start before 8:30 a.m. would support a later school start time.
Forty percent said a later start time would allow their teens to get
more sleep, and 22 percent said a later start time would help their
teens do better in school..."
Facebook Will Now Reach Out To Users Who Their Friends Think Are Suicidal.
A big thank you to Dr. Dan Reidenberg and his amazing team at SAVE
(Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education) based in Bloomington for being
the driving force behind this effort with Facebook;
BuzzFeed News reports: "...
The
social network teamed up with a number of suicide prevention
organizations and research centers in hopes of helping people online
prevent their friends from committing suicide. These organizations
include National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, Now Matters Now, Save.org, and Forefront: Innovations in Suicide Prevention from the School of Social Work at Washington University..."
Kids, Allergies and a Possible Downside to Squeaky Clean Dishes. So there is an upside to being a slob, after all? Great news. Here's an excerpt from
NPR: "
Could
using a dishwashing machine increase the chances your child will
develop allergies? That's what some provocative new research suggests —
but don't tear out your machine just yet. The study
involved 1,029 Swedish children (ages 7 or 8) and found that those
whose parents said they mostly wash the family's dishes by hand were
significantly less likely to develop eczema, and somewhat less likely to
develop allergic asthma and hay fever..."
TODAY: Early sun, then clouds increase. Winds: S 10. High: 28
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow developing late. Low: 22
TUESDAY:
Blizzard Watch west of MSP. 2-4" snow possible. Blowing & drifting
likely with potentially treacherous travel. High: 28
WEDNESDAY: Last subzero slap? Feels like - 25. Wake-up: -2. High: 8
THURSDAY: Cold start. Partly sunny and breezy. Wake-up: -8. High: 18
FRIDAY: Sunny peeks, risk of a thaw. Wake-up: 14. High: 38
SATURDAY: Blue sky, quiet pleasant. Wake-up: 21. High: 35
SUNDAY: Drippy icicles. Feels like March! Wake-up: 18. High: 43
* Thanks to Media Logic meteorologist Todd Nelson, who snapped the photo above near Two Harbors on Saturday.
Climate Stories...
Is The Environment a Moral Cause? Here's a clip from a
New York Times Op-Ed: "...
People
think quite differently, however, when they are morally engaged with an
issue. In such cases people are more likely to eschew a sober
cost-benefit analysis, opting instead to take action because it is the
right thing to do. Put simply, we’re more likely to contribute to a
cause when we feel ethically compelled to. Still, why do liberals
moralize environmental issues, while conservatives do not? The answer is
complex, owing in part to the specific history of the American
environmental movement..."
Greenpeace Probe of Climate Naysayer Implicates Exxon Mobil.
BuzzFeed News takes a look at more implications of the Willie Soon sage; here's an excerpt: "...
The records
released Friday show that Exxon’s support of Soon came despite a 2007
pledge to quit funding climate naysayer groups, according to
Greenpeace’s Jesse Coleman, who started the Soon records search using
public records laws. “Exxon told us that they would stop funding climate
denial front groups,” Coleman told BuzzFeed News. “Years later, they
were still funding Willie Soon...”
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