68 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Saturday.
56 F. average high on April 11.
63 F. high on April 11, 2014.
April 11, 1929: Downpour in Lynd, Minnesota (near Marshall) dumps 5.27 inches of rain in 24 hours.
An Unholy Weather Lotto
Fairdale,
Illinois. Joplin, Missouri. Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Moore, Oklahoma. For
that matter Comfrey and Fridley. Why do some towns get hit while the
rest of us look on in awe and horror?
Like watching a soap opera or bad reality TV show we cringe and give thanks for our good fortune.
"It could be so much worse."
All
you can do is lower your risk. Safety drills. Numerous sources of
severe warnings (NOAA Weather Radio & apps). Situational awareness,
knowing where the nearest shelter is, preferably below ground. Having
the good sense to know when to put down the camera and run for cover.
At
yesterday's Minnesota Severe Storm Conference speakers discussed the
impact of a changing climate. Tornado season now comes earlier in the
year. Non-tornadic severe wind events may increase and the recipe for
tornadoes (instability and wind shear) may become slightly more
favorable in the years ahead, but the jury is still out.
I don't
expect anything severe today, just rain and growls of thunder by
evening. That's it for rain this week; a streak of 60s into next weekend
as lawns glow neon-green.
It's that dazzling shade of lemon-lime. The color of renewal, rebirth and a fresh start.
Photo credit above: "
In
an aerial photo, rubble from damaged homes remains, on Friday, April
10, 2015, caused by a tornado the night before, in Fairdale, Ill. Damage
survey teams were working Friday to officially determine the strength
of the tornado system and extent of the damage." (AP Photo/Chicago Tribune, Armando L. Sanchez)
Illinois Wedge Tornado. Check out this amazing YouTube clip, courtesy of
Live Storms Media: "
Drill
bit tornado developed west of I-39 and widened as it moved toward the
highway. The tornado entered it's wedge stage while crossing the highway
and doing significant damage. The tornado then moved away toward the
Fairdale community where at least one fatality has taken place and
destruction took place. This large tornado churned across a long track
and the National Weather Service will survey the damage starting
tomorrow. Footage shot by Tyler Olson of Live Storms Media."
Illinois Death Toll Rises As Crews Search Rubble.
CBS News
has more details on the severe tornadoes that touched down about 1 hour
west of Chicago Thursday evening; here's an excerpt: "...
Resident
Al Zammuto, a 60-year-old machinist, said he and other residents
received cellphone alerts at 6:45 p.m., but he dismissed it as previous
warnings hadn't amounted to anything. Then his windows exploded. He took
cover as the severe weather struck. Bricks were torn off the side of
his home. Minutes later he stepped outside and couldn't believe his
eyes. He said the town looked trashed "looked like a landfill" and the
sounds were haunting. "People were screaming and yelling," he said.
"People were in total shock..."
Photo credit above: "
This
aerial photo shows a path of destruction Friday, April 10, 2015, after a
tornado swept through the small town of Fairdale, Ill., in DeKalb
County Thursday night. The National Weather Service says at least two
tornadoes churned through six north-central Illinois counties. Illinois
Gov. Bruce Rauner declared DeKalb and Ogle counties affected by the
severe storms and tornadoes as disaster areas." (AP Photo/Daily Chronicle, Danielle Guerra).
Just Enough Rain To Settle The Dust.
Last night's 00z NAM run prints out a whopping .11" tonight for the
Twin Cities metro; possibly the only rain of the entire week. I hope I'm
not using the D-word (drought, or maybe "duh" come to think of it) into
the summer months, but my gut is telling me this will be a drought year
for much of the USA, including the Upper Midwest. I hope I'm wrong.
Meanwhile the south sees more rain than it knows what to do with. 12 KM
NAM accumulated rainfall product: NOAA and AerisWeather.
A Southern Soaking.
NOAA models print out as much as 6-8" of rain from a series of storms
forecast to sweep across the Deep South and Gulf Coast in the coming
week, capable of flash flooding. While drought intensifies from
Minneosta to California.
One Good-Looking Week.
Although a 3-day rain storm dumping 3-4" of rain would look pretty good
right about now. Gusty winds transport the mercury into the 70s today
before a few showers and T-showers sprout by late afternoon or evening -
nothing severe expected. We dry out tomorrow, a streak of 60s into next
weekend. We're due for a break, but I'd like to see more rain in the
forecast. Source: Weatherspark.
Out On A Limb.
Although a dry bias is likely this week and much of next week
long-range GFS guidance prints out nearly 2" of rain from a slow-moving
storm April 24-26. Circle your calendar, light a candle and hope for the
best. Source: NOAA.
Turning The Corner on Moisture?
I sure hope so; we seem to be sliding into a wetter pattern, but
whether this is a trend or a fluke - it's still too early to say. Here's
an excerpt from Mark Seely at
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "
Some
Minnesota observers across the southern third of the state have
reported measurable rainfall every day since last Saturday, by far the
wettest period of the year so far. Over April 4-10 many climate
stations reported over half an inch of rainfall, while far northern and
southeastern locations received 1 to 3 inches of snowfall. Hail was
reported from Freeborn, Martin, and Rock Counties. The weekly
precipitation totals were significant for many southeastern Minnesota
cities with Grand Meadow reporting 3.14 inches, Minnesota City
reporting 3.16 inches, and La Crescent reporting 3.36 inches..."
Quiet Hurricane Season Means You Should Still Prepare. All it takes is one. Here's some timely and useful information from
disastersafety.org: "..
While this is good news, the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety
(IBHS) reminds residents it only takes one storm to devastate a
community, a state or an entire region. History has shown us that
devastating hurricanes can still happen in below-average seasons.
Hurricane Andrew, which is the second most damaging hurricane in U.S.
history, was the first storm in 1992, and the rest of the season was
relatively quiet. Therefore, IBHS encourages residents to be prepared,
and start their hurricane home protection efforts now before the start
of the season on June 1..."
California's Drought And The Weird, Warm "Blob" In The Pacific That May Be Fueling It.
What, on Earth, is triggering the ridiculously resilient ridge over the
west coast of the USA, with subsequent mega-drought and record heat?
Here's an excerpt from
The Washington Post: "...
It’s
not clear what’s causing the warming of the water in the Tropics (and
the resulting weather weirdness). The “North Pacific Mode” phenomenon
has been recorded before, though it’s been getting stronger since the
1980s and this occurrence is more persistent and more extreme than
what’s been seen in the past, Hartmann said. It could be just another
natural variation in ocean and atmosphere temperatures, similar to the
El Nino-La Nina cycle. Or, if it persists and becomes stronger, it could
signal a more fundamental shift..."
Image credit above: "
This
figure shows the anomaly in surface tempratures off the coast of
Washington and Oregon in April 2014. The green sections are less than 1
degree Celsius warmer than the 1981-2010 averages, while the orange
sections are 1.5 degrees or more above average." (NOAA).
Renewable Energy: Not a Toy. The Economist
takes a look at the economic forces (and very real ROI's) driving the
acceleration of clean, renewable energy; here's an excerpt: "
Global
investment in renewable energy, chiefly wind and solar power, rose by a
sixth in 2014, to $270 billion. This was partly because of subsidies in
the rich world, such as America’s 30% federal tax credit for solar
projects. Under a system known as “net metering”, consumers with small
solar installations can sell surplus power to the grid at the same price
as they pay for power flowing in. But even if the tax credit is cut, as
expected, solar electricity could displace 9.7% of American retail
electricity sales by 2019, reckons Bernstein, a research firm—over 30
times the share today..." (Graphic: The Economist).
Redneck Ice Fishing. Please don't try this at home.
TODAY: Sun fades, windy. Late PM storms. Winds: S 25+ High: 71
SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and T-showers. Low: 44
MONDAY: Increasingly sunny, still pleasant - a bit cooler. High: 63
TUESDAY: Lukewarm sun, a beautiful day. Wake-up: 41. High: 68
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun, mild breeze. Wake-up: 48. High: 67
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still dry. Wake-up: 45. High: 65
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, showers far north. Wake-up: 47. High: near 70
SATURDAY: Sunny, nicer day of the weekend. Wake-up: 46. High: 68
Read more here: http://www.islandpacket.com/2015/04/06/3684699_model-of-storm-surge-simulator.html?rh=1#storylink=
Climate Stories....
Climate Change Seen Bringing More Fires, Less Snow to Yellowstone. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Reuters: "...
Warming
that is expected in the American West over the next few decades would
transform lands in and around Yellowstone from a wetter, mostly forested
Rocky Mountain ecosystem to a more open landscape akin to the arid U.S.
Southwest, the researchers said in a special issue of a park report.
Such dry condition have not been seen in the area for the past 10,000
years, said the report, "Ecological Implications of Climate Change on
the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem," compiled by more than 20 university
and government scientists..."
Faith Forum: Is Climate Change a Moral Issue?
It's a scientific reality and an economic challenge, but also a matter
of stewardship and Creation Care for many of us. Here is an excerpt of
an essay, one of many on display at
The Reno Gazette-Journal: "...
The
moral issue for each of us is not that the climate is changing, but
rather how do we relate to and handle the natural environment. Orthodox
Christianity teaches that the way we relate to nature as God's creation
directly reflects the way we relate to God as Creator. And we believe
that the sensitivity with which we handle the natural environment
mirrors exactly the reverence we have for the divine. In other words,
love for God, love for human beings and care for creation are all
vitally interconnected. This is one reason that the Ecumenical
Patriarchate, the highest spiritual authority in our Church, cares
deeply for the environment and has a particular interest in climate
change issues...
Are Conservatives Turning A Corner on Climate? Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at
The Charlotte Observer from a personal hero of mine, former South Carolina Congressman and Republican Bob Ingliss: "...
They’ll
need to believe that we could eliminate all subsidies for all fuels and
attach all costs to all fuels. They’ll need to believe that citizens
can drive innovation once marketplaces are made transparent and fossil
fuels are held accountable for socializing soot. If they can complete
that journey of faith, conservatives will enter the competition of ideas
with an alternative to command and control regulation. If we fail to
enter the competition and if the country decides to act on climate, we
risk losing a tremendous opportunity for free enterprise."
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