Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Mild Bias Continues - More Rain than Snow - Thanksgiving Preview - Glacier Disruption in Greenland
45 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Thursday. 43 F. average high on November 12. 23 F. high on November 12, 2014.
November 13, 1986: Lakes are frozen over throughout much of the state, reaching as far south as Winona. November 13, 1938: A snowstorm develops across northern Minnesota. The barometer falls to 29.31 inches in Duluth. November 13, 1933:
The first Great Dust Bowl Storm occurs. The sky darkened from Minnesota
and Wisconsin to New York State. (Source: Twin Cities National Weather
Service).
Supernaturally Green for Mid-November 60F on Sunday?
So
THIS is what November feels like, without the shorts, monsoon rains and
strobe-flashes of lightning. A few days ago my wife told me the lawn
needed mowing. I've never heard that in November. 2.1 inches of rain
fell at MSP International Airport on Wednesday; more than a November's worth of rain in 24 hours.
Had
temperatures been 8-10F colder we'd be digging out from 18-22 inches of
snow. Then again - if I was 6 foot, 10 inches, athletic and coordinated
I'd be playing for the NBA, but no matter. There was simply too much
mild air around for a classic November snowstorm.
Today offers cool sunshine and seasonable temperatures. A stiff south wind lures the mercury into the 50s Saturday; 60F not out of the question Sunday afternoon in the metro area.
Pretty impressive, considering the winter solstice will be only be 5 weeks away.
A firehose of southern moisture streams north early next week; the atmosphere warm enough for rain Monday into Wednesday. A beefier cold front arrives late next week, maybe preceded by a little slushy snow a week from Friday.
You remember snow, right?
Des Moines Airport Records a Tornado and Snow Six Hours Apart on Wednesday. I can't remember ever seeing this before, documented at Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt: "...Iowa
was in the crosshairs for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.
The temperature was warm, humidity was high and the jet stream was
screaming overhead. Strong storms began to ignite in the early
afternoon, and by 3 p.m. there were multiple storms lined up across the
Des Moines region with likely tornadoes. One of these storms crossed
over the Des Moines International airport and was recorded in the airport’s meteorological observation at 3:36 p.m..." (Image credit above: Weather Underground).
One More Weather-Honeymoon?
I'm sure I said this back in late September, but there's at least "one
more" mild spell ahead. Models show upper 50s on Sunday with an outside
shot at 60 degrees. Source: NOAA and Aeris Enterprise.
Significant Rain Next Week?
It's still early for specifics, but GFS guidance shows a potential for
another inch or two of rain next Tuesday into Wednesday - other models
keep the bulk of the moisture just east of Minnesota.
One More Southern Surge?
GFS guidance looking out 10 days shows another potentially major storm
pushing across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley the first half of
next week; the lowest mile of the atmosphere still mild enough for all
rain. Source: NOAA and AerisWeather.
84-Hour Snowfall Accumulation.
Here is NAM guidance showing a little lake effect snow (possibly
plowable from the Minnesota Arrowhead into the lake effect snow belts of
northern Wisconsin). Otherwise snow will be in short supply between now
and Sunday.
Limping Into Winter.
Here is European guidance, showing upper 50s Saturday and Sunday, and
then a slow slide into colder weather by the end of next week. I'm not
convinced we're going to see (heavy) rain by the middle of next week,
but the atmosphere probably won't be cold enough for snow until next
Friday, one week from today. Models are hinting at a period of wet snow
or possibly a mix. At some point it will snow. Right? Source:
WeatherSpark.
Cold Turkey.
Lately models have been trying to pull cold air southward, but with
each subsequent run the cold looks less and less forbidding or
significant. I suspect this time around it will (really) cool down by
the end of next week; long-range GFS guidance hinting at highs in the
30s for Thanksgiving Day 2015.
The End is Near - To Our Mild Weather Honeymoon.
Although I still wouldn't exactly call this "polar" air, the 2 week 500
mb GFS forecast shows a surge of colder-than-average air pouring into
the northern Plains around Thanksgiving; suggesting a few days with
highs in the 30s, nights possibly dipping into the teens. But will there
be snow on the ground or travel disruptions for Turkey Day? Stay tuned.
Saturday After Thanksgiving - First Look.
OK. We're looking out more than 2 weeks, so buyer beware. My confidence
level is lower than low, but I'm sharing this (now) for laughs and
giggles. NOAA's GFS model spins up an impressive storm, hinting that MSP
will be on the warm side of the storm track with (mostly) rain. This
far out it's more of a curiosity than a prediction - let's see how
future runs handle this system. Map valid midday Saturday, November 28,
courtesy of WSI.
A 384 Forecast?
There, I just spit up in my mouth a little. I know - some days we can't
get the Tomorrow Forecast right, why are you showing me questionable
data this far out. Because it's Thanksgiving Weekend, and storms - given
a choice - are attracted to major travel/shopping weekends. And right
now the GFS is printing out 1-2" of rain for MSP, maybe a mix or snow
for far western Minnesota. I'm sharing this in the spirit of full
disclosure, but this forecast will change as newer (better) data
initializes the models.
The Element of Surprise in Managing Flood Risk.
"I didn't think it could be the bad." As meteorologists we hear that a
lot, especially now with rain falling harder during the warm season.
Here's an excerpt at Earth & Space Science News: "Flooding
events cost lives and cause damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and
homes across the world. When floods occur in vulnerable regions lacking
preparedness, the results can be disastrous. In a new study, Merz et al.
approach the problem by integrating a social sciences perspective with
natural and engineering sciences, focusing on the element of surprise in
flood risk assessment and management. The researchers identify two
distinct sources of surprise: the complexity and unpredictability of the
flood risk and biases in human perception and thinking. They advocate
for wider evaluation of both potential sources of surprise in order to
better mitigate flood risk..." (Photo: EPA).
95% Probability of El Nino Continuing Through the Winter.
The latest model ensemble (above) shows Pacific Ocean water
temperatures peaking in a December-January timeframe, then slowly
cooling as we head into spring. Check out more than you ever wanted to
know about the current El Nino, courtesy of NOAA NCEP.
Mother of All El Ninos?
Bottom line: the models appear to be consistently underestimating the
warming underway in the Pacific. The forecast called for peak
temperatures around 2C above long-term averages. We're already closing
in on 3C. Thanks to Hunter Cutting for passing this tweet along.
How The NWS Issues a Flash Flood Emergency Alert.
Just like a Tornado Emergency (which implies a confirmed tornado moving
into a heavily populated urban or suburban area) a Flood Emergency is
only issued for the most extreme, life-threatening situation. KXAN.com has a good explanation; here's an excerpt: "...This
is the definition for a severe weather emergency from the NWS: “AN
EMERGENCY means that significant, widespread damage with a high
likelihood of numerous fatalities is expected to continue. An emergency
is not a new warning product, but a new, visible and high impact
call-to-action.
Intended Purpose: To motivate and
provide a sense of urgency to persons in the path of this storm. To
communicate to state, local, and county officials and emergency
responders that they should prepare for immediate search and rescue
operations. To communicate the need to prepare for immediate medical
emergencies, evacuation measures, and emergency sheltering..."
Photo credit above: "Texas Parks and Wildlife aerials of flooding on Oct. 30, 2015." (Courtesy: TPWD)
Complicated Tangle of Factors Raising Temperatures in Pacific Ocean. The Columbus Dispatch
has an interesting article that outlines the myriad of factors leading
to record warmth for portions of the Pacific Ocean; here's an excerpt:
"...At the moment, the world’s largest ocean is a troublesome place,
creating storms and causing problems for people and marine life across
the Pacific Rim and beyond. A partial list includes the strong El Nino
system that has formed along the equator, and another unusually
persistent zone of warm water that has been sitting off the North
American coast, wryly called “the Blob.” And a longer-term cycle of
heating and cooling known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may be
switching from a cooling phase to a warming phase. On top of all that is
the grinding progress of climate change, caused by accumulation of
greenhouse gases generated by human activity..."
The Asteroid Hunters.
It's usually the stuff you're not thinking about, or worrying about,
that comes around to bite you. Here's an excerpt of a particularly good
assessment of the risk of asteroid-related extinction events at Popular Mechanics: "...Finding
the civilization killers means that the space community has already
significantly lowered the threat of global catastrophe. It doesn't mean
that one of those huge asteroids won't intersect with Earth's orbit
hundreds or thousands of years down the road, but it means we'll
probably see it coming far enough in advance to do something.
Unfortunately, that's hardly the only threat. "It's a huge step from
saying there are none out there that are going to impact in the next
century and cause a global catastrophe to saying there are hundreds of
thousands big enough to wipe out a city," Morrison says. And too many of
those remain undetected, to say nothing of even smaller but still
dangerous rocks, like the one that blew up over Chelyabinsk..."
Video credit above: "February 15, 2013: A 17-meter asteroid explodes over Russia releasing the energy equivalent of 500 kilotons of TNT." NASA.
The Best and Worst Places to Grow Up.
We know how amazing Minnesota is - no argument there, but how does the
metro area compare when it comes to upward mobility for children? Here's
an excerpt of an interesting story at The New York Times: "...Hennepin County is about averagefor income mobility for children in poor families. It is better than about 49 percent of counties. Location matters – enormously. If you’re poor and live in the Minneapolis area, it’s better to be in Carver County than in Ramsey County or Hennepin County. Not only that, the younger you are when you move to Carver,
the better you will do on average. Children who move at earlier ages
are less likely to become single parents, more likely to go to college
and more likely to earn more..."
Energy Hasn't Been This Hot Since They Invented Fire. Bloomberg Business has the story - here's the introduction: "Nothing
in the energy business can compete with oil for volatility,
geopolitical drama, or sheer utility. Its low price per barrel,
currently under $50, won't last forever. But it may last through the year ahead.
What will be changing at a historic pace in 2016? Everything else. Gas.
Coal. Solar. Wind. Batteries. Cars. This is every energy source for
itself, one clawing its way over another for markets, financing,
subsidies, and friendly policies..."
Low Prices Deepen U.S. Dependence on Mideast Oil. US News has an update - here's the introduction: "Just like old times. This 17th straight month of low oil prices has remained a boon for drivers, manufacturers and refineries, but the International Energy Agency warned Tuesday that
it will also likely force importers like the U.S., European Union,
China and India to rely ever more on a smaller group of low-cost
producers in the Middle East at a scale not seen since the 1970s..." Moving to Renewable Energy Would Create Millions of Jobs, Study Finds. Here's a clip from a story at ThinkProgress and Grist: "...According
to a new study, moving toward renewable energy would actually be a boon
to the economy — and it would create jobs. A lot of them. ThinkProgress reports: The report,
from NextGen Climate America, showed that investment in efficiency,
renewable sources of electricity, and fuel switching — such as moving
from fossil fuel-powered cars to electric vehicles — would add a million
jobs by 2030, and roughly 2 million jobs by 2050, while increasing GDP
by $290 billion and improving household income. The researchers looked
at scenarios that would reduce emissions by 80 percent below 1990
levels..."
Photo credit above: Amit Dave, Reuters.
The Push to Employ Veterans in the Solar Industry. True energy freedom, and a lifeline for returning veterans? Here's an excerpt from Grist: "...Thankfully, many other veterans — ranging from privates to general officers — are
returning from war with a commitment to securing our nation’s energy
future and combating the impacts of climate change. The Solar Energy
Industry Association (SEIA) has recognized the tremendous value and
skills that veterans bring to the solar industry. As such, SEIA and
member companies like Canadian Solar (my employer), Recurrent Energy,
and Clean Power Finance have made a commitment to employing 50,000 veterans in the solar industry by 2020. According to a 2014 report
from the Solar Foundation and Operation Free, as of 2013, the U.S.
solar industry employed 13,192 veterans of the armed forces. This number
represents 9.2 percent of all solar workers in the nation, greater than
the percentage of veteran employment in the economy overall..." (Photo credit: U.S. Marine Corp).
Dubai Firefighters to Tackle High-Rise Fires with Jetpacks. No, you can't make this stuff up. How cool is this? Details via Gizmag: "Fires
in high-rise buildings can be very problematic. It can be difficult to
move around the building, to quickly get equipment to where it needs to
be and even to communicate with people inside. Dubai, a place with lots
of towering constructions, plans to tackle this by giving Jetpacks to
its firefighters..."
Image credit above: "Martin
Aircraft Company will provide up to 20 Jetpacks, two training
simulators, initial training services and operational support."
Uber for Breakups. Because breaking up is hard. Here's an excerpt of a truly head-shaking story at The Atlantic: "The
prices, it should be said, are quite reasonable. For $10, you can buy a
text sent to your significant other informing him or her of the
cessation of your affection. For the same amount, you can buy an email
version of that note. For slightly more—$20—you can buy, if you are
feeling traditional or especially official about it, an actual letter
announcing the breakup. Custom missives will run you a little more: $30
for a letter that features names, explanations, and other details that
will help to drive home the facts that 1) this is over, and 2) this is
not a joke..." (Image credit: homepage of breakupshop.com).
In Greenland, Another Major Glacier Comes Undone. An unsettling headline for an unsettling trend; here's an excerpt from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory: "It's
big. It's cold. And it's melting into the world's ocean. It's Zachariae
Isstrom, the latest in a string of Greenland glaciers to undergo rapid
change in our warming world. A new NASA-funded study published today in
the journal Science finds that Zachariae Isstrom broke loose from a
glaciologically stable position in 2012 and entered a phase of
accelerated retreat. The consequences will be felt for decades to come.
The reason? Zachariae Isstrom is big. It drains ice from an area of
35,440 square miles (91,780 square kilometers). That's about 5 percent
of the Greenland Ice Sheet. All by itself, it holds enough water to
raise global sea level by more than 18 inches (46 centimeters) if it
were to melt completely. And now it's on a crash diet, losing 5 billion
tons of mass every year. All that ice is crumbling into the North
Atlantic Ocean..."
Image credit above: "Landsat-8 image of Greenland's Zachariae Isstrom and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers, acquired on Aug. 30, 2014." Credit: NASA/USGS.
The Secrets in Greenland's Ice Sheets. Here's an excerpt from an important story at The New York Times Magazine: "...The
ice sheets covering Greenland and large areas of Antarctica are now
losing more ice every year than they gain from snowfall. The loss is
evident in the rushing meltwater rivers, blue gashes that crisscross the
ice surface in warmer months and drain the sheets’ mass by billions of
tons annually. Another sign of imbalance is the number of immense
icebergs that, with increasing regularity, cleave from the sheets and
drop into the seas. In late August, for instance, a highly active
glacier in Greenland named Jakobshavn calved one of the largest icebergs
in its history, a chunk of ice about 4,600 feet thick and about five
square miles in area. If the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica were
to collapse and melt entirely, the result would be a sea-level rise of
200 feet or so. This number, though fearsome, is not especially helpful
to anyone but Hollywood screenwriters: No scientist believes that all
that ice will slide into the oceans soon..."
Photo credit above: "The Jakobshavn Glacier as seen from a research flight that was part of NASA’s Operation IceBridge." Credit Olaf Otto Becker for The New York Times.
As CO2 Passes 400 PPM, What Goes Up May Not Come Down. At least anytime soon. Here's an excerpt from InsideClimate News: "...While
not a tipping point that signals climate catastrophe, the 400 ppm mark
is an important symbolic threshold in the fight against climate change.
It represents a 43 percent jump in greenhouse gases since pre-industrial
timesand underscores governments' inaction and
worsening global warming impacts. Scientists at the Mauna Loa
Observatory in Hawaii, the world's longest-running CO2 monitoring
station, predicted in October that because of extra warming from El
Nino, 2015 could be the last year CO2 concentrations in the Northern
Hemisphere stay in the 300 ppm range. They strengthened that prediction
on Monday after a routine calibration of data raised measurements taken
since April by 0.4 ppm. "The adjustment increases the likelihood that [CO2] concentrations will remain above 400 ppm permanently after 2015," they wrote..." Idea of Slow Climate Change in the Past is Flawed, Researchers Say. UPI has the story; here's an excerpt: "...Though
the scarcity of proper geologic records inhibits the study of climate
changes over short periods of prehistoric time, it's a mistake to assume
the absence of rapid change. Accelerated climate change in the past,
scientists from the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg argue, may be
invisible, but it's not absent. As explained in new paper on the
subject, published in the journal Nature Communications, the issue is perspective..."
Photo credit above: "New research suggests climate change happened fast in the past too." File photo by UPI/Shutterstock/Marco Varro.
The Link Between Europe's Migrant Crisis and the Climate Change Debate. Here's an excerpt of an interesting analysis at Fortune: "...What
can the refugee crisis learn from climate change? In both cases,
citizens are so preoccupied with the immediate costs that they may fail
to appropriately recognize the long-term benefits. A smarter strategy
should therefore make the payoff from investments in refugee integration
feel more immediate and tangible, similar to the efforts of companies
like Hive, which provides immediate feedback to consumers on
energy-saving behavior. Rather than framing the influx of refugees as a
problem to be solved, policymakers should advertise its potential
economic advantages by highlighting stories of successful refugees to
make the benefits more tangible..."
Photo credit above: "Slovenian
solders erect razor wire fence in Rakovec, Slovenia, Thursday, Nov. 12,
2015. European leaders scrambled Thursday to keep their passport-free
travel zone from collapsing, after Germany, Sweden and Slovenia acted on
their own to tighten borders or erect fences to slow the relentless
influx of people marching into Europe". (AP Photo/Darko Bandic).
Stop Willful Ignorance of Climate Change Science. TheHill has an Op-Ed worth reading; here's a clip: "...McGrady
is convinced that the scientific community is fabricating claims of
global climate change due to funding conflicts. Authoritative climate
change reports are issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (the IPCC), an intergovernmental panel that researches, analyzes,
and reports on climate change. To get the 2,000+ member scientists from
195 countries to conspire to fabricate weather data and analysis for
over 30 years would be the greatest corruptive event ever to grace human
history, let alone escaping unscathed from a rigorous peer review
process. Russian or Iranian scientists are not going to be operating as
the political arm of Al Gore or any other liberal politician..."
"Science Guy" Bill Nye Gets Heated Up Over Climate Change. The Associated Press has the interview; here's a clip: "...College
kids are very concerned about this. Recently, I visited Alabama,
Tennessee and Texas. What you find on these college campuses (is that)
everybody is, if I can use my term, enlightened. And the state has
politicians who have been in office for years and years, and the two
groups are at odds on climate change. Millennial voters are very
concerned about climate change and will vote for candidates who are
planning to address it. But the systems that are in place - people talk
about gerrymandering and the money that's in politics, this is a real
thing, a real effect - and it's hard for climate change-denying
legislators to get voted out. But I predict it will happen..."
Photo credit above: "This photo provided by courtesy of St. Martin's Press shows the cover of the book, "Unstoppable," by Bill Nye". (Courtesy of St. Martin's Press via AP).
Why Are Oil and Gas Companies Calling for More Action on Climate Change? This Op-Ed at Reuters from the Chief Executive of BP is nothing short of extraordinary; here's an excerpt that got my attention: "...So
why do companies that produce oil and gas want to see more done to
tackle climate change? The first reason is simply that we want the
planet to be sustainable in the future. We have the same hopes and fears
for our children and grandchildren as anyone else. The second reason
for our stance is that, being close to the issue, we have views on the
realistic and affordable ways to make the transition to a lower carbon
economy. And we can see that oil and gas are part of that transition.
With the UN-led conference on climate change in Paris approaching, it's
important that we explain our view..."
File photo: The Guardian.
Investors Urge Exxon to Take Moral Responsibility for Global Warming.
As tempting as it is to demonize Exxon Mobil (and based on what I've
seen I believe their position in the 1990s under a previous CEO was
indefensible) we are all complicit. All of us have benefited from fossil
fuels. They got us to this point. That isn't in question. The issue is
where do we go from here? We didn't leave the Stone Age because we ran
out of stones. We left the Stone Age because we found a better way
forward. Will we repeat history? I'm actually more optimistic now than I
have been in nearly 20 years tracking climate volatility. We'll figure
this out. Here's an excerpt from InsideClimate News: "ExxonMobil
stockholders are turning up the heat on management over the oil giant's
history of resisting action to confront climate change with a
first-ever request asking the company to accept moral responsibility for
global warming. The proposal by the Tri-State Coalition for
Responsible Investment calls on Exxon to take urgent climate action on
moral grounds by agreeing to limit temperature rise to the globally
accepted 2 degrees Celsius target. Tri-State represents nearly 40 Roman
Catholic shareholder organizations with pension funds invested in the
oil giant..."
Photo credit above: "Global warming is being seen by many groups as a moral issue." Credit: Susan Melkisethian via Flickr
Fresh Data Confirms 2015 Is Unlike Any Other Year in Human History. Here's an excerpt of an overview from Eric Holthaus at Slate: "...This year’s global heat wave—about two-tenths of a degree warmer than 2014, a massive leap when averaged over the entire planet—can be blamed most immediately on an exceptionally strong El Niño,
but wouldn’t exist without decades of heat-trapping emissions from
fossil fuel burning. Separate data released on Monday by the U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed the current El
Niño, a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has now tied 1997
for the strongest event ever measured, at least on a weekly basis.
"We've had similar natural events in the past, yet this is the first
time we are set to reach the 1 degree marker and it's clear that it is
human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory,"
said Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in a
statement..."
Pope's Call For Action on Climate Change Has Shifted U.S. Views. Pope
Francis has moved the needle on awareness, the plight of the poorest on
the planet, and the moral imperative of addressing this issue. Here's a
snippet from New Scientist: "When the leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics issued his call to action on climate change in June, observers wondered whether this would move the needle in the public debate. A survey of people in the US released late last week
suggests that it has. Some 17 per cent of overall respondents and 35
per cent of Catholic respondents said they were influenced by Francis’s
message that climate change is a crucial moral issue. The percentage of
Catholics who said they were “very worried” about global warming more
than doubled over the numbers this spring. And those who denied the
scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is happening
declined 10 percentage points for Catholics and 6 points for the US
population in general..."
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