Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Arctic Smackdown Comes in 3 Waves Next Week
33 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities 23 F. average high on January 6. 8 F. high on January 6, 2015.
January 7, 2003:
Record warmth develops over Minnesota. Many places reached the 50s,
including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached
51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were
already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning. January 7, 1873:
A storm named the 'Great Blizzard' hits Minnesota. This three-day
blizzard caused extreme hardship for pioneers from out east who were not
used to the cold and snow. Visibility was down to three feet. Cows
suffocated in the deep drifts and trains were stuck for days. More than
70 people died, and some bodies were not found until spring. Weather
conditions before the storm were mild, just like the Armistice Day
storm.
Next Week's Arctic SmackDown Arrives in 3 Waves
"As
the days lengthen the cold doth strengthen". Yes it doth. But I have
good news: it won't be quite as cold as previously expected for the
Vikes-Seahawks game at TCF Stadium Sunday. The game time temperature should be -3F with a chill factor of -25F. Almost reasonable.
And
let's not blubber over our misfortune or feel too sorry for ourselves.
Minnesota is Club Med compared to other northern outposts. The Russian
town of Oymyakon keeps schools open as cold as -52F. Air temperature,
not wind chill. It's gotten as cold as -90F in Oymyakon (which may be
Russian for Oh My God!) but the local tourist office insists it's "a
perfect destination for travelers with a lust for the extreme".
Uh huh.
We're waking up to a little slush but roads should be mainly wet today & Friday. Models hint at a couple inches of snow Friday before temperatures begin to plummet.
The much-advertised cold wave arrives in 3 separate waves: subzero Sunday, another shot Tuesday, again next Thursday. Character-building cold.
Next week will be the coldest of the winter. Models show a warming trend within 2 weeks. In theory.
* Sunday 1 pm surface ECMWF temperature prediction courtesy of WeatherBell.
7 of the Coldest Places in the World to Live. Thankfully we did not make the list, but Oymyakon, Russia did. Here's an excerpt of a description at Mother Nature Network: "Folks
in Oymyakon take exception whenever Verkhoyansk lays claim to being the
coldest location in the Northern Hemisphere, pointing out that they
recorded a low of minus 90 degrees F on Feb. 6, 1933. Depending on whom
you ask, 500 to 800 people call Oymyakon home, a three-day drive from
Yakutsk. Schools stay open through minus 52 degrees.
The village is named after a local hot spring, which some residents tap
during the winter by breaking through the thick crust of ice rimming
the warm water. Oymyakon's tourism board has promoted the town as a
perfect destination for adventure travelers hungry for a taste of the
extreme."
It's Baaaack.
Although not as intense or long-duration as a couple years ago, the
frozen remains of the polar vortex are about to empty southward across
the barren, ice-encrusted plains of central Canada, setting the stage
for a very cold spell of weather next week. Probably not record-setting,
but cold enough for most folks. GFS 10-day 2-meter temperature
forecast: NOAA and AerisWeather.
Subzero in the Brainerd Lakes by Saturday Evening.
I received the e-mail alert (above) last night, predicting a dip below
0F by 8 PM Saturday evening. By Sunday morning temperatures will be
below zero statewide. Source: Aeris Enterprise.
A Little Snow Precedes A Lot of Cold.
Here is one model solution, continuing to show the best chance of a
plowable snowfall Friday over Wisconsin, maybe a couple inches of snow
for parts of central and east central Minnesota. Right now I'm thinking many spots in the metro will wind up with 1-3" Friday, the best chance of 3" toward Stillwater and Hudson.
Potentially Slick.
Friday temperatures will be close to 32F much of the day before falling
sharply Friday night. So many roads and freeways may stay wet and
slushy until later in the day and night. I received the text above
showing a chance of 2" of fresh snow in Minneapolis by 2 PM Friday
afternoon. Source: Aeris Enterprise Mobile.
No Cause for Panic.
Another NOAA model solution keeps most of the snow over Wisconsin,
closer to an inch for the MSP metro Friday and Friday night. It may
still be plowable, especially east of the St. Croix. That said, I'm
still leaning toward 1-3" of slushy snow Friday before the frozen
flood-gates open wide.
Late Month Recovery.
Long-range guidance (GFS) shows hints at a thaw as we push into the 4th
week of January as winds aloft blow from the Bay Area, instead of the
Yukon. I expect some moderation, at least 20s and probably a few 30s as
we end out the month of January.
Remembering the Ice Bowl.
Did bitter cold give an edge to the Packers back in 1967? You could
make a case that the Cowboys just weren't prepared for the intensity of
the chill. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating account from Wikipedia: "...Prior
to the game, many of the Green Bay players were unable to start their
cars in the freezing weather, forcing them to make alternate travel
arrangements to make it to the stadium on time. Linebacker Dave Robinson
had to flag down a random passing motorist for a ride. The referees for
the game found they did not have sufficient clothing for the cold, and
had to make an early trip to a sporting goods store for earmuffs, heavy
gloves, and thermal underwear.[34] Packers quarterback Bart Starr
attended an early church service with his father, who had visited for
the game, and as Starr later said, "It was so cold that neither of us
talked about it. Nobody wanted to bring it up." The officials were
unable to use their whistles after the opening kick-off. As referee Norm Schachter
blew his metal whistle to signal the start of play, it froze to his
lips. As he attempted to free the whistle from his lips, the skin ripped
off and his lips began to bleed. The conditions were so hostile that
instead of forming a scab, the blood simply froze to his lip. For the
rest of the game, the officials used voice commands and calls to end
plays and officiate the game. At one point during the game, CBS
announcer Frank Gifford said on air, "I'm going to take a bite of my coffee..." (Image credit above: Wisconsin Public Radio).
Sharply Negative AO - Some Recovery After January 20?
After being positive most of autumn the Arctic Oscillation, a measure
of the "compactness" of the polar vortex, has gone sharply negative,
meaning a more meandering, southward flowing surge of polar air which
will finally catch up with us over the weekend. It's early, but models
suggest a positive turn within 2 weeks, which should mean some
moderation by the last week of January. By then we'll all be ready for a
not-as-arctic front. Source: NOAA CPC.
"Freak" Atlantic Storm Eats Away at Arctic Ice Cap. Here's an excerpt of an interesting article at The Weather Network: "...As
the animation shows, Arctic sea ice extent was still growing as as of
Dec 27-29, but once the storm pushed in on Dec 30, it began to eat away
at the sea ice in the region of the Arctic north of Europe. According to
the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, sea ice extent in the Arctic
during the latter half of Dec 2015 grew at a rate just greater than was
seen in the last two weeks of Dec 2014. When Storm Frank arrived,
however, that growth ground to a halt, as losses from that region of the
Arctic almost completely offset gains in sea ice extent in other areas
(such as the Bering Strait)..."
Image credit: "Mean sea
level pressure between Saturday, December 27, 2015 and Monday, January
4, 2016, as forecast by the GFS model, showing the progression of the
low from Texas to the Arctic Ocean." Image credit: Tropical Tidbits
Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
Based on unusual warmth and hurricane-like storms pulling 30s into the
North Pole 2016 is starting out with the lowest arctic sea ice coverage
in the modern record. Here's an excerpt from The National Snow and Ice Data Center: "Arctic
sea ice growth for December averaged 65,000 square kilometers (25,000
square miles) per day compared to the long-term average of 64,000 square
kilometers (24,700 square miles) per day. Cool conditions at the 925
hPa level (2 to 4 degrees Celsius or 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit below
average) existed in Baffin Bay, the Alaskan North Slope, and parts of
eastern Siberia. A broad area of Europe and western Russia, including
the northern Barents Sea, saw temperatures as much as 4 to 8 degrees
Celsius (7 degrees to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average at the 925
hPa level..."
There's a Fascinating Reason Why You're More Likely To Get Sick in the Winter. MSN.com takes a look at new research; here's an excerpt: "...Some research suggests that both the cold air from outdoors as well as the dry air
from indoors may play a role in protecting the aerosol droplets we
sneeze and cough into the air, allowing them to more easily spread from
one sick person to another. Plus, stuffy, unventilated indoor air could
make it easier for colds to spread; a 2011 study of crowded college dorms in China found that in rooms with poorer ventilation, colds were more likely to thrive. Some research from
the National Institutes of Health suggests that in cold temperatures,
the outer shell of flu virus particles get tougher and more hardy so
that it survives longer and could be easier to spread..."
Keeping Warm in Winter is For The Birds. Smithsonian Science News takes a look at how birds make it through the frigid winter months; here's an excerpt: "...And
just like the coats people wear, birds tend to get puffier in winter.
“A bird’s body heat warms the air between its feathers,” Marra explains.
“So birds fluff up in the cold to trap as much air in their feathers as
possible. The more trapped air, the warmer the bird.” So feathers are
great for the parts of a bird that have feathers, but what about a
bird’s legs and feet? It’s not like birds have pockets they can stick
them into…or do they? One way birds keep their legs and feet warm is to
stand on one leg, while the other is tucked up warmly in its feathers.
And then they switch to give the other leg a turn..."
Photo credit above: "Small
birds like this European robin puff up their feathers in order to trap
more air in them, which is then warmed by their body heat and keeps the
bird toasty on a cold winter morning." (Flickr photo by Theirry Marysael).
Traffic Cams Capture Terrifying EF-4 Tornado.
This is the killer tornado that hit the Garland, Texas area on December
26, 2015; here's a link to the video and explainer from The Weather Channel: "This
incredible video sheds a stark light on the deadly tornado that passed
over Interstate 30 in Garland, Texas the day after Christmas – the same
tornado that would go on to kill eight people. It's a video that Garland
Police Department spokesman Pedro Barineau called "terrifying." The
video, comprised of clips from five cameras at the intersection of I-30
and the Bush Turnpike, shows first a distant, flashing glimpse of the
EF-4 tornado. Then the destructive power of the tornado comes front and
center as debris flies across the screen..."
Mississippi River Floods Could Cost $1 Billion, And They're Not Over Yet. Here's a clip from a story at WXshift: "...While
major flood events in the Midwest and the Mississippi Valley are not
unusual, the fact that we had such extraordinary flooding in late
December is certainly one for the record books,” Steve Bowen, a meteorologist at re-insurer Aon Benfield, said.
The Midwest has seen catastrophic flooding as recently as spring 2011
when the Mississippi and Missouri rivers set a number of records. In an
odd twist of fate, the tropical Pacific also played a role, though it
was due to El Niño’s opposite phase, La Niña. That helped drive a cold, snowy winter in the northern stretches of the rivers’ basins, which fueled a massive runoff in spring. The damage could top $1 billion. The flood is expected to continue into at least next week, but the financial toll it has taken already is clear..."
Risk of Tornadoes and Dime Size Hail...in Los Angeles? Yep, and you can thank a super-sized El Nino for that. Here's an excerpt from The Los Angeles Times: "The
next in a series of storms rolling through Southern California on
Wednesday is bringing with it the risk of severe thunderstorms and a
slim chance of a tornado, the National Weather Service
said. In an unusual development, the Weather Service’s Storm Prediction
Center listed Southern California -- and its more than 19.2 million
residents -- as having a “marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms or even
a tornado. Marginal is the center's lowest category of risk..."
Meteorologists: "Darth Nino" Ties Record for Strongest Seen. It's right up there with 1998, according to NOAA. Here's an excerpt from The Associated Press: "Meteorologists
say the current El Nino has stormed its way into the record books,
tying 1997-1998 as the strongest recorded. Mike Halpert, deputy director
of the federal Climate Prediction Center, said initial figures for
October-November-December match the same time period in 1997 for the
strongest El Nino. Meteorologists measure El Nino based on how warm
parts of the central Pacific for three consecutive months. Records go
back to 1950. El Nino is the natural warming of the central Pacific that
changes weather worldwide, including bringing more rain to California..."
How To Survive El Nino Like an Angeleno.
Residents of southern California are happy to see it rain again. They
could live without the mudslides, tornadoes and traffic nightmares
though. Here's how they're coping, courtesy of The Los Angeles Times.
Record El Nino, Climate Change Drive Extreme Weather.
Are consistenty warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures helping to drive a
record El Nino and many of the weather symptoms popping up across the
planet? Here's an excerpt from BDLive: "Deadly
extreme weather on at least five continents is driven in large part by a
record-breaking El Niño, but climate change is a likely booster too,
experts said on Monday. The 2015-16 El Niño, they added, is the
strongest ever measured. "It is probably the most powerful in the last
100 years," said Jerome Lecou, a climate expert at the French weather
service Meteo France, noting that accurate measurements have only
existed since the mid-20th century. Flooding and mudslides unleashed by
torrential rains have killed at least 10 people and driven more than
150,000 from their homes in Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay in recent
days. ..." (Graphic credit: NOAA CPC).
From El Nino to La Nina Later in 2016?
Severe El Nino warm phases are often (but not always) followed by
swings in the opposite direction, into a La Nina cool phase, which
increases the potential for drought across much of the USA east of the
Rockies. We'll see. Here's an excerpt from Bloomberg Business: "A
number of El Nino-Southern Oscillation indicators suggest that the
2015-16 El Nino has peaked and weather models predict it will decline in
coming months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said
on its website on Tuesday. Conditions will return to neutral during the
second quarter with a chance of La Nina in the second half of 2016, it
said. La Nina is a cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sometimes
thought of as El Nino’s opposite..." What North America Can Expect From El Nino.
Every El Nino has a different "flavor" and slightly different symptoms,
no two events are identical, according to a good overview at The Conversation; here's an excerpt: "...During
the coming months, climate scientists expect that El Niño will pull the
east Pacific Northern Hemisphere jet stream and its associated storm
track southward. Normally these storms veer to the north toward the Gulf
of Alaska or enter North America near British Columbia and Washington,
where they often link up with cold Arctic and Canadian air masses and
bring them down into the United States. Instead, with the jet stream
following an altered path, the northern states are likely to experience
relatively mild and drier-than-normal weather. Storms tracking across
the continent further to the south will likely create wet conditions in
California and across the South as far east as Florida..."
Photo credit above: "Flooding in Clear Lake, California, March 1 1998, during the 1997-1998 ‘super’ El Niño event." Dave Gatley/FEMA.
Study Finds That Weather Disasters Took a Heavy Toll on Crops. Here's the intro to new research highlighted at The New York Times: "Droughts
and heat waves wiped out nearly a tenth of the rice, wheat, corn and
other cereal crops in countries hit by extreme weather disasters between
1964 and 2007, according to a new study. The paper, published Wednesday in Nature,
examined data on the effects, over five decades, of extreme
temperatures, floods and droughts on national crop harvests. “People
already knew that these extreme weather events had impacts on crop
production,” said Navin Ramankutty,
a geographer from the University of British Columbia and an author of
the report. “But we didn’t know by how much, and we didn’t have a basis
for how that might change in the future...”
The Conservative Case for Solar Subsidies. An Op-Ed at The New York Times makes the case; here's a snippet: "... Solar
energy prices have continued to fall rapidly, twice as many Americans
work in the solar industry as in coal mining, and last year one-third of
new electricity generation came from solar power.
Solar, long viewed through the lens of crony capitalism, has shown the
ability to inject real market competition in energy distribution, one of
the last monopolies in the energy sector, while improving the
efficiency of the grid and putting more dollars in the pockets of
middle-class Americans. Conservatives, in other words, need to take
another look at solar. The case for solar isn’t limited to prices and
jobs. Consumers want choice...." (File image: Fresh Energy).
American Rage: The Esquire/NBC News Survey. Why are so many of us so pisssed off? Here's the intro to an explanation at Esquire: "WE
THE PEOPLE ARE PISSED. THE BODY POLITIC IS BURNING UP. AND THE ANGER
THAT COURSES THROUGH OUR HEADLINES AND NEWS FEEDS—ABOUT INJUSTICE AND
INEQUALITY, ABOUT MARGINALIZATION AND DISENFRANCHISEMENT, ABOUT WHAT
THEY ARE DOING TO US—SHOWS NO SIGN OF ABATING. ESQUIRE TEAMED UP WITH
NBC NEWS TO SURVEY 3,000 AMERICANS ABOUT WHO'S ANGRIEST, WHAT'S MAKING
THEM ANGRY, AND WHO'S TO BLAME..."
All caps, nice touch... Meet the Chef Who Decides What Tom Brady Eats. Yes, really. Boston.com has the (ahem) story.
The U.S. Navy Is Very Interested in This Swimming Drone. Quartz has the video clip and explainer: "Rutgers
University has built a drone that can swim as well as it can fly, as
you can see in the video above. The “Naviator,” as they’ve called it,
has sparked the interest of the US Navy, which recently funded the
project with a $618,000 grant. Rutgers engineers say they will use the
money to make it stronger and faster..."
Meru.
If you like mountain-climbing docs you don't want to miss this - the
first ascent of a seemingly impossible peak in the Himalayas, a
sharkfin-shaped blade of ice and rock, a mountain so technically
impossible it makes Everest look like a day-hike. I watched it on Amazon
Video - I think it's available on iTunes as well. The cinematography is
awe-inspiring, the story will lift your spirits. The YouTube trailer is
here.
TODAY: Flurries, mainly wet roads. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 34
THURSDAY NIGHT: More flurries, patchy fog possible. Low: 31
FRIDAY: Period of wet snow, couple inches may fall. Winds: N 7-12. High: 33
SUNDAY: Brutal. Feels like -25F at times. Risk of frostbite. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: -6. High: -1
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, coating of flurries? Wake-up: -8. High: 13
TUESDAY: Next shot of arctic air arrives. Delightfully numb. Wake-up: 0. High: 5
WEDNESDAY: Chance of light snow after a very cold start. Wake-up: -12. High: 15
Climate Stories...
Climate Change is Indeed a Cause of Social Conflict. When
people ask me if climate volatility is a bigger threat than ISIS I tell
them the truth: we have multiple challenges and threats at any given
point in time. Did perpetual drought in Syria help to create the
conditions that allowed ISIS to flourish? As is often the case it's a
combination of factors, a perfect storm of variables. Here's an excerpt
from The Goldman School of Public Policy at The University of California, Berkeley: "...Another
caveat: We can’t predict that a particular conflict will or will not
happen. Instead, we can assess the risk that violence might occur in
response to changes in the climate. The situation is similar to
assessing the risk of a car accident. Nobody ever says, “If you drive to
the store now, you will get into an accident.” Instead, we might say,
“If you drive to the store during this rainstorm, you are more likely to
get into an accident than if you wait until the rain stops.” We have
studied many types of violence — including sports violence, murder, gang
violence, riots and civil wars. What we find time and again, around the
world and throughout human history, is that climatic events are a cause
of social conflict. They are not the only cause, but in places where
there is a risk of violence because of non-climate factors, climate
changes can amplify this risk..."
America Has Been Duped on Climate Change. Why and how? Follow the money. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The Washington Post: "...The Declaration of Independence says the legitimacy of government is based on the consent of the governed.But
when vested interests with outsize economic and cultural power distort
the public debate by introducing falsehoods, the integrity of our
deliberations is compromised. Such seems the case today when we consider
the fossil fuel industry’s role in distorting discourse on the urgent
topic of climate change. If vested economic interests and public
relations firms can systematically alter the national debate in favor of
their own interests and against those of society as a whole, then the
notion of democracy and civic morality is undermined. Congress can and
should act to investigate this issue fully. Only then can we restore
trust and legitimacy to American governance and fulfill our moral duty
to aggressively address climate change..."
The Silent Way Global Warming is Affecting Your Wardrobe. Here's an excerpt of a story from Quartz and WhoWhatWear: "When
it comes to climate change, there are two camps of people—those who
contend with it and those who don’t—but the more time passes, the harder
it is to ignore. Among the evidence? Rising seas, violent storms, and
extreme drought. Not to mention the fact that 2015 is slated to be the hottest year on record. And, according to a recent article on Quartz,
climate change may well be affecting our wardrobes, too. Due to its
depletion of so many crucial natural resources, a host of our favorite
clothing and accessories materials are now at risk too. This could
result in poorer quality or downright depletion—neither of which would
be good for the fashion industry at large or our closets..."
Earth is Experiencing a Global Warming Spurt. The
effects of ENSO (El Nino warming phases and La Nina cooling phases of
the Pacific) can either magnify or mask the gradual warming already well
underway, as reported by Climate Central: "Cyclical changes in the Pacific Ocean have thrown earth’s surface into what may be an unprecedented warming spurt,
following a global warming slowdown that lasted about 15 years. While
El Niño is being blamed for an outbreak of floods, storms and
unseasonable temperatures across the planet, a much slower-moving cycle
of the Pacific Ocean has also been playing a role in record-breaking
warmth. The recent effects of both ocean cycles are being amplified by
climate change..."
Global temperature anomalies valid 12z this morning, courtesy of Climate Reanalyzer.
Short Sleeves on Christmas Eve: El Nino or Climate Change? Or a mix of both, spiked with a little "climate chaos"? Here's an excerpt from the National Center for Science Education: "...In
this same article, Kevin Trenbeth, a senior scientist at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, discussed this
further:
"With even a modest warming of the
globe comes dramatic increases in the likelihood of extreme individual
warm spells and heat waves, like the one we are seeing…Add global
warming to the mix and you get a veritable 'perfect storm' of conditions
favoring heat spells like the one we're seeing right now."
So
it looks like it is a little of both—an El Niño exacerbated by
something known as…climate change. Shocking to my New Englander soul,
but also a good explanation of why in all my years—and my parents’
years—El Niño was never really on our radar..."
Global Warming: Normal Weather is a "Thing of the Past", Says Scientist.
That scientist happens to be located in the UK, where they've seen
record warmth and a series of flooding rain events. Can these (more
extreme) extremes be tied to climate volatility? Here's an excerpt from The Telegraph: "...Professor Myles Allen,
leader of the Climate Research Programme at the University of Oxford’s
Environmental Change Institute said: “Normal weather is actually a bit
of a thing of the past. “Here in Oxford we maintain the world’s longest
daily weather record, we just beat the previous record by a whopping two
and a half degrees and that record was set back in 1852. “You’re not
meant to beat weather records by that kind of margin and just like in
athletics if you start doing so, it’s a sign that something’s actually
changed...”
Some Good News About Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "It
seems as though every day we read a story with dire news about climate
change. Experts now warn that it will be impossible to hold global
warming below 2 degrees Celsius, even with the carbon-emissions limits
set by the recent Paris round of climate talks. Some environmentalists
warn darkly that we must choose between saving the planet or capitalism.
But I have some very good news to report. In 2015, global carbon
emissions actually fell. This isn’t an occasion for complacency. The
fall might be a temporary blip. Even if it’s not, emissions represent
the amount of additional carbon that is added to the atmosphere every
year — that carbon builds up, so toreally halt climate change we will
need to decrease emissions drastically, not just halt their growth..."
Poll: Americans Believe in Climate Change, Remain Iffy on the Cause. Here's the intro to new research and story analysis from Grist: "Well, there’s good news and there’s bad news. First, the good: A new poll
from Monmouth University finds that 70 percent of Americans — unlike
nearly all of Republican presidential hopefuls — do indeed believe in
climate change. The bad news is we’re sharply divided on how important
it is, or even what the cause is. While the rest of the world has
concluded that human activities are responsible for the changing
climate, the Monmouth poll found that a mere 27 percent of respondents
believe it’s mostly our fault and 34 percent assign equal blame
to natural and human causes. The rest, we presume, think all the extra
water in the ocean comes from angel tears..." (Image credit: Alamy).
Can We Stop Climate Change by Tinkering With the Atmosphere?
It's widespread tinkering that got us to where we are now: 400 ppm of
CO2. Are there existing technologies or breakthroughs we can't even
imagine (today) that could reverse the build-up of greenhouse gases?
Here's an excerpt focused on geoengineering from Slate: "...Even
geoengineering’s more cautious proponents tend to argue that the field
requires further research and clearer international standards before any
we deploy any version of it on a global scale. However, even if we are
able to safely implement some of these strategies, the greatest risks
may be social. As many have observed, ameliorating the effects of
climate change may create the illusion that it’s no longer necessary to
fight its root causes. As the sci-fi writer Robinson has suggested,
human engineering—transforming the ways that we live—may ultimately be
the only truly effective form of geoengineering..." Storm Desmond Rainfall Partly Due to Climate Change, Scientists Conclude. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "Manmade
climate change was partly responsible for Storm Desmond’s torrential
rain which devastated parts of Scotland, the Lake District and Northern
Ireland, scientists have concluded. The researchers at Oxford University
and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) calculated
that climate change had made the flooding event 40% more likely, with
the estimate of the increased likelihood ranging between 5% and 80%..." (File image: The Guardian).
Power Plants Threatened as Global Warming Affects Water Supplies. Too
much - or too little water may trigger increasing challenges and
potential disruptions at the nation's power plants that rely on a steady
supply of fresh water; here's an excerpt from Bloomberg Business: "More
than two-thirds of the world’s power plants may have trouble running at
full capacity as the warming climate affects water supplies, according
to a new study.
Reduced streamflows and rising water temperatures may reduce monthly
generating capacity at nuclear, fossil-fuel and biofuel-powered plants
by as much as 30 percent by the 2050s, according to research published
Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Global hydropower capacity
is expected to drop by as much as 3.6 percent in the 2050s and almost
double that amount by the 2080s..." (An abstract of the paper in question is here).
An Investment Strategy to Save the Planet. The New York Times reports on new investment vehicles that chase solid returns, with a real ROI for the environment as well; here's an excerpt: "If
one of your New Year’s resolutions was to do your part against climate
change, keep reading. Now you can — with your investments. You’d be
following New York State’s example. At the Paris climate change talks
last month, the state’s comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli, announced that the
state’s Common Retirement Fund, for public employee pensions, will put
$2 billion into a new investment fund created by Goldman Sachs that
prioritizes companies with smaller carbon footprints. If that goes well,
the retirement fund will put in more..."
Photo credit: J. Emilio Flores for The New York Times.
2 Questions Every Investor Should Ask About Climate Risk. Forbes reports; here's a clip: "It’s
not just fossil fuel companies that will find themselves with stranded
assets in a low-carbon economy, but any company that depends on
carbon-intensive products or processes that are about to get more
expensive. Investors can ask companies two simple questions to assess
how ready they are to transition to the low-carbon economy...."
Manufactured Misinformation. Here's a portion of an abstract focused on new research on the organized movement to muddy the waters on climate science: "Climate
scientists overwhelmingly agree that the Earth is getting warmer and
that the rise in average global temperature is predominantly due to
human activity. Yet a significant proportion of the American public, as
well as a considerable number of legislators in the U.S. Congress,
continue to reject the “consensus view.” While the source of the
disagreement is varied, one prominent explanation centres on the
activities of a coordinated and well-funded countermovement of climate
sceptics. This study contributes to the literature on organized climate
scepticism by providing the first systematic overview of conservative
think tank sceptical discourse in nearly 15 years..."
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