Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
34 F. high temperature yesterday in the Twin Cities. 35 F. average high on March 4. 12 F. high on March 4, 2015, after waking up to -2 F.
.4" snow fell yesterday at KMSP.
March 5, 1966: A powerful blizzard finally ends in the Upper Midwest. Some wind gusts from the storm topped 100 mph.
Stumbling Into Spring - 50s Likely by Sunday
If
you're not just a little bit paranoid it could mean you're not paying
attention. My driveway stakes are still in the ground, heavy jackets in
the closet, trusty snow shovel lurking in the garage, just in case. Old
Man Winter is waving the white flag of surrender - but beware of (big)
March surprises.
I predict, with unusually high confidence, thoughts will turn to spring in the coming days with a streak of 50s, starting Sunday. 60F isn't out of the question by Tuesday
with a few rumbles of thunder. Cue the chirping birds in your yard. No
daffodils yet. I don't think we'll see flowers blooming in late March,
like we did in 2012, but there's little doubt in my mind that ice will
come off area lakes a few weeks earlier than usual.
With puny amounts of snow on the ground and a shallow frost layer the risk of spring flooding is very low.
A
warm bias spills into June. Right now I don't see a drought signal
until maybe late summer, when El Nino flip-flops into a La Nina cool
phase.
Disclaimer: The GFS model prints out a snowstorm in 2 weeks. Who knows, but let's not get cocky. Sunday, 3 PM.
Today feels like mid-March, tomorrow will feel like late March with
highs in the mid-50s, a few 60s over west central Minnesota. 2-meter NAM
temperatures: NOAA and AerisWeather.
Warm Blips - Cool Dips.
After mellowing early next week temperatures cool off by midweek;
another 50-degree blip by Friday. In spite of the occasional puffs of
cooler air temperatures continue to trend 10-20F warmer than average
looking out the next 10 days. Source: WeatherSpark.
2-Week Temperature Trend.
The odds of more subzero air are dropping rapidly with each passing
day; a much higher sun angle in March makes it rare for negative numbers
- rare, but not impossible. We'll see a few more dips to freezing, but
GFS data shows a warm bias lingering into mid-March. Source: Aeris
Enterprise.
Trend Wetter in 1-2 Weeks?
A couple of sloppy, southern storms may finally push moisture into
Minnesota by mid-March; NDFD and GFS ensemble data suggesting over 1" of
(liquid) precipitation possible. Odds favor rain over snow, but don't
rule out another snow event later this month.
Why is 2016 Smashing Heat Records? How much is El Nino vs. background warming of the atmosphere and oceans? Here's an excerpt of a good explanation at The Guardian: "...The
bottom line is that the contributions of the current El Niño and wind
patterns to the very warm conditions globally over the last couple of
months are relatively small compared to the anthropogenically driven
increase in global temperature since pre-industrial times,” he added.
Steffen said the definitive assessment of this El Niño and its effect on
the world’s temperature would only be possible once the event had run
its course (it has now peaked and is expected to end
in the second quarter of this year). But he agreed that past El Niño
cycles could be an appropriate guide for the order of magnitude of the
effect..."
College of DuPage Professor's System May Predict Tornadoes Weeks Away.
It may be able to predict when conditions are ripe for tornadic
supercell storms, but of course not the timing or location of specific
tornadoes. I'm skeptical, but intrigued. Here's an excerpt from WLS-TV in Chicago: "Victor
Gensini, a meteorology professor at the College of DuPage outside
Chicago, found a link between tornado activity in the United States and
complicated atmospheric wave patterns that shift every 40 to 60 days.
The pattern is dependable enough that last year he used it to predict
overall tornado activity in the nation - and was right 10 out of 15
times. Now, Gensini has predicted higher than normal tornado activity
from Sunday through March 19. Normally, there are about 14 or 15
tornadoes a week this time of year, but the forecasters predict at least
22, and likely more..." (Image credit: abc7chicago.com).
El Nino's Parade of "Atmospheric River Storms" is Finally Coming to California.
Northern California has seen significant rains this winter; far less
over SoCal. That will change in the next week or so with some 4-8"
amounts possible, especially northern counties. Here's an excerpt at Mashable: "...To
get a sense of how much moisture such air currents transport, consider
that a strong atmospheric river can carry an amount of atmospheric water
vapor about equal to 7.5 to 15 times the average flow of liquid water
at the mouth of the Mississippi River, NOAA scientists have found. To
improve their understanding of these phenomena, NOAA and NASA, along
with academic research institutions, are flying aircraft and gathering
observations on the ground to study the ongoing El Niño and its impacts..." )GFS 10-day accumulated rainfall source: NOAA and AerisWeather).
February: 6th Month in a Row of Warmer Than Average Temperatures. Here's an update from HydroClim Minnesota at the Minnesota DNR: "Average monthly temperatures for February
were above historical averages at nearly all Minnesota reporting
stations. It was Minnesota's sixth consecutive month of above-normal
monthly temperatures. Extremes for February ranged from a high of 65
degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) on the 27th, to a low of
-36 degrees F at Embarrass (St. Louis County) on the 14th. Temperatures
climbed into the 50s and low 60s across Minnesota on February 27,
breaking several maximum temperature records for the date..."
April Fire Risk?
Not just for Minnesota but most of the Midwest and Mid South. Until
spring green up and (consistent/heavy) rains conditions may be ripe for
brushfires, statewide, according to the National Interagency Fire
Center.
Texas Had Its Most Tornadic Year on Record in 2015. The Weather Channel has details: "A
new study has revealed that 2015 was the most tornadic year the state
of Texas has seen since meteorologists began keeping records in 1950. A
total of 240 tornadoes touched down
during the calendar year, topping 1967 and 1995, when 232 twisters were
reported, according to the Insurance Council of Texas (ICT). This is
only the fourth year since 1950 that the Lone Star State had at least
200 tornadoes in progress..."
Hell and High Water. ProPublic and the Texas Tribune
have a remarkable (and visual) story focused on how Houston dodged a
bullet with Ike; at some point the law of averages will catch up and a
devastating hurricane will push into Galveston and Houston. Is the city
ready? Here's an excerpt: "They called Ike “the monster
hurricane.” Hundreds of miles wide. Winds at more than 100 mph. And —
deadliest of all — the power to push a massive wall of water into the
upper Texas coast, killing thousands and shutting down a major
international port and industrial hub. That was what scientists, public
officials, economists and weather forecasters thought they were dealing
with on Sept. 11, 2008, as Hurricane Ike barreled toward Houston, the
fourth-largest city in the United States and home to its largest
refining and petrochemical complex. And so at 8:19 p.m., the National
Weather Service issued an unusually dire warning.
“ALL
NEIGHBORHOODS, AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES, WILL BE
INUNDATED,” the alert read. “PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN
SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH.”
Image credit above: "Flood levels in top chart taken at Kemah Boardwalk".
| Sources: NOAA/GOES, USGS/NASA Landsat, SSPEED Center at Rice
University, University of Texas Institute for Computational Engineering
and Sciences, University of Houston Dept. of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Texas A&M Galveston Institute for Sustainable Coastal
Communities, Jackson State University/Coastal Hazards Center, Harris
County Appraisal District, U.S. Census.
Rising Seas Pull Fort Lauderdale, Florida's Building Boomtown, Toward a Bust. Alarmist hype? If so I have a water-front home in Ft. Lauderdale I'd like to sell you. Here's an excerpt from InsideClimate News: "...But
as the coastal city's skyline climbs upward, Fort Lauderdale—nicknamed
the Venice of America for its 165 miles of canals—is slowly becoming an
edifice of risk as climate change lays siege to its shores. Already,
water regularly creeps over sea walls, lapping against foundations every
few weeks. When the earth, moon and sun align to drive waters as much
as 18 inches above normal, the resulting King Tides inundate whole
streets and neighborhoods. The city is racing to put climate resiliency
measures in place, but they face a nearly impossible foe. Mayor Seiler
and his city typify the imminent risks much of South Florida faces from
global warming..."
Record High Number of Tornadoes Hit Southeast in February. WXshift has more details: "February
was an unusually stormy month across the Southeast, with 53 tornadoes
touching down across six states — the most for any February since 1950 —
destroying homes and businesses and claiming several lives. One factor
fueling the spate of storms has been the strong El Niño that is altering weather patterns
around the globe. El Niño is defined by an eastward shift of warm ocean
waters in the tropical Pacific. That shift alters where heat from those
waters is released into the atmosphere, which in turn knocks
circulation patterns out of whack, creating a cascade around the planet.
Over the U.S., it tends to amp up the subtropical jet stream and shunt
it southward over the southern tier of the country. This leads to
greater odds for tornadoes right along the Gulf Coast, with the strongest signal in Florida..."
Supreme Court Backs EPA This Time, Refuses to Block Controls on Toxic Mercury. Here's the intro to a Washington Post story: "A
month after it hobbled the Obama administration’s signature regulation
on climate change, the Supreme Court declined Thursday to block a
different air-pollution rule that seeks to cut toxic emissions from the
nation’s power plants. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. rejected a
request to stay the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards rule, adopted by the
Environmental Protection Agency three years ago to tighten restrictions
on a class of harmful pollutants that are byproducts of burning coal..."
Photo credit above: "The coal-fired Jim Bridger Plant outside Point of the Rocks, Wyo., in 2014." (Jim Urquhart/Reuters).
Five Energy Firms Score Contracts for Twin Cities Government Solar Garden Projects. The Star Tribune reports: "Five
energy companies have won contracts to build large, community solar
projects to offset a share of the electricity used by 30 Twin Cities
public agencies and local governments, including Minneapolis. Under the
terms of the deals, released this week, a mix of national and
Minnesota-based energy companies — BHE Renewables, SolarStone Partners,
SunShare, TruNorth Solar and U.S. Solar Corp. — will finance, construct
and operate the separate solar projects, which will be built on private
land. It is the first time that government agencies in Minnesota have
joined to seek competitive bids for solar — an effort led by the
Metropolitan Council, a regional agency that is relying on solar to help
power its wastewater treatment plants and transit operations..."
Photo credit above: Innovative Solar Systems. "The firms will build solar projects to offset some electricity used by local governments."
U.S. Agency Reaches Holy Grail of Battery Storage Sought by Elon Musk and Gates.
More breakthroughs in clean, renewable, sustainable energy? Count on
it, from industry and government research efforts. Here's a clip at The Guardian: "A
US government agency says it has attained the “holy grail” of energy –
the next-generation system of battery storage, that has has been hotly
pursued by the likes of Bill Gates and Elon Musk. Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (Arpa-E) – a branch of the Department of Energy
– says it achieved its breakthrough technology in seven years. Ellen
Williams, Arpa-E’s director, said: “I think we have reached some holy
grails in batteries – just in the sense of demonstrating that we can
create a totally new approach to battery technology, make it work, make
it commercially viable, and get it out there to let it do its thing...”
Photo credit: "Dr. Ellen Williams (right), Arpa-E director: ‘We want power to be easy.’ Photograph: ARPA-E.
U.S. Energy Storage Market Grew by 243% in 2015, Largest Year on Record.
Renewables can be fickle; the sun doesn't always shine, the wind
doesn't always blow - how do you even out supply and demand? That's
where energy storage comes in; big, next-generation batteries. Greentech Media has details: "The
U.S. energy storage market just had both its best quarter and best year
of all time. According to the GTM Research/Energy Storage Association’s
U.S. Energy Storage Monitor 2015 Year in Review,
the U.S. deployed 112 megawatts of energy storage capacity in the
fourth quarter of 2015, bringing the annual total to 221 megawatts. This
represents 161 megawatt-hours for the year. The 112 megawatts deployed
in the fourth quarter 2015 represented more than the total of all
storage deployments in 2013 and 2014 combined. Propelled by that
historic quarter, the U.S. energy storage market grew 243 percent over
2014’s 65 megawatts (86 megawatt-hours)..." Almost 100 Million Homes May Run Only on Solar by 2020. Bloomberg Business has the story - here's a link and excerpt: "Almost
100 million households worldwide may be powered by solar panels by
2020, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The off-grid solar
market has grown to $700 million now from non-existent less than a
decade ago, according to a report
Thursday from the London-based research company and the World Bank
Group’s Lighting Global. They expect that to swell to $3.1 billion by
the end of the decade..."
Photo credit above: "Workers secure solar panels to a rooftop in Albuquerque, New Mexico." Photographer: Sergio Flores/Bloomberg. Solar Fight Turns to Presidential-Style Bare-Knuckle Campaign Tactics. Fading industries are doing anything to maintain market share; here are a few mind-boggling examples in an Op-Ed at Utility Dive: "It’s the time of the presidential campaign cycle where some of thedirtiest political tricks
in the country are covered daily in the news. But this type of
campaigning isn’t limited to the presidential race. Some utilities
across the country have been using similar tactics for years in their
attempts to eliminate rooftop solar competition. A few of their
startling tactics: In Arizona, a political group supported by APS ran attack ads in 2013 suggesting that net metering prevents parents from affording toys for their children. Another ad from the same group compared rooftop solar companies to middle-aged men stealing ice cream sprinkles from children..."
B.C. Premier Helps Broker Deal on Carbon "Tax".
Canada is beating us to the punch. British Columbia has already priced
carbon and their economy is booming. Here's an excerpt from The Vancouver Sun: "With
B.C. Premier Christy Clark playing a peacemaker role, Canada’s divided
first ministers struck a compromise “Vancouver Accord” on Thursday that
is intended to get Canada on the road to sharply reduced carbon
emissions by 2030. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his provincial and
territorial counterparts agreed to a “suite” of tools, from public
transit investment to green technology, aimed at reducing emissions. But
their commitment on the biggest ticket item, and by far the most
troublesome and divisive matter, was far from clear..."
Photo credit above: "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addresses a news conference following the First Ministers Meeting in Vancouver." Photograph by: JONATHAN HAYWARD , The Canadian Press.
A Plan In Case Robots Take the Jobs: Give Everyone a Paycheck.
Why is there so much unsease and anger out there? Globalization,
automation, computerization, jobs being done by robotics that were done
by hand 10 years ago. The cycle of disruption is happening faster.
Suddenly there's no such thing as a "job for life". Here's a clip from The New York Times: "Let’s
say computers come for most of our jobs. This may not seem likely at
the moment; computer scientists and economists offer wildly varying
ideas for how deeply automation will affect future employment.
But for the sake of argument, imagine that within two or three decades
we’ll have morphed into the Robotic States of America. In Robot America,
most manual laborers will have been replaced by herculean bots.
Truck drivers, cabbies, delivery workers and airline pilots will have
been superseded by vehicles that do it all. Doctors, lawyers, business
executives and even technology columnists for The New York Times will
have seen their ranks thinned by charming, attractive, all-knowing
algorithms..."
Sail (Far) Away: At Sea with America's Largest Floating Gathering of Conspiracy Theorists.
Well this sounds like quite a vacation. I'm amazed they don't just
float right off the edge of the (flat) Earth. Here's an excerpt at Jezebel: "...Morton is a radio host, among other things. Here he was claimed to be one of the lead organizers of Conspira Sea,
the first annual sea cruise for conspiracy theorists. While the ship
looped from San Pedro to Cabo San Lucas and back, some 100 of its
passengers and I would be focused on uncharted waters, where nothing is
as it seems. Before we docked again, two of them would end up following
me around the ship, convinced I was a CIA plant..."
World's Longest Filibuster Ends After 192 Hours of Orwell and Internet Comments. That's a lot of babbling. Atlas Obscura has details; here's an excerpt: "A
legislative filibuster lasting 192 hours, a new world record, has ended
in South Korea, likely allowing the passage of a law that opposition
leaders said would intrude on individual privacy. The filibuster began
over a week ago, on February 23rd, and was led by South Korea’s main
opposition party, Minjoo, according to the BBC.
One legislator spoke for over 11 hours, while others were seen dozing
off during the filibuster, which was intended to last until March 10th,
when the legislative term was set to end..."
Photo credit above: "South Korean President Park Geun-hye". (Photo: Jeon Han/CC BY-SA 2.0)
Our Hemisphere's Temperatures Just Reached a Terrifying Milestone. So says meteorologist Eric Holthaus at Slate; here's a link and excerpt: "Since
this post was originally published, the heat wave has continued. As of
Thursday morning, it appears that average temperatures across the
Northern Hemisphere have breached the 2 degrees Celsius above “normal”
mark for the first time in recorded history, and likely the first time since human civilization began thousands of years ago. That mark has long been held (somewhat arbitrarily) as the point above which climate change may begin to become "dangerous"
to humanity. It's now arrived—though very briefly—much more quickly
than anticipated. This is a milestone moment for our species. Climate
change deserves our greatest possible attention..."
Image credit above: "A
daily analysis of global temperatures shows that the Northern
Hemisphere likely exceeded 2 degree Celsius above "normal" levels on
March 3, 2016." Ryan Maue/Weatherbell Analytics.
Revamped Satellite Data Shows No Pause in Global Warming. Here's an excerpt from ABC News: "Climate
change doubters may have lost one of their key talking points: a
particular satellite temperature dataset that had seemed to show no
warming for the past 18 years. The Remote Sensing System temperature
data, promoted by many who reject mainstream climate science and
especially most recently by Sen. Ted Cruz,
now shows a slight warming of about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit since 1998.
Ground temperature measurements, which many scientists call more
accurate, all show warming in the past 18 years. "There are people that
like to claim there was no warming; they really can't claim that
anymore," said Carl Mears, the scientist who runs the Remote Sensing
System temperature data tracking..."
Oil and Gas Industry Has Pumped Millions into Republican Campaigns. When in doubt (about the source of perpetual denial) follow the money. Here's an excerpt at The Guardian: "Fossil
fuel millionaires collectively pumped more than $100m into Republican
presidential contenders’ efforts last year – in an unprecedented
investment by the oil and gas industry in the party’s future. About one
in three dollars donated to Republican hopefuls from mega-rich
individuals came from people who owe their fortunes to fossil fuels –
and who stand to lose the most in the fight against climate change. The
scale of investment by fossil fuel interests in presidential Super Pacs reached about $107m last year – before any votes were cast in the Republican primary season..." Intense Heatwaves Could Become "Annual Events" by 2075. Climate Home has the analysis; here's the intro: "Heatwaves
that used to arrive once every 20 years or so could become annual
events by 2075 across almost two-thirds of the planet’s land surface –
if humans go on burning ever more fossil fuels and releasing ever more
greenhouse gases. Claudia Tebaldi, visiting scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research, and Michael Wehner, senior staff scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, report in Climatic Change journal that stringent emissions reductions could reduce the risk of such extreme heat events.
But, even so, by 2075, an estimated 18% of the Earth’s surface could
still experience those once-rare extreme heat events every year..."
Photo credit above: Frank Neulichedl/Flickr.
Climate Change is a Potent Element in the Deadly Brew of Disaster Risk.The Guardian takes a look at how a warming (more volatile) climate impacts disaster readiness: "...Climate change is an increasingly potent element in the deadly brew of disaster risk. Already, at least 90% of disasters linked to natural hazards are climate related. Last year, thousands of people died from heatwaves in Europe and Asia, and droughts and floods – including those exacerbated by normal climate variability, such as the current strong El Niño phenomenon
– are increasing. Rising sea levels and warmer sea-surface temperatures
result in greater moisture in the air and contribute to more intense
cyclone and typhoon seasons. This was observed last year in the Indian
and Pacific Oceans: Mexico was hit by the strongest cyclone ever to make landfall, and Vanuatu and other south Pacific nations were pummelled by a category five storm..." Why We Need to Stop Fake Claims that Global Warming Paused. Here's an excerpt of an article from climate scientist Michael Mann at New Scientist: "...What
the deniers fail to disclose is that there is sufficient variation in
the details drawn on by studies of the period – including which version
of the temperature record is used and precisely what time intervals are
being compared – that different researchers can come to different
honestly held conclusions about what the data show. Respectable news outlets have accurately noted that. And there is broad consensus among all the researchers involved on key points. First, there was no pause in global warming. Indeed, I have mocked
such a notion as the “faux pause”. There was at most a temporary
slowdown. With the record-setting temperatures of the past two years,
that slowdown is almost certainly over now..."
Climate Change in the Levant: Further Evidence Strengthens Case for Role in Syrian Instability. An article at The Center for Climate and Security got my attention; here's the intro: "A new study
provides the strongest evidence to date that the drying of the eastern
Mediterranean Levant region over recent decades is very likely the
result of human influence on the Earth’s climate system. This research
uses tree-ring data in the Old World Drought Atlas
to better characterize year-to-year and decade-to-decade natural
rainfall variability over the greater Mediterranean basin. The authors,
led by Ben Cook, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies and the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia
University in New York City, conclude with high confidence that the
recent extended drought in the Levant is well outside the range of
natural variability over the last 900 years. The recent drying trend as
measured by the tree rings is very much in agreement with not only
measurements of rainfall using station data and satellites but also with
simulations from global climate models that use the known increases in
greenhouse gases during the observed record..."
Image credit:
"For January 2012, brown shades show the decrease in water storage from
the 2002-2015 average in the Mediterranean region. Units in
centimeters. The data is from the Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment, or GRACE, satellites, a joint mission of NASA and the German
space agency."
Credit: NASA/ Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio. Details at the American Geophysical Union. Climate Scientists Worry About the Costs of Sea Level Rise. Here's an excerpt of a post at The Guardian from University of St. Thomas climate scientist John Abraham: "...A paper
was just published by Drs. Boettle, Rybski and Kropp that dealt with
this question. The authors of this study note that if you are concerned
about societal and economic costs, the rate of sea rise isn’t the entire
story. Much of the damage is caused by extreme events that are
superimposed on a rising ocean. Damage is highly nonlinear with sea
rise. To explain this, let’s think about flooding. Consider a river that
has a dike system capable of confining a rise of water up to six feet.
Such a system would have little or no economic/societal damage for
“floods” up to six feet, but just one more foot of water rise would put
the waters over the dike and could cause significant losses..."
Photo credit above: "The
remnants of the Jet Star roller coaster is pictured in the ocean,
almost five months after Superstorm Sandy, in Seaside Heights, New
Jersey March 21, 2013." Photograph: Lucas Jackson/REUTERS.
How Climate Change May Affect Your Diet. TIME has the story; here's the intro: "Climate
change’s effects on global food supply could lead to more than 500,000
deaths by 2050 as people around the world lose access to good nutrition,
according to new research. The study, published in the journal The Lancet, builds on previous research
that has shown how droughts, floods and other weather events linked to
climate change hurt global crop yields. But climate change will lead to a
less healthy diet composition in addition to making food less available
overall. In fact, people will be twice as likely to die from issues
linked to climate-related poor diet than from undernutrition, according
to the first-of-its-kind study..."
More details and a link to the new research at The Lancet. Photo credit: Tim McCabe, USDA.
Justice Department Refers Exxon Investigation Request to FBI. InsideClimate News has more details: "The
U.S. Justice Department has forwarded a request from two congressmen
seeking a federal probe of ExxonMobil to the FBI's criminal division. U.S. Representatives Ted Lieu and Mark
DeSaulnier sought the probe last year to determine whether the oil
giant violated federal laws by "failing to disclose truthful
information" about climate change.
In response, the Justice Department deferred to the FBI, saying it is
that agency's responsibility to conduct an initial assessment of facts
that prompted the congressmen's request. Such action is considered
standard procedure, according to former federal prosecutors who say the
response appears ambiguous as to what action may be taken by the FBI..."
Photo credit: "California
Rep. Ted Lieu, along with fellow Democrat Rep. Mark DeSaulnier, issued
the request that the Justice Department investigate Exxon for its
climate research and denial."
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