76 F. average high on September 5.
81 F. high on September 5, 2016.
September 6, 1977: An early morning thunderstorm drops 2 inch hail in McLeod County.
September 6, 1922: A heat wave over Minnesota brings highs over 100 to southwest Minnesota. One of the hot spots is New Ulm with 105.
Trouble-free Weather for Minnesota. Irma Threatens Caribbean and Florida
Like so many Minnesotans we love Florida. In February it's a refuge, a balm for the senses. A reason to keep on plodding through the slush. What's not to like? It's a palm tree paradise, except for a few days in late summer and autumn, when it's Hell On Earth.
My Florida friends say "You have blizzards and crippling cold - don't talk to me about hurricanes!" But cold, snow and ice doesn't take my roof off, or require assistance from FEMA.
In a warming climate a slow-motion retreat from rising seas is inevitable. Major hurricane strikes may accelerate the exodus away from the water.
Irma is the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, and it will leave behind a trail of destruction from the Virgin Islands to Florida. If you have friends or family in the Sunshine State ask them them to gas up their car and pay attention. When authorities say go - listen.
Minnesota's weather looks quiet and dry. I don't see any rain for the next 7-8 days, just a gradual warming trend. 80s return much of next week as summer returns.
Sweatshirts and shorts? Looks like a typical September to me.
HWRF Solution. This is from the 18z run on Tuesday, so look for changes in track and intensity. NOAA's dedicated hurricane model is more in line with yesterday's ECMWF (European) model, suggesting a slightly later northward turn than other NOAA models. Loop: Tropicaltidbits.com.
Extreme Hurricane.
This enhanced IR satellite image, from (non-operational) GOES-16 was
snapped Tuesday afternoon, as sustained winds in Irma's eyewall were
clocked at 185 mph. Image: AerisWeather.
Hurricane Irma, Most Powerful Storm to Hit Atlantic Proper, Measures Like an Earthquake. Already showing up on seismometers in Florida? Newsweek reports: "...As the hurricane rapidly approaches Florida, the local Kissimmee Utility Authority
reported Tuesday that Irma was registering on seismometers, a device
reserved for measuring earthquakes, in the Caribbean. Florida Governor
Rick Scott declared a state of emergency Tuesday in all 67 counties and
said he had summoned all 7,000 of the state's National Guards to standby
Friday for assistance. He also said Tuesday he had rescinded all weight
and driver restrictions on Florida's roads so supplies could be more
easily transported throughout the state..."
Praedictix Intermediate Update: Issued Tuesday evening, September 5, 2017.
By
now I'm sure you've heard the news that "Irma" is the strongest
Atlantic hurricane on record; 185 mph sustained winds at last report,
about to plow into Barbuda, Antigua and the Virgin Islands. It's a
sprawling Category 5 storm, more powerful than Katrina in 2005, and
considerably larger in size than Andrew, which hit south of Miami in
1992 as a rare Category 5. Image credit: Aeris AMP.
Timing Tropical Storm Force Winds.
Sustained winds reach tropical storm force late Friday night across
South Florida, which means that we really have 3 full days to prepare
facilities from Miami and Ft. Lauderdale to Naples, Sarasota and Tampa.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect across the Florida Keys, and Miami
begins evacuations tomorrow, including Miami Beach and flood-prone
neighborhoods.
NOAA Model Tracks.
NOAA's models continue to forecast a greater risk for the Atlantic
coastline of Florida, from Miami to West Palm and Jacksonville, with the
storm slowly losing strength as it grinds up the eastern shoreline of
the Sunshine State. This implies major damage for Miami and Ft.
Lauderdale, but there is still lingering uncertainty with this solution.
Models are in good agreement for the next 3 days, but precisely when
Irma takes the turn to the north will determine whether the main risk is
Miami, or Naples-Ft. Myers-Tampa. It's still too early to make that
call tonight.
HWRF Solution.
This is NOAA's dedicated hurricane model, the HWRF, which shows a
severe/catastrophic hurricane over the Florida Keys Sunday morning, with
the center of the storm passing over the Everglades, creating major
storm surge problems from the Keys to Miami and Naples. Unlike Harvey,
we don't expect Irma to stall for an extended period of time. We won't
see 30-50" rainfall amounts with this system. The primary risk is storm surge flooding and wind damage, concentrated along the coastline of South Florida by Sunday and Monday. (Image credit: WeatherBell).
European Solution.
You may recall the ECMWF did a much better job with Sandy in 2012, and
this time around the "Euro" is still hinting at a track up the west/Gulf
coast of Florida, a greater risk to Naples, Sarasota and Tampa/St. Pete
from Sunday to Monday, which is the most hurricane-prone metro area in
America, the city most vulnerable to severe storm surge flooding. Model
credit: WSI.
- High confidence that damage will be severe/catastrophic from Montserrat and Antigua to the Virgin Islands and northern coast of Puerto Rico.
- Medium confidence that damage will be extensive across south Florida in a Saturday night through Monday time frame.
- Low confidence of the final track, and whether the east/Atlantic or west/Gulf coast will receive the worst of Irma.
I
would be accelerating contingency plans today and be prepared to move
staff away from coastal areas close to sea level no later than Friday.
By Saturday tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will make
last-minute evacuations difficult, if not impossible. More briefings and
updates on Wednesday. Don't hesitate to reach out with questions. Good
luck.
- Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, Praedictix Weather
Hurricane Checklist.
Here's an excerpt of a story from CBS Miami outlining what Floridians
should have ready to go, just in case the evacuation order comes: "The National Hurricane Center suggests the following materials:
Water: At least 1 gallon of water per person/ animal per day for at least 3 days.
Food: At least a 3-day supply of non-perishable food.
Radio: A battery-powered radio with NOAA weather radio tone alert and extra batteries.
Flashlight: Make sure you have extra batteries as well.
First Aid Kit
Manual can opener: If the electricity is out, you would need some way to open your canned food.
Cellphone: Make sure you have extra battery packs or a solar charger to keep your phone on.
Prescription medications
Glasses
Cash
Important family documents: Make sure you have copies of insurance policies and some form of state issued ID.
Sturdy shoes: Think about pulling out those rain boots and sneakers.
Pet supplies: Your pets will need enough food and water to also weather out the storm with you.
If you have a generator, make sure you have propane. Also, try to top off your gas tank ahead of time, CBS Miami writes..."
Hurricane Apples and Oranges. The biggest difference between Harvey and Irma? The tropical remains of Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas for the better part of 5 days, unleashing a year's worth of rain on Houston. High level steering winds were light with Harvey, but that may not be the case with Hurricane Irma, which will brush Cuba before turning north. The $100 billion question is WHEN will the storm turn north? Tampa and Miami are both threatened by damaging winds and storm surge by Sunday. Both metro areas are among the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding in the nation. With rising seas Miami now floods on a clear day with a full moon. My hunch is wind and storm surge will be the biggest threats with Irma; latest models suggest Miami may take a direct hit from a major hurricane. I hope I'm wrong.
Hurricane Apples and Oranges. The biggest difference between Harvey and Irma? The tropical remains of Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas for the better part of 5 days, unleashing a year's worth of rain on Houston. High level steering winds were light with Harvey, but that may not be the case with Hurricane Irma, which will brush Cuba before turning north. The $100 billion question is WHEN will the storm turn north? Tampa and Miami are both threatened by damaging winds and storm surge by Sunday. Both metro areas are among the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding in the nation. With rising seas Miami now floods on a clear day with a full moon. My hunch is wind and storm surge will be the biggest threats with Irma; latest models suggest Miami may take a direct hit from a major hurricane. I hope I'm wrong.
Hurricane Harvey Was America's 10th Billion-Dollar Disaster So Far in 2017. The Guardian has details: "...From 1980 to 2016, according to Noaa records, the US experienced an average of five and a half $1bn-plus “weather and climate disasters” a year. From 2012 to 2016, that reached 10.6 such events a year. Many such events are increasing in intensity, the agency warns. Such increases are chiefly due to a combination of climate change and people spreading into vulnerable areas, especially coasts and floodplains. There is an element of chance in where catastrophic weather systems hit, but another important factor is growing prosperity: Americans have more property to be damaged when serious weather strikes..."
Photo credit: "People float belongings out of their flooded neighborhood in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, Houston, Texas, August 30." Photo: TANNEN MAURY/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.
What Exactly Made Harvey So Nasty? The Associated Press asks the rhetorical question. The fact that it sat over Texas for the better part of 4-5 days turned a disaster into a catastrophe: "...Harvey was the first to go from tropical storm strength to major hurricane strength in its last 36 hours before U.S. landfall,” Rappaport said. Then it just stuck around. For more than 130 hours — from 10 a.m. Friday, Aug. 25, through 10 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 30 — Harvey was raining over some part of eastern Texas. When Harvey did move, including a dip back into the Gulf of Mexico for about a day, it was still close enough to drench Texas. “It’s extremely rare to have a major hurricane that just sits there after it makes landfall,” McNoldy said. Usually strong storms blast through an area, dump a foot or so of rain, and move on. But Harvey was stuck between two high pressure weather systems to the east and west that kept pushing it in opposite directions, so it just staggered in a zig-zag pattern across southeast Texas..."
File photo: NASA International Space Station.
Above Devastated Houston, Armies of Drones Prove Their Worth. WIRED.com has details: "...Less than a week
after the last drops of Hurricane Harvey fell, Houston is just
beginning to assess the damage. At least 46 people have died. More than
30,000 houses are flooded and as many as a million vehicles waterlogged.
Early estimates suggest the hurricane has inflicted $120 billion in
damage on the region, making it the most expensive natural disaster in
the country’s history. “This is going to be a massive, massive cleanup
process,” Texas governor Greg Abbott told ABC’s Good Morning America
on Friday. “This is going to be a multiyear project for Texas to be
able to dig out of this catastrophe.” Which means the drones’ work has
just begun..."
Photo credit: "In this Aug. 31, 2017 file photo, Alejandra Castillo takes a break from carrying water-soaked items out of her family’s home after flood waters receded in Houston. Experts say Harvey’s filthy floodwaters pose significant dangers to human safety and the environment that will remain even after levels drop far enough that southeastern Texas residents no longer fear for their lives." (Charlie Riedel, File/Associated Press)
Development and Disasters - A Deadly Combination Well Beyond Houston. Demographic shifts and urbanization near the coast are huge factors - urban sprawl has made the disaster bulls-eye much bigger, and we continue to build in areas that are increasingly vulnerable to rising seas and extreme rains, argues a story at ProPublica: "...Indeed, the economic costs — which will include everything from thousands of ruined and uninsured homes to higher national gasoline prices to lost business activity in the country’s fourth-largest city — will take months to calculate, and years to overcome, said Kevin Simmons, an economist at Austin College focused on storm impacts. “In the Houston metro area alone, there is more than $325 billion in residential value at risk,” Simmons said in an interview. “Most damage to residential property will be flooding and if people don't have flood insurance they are on their own.” (Most don’t, in part because the floodwaters reached so far beyond established danger zones.) Add in damaged cars, commercial property, lost business and the damage outside of Houston, “The bottom line will likely exceed Katrina,” he said..."
Photo credit: "Residential neighborhoods in Houston, Texas near Interstate 10 sit in floodwater in the wake of Hurricane Harvey." (Marcus Yam/Los Angeles Times).
Photo credit: Julia Andrews, Houston Chronicle.
Harvey: A Storm Like No Other. Here's an excerpt of a story I wrote for EEN, The Evangelical Environmental Network: "...Then again Houston is no stranger to disruptive rains, having experienced three 500-year floods since 2015. Nationwide the National Weather Service counts 25 separate 500-year floods across the United States since 2010. It’s not your imagination: east of the Rockies the rain is falling harder and longer – wet areas are, in fact, trending wetter. Which is what climate models predicted 30 years ago. Jesus was explicit in Matthew 25:45. “Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.” Many of us will be able to move away from incessant heat, wildfires, persistent drought and flooding coastlines. The well-to-do will move, build higher walls and flee the worst of an increasingly noxious climate. But the poorest among us won’t have any of these options. They can’t just pick up and move. Their homes are often closer to sea level, more vulnerable to storm surges and inland flooding. In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey an estimated 70% of homeowners don’t have flood insurance, according to CoreLogic. The pain, disruption and dislocation of a rapidly-changing climate will be felt most by the world’s poor. That’s why climate volatility and weather disruption is emerging as the global civil rights struggle of the 21st century..."
Photo credit: "The best way to prepare for the future may be to prepare for change." Tim Cook.
As Robots Edge Into Workplace, Free Money Idea Takes Hold. But who is going to pay for it, the companies that displace (human) workers? Here's an excerpt from AP and Star Tribune: "Driverless
trucks. Factory robots. Delivery drones. Virtual personal assistants.
As technological innovations increasingly edge into the workplace, many
people fear that robots and machines are destined to take jobs that
human beings have held for decades. For many affected workers,
retraining might be out of reach —unavailable, unaffordable or
inadequate. What then? Enter the idea of a universal basic income, the
notion that everyone should be able to receive a stream of income to
live on, regardless of their employment or economic status. It isn't an
idea that seems likely to gain traction nationally in the current
political environment. But in some politically liberal corners of the
country, including Hawaii and the San Francisco Bay area, the idea of
distributing a guaranteed income has begun to gain support..."
Photo credit: "Mexican free-tailed bats sail through the night sky in Texas. People in that state can kill the animals if they're inside the house or on the roof." Photograph by Joel Sartore, National Geographic Creative.
TODAY: Partly sunny, breezy and cool. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 64
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear and cool. Low: 50
THURSDAY: Plenty of blue sky, milder. Winds: W 5-10. High: 71
FRIDAY: Lot's of sunshine, pleasant. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 53. High: 73
SATURDAY: Sunny skies, pretty spectacular. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 54. High: 76
SUNDAY: Hazy sun, feels like summer again. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: near 80
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still balmy. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 62. High: 82
TUESDAY: Sunny, still postcard-perfect. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 80
Climate Stories...
Global Warming May Have Made the Impact of Hurricane Harvey Worse. Financial Times explains: "First, surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are higher because of global warming and helped to fuel Harvey, which rapidly strengthened within 24 hours from a category 1 hurricane to category 4 before making landfall on August 25. Second, sea level rise increased the height of Harvey’s storm surge that flooded coastal areas of Texas and neighbouring states. Third, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, helping to make the rainfall from Harvey more intense. The main reason that Houston and surrounding areas suffered such catastrophic flooding was because Harvey unusually stalled as a tropical storm, and dumped rainfall over the same area for several days, rather than passing over. We do not know yet if climate change influenced the atmospheric conditions that caused Harvey’s slow movement..."
Photo credit: AP.
Denying Hurricane Harvey's Climate Links Only Worsens Future Suffering. I couldn't agree more. The Guardian connects the dots: "...Those who oppose climate policies will often argue that we can simply adapt to the consequences of human-caused climate change. Most recently, New York Times columnist Bret Stephens suggested that Harvey will just be a “speed bump” for Houston’s economy, and that the world should follow Houston’s example of “environmental resilience” by following “the path of its extraordinary economic growth.” The people in Texas suffering from having lost their homes and possessions probably aren’t comforted that Stephens considers Harvey a “speed bump” for the local economy (which coincidentally is probably not true). As renowned glaciologist Lonnie Thompson put it:
Global warming is here and is already affecting our climate, so prevention is no longer an option. Three options remain for dealing with the crisis: mitigate, adapt, and suffer.
Electric Cars and Renewables Not Enough to Meet Paris Climate Goal. Here's a snippet from Reuters: " The cost of electric vehicles (EVs) will fall to match those running on combustion engines by 2022, a key trigger that will mean by 2035 half of all passenger vehicles sold globally will be electric, according to the head of a top energy consultancy. But this expected exponential rise in cleaner vehicles, coupled with booming renewable energy production, will not be enough to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting climate warming, Ditlev Engel, chief executive of DNV GL’s energy consulting business, told Reuters in an interview. “The trends are very clear that the world is electrifying, renewables are taking up more space, we’re moving into a world of EVs, but we have to remember we are racing against the clock. It’s not enough...” (Photo: Triple Pundit).
California Heat Wave: How Much is From Climate Change. A warming climate is flavoring all weather now. Here's an excerpt from The Mercury News: "...The expectation has been that we are going to see more heat records, and that’s what we are seeing.” The number of heat records in recent years is startling. From 2000 to 2009, there were twice as many record daily high temperatures as daily record low temperatures in the United States, according to an analysis of hundreds of thousands of temperature records at 1,800 weather stations across the country done by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. So far in 2017, there have been nearly four times as many record hot days as record cold days. By 2050, at the current rates of warming, there are expected to be 20 times the number of heat records as cold records, the study found, and 50 times as many by 2100..."
Climate Anxiety Doesn't Have to Ruin Your Life. Here's How to Manage It. Some good advice from Grist: "...All of this is to say, dear reader, when you feel anxious and out of control in the face of a changing planet, choose the thing that you can do best and most effectively, and then don’t let others ruin your faith in it. I chose my thing — climate journalism. It is frequently horrible — thanks to the subject matter — and I feel anxious and powerless and sad regularly. (This summer, in particular, has seen a nonstop slew of ever-worse disasters that permanently changed lives and formerly familiar landscapes: from Hurricane Harvey to western wildfires that fill the sky with ash.) But when one piece of writing turns out even approximately as well as I wanted it to, it feels like I have taken one small but sure-footed step toward saving humanity. And that makes the next, inevitably faltering ones easier..."
Illustration credit: Grist / Amelia Bate.
Illustration credit: Paul Lacolley.
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