A Few Slushy Inches on Lawns - Mainly Wet Roads
This is how we thin the herd in Minnesota. So, do you REALLY want to live here? Let's see how your coping skills have evolved. It's worth remembering we don't get earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis or lava.
This is how we thin the herd in Minnesota. So, do you REALLY want to live here? Let's see how your coping skills have evolved. It's worth remembering we don't get earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis or lava.
According
to the local National Weather Service only 3 of the last 20 Octobers
have seen measurable snow, for a total of 3.5 inches. Some towns west of
the MSP metro will pick up 2-5 inch amounts today; mainly on lawns
& fields.
Ground
temperatures are still mild, so snow will melt on contact for a time.
And air temperatures above 32F will keep most roads wet until tonight,
when the mercury dips below freezing. A rain/snow mix could mean less
than an inch east of St. Paul, while far western suburbs of Minneapolis
pick up 2-4 inches of slushy fun.
Does
it mean this winter will be severe, Paul? Not necessarily. My hunch:
more snow and cold than last year, but probably not an extreme "polar
vortex" winter, similar to what we endured 4 years ago.
Any slush should be gone by Sunday as 40s return, but Halloween looks chilly and dry with Trick or Treat temperatures near 40F.
European Solution.
ECMWF guidance is similar to NOAA's models, showing the heaviest snow
bands setting up over the western suburbs of the Twin Cities, as much as
5" from St. Cloud to Brainerd, maybe 8-10" for the North Shore. There
will be some melting with relatively warm ground temperatures, but a
plowable snow is expected for parts of central and northern Minnesota.
Map: WeatherBell.
GFS Solution. NOAA's Global Forecast System prints out some 2" amounts across the metro, closer to 4" toward Willmar and Alexandria.
November Comes Early.
Temperatures run 10-15F colder than average into the first week of
November; readings more typical of Thanksgiving than Halloween. ECMWF
guidance for the Twin Cities: WeatherBell.
Minnesota: Relatively Safe from Natural Disasters. GoMN reports on a little bit of good news: "The
forest fires in California and the devastating hurricanes that hit
Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico have cost billions of dollars in damage
and put natural disaster preparation back in the spotlight. But Twin
Citians at least can sleep easy, as they live in one of the metro areas
least at risk from natural disasters. That's the finding of ranking website Sperling's Best Places,
which identified the Top 10 Safest Cities from disasters like
tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding and earthquakes. Sperling's analysis
weighed eight risk factors by severity and frequency of the threat, with
tornadoes and hurricanes considered the biggest threat, followed by
flooding and earthquakes, then drought, hail, wind and wildfires. The
Twin Cities ranked 7th safest on the list, which was topped by Portland,
Seattle and Salt Lake City..."
Map credit: Sperling's Best Places.
Deep Impact of Flood Insurance. A post at Realtor Magazine caught my eye: "...Unfortunately, large numbers of uninsured Houston-area residents, as well as those in Florida, Puerto Rico, and other devastated areas, are facing bleak prospects for repairing or rebuilding their homes. Especially vulnerable are those who reside in areas outside of designated flood zones, which are increasingly affected by extreme weather. Stronger storms are bringing more widespread devastation, yet a long-term reauthorization of the NFIP remains in limbo. In September, Congress extended the program, which provides flood insurance policies to 5 million property owners, through Dec. 8. But such a short-term fix gives little certainty to owners who may lose access to any insurance option if the NFIP lapses. A growing number of private insurers are offering flood policies, but not in every state..."
Map credit: Sperling's Best Places.
Deep Impact of Flood Insurance. A post at Realtor Magazine caught my eye: "...Unfortunately, large numbers of uninsured Houston-area residents, as well as those in Florida, Puerto Rico, and other devastated areas, are facing bleak prospects for repairing or rebuilding their homes. Especially vulnerable are those who reside in areas outside of designated flood zones, which are increasingly affected by extreme weather. Stronger storms are bringing more widespread devastation, yet a long-term reauthorization of the NFIP remains in limbo. In September, Congress extended the program, which provides flood insurance policies to 5 million property owners, through Dec. 8. But such a short-term fix gives little certainty to owners who may lose access to any insurance option if the NFIP lapses. A growing number of private insurers are offering flood policies, but not in every state..."
Map credit: Natural Resources Defense Council.
Report: Drought is "Misery in Slow Motion": From Climate Nexus Hot News: "Worldwide droughts destroy enough food crops to feed 81 million people each day for a year, according to new research. A new report from the World Food Bank calls droughts "misery in slow motion," finding that deadly droughts are four times more costly for economies than floods. The report also lists several examples of the devastating impacts of drought, including increased deforestation as farmers expand crop area and fewer opportunities and more health problems for women born during drought. Climate change helps to drive several factors that can lead to severe drought. "This is not a problem for the future -- it's a problem for the here and now." lead author Richard Damania told CBS." (The Guardian, CBS, Thomson Reuters Foundation. Background: Climate Signals on drought risk)
File photo: Associated Press.
Hurricane Season 2017: "What Just Happened?" Here's an excerpt of a good summary at Grist: "...Since
the beginning of the season, Klotzbach has been obsessively keeping
track of the storms in a way, he says, that straddles the line of work
and hobby. And he’s compiled a lot of records. Here are a few, by his
count, as of October 15:
- 2017 ranks among the highest in terms of number of major hurricanes, with six achieving Category 3 (111-plus mph winds) or higher. The record since record-keeping began in 1851 is seven. (Though keep in mind we’ve only been tracking hurricanes with satellites since the 1970s, so the early records likely aren’t very comprehensive.)
- 2017 had 19.25 days with a major named storm in the Atlantic, the sixth-highest number of such days.
- 2017 is the seventh highest for accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic.
- Here’s the entire record sheet compiled by Klotzbach..."
Graphic credit: Philip Klotzbach.
Down Hundreds of Staff, Weather Service "Teetering on the Brink of Failure", Labor Union Says. The Capital Weather Gang has the post: "After the onslaught of devastating hurricanes and wildfires, the United States is enduring one of its most costly years for extreme weather. A near-record 16 separate billion-dollar weather disasters have ravaged the nation. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service workforce is spread razor thin, with hundreds of vacant forecast positions. The National Weather Service Employees Organization, its labor union, said the lack of staff is taking a toll on forecasting operations and that the agency is “for the first time in its history teetering on the brink of failure.” Managers are being forced to scale back certain operations, and staff are stressed and overworked. “It’s gotten so bad that we’re not going to be able to provide service that two years ago we were able to provide to public, emergency managers and media,” said Dan Sobien, the president of the union. “We’ve never been in that position before...”
How Trump is Crippling Storm Forecasting Just When It's Getting Good. New times and an apparent uptick in extreme weather events calls for new techniques and technologies just to keep up, argues Eric Holthaus at Rolling Stone: "...The president's budget proposal would slash the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's budget by 16 percent, including 6 percent from the National Weather Service. Besides hampering climate research, the cuts would jeopardize satellite programs and other forecasting tools – as well as threaten the jobs of forecasters themselves. And they may undermine bipartisan legislation Trump himself signed earlier this year that mandates key steps to improve the nation's ability to predict disasters before they happen. It's hard to overstate how backward that seems after the hurricane season we've just witnessed, as well as the deadly wildfires in California, the climate-charged droughts and deluges and, well, you name it. Just when we need forecasting to be better than ever – and need our forecasters to be able to go even further, using those predictions in ways that protect people's lives and livelihoods – the Trump administration wants to cut back?..."
Hurricane Harvey file photo: NASA's International Space Station.
Atlantic Hurricanes Wipe Out Reinsurers' Profits in Europe. The New York Times reports.
Photo credit: Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune.
Forest Fires Stoke Record Loss in World Tree Cover: Monitor. Reuters has the details: "Forest
fires in Brazil and Indonesia contributed to a record loss in global
tree cover in 2016, equivalent to the size of New Zealand, that could
accelerate deforestation blamed for climate change, an independent
forest monitoring network said on Monday. Man-made global warming
increased the risks of wildfires by adding to extreme heat and droughts
in some regions, according to Global Forest Watch (GFW). This year,
California and Portugal have been among places suffering deadly blazes.
The combination of forest fires with land use change and climate change
could speed destruction in areas like the Amazon and contribute to
emissions of carbon dioxide, one of the gases that contribute to global
warming, the report said..."
File photo credit: "Police
and a fire fighter from a local forestry company try to extinguish a
forest fire in the village in Rokan Hulu regency, Riau province,
Sumatra, Indonesia August 28, 2016 in this photo taken by Antara Foto.
Picture taken August 28, 2016." Antara Foto/Rony Muharrman/via REUTERS.
Xcel Energy Adding 175 New Wind Turbines. Associated Press picks up the story: "Xcel Energy is adding to its wind power. The utility company is partnering with Wanzek Construction of West Fargo to build a wind farm in Dickey County and another in Iowa with some turbines located in Minnesota. Construction of the Foxtail Wind Farm in Dickey County is planned for 2018. The Freeborn Wind Farm, mainly in Iowa, will begin construction in 2020. The 175 wind turbines together will deliver 350 megawatts of power. KVRR-TV reports Xcel Energy hopes to build and acquire 1,850 megawatts of new wind energy in the Upper Midwest by 2022..."
File image: Star Tribune.
Image credit: "An artist’s rendition of the Lunar Prospector orbiter." NASA/Public Domain
Busted....
58 F. maximum temperature yesterday in the Twin Cities.
53 F. average high on October 26.
46 F. high on October 26, 2016.
October 27, 1943: Residents would describe this event as 'one of the worst fogs in the Twin Cities in memory'. A very dense area of fog blanketed the area. In the thickest fog, street lights could not be seen 25 yards away. Drivers refused to cross unmarked railroad crossings and traffic was brought to a standstill.
October 27, 1931: An intense area of low pressure moves into the Duluth area. The barometer falls to 29.02 inches.
TODAY: Mix changes to mostly snow. Couple slushy inches expected, less east metro. 2-5" possible far western metro into central Minnesota. Winds: N 15-30. High: 38
FRIDAY NIGHT: Flurries taper; many wet roads will become icy. Low: 28
SATURDAY: Slick start? Partly sunny, drying out. Winds: NW 8-13. High: near 40
SUNDAY: Milder with increasing clouds. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High: 46
MONDAY: Colder wind, few flakes. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: near 40
TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, a chilly (but dry) Halloween expected. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 29. High: 42
WEDNESDAY: Light rain or mix possible. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 31. High: 44
THURSDAY: Flurries taper, feels like November. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 41
Climate Stories...
September 24 Hurricane Maria file image: Praedictix and AerisWeather.
Rising Seas Are Flooding Virginia's Naval Base, and There's No Plan to Fix It. Seas are warming and rising; that's not a climate model, but based on actual observations. InsideClimate News explains the challenges the U.S. Navy is facing: "...Once
or twice a month, seawater subsumes steam lines that run along the
bottom of the piers where the fleet's ships are moored. It bubbles up
through storm drains and closes roads. "It can actually shut down
operations, or make it very difficult for people to get around,"
Bouchard said.
Climate change poses an immediate threat to Norfolk. The seas are
rising at twice the global average here, due to ocean currents and
geology. Yet while the region is home to the densest collection of
military facilities in the nation, the Pentagon has barely begun the
hard work of adaptation. A detailed study in 2014 by the U.S. Army
Engineer Research and Development Center identified about 1.5 feet of sea level rise
as a "tipping point" for the base that would dramatically increase the
risk of serious damage to infrastructure. But there is no plan to
address this level of rise, which scientists expect within a few
decades. The city of Norfolk, which surrounds the base, is also under siege.
Sections of the main road that leads to the base become impassable
several times a year. Some residents check tide charts before leaving
for work or parking their cars for the night..."
Photo credit: "The
water was a foot and a half lower when the naval station was
established at Norfolk. Today, parts of the base are close to sea level." Credit: U.S. Navy.
Photo credit: "Joseph Leader, the vice president of the New York MTA, inspects a flooded escalator down to a subway platform in the days after Hurricane Sandy." Mike Segar / Reuters.
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