Weekend Prediction: Not All Bad

Weather Headlines

* Another amazing day across central Minnesota, in spite of patchy high clouds, highs top out in the low 70s, some 10-15 degrees above normal for April 17.
* More statistics: average date of the first 70 in the metro area? April 13. (thanks to Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office for that nugget of information).
* Saturday: nicer day of the weekend, some fleeting sun possible (especially south & east of Twin Cities, where highs may top 70).
* Winds shift to the north/northeast Saturday PM, keeping us 5-10 degrees cooler than Friday was.
* Best chance of light rain: Saturday night through midday Sunday.
* Some drying/brightening possible later in the day Sunday, but jacket weather returns, highs stuck in the 50s (40s north).
* Warming trend returns next week, more 60s likely by midweek.
* Growing shower/T-storm risk by Thursday/Friday of next week. The weekend outlook doesn't look promising for April 25/26 - some rain is likely, but that's GREAT NEWS for farmers, gardeners, and parched lawns and fields statewide.


Paul's Column

Today comes word that the EPA is FINALLY going to treat greenhouse gases as pollutants, which has big ramifications across a wide spectrum of industry. CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane have spiked 38% in the last 200 years, most of that coming in the last 50 years. Even if you're still a skeptic on the subject of climate change you might acknowledge that it makes sense to regulate these gases - err on the side of caution. Back in the 1970s there was growing awareness about the problem of "acid rain". Taller smokestacks turned a local pollution problem into a national problem, sulfuric emissions combined with water droplets to produce a mild drizzle of sulfuric acid hundreds, even thousands of miles downwind. Forests started dying, fish died off, the acidic, corrosive rain was strong enough to erode statues and even take paint off cars! Regulation was adopted by the EPA, and today the air over America (with a few exceptions) is uniformly cleaner than it was a generation ago. It worked. Hopefully by taking a stand, the EPA will encourage its counterparts in China and India to start cleaning up their act as well. I'm not holding my breath, but climate change is going to require international standards and international agreement. Some businesses, especially in the energy sector, will have to dig into their pockets to reduce CO2 released into the atmosphere. Thousands of new companies will spring up to create solutions for new energy sources, many of them green and renewable, many of them right here in Minnesota.

The weekend is here, and the weather will cooperate - part of the time. Today was the 12th day in a row of dry weather here in the Twin Cities. Naturally our mini dry spell will come to an upbrupt end, on a weekend! I could have predicted this weeks ago. Saturday will not be quite as spectacular as recent days - the sky overhead will slowly sour as the day goes on (dry weather should prevail most of the day). Winds swing around, blowing from the north to northeast by late afternoon, cooling us off by 5-10 degrees....PM temperatures holding in the low to mid 60s. The best chance of (a little) rain comes from Saturday night through midday Sunday. Computer models are still contradictory: the GFS is wetter than the WRF/NAM, which continues to keep the main bands of rain well south of the metro area. I'll be surprised if we pick up more than .15" of rain Saturday night and Sunday morning. One thing is more certain: we will cool off Sunday, temperatures stunted in the 40s to around 50 with a cool, damp breeze.

Skies clear as you head off to work or school Monday, and the sky over central Minnesota gets progressively warmer as the week goes on. We should see 60s by next Wednesday, computer models are hinting at low to mid 70s next Thursday (with a thunder threat). It's early, but the weekend of April 25/26 looks pretty soggy right now - some rain is likely (hey, no snow to report!) It's not what you wanted to hear, but odds are the 8-9 day forecast will change, flip-flop back and forth a few times, so all hope is not lost - at least not yet.

The 6-10 Day Outlook trends warmer than average for a huge chunk of America east of the Rockies, no winter relapses in sight anytime soon. Speaking of winter, if you have a friend living in the Denver/Colorado Springs area you may want to shoot them a quick e-mail. Over 4" of slushy snow just fell on the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. Poor folks out there. We feel your pain......don't we?