Thursday, November 12, 2009

Puddles Predicted for Evening Football Games

How's this for odd & random: the first 11 days of November are turning out to be a couple degrees warmer than ALL of October! That doesn't happen very often. Long-range computer guidance keeps us warmer than average through the end of next week. Don't expect another round of Indian Summer with highs near 60, but daytime highs should be well up in the 40s, a good 5-10 degrees above average. The GFS model goes out 15 days, and guidance is hinting at a colder front arriving right around Thanksgiving, possibly a period of rain leading up to Turkey-Time, a colder northwest wind keeping temperatures in the 30s for Thanksgiving Day, no more than a coating or dusting of snow. Right now I do NOT see any major storms capable of fouling up air or land travel between now and Thanksgiving. Of course that could change, but after a little rain today, skies clear out over the weekend. A storm winds up over the mid-Mississippi River Valley next week, possibly pushing a little light rain into Minnesota by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Weather Map for noon today. A week eastbound cool front is forecast to squeeze out a few hours of rain across Minnesota, possibly mixing with or changing over to a period of wet snow Friday night from the Red River Valley across far northern Minnesota.

Predicted Snowfall by next Tuesday. Models are predicting a couple inches of snow for far northern Minnesota tonight and early Saturday, but after the recent bout of milder-than-normal weather much of the snow may melt on contact with the (relatively) mild ground.

Snow? The atmosphere will be warm enough for mostly rain tomorrow, but the models are hinting at a little wet snow across far northern Minnesota late tomorrow and Friday night, I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick inch or two of slush. Whatever falls will be mostly-gone by Saturday afternoon. There's still precious little snow east of the Rockies, unusual but not unprecedented for mid November. The pattern won't be ripe for accumulating snow across the northern tier states of the USA until immediately after Thanksgiving, when lake-effect may finally kick in near Chicago, South Bend, Cleveland and Buffalo. By then we will be long overdue.

No Arctic Fronts Anytime Soon. Here's the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlook for next week - it's hard to miss the bulls-eye of warmth predicted right over Minnesota. Odds favor milder-than-normal weather through at least the end of next week. After that all bets are off.

GFS Model Outlook for 6 am next Thursday. A moderate-strength area of low pressure is forecast to spin up over the Mississippi Valley, tracking north across the Plains, pushing a shield of light rain into Minnesota late Wednesday into Thursday. The lowest mile of the atmosphere may be just cold enough for a light rain-snow mix, temperatures above freezing should insure wet roads - probably not cold enough for any snow to actually stick.

Thanksgiving Preview. Here is the raw GFS data for Thanksgiving week, suggesting a period of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a colder front Thanksgiving Day (maybe a dusting/coating of snow). By "Black Friday" daytime highs may be stuck in the 30s - 20s up north. From left to right the day/time is followed by temperature, dew point, wind information (surface and 3,500 feet aloft) followed by expected rainfall. Temperatures aloft cool down rapidly after Thanksgiving - it will be COLD enough for snow, but right now it looks like moisture will be limited in the days immediately after Thanksgiving. No cause for panic....yet.

Say What? This is a random photo that has absolutely nothing to do with today's weather. There are no dust devils (or giraffes) in today's outlook, you'll be happy to hear.

Today's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast, breezy and damp with periods of rain. Winds: SW/W 5-15. High: 52

Tonight: Light rain tapers off late (mixed with snow far northern MN, maybe 1-2"). Low: 34

Saturday: Partly sunny & drier with a cool breeze. High: 47

Sunday: Plenty of sun, milder than average (by about 10 degrees). High: 49

Monday: Mix of clouds and sun, still quiet and dry. High: 48

Tuesday: Sunny start, clouds increase later. High: 47

Wednesday: Cloudy, a little light rain possible late in the day. High: 46

Thursday: Periods of rain, cool & "raw". High: 45

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