Saturday, December 5, 2009

Snowy Week Ahead?

Absolutely! It will be... for some. I have to admit, I'm a little intrigued by this weeks extended model runs. We went from the 2nd warmest November on record to (like a switch) below average for these first few days of December. We are definitely cold enough for snow, now we just need some moisture. The jet stream, or strong upper level winds, are situated in a way that will bring moisture, finally, to the Upper Midwest. In fact, there will be several chances of snow knocking on our door, but it appears the heaviest of the snow will be well south of us. The first weak system strolls through Sunday night/early Monday morning and brings southern Minnesota a light fluffing of snow, but the second - more intense - storm is the one to watch. Like the first one, it too will stay well south of the Minnesota/Iowa border, but this one will be much larger and spread moisture farther north.

See here:

Another view here:

Keeping an Eye on the Moisture this Week:
This is the 5 day QPF or quantitative Precipitation Outlook from NOAA - notice the light and dark green coloring over central and southern Minnesota. This is where there is 0.10" to a little more than 0.25" of moisture. A quick and dirty snow to water ratio is 10:1 - meaning for every 1" of liquid water available, you'd have 10" of snow. Going with that, we'd have anywhere from 1" to 3" of snow in these areas. However, the temperatures are going to be quite chilly so the snow to water ratio should be a little higher and the track of the storm still isn't certain. Winter Storm Watches will likely be posted over the next day or two for places to our south. 6" of snow or more is certainly likely for central and southern Iowa, but we'll see how far that system lifts north. Winter headlines may still be posted for locations close to home... Stay tuned!

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Thickening clouds, perhaps a flurry or two late. High 24

Monday: Mostly cloudy with flurries possible early. High 23

Tuesday: Snow developing late, mainly south. High 21

Wednesday: Chance of snow continues, turning colder. High 17

Thursday: Brighter, sunnier and colder. High 15

Friday: Partly cloudy, still cold. High 18

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