Saturday, January 9, 2010

January Thaw Still on Track

Saturday's sunshine felt pretty good, didn't it? I am amazed at how warm 10 degrees feels after going through such a long stretch of below zero weather... and if you thought if felt warm yesterday, wait until mid-week when temperatures climb into the low 30's. It'll be a regular heat wave - Minnesota style. Take look at the long range GFS forecast numbers this week. I've highlighted the high temperatures through the week. Note the high temperature on Wednesday:

A southerly wind will be blowing some impressive warmth into the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere. Take a look at the BUFKIT temperature profile forecast for Wednesday in the western part of the state (Redwood Falls). The LONG yellow rectangle indicates the warmest temperature I could find a few thousand feet above the surface. I find it fascinating that it will be nearly 50 degrees at 3000 feet by Wednesday!

Depending on how strong the southerly wind gets on Tuesday/Wednesday, we may see even warmer temperatures than what the long range GFS forecast is saying. A stronger wind will allow the atmosphere to mix up a little more, so some of that warmer stuff aloft, might just be able to sneak down to the surface. Although, when temperatures get near the freezing mark (32 degrees) along with a deep snow pack, we have to start thinking about dense fog developing. If that's the case, our sunny days will be kept to a minimum this week. We'll keep an eye on the situation, in the meantime, the precipitation chances are quite low through the next few days, so the driving nightmares from late last week will be only bad memories.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Sun fades behind increasing clouds, flurries late. High: 21

Tonight: A little light snow possible, nothing major. Low: 14

Monday: Patchy clouds, a few passing flurries. High: 23

Tuesday: Feeling better, intervals of sun. High: near 31

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. High: 33

Thursday: More clouds, well above average. High: 32

Friday: Cooler, few flake in the air. High: 26

Saturday: More sun, warming up slightly. High: 29

Sunday: Partly sunny, thawing out again. High: 32

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