Saturday, June 19, 2010

Better Than Average Sunday

O.K. Maybe, just maybe, we're getting over the Saturday-June-Curse. After a gray start we salvaged a partly sunny Saturday afternoon - what later mellowed into an incredible Saturday evening, like something out of a postcard.

Wild weather should stay to our south Sunday, a severe thunderstorm outbreak possible across Iowa, only a slight chance of a passing shower or T-shower across southern MN by midday. Most of Sunday should be sunny and warm, afternoon highs near 80 (with considerably less wind than we experienced Saturday). A few pop-up showers are possible over far northern MN as well, but from 'Tonka and White Bear on north to Pelican, the Whitefish Chain and Leech Lake, there should be enough Sunday sunshine for a respectable tan (or burn).

Close Call. NAM model output for midday Sunday, showing heavy/severe storms rumbling across Iowa, but a slight chance of an isolated shower/storm over the southern third of Minnesota. That said, the vast majority of today should be dry.

Keep in mind, with the summer solstice Monday at 6:28 am, the sun is currently as high in the sky as it ever gets - the risk of sunburn is off the scale. Be generous with sunscreen the next few days/weeks. Experts increasingly believe there is no such thing as "safe sun", you may get that nice dark glow, but repeated exposure to bright sun (without sunscreen) leads to premature wrinkling and a significantly heightened risk of melanoma - skin cancer. I don't want to be Debby Downer, but take the sun seriously, especially in late June and early July.

Monday Downpours? Most of the models are hinting at heavy T-storms Monday, as a ripple of low pressure tracks along a slowly northward-advancing warm front. Impossible to time (this early) but know that the skies may open up for a few hours Monday, especially over southern MN.

A few weather take-aways: strong storms may rumble across Minnesota Sunday night into Monday, especially the southern third of the state.

We warm up into the mid/upper 80s later in the week, and some of the long-range models are hinting at 90s just in time for the 4th of July holiday weekend. We're due for a stretch of 90s. For at least the next 2-3 days the frontal boundary separating sauna-like heat from relatively comfortable air to the north will be meandering back and forth over Minnesota, sparking scattered T-storms Sunday night into Tuesday.

Enjoy what should be a pretty nice Sunday, more sun than clouds, less wind (blowing from the southeast at 8-13 with a few higher gusts) - just a 1 in 3 chance of a passing T-shower south of the MN River by midday Sunday.

It's getting better out there - brush the cobwebs off your sunglasses, we're finally breaking out into a more summerlike pattern - hopefully we'll tiptoe into a summery regime (without another outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes). It's going to take all of us some time to get over Thursday's atmospheric temper tantrum.

Storm Front. Click here to see an eye-opening time lapse of Thursday's severe storms rolling across Iowa, courtesy of KCRG-TV and KCCI-TV.
Worse than the Dustbowl Years? Where does the current oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico rank with other natural disasters through the years? Is it really as bad as the Dustbowl years of the 1930s? Click here for a thoughtful story, an attempt at perspective, from the New York Times.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Today: Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of a passing shower/T-shower. Winds: SE 8-13. High: near 80

Sunday night: Patchy clouds, heavy T-storms possible late. Low: 63

Monday: Unsettled, more humid with a few T-storms, some heavy over southern MN. High: 81

Tuesday: Partly sunny and sticky with a few lingering T-storms. High: 84

Wednesday: Lingering clouds, best chance of showers east of the metro area. High: 83

Thursday: Plenty of sun, feels like summer again. High: 86

Friday: Intervals of sun, muggy - a few T-storms possible. High: 89

Saturday: Evacuate to the lake or pool. Hazy sun, breezy and HOT. A few T-storms, mainly up north. High: near 90

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