Saturday, December 11, 2010

12-16" For Much of Metro Area (heaviest bands southern suburbs)

Storm Headlines:

* Winter Storm Warning in effect, Blizzard Warnings south/west of MSP.

* Moderate to heavy snow continues into the evening hours, tapering to flurries tonight.

* Heaviest snow bands setting up over the southern/eastern suburbs: best chance of picking up 16" or more of snow - 30 mph winds will carve out some 2-5 foot drifts.

* Snow totals of 12-16" across much of the metro area by 9 pm tonight, closer to 4-8" for far northern suburbs.

* Close to blizzard criteria, especially outside the metro area. Sustained winds of 25-30 with gusts over 35 mph. will produce white-out conditions.

* Dangerous wind chills tonight and Sunday - dipping to -30 F. at times.

Heaps And Piles Of Snow. Here is the latest (NAM/WRF) model prediction for snowfall amounts - the heaviest amounts predicted for the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities - as much as 18-20" for the Rochester area. Amounts drop off sharply north/west of MSP, St. Cloud may wind up with 3-6" of snow - virtually nothing for Brainerd, maybe an inch for Alexandria. Just south Willmar could easily pick up over a foot of snow.

Latest Model Guidance. The computer models are converging on a solution of 14-17" for much of the metro, the best chance of over 15" south metro.

Stubborn Snow Bands. The heaviest bands are setting up over the south metro - amounts drop off sharply north/west of St. Cloud and Alexandria. My hunch is that some of the southern and eastern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis will wind up with somewhere between a foot and 18" - with 2-5 foot drifts. The latest Doppler Radar is here.

* Latest snowfall reports are here, courtesy of the National Weather Service.

Snow Blitz of '10. Here is the latest surface map, the intensifying storm tracking across central Iowa into southern Wisconsin - a perfect track for heavy snow setting up over the Twin Cities.

Getting Worse. Here is the latest Google traffic map for the metro area - I expect conditions to deteriorate as the day goes on (and winds increase).

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