CHRISTMAS EVE: Winter Weather Advisory South/West. 2-4" snow, more south/west of metro. Roads becoming slippery. Winds: E/NE 5-10. High: 28
NEW YEAR'S EVE: A mix of rain, ice and snow (best chance of accumulation far northern/western MN). High: 29
NEW YEAR'S DAY: A changeover back to mostly snow, some accumulation possible - heaviest amounts probably over central/northern/western MN. High: 27
Church Of The Nativity. A week ago my wife, Laurie, and I visited Bethlehem, on the Palestinian West Bank.
Christmas Eve Overview. Here's the latest from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen - isolating the heaviest snow bands setting up just south/west of I-94. Some 6" snowfall amounts are possible just south of Alexandria and St. Cloud. These clippers are notoriously fickle, a difference of 25 miles can make the difference between an inch and 4". I still believe we'll see a "plowable" snowfall today, the farther south/west you travel away from the metro area the heavier the snow amounts should be.
Plowable. The 00z NAM guidance prints out .30" liquid. With temperatures in the mid to upper 20s that should translate into a 10/1 snow/rain ratio, implying about 2-4" of snow for much of the metro.
An Icy New Year? It's still a week away, but the GFS model is still suggesting enough warm, moist air may stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico for a period of rain next Thursday/Friday, possibly freezing rain (rain freezing on contact). I could see a significant icing event for much of Minnesota late next week, changing over to mostly snow by New Year's Day, with "wrap-around" snow bands continuing some light accumulation into Sunday. If it were all snow we might be looking at some 6-12" amount, but I believe much of the precipitation will fall as rain, freezing rain or sleet, keeping final snowfall amounts down a bit. If you're traveling late next week you will definitely want to keep an eye on the latest forecast.
Potential for Major Spring Flooding on The Red River Near Fargo/Moorhead? Here is the latest from the National Weather Service hydrologists up in Grand Forks (scroll down to see the text forecast). Hundreds of thousands of variables are factored, including soil moisture going into the winter, the depth of the frost, the amount of water locked up in the current snow, and precipitation forecasts into March and April (we're likely to trend cooler and wetter than average into early spring). A few details:
- Residual Summer and Fall moisture continues to be a concern. Much of the area received five or more inches of above normal precipitation this year, with areas south and east of Fargo receiving nearly a foot above normal of growing season rainfall.
Wishing you and yours a very merry (and safe) holiday season.
* YouTube video clip courtesy of Safekey Corporation.