0" official snow total on the ground as of Tuesday evening.
7th snowiest winter season as of Tuesday.
4-8" possible today, less south metro, more north metro.
Boy's Basketbal Tournament in full swing in St. Paul.
La Nina cooling of the Pacific is still moderate in scope, weakening slowly.
Record Winters. If we wind up with at least 4" of snow this morning this will be the 5th snowiest winter since 1891. If the final amount from today's storm exceeds 4.7" this would be the 4th snowiest in modern day records. Source: National Weather Service.
Clash of Seasons. Flood warnings (bright green) continue to dominate the weather map over southern Minnesota, where recent heavy rains have left streams and rivers swollen and rising. Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for most of the metro (bright purple shading), except for the southern suburbs, where more precipitation will fall as ice, keeping snowfall amounts lower, closer to 2-4". The latest thinking: a layer of glaze ice, then 4-8" snow on top of that for much of the metro area - making for a fascinating rush hour Wednesday morning. It could have been worse - I don't think we'll see a foot of snow - much of the moisture falling as ice the next few hours, keeping final snowfall totals down a bit. Come to think of it, 4-8" is plenty for the 23rd day of March. The latest watches, warnings and advisories from the NWS are here.
* How much? Based on the 00z NAM run it still appears ice will give way to a "plowable" snowfall for most of the metro, with a potential for at least 4-8" in the metro, maybe some 10"+ amounts over the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities..
* Flood Watch in effect for well over 1" of additional liquid precipitation (combined rain, sleet and snow).
* Flood Warnings for many rivers and streams across southern MN. The latest from the NWS is here.
* NWS upgrades Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for most of the MSP metro area.
* Band of 6-10" possible from Alexandria, St. Cloud and Brainerd Lakes area - possibly extending into parts of the north metro area.
* Blizzard warnings still posted for Duluth area for as much as a foot of snow by Wednesday PM, but the latest run keeps the heaviest snow bands SOUTH of Duluth, just a few inches.
* We have never had 3 (one-foot) snowfalls in the metro area in a single winter season. In the event we do pick up a foot (at MSP International) it would be the first time in modern-day records, dating back to 1891. The odds of 12" of snow at MSP have diminished a little (too much of the main surge of precipitation falling as rain/ice between now and 1 am).
* Most of the snow that does fall will be gone by Friday or Saturday - the sun is too high in the sky for snow to linger on the ground for long.
Thunder-Snow. For the latest snowfall reports from the National Weather Service click here.
Those Living Along U.S. Coast Should Always Be Prepared For Tsunamis. In light of the horrifying Japan disaster NOAA released this statement: "In the wake of Japan’s tsunami disaster, NOAA is urging Americans who live and vacation at the coast to take the threat of tsunamis seriously. With more coastline than any other country in the world and proximity to several major fault lines, the Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean coasts of the United States are vulnerable to tsunamis. NOAA’s National Weather Service, which operates the U.S. tsunami detection and warning system, says that the key to surviving a tsunami is staying informed and moving quickly to higher ground when a tsunami threatens."
Most socially networked
1 Washington, DC A+
2 Atlanta, GA A+
3 Denver, CO A+
4 Minneapolis, MN A+
Tuesday Soaking. The NWS reported .66" of rain on Tuesday (including some thunder and lightning). Three quarters of an inch of rain fell on Rochester. Highs held in the 30s - had the mercury been just 3-5 degrees colder we would have picked up an additional 5-8" snow yesterday. Yes, it could have been worse.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
The Content Of Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere Is Accelerating, Super-Exponentially. Here's an excerpt from a troubling article at Climate Progress: "Recent climate science is unequivocal that human civilization is on the precipice. Climate science also finds that we are pouring carbon dioxide pollution into the atmosphere at an unsustainable rate. A 2008 Nature Geoscience study found that humans were boosting CO2 levels 14,000 times faster than nature, overwhelming slow negative feedbacks. That study found, “the mean long-term trend of atmospheric CO2 levels is no more than 22 p.p.m.v. over the past 610,000 years.” Humans have run up CO2 levels 100 ppm over the last two centuries! The author of that study noted, “Right now we have put the system entirely out of equilibrium” It turns out that a purely mathematical analysis, “Evidence for super-exponentially accelerating atmospheric carbon dioxide growth,” comes to a similar conclusion. The paper itself is mostly mathematically and essentially agnostic on climate science. But the conclusions are as stark as any in the climate literature:
Overall, the evidence presented here does not augur well for the future.
- Notwithstanding a lot of discussions, international meetings, prevalence in the media, atmospheric CO2 content growth continues unabated with a clear faster-than-exponential behavior. On the face of this evidence using data until 2009, stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions at levels reached in 1990 for instance seems very ambitious, if not utterly unrealistic. We are not pessimistic. We think that only evidence-based decision making can lead to progress. The present evidence gives some measure of the enormous challenges to control our CO2 emissions to acceptable levels.
A More Accessible Approach
Throughout the year, the Google fellows will sharpen their new media skills, learn data-sharing technologies and improve communication strategies to lend a more accessible approach to climate science."