Friday, May 20, 2011

Somewhat Soggy Weekend

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SATURDAY: Showers, storms likely, especially morning/midday hours. A brighter PM? Peeks of sun possible by late afternoon and evening. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 75

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy and sticky with a pass shower or thunderstorm. Low: 61

SUNDAY: Some sun morning/midday hours. Mostly PM showers, T-storms. Winds: S 10-15. High: 79

MONDAY: Showers linger, cooler - still damp. Low: 59. High: 68

TUESDAY: More sunshine. A cooler, drier day. Low: 45. High: 65

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Low: 46. High: 67

THURSDAY: Mostly dry and more sunshine with increasing clouds late. Low: 48. High: 68

FRIDAY: Sun fades, rain and maybe some thunder develops for the ride up north. Low: 48. High: 68

Water Logged Storm Keeps Weekend Unsettled
Naturally, the weather sours as we reach the weekend... Regardless of what the weather is like today or tomorrow, I think we are all appreciative that the weather isn't as rotten as it was last Saturday! It seems as though spring has taken its sweet time arriving this year. Tree leaves, flowers and lilacs all showing up almost 2 to 3 weeks later than normal. Finally, my lilacs at home have started opening as seen in the picture above.
A slow moving storm system, wrapping up over the High Plains will continue sending waves of moisture our way through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are likely yet again Saturday and perhaps on Sunday, but a gradual trend towards sunshine and cooler weather will take place as we head into early next week.

A closer look shows that there is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather today to our south, along the leading edge of some warmer air that is nosing northward. Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity that develops to our south will be heading our way - there is an outside chance that some of the storms could be strong close to home. It appears the best chance of storms will be through midday Saturday, with a break in the action through the afternoon as everything lifts north and east. In fact, there may even be a little sunshine popping out as temperatures again top out into the 70s.

The high resolution radar simulation shows that showers and storms will be moving through the state during the morning hours... might be a good morning to sleep in and get some of those indoor chores done.

By the early afternoon, there will be a few bands of light showers or storms moving through, but the heaviest of the rain should be done with around the Twin Cities Metro... Don't be surprised if you see skies brighten a bit, there might even be a little sunshine developing into the later afternoon hours, which will help with the warming - maybe getting close to 80F!

Keep in mind that any sunshine we see will help to destabilize the atmosphere. With as much warmth and humidity as there will be around, a spotty shower or thunderstorm may still pop up through the later afternoon/evening hours. I predict that this will be the time that most will be able to get some of those outside chores completed, but you might get chased inside for time to time as a passing thundershower rumbles by.

The image above shows the moisture contend in the atmosphere in the lowest few thousand feet near the surface. It actually shows a little dry slot over the central and southern part of the state, which indicates that we may start off with some sunshine on Sunday, but don't be fooled because sunshine will again help to pop up a few showers and storms into the middle and later part of the day, but it won't be a washout.

Sunday afternoon will be a bit unsettled as showers and thunderstorms pop up in a fairly warm and humid environment. Winds will begin to pick out of the southwest in the afternoon as the storm wobbles around just to our north. 
How Much Rain?
The HPC QPF (Hydrological Prediction Center's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) shows that over an inch of rain is possible from 7pm Friday through 7pm Monday as seen in the image above. The image below shows the NAMs guess at rainfall through Monday as well - note how it picks up on a heavier band of accumulating rainfall through the Twin Cities. Keep in mind that thunderstorms have a unique way of concentrating moisture in the atmosphere into a condensed column... Thunderstorms are hard to predict where, exactly, they will develop, but if you happen to be under one of these convective showers, you'll have a better chance at getting in on some of the heavier rainfall amounts through the weekend, which again could exceed 1" and possible as high as 1.5"

Looking Ahead - Midweek Dry Stretch - Unsettled End of Week
Remnant moisture will plague the area on Monday (which will be light), but look for a cooler, drier and breezier weather regime to take hold into Tuesday as the front sags south. The sun will shine for most of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, but showers and isolated storms will sneak back into the picture, just as we hit the roads and battle the traffic north to our favorite lake for Memorial Weekend. Below is the next system expected to swing through on Friday - there is a chance that this my sail away off to the south, it's still early.

Memorial Day Outlook
I know this is WAAAY out there, but it's fun to look anyway. The extended model runs are showing a fairly significant wave of energy from the Pacific over the Dakotas by Sunday nigh/Monday morning. If this weather pattern holds, there is a chance that storms could break out on our Memorial Day Monday, some of which could be strong to severe... stay tuned!
App Time - Anti Mosquito  - Fumigator App
I can't believe I found this!! Not sure if it works, but I fully intend on trying it out when those big bloodsucking buzzards start appearing... hopefully not too soon. This Ipad/Iphone Anti Mosquito App claims to keep mosquitos and any other pesky bugs away by using a sound frequency that doesn't seem too annoying - see the description HERE:

Can Pets Predict the Weather, Among Other Things?
Thanks to my Aunt, Kaye Kruse, for sending me this link about pet owners who say they've received weather warnings from their pets. 
 "Summer means it is storm season. You may not have to check with the weather service to find out if lightning is about to strike, however. The answer could be curled up in your lap or resting at your feet. According to a survey by the Associated Press and, more than two-thirds of dog and cat owners say they’ve received weather warnings from their pets. Even more surprisingly, almost half report they’ve been alerted to bad news by their animals. Do pets really have this mysterious “sixth sense”?"

Funky - Actually - Raunchy Looking Cocoon ?!?
I can honestly say I've never seen this before, but I found this thing 'growing' in my tree on Friday. It almost looks like a creepy cocoon looking thing. After further inspection, I noticed (what looked like) small worms crawling around inside along with a number of tiny black things woven into the silky, sticky, white webbing, which to me looked like some sort of 'egg' - but I'm not sure. If there are any intelligent plant/tree/gardener/green thumbers out there that may know what this is; If I should let it be or should somehow get rid of it, in fear that it may disease my flowering crabapple tree - PLEASE - let me know... it is rather raunchy looking. Thanks!! 
Email me at: 

Thanks for checking in on this Saturday, enjoy your weekend!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

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