70 F. high in the Twin Cities yesterday. Normal high is 81. June 22, 2010: 91 at MSP.
June 7: last time it was hotter than 90 in the Twin Cities (103 F).
Saturday appears to be the sunnier, drier (nicer) day of the weekend. An isolated PM T-shower can't be ruled out, especially south/west of MSP. T-storms may be more widespread Sunday, especially PM hours.
80s return next week, long-range models hinting at highs near 90 from late June into the first week of July.
6 Tornadoes so far in the 7-county metro area in 2011 (source: local NWS).
In stark contrast, the Twins have thought this through - they have completed a "StormReady" audit with the local National Weather Service, they've hired a full-time meteorologist (Craig Edwards, former chief of the local NWS office). He's on-site, checking Doppler and other data sources, ready to jump in and provide the time-critical information necessary for the umpire crew to delay or cancel a game, if severe weather is threatening. I give the Twins a lot of credit for thinking this through and coming up with a viable action plan for fans, players and employees. I hate to say it, but one of these days a large, violent tornado is going to hit a stadium or concert event - hundreds, even thousands could perish in a worst-case scenario. Statistically, it's only a matter of time.
What's critical here is situational awareness. Target Field has a good action plan, but personal responsibiility is critical as well.
A few things you can do to lower the potential for disaster:
1). Situational Awareness. Before heading to a game (or any outdoor event) check the weather. Is there a watch in effect? If so, you'll want to monitor weather from the stands, just to make sure nothing threatening is moving in.
2). Smartphone apps: one good option for Target Field (or anywhere, for that matter) is to download a couple of weather alerting apps to your Android phone or iPhone. Several allow you to input a "favorite location" and get push alerts if a warning is issued for that location. A few will even use your current GPS location. This is the future of weather warning - getting granular, and pushing personalized warnings via smart phones.
* personal favorites: My-Cast (previous company, and no, I don't get a spiff or commission), also WeatherRadio. Both of these apps allow you to receive customized warnings for any location. WeatherRadio gives you a real-time stream of NOAA Weather Radio when warnings are issued - pretty powerful. Both of these apps have saved my butt on more than one occasion.
3). Always have a Plan B. Whenever you're outside you should scope out a safe shelter nearby, preferably something concrete and steel-reinforced, where you could ride out any severe storm. At Target Field it might be the interior (concrete-reinforced) rest rooms. It's tougher up at the lake or on a camping trip. Is there a building nearby, any building will offer more protection than a tent. I don't rely on anyone else for my safety, or the safety of my family. You should feel the same way. The local NWS does an amazing job - when weather is severe local media will be on the air. But they can't catch every storm - at some point this comes down to personal responsibility - keeping an eye on the elements and making your own decisions. That could mean heading for the basement, even if the sirens aren't sounding. Maybe it's just the Eagle Scout in me. That old adage to "be prepared" is spot-on.
"My position with the Minnesota Twins is considered the "Game Day Meteorologist." I provide a short-term forecast to the VP of Operations and the head groundskeeper. This information is then passed along to the Managers of both teams, as well as the umpire crew chief. Once the game begins the decision to suspend play is in the hands of the umpire crew chief. MLB policy states the umpire crew chief will determine when conditions are unsuitable for play.
I am positioned in the Target Field weather facility, under the third base stands. Close proximity to radar and weather data allows me to relay updates promptly to the groundskeeper, and he can focus on supervising his crew as weather begins to move in.
The Twins worked with Todd Krause at Chanhassen to become certified as a StormReady supporter. That information is posted on the MPX website. Here's the release to that press release from the NWS."
Significant Severe Weather. SPC has an overview of extreme weather in Minnesota from 1980 - 2006. The long red lines are (major) tornado tracks. the blue dots are straight line winds, the green dots are large hail reports. More details: "Significant severe weather reports during the period are plotted. Only tornadoes F2 or stronger, wind gusts of 65 knots or stronger, and hail of 2" diameter or larger are plotted."
Severe Stats. Yes, you can prove anything with statistics. But during an "average year" (whatever that is), the MPX warning area (most of central and southern Minnesota) can expect to see 33 days with large (severe) hail of 1" diameter or greater, 32 days with straight-line winds, and 14 days with tornadoes. Somehow I think those numbers will be considerably higher this year.
Projected Crest. Right now the Souris River at Minot is expected to crest by Monday of next week, as much as 4-8 feet above the previous high-water mark set in 1969, 10 feet higher than the previous crest on June 1.
Austin, Texas: 13 days
Amarillo, Texas: 11 days
San Antonio, Texas: 9 days
Dallas, Texas: 8 days
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: 4 days
- Two Florida forest rangers were killed when a small, smoldering wildfire flared up and trapped them, state officials said Tuesday. Two comrades trying to rescue them also were injured.
- It's the first time since 2000 that a forestry division employee has died fighting a wildfire.
- The rangers were plowing with bulldozers Monday to contain a 12-acre blaze on the Georgia line that's among 400 wildfires currently burning. The Blue Ribbon Fire about 85 miles northeast of Tallahassee had previously been declared contained, but it flared back up. He said Florida is running a rainfall deficit this year, and temperatures of up to 104 degrees have made some areas very dry.
- Already, 2011 is the state's 11th-worst year on record for wildfires — with more than 3,600 blazes burning over 190,000 acres. Florida firefighters have been facing an average of more than 31 new wildfires every day.
Sunday: Not Bad. The NAM model is predicting severe storms from the Black Hills of South Dakota to Chicago Saturday night and early Sunday. The 12z Sunday prediction shows a few scattered T-storms over the Red River Valley - a growing chance of PM storms Sunday, but much of the day should be dry, with fading sun, a southeast wind at 10-20, a falling barometer, and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
THURSDAY: Unseasonably cool and windy. Light showers. Winds: NW 10-20+ High: 63
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds giving way to partial clearing late - still chilly for late June. Low: 53
"...but whatever the cause, the referee (the media) appears not to notice that the Polluters and Ideologues are trampling all over the “rules” of democratic discourse. They are financing pseudoscientists whose job is to manufacture doubt about what is true and what is false; buying elected officials wholesale with bribes that the politicians themselves have made “legal” and can now be made in secret; spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on misleading advertisements in the mass media; hiring four anti-climate lobbyists for every member of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. (Question: Would Michael Jordan have been a star if he was covered by four defensive players every step he took on the basketball court?) This script, of course, is not entirely new: A half-century ago, when Science and Reason established the linkage between cigarettes and lung diseases, the tobacco industry hired actors, dressed them up as doctors, and paid them to look into television cameras and tell people that the linkage revealed in the Surgeon General’s Report was not real at all. The show went on for decades, with more Americans killed each year by cigarettes than all of the U.S. soldiers killed in all of World War II. This time, the scientific consensus is even stronger. It has been endorsed by every National Academy of science of every major country on the planet, every major professional scientific society related to the study of global warming and 98 percent of climate scientists throughout the world. In the latest and most authoritative study by 3,000 of the very best scientific experts in the world, the evidence was judged “unequivocal.”
"NOAA’s short term weather forecasts of conditions on an hourly basis to about two weeks out are a key component of our mission to protect American lives and property. Likewise, NOAA’s long range weather and seasonal forecasts, also known as climate forecasts, inform advance planning decisions, from weeks to months ahead of time, that allow for a rapid response to the onset of events such as severe storms, droughts, and floods. Although many people think very long term when they hear the word ‘climate,’ climate simply picks up where weather leaves off. “Climate services” refer to forecasts of conditions any time in the future beyond two weeks. For more than a century, NOAA has provided information about the weather, by way of short term forecasts of less than two weeks, and about the climate through long-range forecasts from two weeks to seasons or years out. For example, NOAA’s climate forecasts, including seasonal precipitation and drought outlooks, are helping firefighters in Texas prepare for and respond to this record wildfire season. These data and products are not just critical to Americans when it comes to saving lives and property; NOAA’s information is being used by businesses, industry, and governments to make smart investments in the economy and infrastructure. For example, just one of NOAA’s information tools is helping the U.S. home building industry save an estimated $300 million per year in construction costs alone, by using NOAA’s temperature trend information to design cost-effective building foundations. Americans also depend on NOAA’s climate information to reduce their risk to natural hazards (such as drought and flooding) and to take advantage of opportunities to use scarce resources more efficiently (such as reducing irrigation schedules during periods of above normal precipitation). And they are now demanding more data and increasingly complex products in a timely manner that, in turn, requires advanced scientific study. Appendix A of this testimony provides examples of the impressive growth in demand for NOAA’s climate service, as well as additional examples of the types of services and data requests NOAA receives."
* Click here to see a full online copy of the testimony (PDF).
-The accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet,
-Contributes to a projected 5 foot sea-level rise by century's end,
-Then the vicious climate feedbacks, like the release of methane and carbon dioxide as permafrost melts,
-Which accelerates global warming even faster."