TONIGHT: Warm and muggy. Low: 74
Instant Summer. So much for fiddling with the furnace and "free A/C". The 00z NAM model is hinting at mid to upper 90s Thursday and Friday. 100 is not out of the question over parts of southern Minnesota within 36 hours.
4th of July Weather Preview. Expecting perfection. This year? You have to be kidding. Right now it looks like a (weak) cool frontal passage will shift winds to the west Saturday, meaning partly sunny skies and a drop in temperature and humidity, highs mostly in the 80s. That front will stall just to our south, setting the stage for T-storms Saturday night into Sunday, especially south of the Minnesota River. Sunday appears to be the wettest day; T-storms may linger over southern MN much of the day. Right now the 4th looks sunnier and drier, highs in the low to mid 80s.
First Tropical Storm of 2011. "Arlene" is a minimal tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico - heading toward Mexico. Details below.
Mid 90s expected Thursday and Friday. South/southeast winds may gust to 30 mph. I could see the local NWS office issuing a heat advisory for the metro area.
Sunday: wettest day of the holiday weekend. Chance of heavy T-storms over the southern third of MN Saturday night into much of Sunday.
4th of July: Partly sunny, probably dry - but it's still too early to get specific. Early models keep most of the T-storms to our south next Monday, over Iowa.
Tropical Storm Arlene. Packing a 40 mph punch, "Arlene" is the first tropical storm of 2011, heading due west, toward Mexico, where it may dump 10-15" rains in the coming days. Infrared satellite image courtesy of NHC.
Bi-Coastal Tropical Cyclone? Arlene may pass across Mexico, weakening rapidly as it loses its moisture-source. There is a very small probability that the disturbance could re-intensify once it passes into the Pacific within 4 days. Graphic courtesy of NHC and Ham Weather.
Holiday Weekend Weather: Not A Total Loss. Models suggest a slight chance of T-storms Thursday (heaviest storms may pass north of Minnesota - too much hot/dr air "capping" the atmosphere close to MSP). There's a better chance of T-storms bubbling up along a stalled frontal boundary over the southern third of Minnesota Saturday night & Sunday.
Stormy Sunday South? The GFS is printing out heavy T-storms Saturday night into much of Sunday south of St. Cloud, over roughly the southern third of Minnesota. Right now it appears that Sunday may be the wettest day of the weekend, at least in the metro area. The odds of sunshine and decent weather increase north/west of Lake Mille Lacs.
4th of July Preview. Here is the latest GFS model, valid 7 pm Monday evening. I wouldn't put too much stock into this yet. In the coming days we'll be looking at trends, seeing if there is continuity between the various models. Right now models hint at a (weak) bubble of high pressure over Minnesota Monday, with a much better chance of heavy T-storms from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and Chicago. Odds favor mostly-dry weather for 4th of July festivities in Minnesota. It's early, much can change - hopefully for the better.
Wednesday Severe Risk. It may not be quite as noisy today, more T-storms across the drought-plagued southern U.S. A few storms may turn severe across Montana, but SPC doesn't expect as much hail or straight-line wind damage as previous days.
Wednesday: Expanding Heat. 100-degree heat may spread as far north as the Black Hills of South Dakota today, at least 8 states expecting highs above 100 later today. Meanwhile cool 60s and 70s will provide a little free A/C from northern New England to the Great Lakes, unusually cool weather from the San Francisco Bay area northward to Seattle.
Wednesday Rainfall Potential. The WRF/NAM model keeps showers and heavy T-storms in the forecast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina southward to Miami, west to New Orleans. A weakening front will drag a few rain showers into Boise and Reno, pop-up instability T-storms from the Front Range of Colorado to Yellowstone Park. Much of the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will be sunny and dry.
5-Day Rainfall. NOAA's latest QPF printso ut over 4" of rain for south Florida, helping to relieve drought conditions south of Orlando. Heavy storms may drop 1-2" on the Red River Valley - as much as 14" predicted in the path of Tropical Storm Arlene, just south of Brownsville, Texas.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 703.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 703.5 FEET BY
TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...BARGE LOADING STOPS AT PORT CARGILL. WATER
BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD IN BURNSVILLE.
* IMPACT...AT 700.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO COVER SOME OF THE
TRAILS AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 702.4
FEET ON JUN 1 2011.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
...RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE MONDAY AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT WAS 80
DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR
JUNE 27... WHICH WAS 79 DEGREES IN 1947.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE MONDAY AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT WAS 103
DEGREES... WHICH TIES THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURE
FOR JUNE 27. THE RECORD OF 103 WAS LAST SET IN 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR OKLAHOMA CITY DATE BACK TO 1890.
After Losing To USA, The North Korean Soccer Coach Says His Team Was Hit By Lightning. Sounds plausible to me. Details from the Business Insider: "After a respectable (but overmatched) defeat to the dastardly Americans, North Korea's women's soccer coach offered a perfectly valid excuse of this team's lackluster performance — half his team had been struck by lighting. Not during today's game, of course. But at the team's post-game press conference, coach Kim Kwang Min said that four players and a goalkeeper were hit by lightning on June 8th. As a result, those players weren't at full strength today and the team's strategy had to be altered. (The Guardian's John Ashdown has the full recap on his Twitter feed.) It wouldn't be the first time that this had happened to a soccer team and it would explain a great many things. However, no one else appears to have heard this story before today and the North Korean athletic department is not exactly known for its honesty and transparency."
Perfect Tuesday? I can't imagine better weather: bright sun, light winds, low humidity. Highs ranged from 72 at International Falls and Hibbing (where .31" rain fell) to 78 at St. Cloud and 79 in the Twin Cities. Why can't we have a Saturday like this?
* Funding came from Koch Foundation, Southern, Exxon, API
* Private science funding gets close look amid budget cuts
* Soon says never motivated by financial reward
By Timothy Gardner
WASHINGTON, June 28 (Reuters) - "Willie Soon, a U.S. climate change skeptic who has also discounted the health risks of mercury emissions from coal, has received more than $1 million in funding in recent years from large energy companies and an oil industry group, according to Greenpeace. Soon, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has also gotten funding from scientific sources including NASA and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But starting early in the last decade, Soon began receiving more funding from the energy companies, Greenpeace reported. Last year, the foundation of Charles Koch, chairman and CEO of privately held Koch Industries, gave Soon $65,000 to study how variations in the Sun are related to climate change. Koch is co-owned by David Koch, founder of Americans for Prosperity, a group aligned with the Tea Party movement, which opposes new air pollution regulations."