Sunday, July 24, 2011

Somewhat Summery & Stormy Week Ahead

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
MONDAY: More AM sun. Getting a little more humid by the afternoon with increasing late day clouds and an isolated storms possible in far western MN. High: 86

MONDAY NIGHT: Passing shower or rumble of thunder possible west, otherwise partly cloudy and quiet and mild Low: 69

TUESDAY: A little warmer, a little more sticky. Better chance of scattered afternoon T-storms - some strong? High: 89

WEDNESDAY: Hot and humid, strong afternoon T-storms possible over the SE corner of MN . Low: 74. High: 90.

THURSDAY: Lingering AM showers in southern MN and a few over extreme northern MN - still hot, but not as sticky as dew points fall through the afternoon. Low: 72. High: 89

FRIDAY: More sun, turning less humid. Low: 70. High: 88
SATURDAY: Warm and summery. A sunny start gives way to some scattered thunder across northern MN late/overnight... Low: 67. High: 89
SUNDAY: Front moves through keeping things unsettled for the afternoon hours. Low: 70. High: 89
A Great Weekend For Baseball
 Every time I set foot in Target Field, I am amazed at how beautiful that stadium is! Not sure you can go wrong with the view, good food, a great crowd and wonderful weather in the middle of summer. If you haven't been - you HAVE to check it out. I'm still in the honeymoon phase at Target Field... I spent most of my time on Saturday looking around the stadium and staring at the buildings downtown - Geez, it's hard not to with a view like that. I also wanted to congratulate Bert Blyleven for being called to the hall yesterday in Cooperstown! What an honor!!
Saturday Soaker
I have to admit, I was a little nervous about the weather on Saturday during the game. We had all the right ingredients for what could have been a very active afternoon - thankfully the weather held. Unfortunately, the U2 concert got a little wet and wild at the TCF Bank Stadium, but from everyone I talked to, they seemed to have enjoyed the rain. Regardless, I heard it was an amazing show and I am a little jealous I didn't splurge and get tickets. Saturday's muggy weather was book ended by storms and heavy rain. A round of showers and storms moved through early in the day through much of the region and the late evening storms bubbled up over the metro and moved SE through the rest of the state with more heavy rain. The image below shows the radar rain estimates, the heaviest of which fell east of Mankato along I-35. There were also a few reports of hail and high wind that stayed mostly south of the Cities.
 Saturday's Storm Reports

Sunday Funday - Beautiful Weather
I want to thank a good friend of mine, Rich Koivisto, from Duluth, MN for sending me this picture of Downtown Canal Park. The photo shows one of the Tall Ships still in the harbor along with the Aerial Lift Bridge. The Tall Ships Festival was last weekend (July 15-18) but some of the ships stick around during the week for a few more photo ops. Interestingly, these ships are very similar to the ships that  the "Alberta Clipper" snow events are named after. Just like the ships, those winter weather systems "Clip" along at a swift rate through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region - I don't know about you, but I don't even want to think about that right now... that stuff will be here soon enough - SIGH

Where Did July Go?
I hope you enjoyed your Sunday, the weather certainly cooperated didn't it? This last full week of July is going to be another very mild and somewhat sticky stretch. It won't be as bad as what we had last week, but the heat and humidity will be noticeable and typical of what we see around this time in the middle of summer. Did you know that, on average, the warmest week out of the entire year is now behind us? Our average daytime high falls from 84F to 83F by Wednesday. We have already lost around 40 minutes of daylight since the longest day/days of the year and will lose an additional ~ 10 minutes of daylight this week. To be honest, this is one of my favorite times of the year. I actually enjoy the heat/humidity and storms... I know it's hard on folks that have to work in this stuff, but I think I would rather have it this way than -40F wind chill.
This is a picture I took while I was out in the Black Hills of South Dakota the first week of July

The Week Ahead
Get ready for another somewhat summery and stormy week. The heat and humidity will bubble back north just a bit. High temperatures will snuggle in around 90F or so this week with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s (Late Tuesday - Early Wednesday)
The numbers below are from the GFS model, which shows its solutions Monday - Sunday. As I explained above, I think we will be very close to these numbers with the hottest/muggiest stuff in here around midweek as dew point climb into the lower 70s

How Them Rain/Thunder Chances?
A storm system moving in from the west will have us more unsettled late Tuesday - Wednesday with a pretty good shot at getting some thunderstorms. There is also a chance that some of this thunder activity could be strong to severe closer to home, which we will have to monitor. Take a look at the NAM's solution for rain chances by Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears that we will have a decent shot at rain/thunder late Tuesday as strong to severe thunderstorms develop in eastern North and South Dakota PM Tuesday, whatever develops there will slide east into Minnesota overnight. On Wednesday, the same front will light up into the afternoon/early evening hours (some could be strong to severe) but it all depends on where the front is when things develop, for now it appears the the best potential for development will be in SE Minnesota... Stay tuned!

Tuesday Night Rain Chances

Wednesday Rain Chances

Accumulated Rain Through 7pm Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms will have a good chance and bringing heavy rain, the HPC precipitation forecast through 7pm Wednesday shows up to 2" or more falling across parts of central and southern Minnesota with the heaviest of it moving through Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

Thanks for checking in - have a good week!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

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