Sunday, July 31, 2011

Typical Start to August

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

MONDAY: Another hot and steamy day. Chance for some AM thunder and again late afternoon/evening, mainly across central and northern Minnesota - SLIGHT RISK of severe weather. Dew point: low to mid 70s. High: 91
MONDAY NIGHT: Very mild with lingering storm chances across central and northern Minnesota. Low: 77

TUESDAY: Storms, then turning less humid late in the day as the cool front slides east. High: 90

WEDNESDAY: High pressure, almost comfortable! Low: 68. High: 87

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds, slight chance of a late day shower or thundershower. Low: 68. High: 85

FRIDAY: Summery. Warm with a stray storm west by late afternoon. Low: 68. High: 86

SATURDAY: Somewhat humid and unsettled with scattered storms developing late afternoon/overnight. Dew point: Upper 60s. Low: 69. High: 85
SUNDAY: Still unsettled with lingering PM storms. Low: 68. High: 84

Photo Courtesy: Rich Koivisto from Duluth, MN
Rich snapped this picture on Saturday evening of a storm that passed just of Duluth. Every so often you can get amazing images like this in Duluth as storms are lit from the back (western side) as the pass into northwestern Wisconsin - Great shot Rich!
Here's another one from Rich

A Warm July
Was it hot enough for you? Well, you're not just imagining it, July WAS a very warm month as the average temperature (calculated through the 30th) was 5.5F above average, which makes it the 5th warmest July on record in the Twin Cities - See more HERE: A large bubble of high pressure sat across the middle part of the nation for much of the month allowing hot and very humid conditions to settle in to the Upper Midwest. We hit 90 degrees or better 10 times this month (According to the 30 year normals from 1971 to 2000, the normal number of days at 90 degrees or more in July is just 5.6 days). Also, according to that same 30year normal  data set, we average 13 days with a high temperature of 90 degrees or more - so far this year we have seen 14 days at 90 degrees or higher. See more HERE: The 30year normals have also been updated, see more HERE: 
It is also important to note that our overnight low temperatures stayed unusually warm because extremely high dew point values. The average monthly temperature is obtained by adding the high temperature and low temperature for everyday in the month and then dividing by the number of days in the month. 14 days this month, our overnight low temperature stayed at 70 degrees or higher and 2 of those days we had an overnight low of 80 degrees - thus helping to keep the monthly average temperature warmer than normal.
A Typical Start to August
The month of August usually stays pretty warm as it is the last month of Meteorological Summer (On average the 3 warmest months out of the year: June, July and August). The 30year normal data still has us averaging another 3 days in August with a high temperature of 90 degrees of more. I could see us hitting 90F or better today, tomorrow and possibly on Wednesday before slightly cooler and more comfy air settles in through the end of the week. Those darn dew point values will continue to stay high; we'll have muggy, low/mid 70s dew points, through late Tuesday before taming into the 60s by Wednesday.

Another Hot & Sticky Day - Forecast Heat Index Values For Monday
As I alluded to earlier, Monday and Tuesday will be a couple of hot and sticky days with heat index values closing in on the century mark or better.
Upper Level Ridge Flattens
The hottest 2 days of the week will be Monday and Tuesday as the large upper level ridge bubbles north into Canada. By Wednesday, that ridge begins to flatten, allowing some slightly cooler and drier air to settle in. However, as the jet stream begins to sag south, the storm track sags south along with it keeping us unsettled through much of the week. The image below shows the upper level wind placement screaming overhead by Wednesday.
 Severe Storm Chance Monday
It appears the biggest threat for strong/severe storms will be across central and northern Minnesota
Severe Storm Chance for Tuesday
By Tuesday, the best chance for strong/severe storms shifts east into the Great Lakes Region
HPC Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday
The image below shows that most of the rain through Wednesday, which could be up to 2" to 3" in spots, will be across central and northern Minnesota.
That's all for now, thanks for checking in and have a good first week of August 2011!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

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