Isolated shower possible today (better chance of showers, thunder closer to Duluth).
48-53 F. dew point predicted for Saturday, the most comfortable day in sight, the sunnier day of the weekend.
1985: last time a hurricane came within 75 miles of New York City.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
New York City Hurricane Information:
"...North Carolina's Outer Banks, which look the likeliest to get a serious hit from Irene, have a long history of hurricanes, and building codes and emergency plans reflect that. Structures in the region are designed to withstand up to 110 mph sustained winds and gusts of up to 130 mph for three minutes. Evacuation routes are meticulously planned, down to the order in which counties hit the road." - from a Huffington Post article on Hurricane Irene preparation below.
Photo credit: "Astronaut Ron Garan tweeted this picture of Hurricane Irene from the International Space Station on August 24, 2011: "Ominous view #FromSpace of Hurricae #Irene east of the Bahamas @ 3:14pm EST today. East FL coast is calm b4 storm." Thanks to NASA, via Ron Garan/@Astro_Ron
Bad News For North Carolina's Outer Banks. The GFDL model is showing 125 mph (Category 3) sustained winds for the Outer Banks of North Carolina by 8 am Saturday morning. That could mean a 10 foot storm surge for portions of the Outer Banks - capable of cutting of Highway 12, the main north-south artery on the barrier island. Map courtesy of Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation.
Timing. Tropical storm-force winds reach the Outer Banks roughly 4 am Saturday, Category 1 winds (74 mph+) by 2:30 pm Saturday afternoon, Category 2 winds (96 mph+) by 3:30 pm, extreme Category 3 winds (111 mph+) by 5 pm Saturday. Map courtesy of Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation.
Category 2 Winds Predicted For Virginia Beach. Hurricane force winds are forecast to reach Virginia Beach, Newport News and the Norfolk area by 1:15 am Sunday, Category 2 winds by 2:45 am Sunday morning. The Navy has ordered all 68 ships out to sea - to avoid damage to Navy vessels (and piers onshore).
Category 1 Winds For New York City? Models are hinting at tropical storm force (40 mph+) winds reaching NYC by 10:15 am Saturday, Category 1 winds (74 mph+) reaching the Big Apple by 5 pm Sunday afternoon, lingering into the evening hours. One plus: Hurricane Irene is forecast to accelerate to the north-northeast, meaning only a few hours of hurricane force winds for New York City and Long Island.
1821: The only hurricane in modern times known to pass directly over parts of New York City pushed the tide up 13 feet in one hour and inundated wharves, causing the East River and the Hudson River to merge across lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street. Deaths were limited since few lived there at the time."
* photo above courtesy of lostmanproject.com.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN FACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
1. Infrastructure and constructionBefore a hurricane watch or warning has been issued, it's a good idea to prepare your home, in case the warning comes with shorter notice than usual. This is especially important for seaside houses and cottages. Long-term steps could include:
- Building artificial reefs to keep high waves from hitting shore.
- Building levees in coastal areas to protect from high water surges.
- Strengthening windows, doors, roofs and outlying buildings against high winds and water swells.
- Having adequate insurance in case of extensive damage."
Step 1: Build A Kit / "To-Go Bag"
Step 2: Make a PlanPrepare your family
Make a Family Emergency Plan. Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so it is important to know how you will contact one another, how you will get back together and what you will do in case of an emergency. You should also consider:
"Currently, Hurricane Irene is expected to severely impact the Outer Banks on Saturday, then take a northward track. On Sunday and Monday, Irene will bring high wind and very heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with hurricane force gusts possible in the Philadelphia and NYC metro areas. Massive beach erosion is expected along the coast. Widespread areas of 5+ inches of rain, falling on already saturated ground, will cause significant flooding of rivers and streams from Washington, DC through New England.
Dew Point Prediction. Dew points reach the low 60s today, and then drop into the upper 40s and low 50s Saturday, the most comfortable day in sight. Dew point temperatures are forecast to slowly rise next week, reaching (uncomfortable) upper 60s and low 70s in the twin Cities by next Thursday and Friday.
MORRIS: If you dive into the weeds a little bit on this global warming thing, you see that it seems that facts are certainly on Huntsman’s side on all of this and fact checkers have come out, we’re actually having our own brain room look look at this right now that any of Perry’s comments don’t seem to hold a lot of water. It doesn’t matter. What’s resonating right now in South Carolina is helping Governor Perry tremendously and he fired back at Huntsman on global warming and gaining traction, facts or not."