Sunday, August 14, 2011

Summer Presses On

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

MONDAY: Lingering sun, still pleasant, but a little muggier. Dew point: 64. High: 82

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds continue to increase with a few showers possible far western and northern Minnesota. A few lingering Perseid Meteorites still visible where clearing persists. Low: 67

TUESDAY: Some sticky sun early, clouds continue to increase with afternoon/evening T-storms (some could be strong). High: 83

WEDNESDAY: Damp start, then clearing. Not as humid. Low: 67. High: near 80

THURSDAY: Low humidity, less wind and bright sun. Dew point: 56. Low: 58. High: 80

FRIDAY: More PM clouds, slight chance of an afternoon shower or storms, especially across the southern half of Minnesota. Low: 63. High: 81

SATURDAYUnsettled. Shower or T-storms possible. Low: 63. High: 81

SUNDAY: Lingering showers over the eastern part of the state, otherwise getting through the day. Low: 64. High: 81

Photo Courtesy State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Every year on the 2nd Saturday in August, my family gets together for our annual family reunion. There are no invites and no RSVPs, everyone just knows to show up with a special dish or two at my aunt and uncles place in Wisconsin who own quite a bit of wooded land. This weekend, for me, marks the time year that I feel an overwhelming sense of Fall knocking on the door... Not only have we lost about an hour and a half of daylight since the longest days of the year back in late June, but I am a seasonal allergy sufferer and I tend to experience subtle signs of the itchy, watery eyes and sneezing around this time of the year (maybe my walk in the woods on Saturday didn't help my symptoms). Don't get me wrong, I LOVE SUMMER and everything that comes with it! It is one of my favorite times of the year. I actually embrace the heat and humidity because the extreme stuff tends to only stick around for a few short weeks and if I had to, I'd rather be outside on a hot summery day rather than a -40F wind chill day. With that said, I've really come to enjoy the change in seasons and especially as we head towards Fall. Other than the Vikings never winning a Superbowl, I love watching the purple and gold, I love being able to make more of those comfort foods (chili, soups, etc.) that don't always sound so appetizing in the summery heat and I love the fall colors that will start to show up within the next month or so, especially up north.

Now, I'm not here to wish the cooler weather on just yet, we still have plenty of warmer weather to enjoy. In fact, this week looks like another fairly mild and at times, somewhat muggy week. The image below shows the extreme heat across the Desert Southwest with some of the heat and humidity spilling into the Plains through the week.

Temps Aloft By Midweek

Local Data - Extended Model Numbers
The extended GFS data suggests that MSP stays in the low to mid 80s all week for daytime high temperatures along with dew point values in the 60s (muggy) today and tomorrow. The muggier stuff will be ahead of a storm system that will bring us shower and thunderstorm chances (better chances) Tuesday afternoon/evening. Dew points then fall into the 50s behind the front Wednesday afternoon & Thursday with lots of sun - these two days look like the pick two days of the week (for now).
  Debris Clouds - Cloudy vs. Sunny
 Thunderstorms upstream from us on Sunday afternoon/evening kept us a little more cloudy during the first half of Sunday. As thunderstorms grow vertically into the atmosphere (sometimes as high as 10 to 15 miles) the stronger upper level winds blow the 'debris clouds' several hundred of mile downstream, which tends to filter out the sun. Depending on where the thunderstorms develop and how the upper level winds are blowing, you can either be enjoying sun or sitting under cloud cover. Take a look at the satellite image below from Sunday afternoon, note how the central and southern part of the state were sitting under 'debris clouds' while the northern half of the state only had a few fair weather cumulus clouds.
Chance For More Debris Clouds
More showers and thunderstorms will be developing across North Dakota late Monday afternoon/evening - the 'debris clouds' will likely move over the state of Minnesota from then on. Central and northern Minnesota will then have a better chance at getting 'debris clouds' later in the day.

Unsettled and Muggy Tuesday Ahead
An approaching storm system will keep our Tuesday warm, muggy and unsettled. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the leading edge of the cool front across western Minnesota late in the day and slide through the rest of the state through the evening.

Tuesday Severe Risk
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather on Tuesday for the areas in the orange below.
An Early Look At Rain For Tuesday Night - Wednesday
An early look at showers and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon/evening into early Wednesday shows the potential for about 0.50" to around 0.75" in spots where storms develop.
Pick Days of the Week
As I mentioned above, the front will be well east of us on Wednesday and Thursday and allow for some slightly cooler and more comfortable conditions to settle in. These two days look like the nicest days of the week with sunshine and drier conditions! Thanks for checking in, have a good week - Todd Nelson

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