49 F. average high for March 30.
44 F. high temperature one year ago; March 30, 2011. We still had 1" of snow on the ground 1 year ago.
+16.3 F. The first 29 days of March are running more than 16 F. above average in the metro. We should easily set a record for the warmest March on record.
81 F. predicted high for Sunday in the Twin Cities. The record is 82, set in 1882.
90 F. highs possible over far southwestern Minnesota tomorrow. That's no April Fools' Day joke.
19 Twin Cities record for warmth between March 10-24. Source: Minnesota Climatology Working Group.
17,834 daily records set across the USA so far in March. Details from Ham Weather below.
|Total Selected Records:||17834|
|Low Max Temp:||631|
|High Min Temp:||6803|
This Weekend: Hints of June, Then Cooler Next Week. I could envision a few T-showers bubbling up just north of MSP later today, again tomorrow afternoon/evening - but I suspect MSP will stay dry. Expect a better chance (opportunity) for a shower, even a T-storm, by Monday as cooler air arrives. NAM model above courtesy of NOAA.
ECMWF: Trending Warmer Next Week Than GFS. We're always weighing models (grueling work), trying to figure out which weather model has the best handle on reality. The NAM has been doing better (recently) with short-range weather, out about 2-3 days, but the European ECMWF has been nailing the longer-range outlook, so I'm inclined to put more weight on the forecast above (you'll be relieved to hear those red forecast highs are in Celsius).
5-Day's Worth of Rain. The latest NOAA QPF Outlook shows some 1-2" rainfall amounts from near Dallas and New Orleans to Macon, Louisville and Scranton. Much heavier amounts are expected over the Pacific Northwest, where some 2-5" amounts are predicted (another 2-3 feet of snow?)
"...Speaking at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, FL this week, Klotbach presented research that suggested key meteorological parameters just weren't ling up for a big season. "With the onset of El Nino, coupled with cooler water now in the tropical Atlantic and higher atmospheric pressure in the formation zone as well, the signals are suggesting a normal to perhaps even below normal 2012 hurricane season," said Klotzbach." Image above courtesy of NASA.
Photo credit above: "Governor Andrew Cuomo has called for changes to the way New York plans for future floods (NCPR File photo)."
Photo credit above: "Timmy Fisher, 12, of Kewaskum, Wis. finishes up his ice cream cone with his parents Jane and Steve, as the group sits outside of the Candy Tree in downtown Kewaskum on Wednesday afternoon, March 14, 2012. The temperatures are expected to stay in the high 60s and low 70s the remainder of the week. (AP Photo/West Bend Daily News, John Ehlke)."
* I actually don’t consider myself in that group because it’s also my job to watch cable news and, by definition, none of that qualifies as “cool stuff.”
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
"Americans can be counted on to do the right thing, after they've exhausted all other possibilities..." - Winston Churchill
- Amalia Palaganas Spagnolo, Hibbing.
Photo credit above: "Saugers and walleyes were falling to Dick "Griz" Grzywinski's jig-and-minnow combinations, March 14, 2012, in Red Wing, Minnesota. (Dennis Anderson/Minneapolis Star Tribune/MCT)."
Photo credit above: "In this undated image taken in Bridgton, Maine, an array of spring daffodils, tulips and grape hyacinth are shown in a garden in early summer. (AP Photo/Rosanne Dombek)."
I have no idea what it's going to take to move things along and start a rational national dialogue (without shouting at each other and the name-calling...I swear we're still in 7th grade, with slightly better wardrobes)...but the status quo is not good for our country. If this keeps up we'll be buying all our wind farms, solar panels and hybrids from China, South Korea, Japan and other countries that (amazingly!) aren't still "debating the science." Are we really going to drill and mine our way to prosperity - indefinitely? I have nothing against drilling and tapping the resources we already have, so long as it's not the only way forward. The trolls can rant and rave all they want - I don't care. Do me a favor and keep track of who the (professional/persistent) deniers are today. Let's come back in a few years and see what they have to say - what excuses they have for ignoring the science and putting our kids at risk. That should be interesting.
Here is a link to Andy Revkin's Dot Earth Blog in the New York Times. Shawn Otto posted the full Op-Ed at his Neorenaissance Blog, and it can also be found at The Huffington Post. And to those of you who have e-mailed, tweeted, texted and called in your support and encouragement. Thank you. I'm no meteorological martyr or Paul Revere - but I've seen enough evidence to make a call on this one. It's either the greatest scientific hoax ever perpetrated on the people of Earth - or the climate scientists are correct. No middle ground on this one. Call me crazy but I think it's possible to lean to the right, and still care about the environment and sound science. If that makes me a "RHINO" (Republican In Name Only) then I wear the badge proudly. Come to think of it...the forecast calls for more rhinos.
Photo credit above: "This undated image made available by Chevrolet shows the 2012 Chevrolet Volt. (AP Photo/General Motors.)"
Photo credit above: "An Indian health official culls a duck to curb the spread of bird flu, as poultry fell ill and died in new areas in the region, in Badha village, Margram, about 270 kilometers (167 miles) north of Calcutta, India, Thursday, Jan. 17, 2008. Fears of bird flu and a pandemic that once dominated headlines have largely vanished in the West, but the virus has quietly continued killing people and poultry in Asia as health experts warn that the threat remains unchanged.(AP Photo/Bikas Das)."
Photo credit above: "In this July 27, 2011 file photo, Range Resources workers stand near the rig that drills into the shale at a well site in Washington, Pa. The company is one of many drilling and "fracking" in the area to release natural gas. The federal government needs to track safety hazards tied to thousands of unregulated pipelines gathering new oil and gas supplies released through the fracking process, according to a new report by the Government Accountability Office. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)."
Photo credit above: "Fred Donath, of Dubuque, Iowa, tries his luck fishing at Heritage Pond in Dubuque after the Iowa Department of Natural Resources stocked the pond with about 1800 rainbow trout Thursday, March 8, 2012. More than 130 million fish are stocked annually into Iowa waters, according to the D.N.R. (AP Photo/Telegraph Herald, Jeremy Portje)."
Photo credit above: "In this March 30, 2004 file photo, Tarawa atoll, Kiribati, is seen in an aerial view. Fearing that climate change could wipe out their entire Pacific archipelago, the leaders of Kiribati are considering an unusual backup plan: moving the populace to Fiji. Kiribati President Anote Tong told The Associated Press on Friday, March 9, 2012 that his Cabinet this week endorsed a plan to buy nearly 6,000 acres on Fiji's main island, Viti Levu. He said the fertile land, being sold by a church group for about $9.6 million, could provide an insurance policy for Kiribati's entire population of 103,000, though he hopes it will never be necessary for everyone to leave. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)."
"Climate change is increasingly polarized within American politics. Yet, political orientation and climate change views are not synonymous, and research identifying the characteristics of counter-normative groups — such as Republicans concerned about climate change — is key to communication strategies to encourage wider acceptance of science-based views about climate change across the political spectrum. The evidence presented here demonstrates that there are distinct and reliable predictors of which Republicans are more likely to believe that climate change is occurring and express support for mitigation policies. While some of these variables (such as religiosity) are relatively inaccessible to climate change communication campaigns, others (such as correctly understanding the scientific consensus that climate change is happening) should likely form the cornerstone of communication efforts. The current study provides strong guidance on where to begin, and where more research is needed to better understand these phenomena."