47 F. average high for March 27.
34 F. high temperature a year ago; March 27, 2011.
+16.7 F. temperatures for the first 26 days of March are running more than 16 F. warmer than average at KMSP.
5.6" snow fell on March 27, 1965
.77" rain predicted for Thursday night and early Friday (NAM model).
March: Going Out Like A...Hot Dish? I couldn't think of a warm-weather mammal in time. I'm tired. This is the best I can do. After a couple more cool days a well-timed warm front arrives for the weekend, low to mid 70s Saturday, a good chance we'll wind up in the 80s on Sunday, before a big temperature tumble next week.
Frost Looks More Likely. We may go from mid 80s Sunday to a chance of frost by the end of next week, the GFS still hinting at 3 or 4 nights at or below freezing between April 6-10. No, we're not quite out of the woods just yet. But wait, there's more!
A Tale Of 3 Seasons: All In The Span Of 72 Hours...? The NAM model prints out a snowy stripe of slush from the Minnesota Arrowhead into northern Michigan and western New York - possibly enough sloppy, wet snow to shovel and plow. Lovely.
Running Out Of Dots. Somewhere down there is a map of the United States (of severe weather). This is a Ham Weather map showing 1 week's worth of records. Red dots: record highs. Yellow dots: record warm nighttime lows. Blue dots: record cold highs, purple dots: record cold lows, and green dots: record 24 hour daily rainfall amounts. 6,985 records in 7 days. I've never seen anything like it:
|Low Max Temp:||154|
|High Min Temp:||3016|
57 mph wind gust reported at 4:05pm Tuesday at Hanley Falls, Minnesota (Yellow Medicine County). Source: MnDOT
3.3:1. In the last 365 days U.S. high temperature records outpace low temperature records by a ratio of 3.3 to 1. Source: NOAA NCDC. Details below.
66.3 F. Sioux City, Iowa has recorded an average high temperature of 66.3 F. so far in March. Not only would this be a record for March - if trends continue through March 31, but if this was the average high for April, it would be the 16th warmest April on record! Source: NWS.
"On Wednesday, about 170 small wildfires were still burning on about 300 acres across the state of Wisconsin, which is now entirely snow free -- a rarity this early in the year. "Weather in Wisconsin is kind of crazy these days," said Catherine Koele, the state's Department of Natural Resources wildfire prevention specialist." - from a Reuters story, details below. March 27 map above courtesy of NOAA's FireDetect link.
|Area Covered By Snow:||8.6%|
|Area Covered Last Month:||29.6%|
"Since 1996, bark beetles have laid waste to 65,000 square miles of U.S. forest – an area roughly the size of Washington State. One reason: winters are often not cold enough to control their numbers." - from an article at the Environmental Defense Fund below.
Last 365 Days:
129,404 weather records in the last year, since March 27, 2011.
68,948 warm weather records, nationwide, in the last year.
20,620 cold weather records, nationwide, the last year.
* 3.3 times more warm weather records than cold records in the last 365 days.
31,770 weather records since January 1, 2012
13,393 warm weather records since March 1, 2012
832 cold weather records, nationwide, since March 1, 2012
* 16 times more warm weather records than cold weather records since March 1, 2012.
Pacific Northwest Drenching. Yes, that's an 11" bulls-eye over southwestern Oregon, a series of strong Pacific storms lashing the west coast with flooding rains and heavy mountain snows. Up to 1" rain is possible from San Antonio and Dallas eastward to Memphis over the next 5 days. Map courtesy of NOAA.
Photo credit above: "Dozens of workers, students, shoppers and others took advantage of the unseasonably warm weather to enjoy the noon hour at Peavey Plaza in downtown Minneapolis. The Plaza is in the heart of downtown. Credit: Jim Gehr, Star Tribune."
“...La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012” (Climate Prediction Center, “El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Diagnostic Discussion”).
"Paul, Please help. We need colder weather in South Dakota. The Turkeys have already started to STRUT bcuz of the warm weather. Turkey season doesn't start til April 14th." - Miles Riker
You're in luck! After a balmy weekend (80 on Sunday?) we cool off the first week of April; I see highs mostly in the 50s, a few nights below freezing from April 4-12. Expect cooler, more seasonably April weather. Good luck out there!
Scotland Sets 3 All-Time Warm Weather Records. Mark Vogan's outstanding weather blog has the details: "Although not just as extreme of the US in terms of margin from old record to new record, in my opinion, it is harder for us to see this type of record-breaking weather than in the US simply because we don't typically get EXTREMES here due to various reasons. However, the tell tale signs have been with us since early last December when we were basically the stormiest place or one of the stormiest places on the planet with every other day seeing severe gale-force winds, torrential rains and damage. On Christmas day, Northern Ireland saw it's warmest Christmas on record while Scotland and the UK fell shy by less than 1C. We also fell just shy of the February record for Scotland by less than 1C, but this month, mother nature says, ya know what, I think it's time to set a record and not once, not twice but three times! Old Record: 22.2C recorded at Gordon Castle in 1957, Sunday's new record: 22.8C at Fyvie Castle, Monday's new record 23.2C at Cromdale, today's new record: at least 23.6C at Aboyne!"
* satellite image courtesy of NASA MODIS and Mark Dunphy.
Photo credit above: "Jorge Tobar works on the framing of a house in Collierville, Tn. for John Worley Jr. Builder Inc. Tuesday, March 13, 2012. Worley expects the price tag to go up on his homes about 2% once new building codes that are designed to improve earthquake resistance and energy efficiency go into effect for all new designs submitted after March 1st. (AP Photo/The Commercial Appeal, Mike Brown)."
- Battery-operated radio (approximately $20 and up)
- Flashlight (approximately $5)
- Extra batteries (approximately $2)
- Do not include candles, which cause more fires after a disaster than anything else
- 3 gallons/person, minimum, in a food-grade, plastic container
- Additional water for sanitation"
Photo credit: "Marcos Dorates tapes up a window of a restaurant in preparation for Hurricane Irene in New York, on Saturday, Aug. 27, 2011. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)."
Photo credit: "A car sits on a flooded street after severe weather passed through the area in Troy, Ala., Friday, March 23, 2012. The National Weather Service says heavy rains are causing flooding in parts of west Alabama. (AP Photo/The Troy Messenger, Robbyn Brooks)."
Photo credit above: "Russia is stopping the mission of the Express-AM4 telecommunication satellite, which was launched in August. At about 17.32 Moscow time on Sunday, the flight control center will descend the satellite from its orbit, and it will fall into the ocean near the Hawaii Islands. To avoid any collisions, the region will be closed for ships and planes for the time of the operation. "
Thanks Tyler - appreciate the compliment, but my wife would beg to differ - but I'm very happy you're tuning into the blog. Why do I spend 4-5 hours/day? I find the process vaguely therapeutic, it helps me uncover (and remember) nuggets I can then use on the air for various clients, and I'm genuinely concerned about climate change and what it means for Minnesota, my kids, and yours. Now, to your question: I watched the video and I suspect what you're seeing are, in fact, brushfires - which are often best illuminated by a rising or setting sun. Nothing else (of this world) would explain those plumes. Keep in mind fires are most likely to kick off late in the afternoon, when humidity levels are lowest, and winds are (usually) the strongest, as high-level winds mix down to the surface. That's my guess: brushfires. The NOAA map above shows all the active fires as of Tuesday evening around the USA. Much of the nation is still very dry - and prone to fire. We need a few (soaking) storms to reduce the overall fire risk.
The Universe In Infrared: Flood Of Galaxy Views To Hit Internet This Year. There are some mind-boggling pics of galaxies I've never seen before - yes, I'm a geek, but I find this stuff fascinating. Space.com has the story: "A catalog of detailed infrared portraits of more than 200 galaxies will be released publicly for the first time later this year, giving people access to exciting views of the cosmos. The pictures were made from data collected by NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope, which is designed to study objects in the universe in infrared light. Some of the images that will be included in the new directory will be unveiled at the U.K.-Germany National Astronomy Meeting, which is being held this week in Manchester, England.
Photo credit above: "A mid-infrared image of M91 as seen by the Spitzer Space Telescope. M91 is the protype example of a barred spiral galaxy. Although the spiral arms are easily seen in mid-infrared light, the bar is only faintly visible. Credit: G.J. Bendou/JBCA/NASA."
Eating Lot's Of Chocolate Helps People Stay Thin, Study Shows. O.K. Counterintuitive, but who am I to argue with scientists. Pass the (dark) chocolate, please. CBS News reports: "What's the best way to stay thin? A new study finds it's exercising and eating a healthy diet full of - chocolate? The study found that people who frequently ate chocolate had a lower body mass index (BMI) than people who didn't. Is it time to ditch fat-free for fudge? For the study, published in the March 26 issue of Archives of Internal Medicine, researchers examined more than 1,000 healthy men and women who were free of heart disease, diabetes and cholesterol problems. They were all enrolled in another study that measured the effects of cholesterol-lowering statin drugs, but for this study researchers assigned them questionnaires that gauged how often participants chowed down on chocolate." Photo credit here.
"Dreaded Dry Tongue" A surge of dry, desert air tangled up in a strong storm over northern Minnesota allowed the sun to come out Tuesday, luring the mercury to 70 in St. Paul, 74 at Eau Claire. MSP International reported a high of 68, 66 at St. Cloud, only 59 at Alexandria.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Mix of clouds and sun, a cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 54
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and brisk. Low: 43
"Weather and climate are flip-sides of the same coin."
Photo credit above: "Photo: Chief Yeoman Mike Shea helps a crane operator move a wrecked vehicle during tornado clean-up efforts in Joplin, Mo. Credit: Wikimedia Commons, U.S. Navy photo by Lt. j.g. Ryan Sullivan/Released."
Photo credit above: "In this combination photo, Doug Hamrick shovels snow off of his family's roof in Anchorage, Alaska on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2012, left, and Katie Cramer looks over the front of her destroyed house in Dexter, Mich. on Friday, March 16, 2012 after a tornado touched down on Thursday night. America's weather is stuck on extreme. Nearly 11 feet of snow has fallen on Anchorage this winter, where the city has already hauled away 250,000 tons of snow. Yet not much snow dropped on the Lower 48. The first three months of the year have seen twice the normal number of tornadoes, killing 55 people. And 36 states broke or tied daily high temperature records on Thursday, March 15, 2012. (AP Photo/Loren Holmes, Carlos Osorio)."
The $22 Trillion Carbon Bubble. This may be one of the more important stories you read about motives behind ongoing climate denial. There's a very real concern that regulations will be put into place to limit how much of the remaining carbon reserves in the USA can be burned, because of concerns about pollution (mainly greenhouse gases contributed to warming). If all the coal, oil and gas is burned - it would almost certainly lead to a worst-case scenario, a possible 6-10 F. warming trend by the end of 2100, which would have a draconian impact on not only weather, but seas levels, water supplies and desertification, worldwide. Think Progress has the details: " The global economy is riding on a financial bubble that dwarfs the subprime crisis — a $22 trillion carbon bubble. On our present pathway, humanity is expected to burn through proven fossil fuel reserves by 2050, making global warming greater than 5°C (9°F) likely and civilizationally catastrophic effects irreversible. To have an 80 percent chance of keeping warming below 2°C, 80 percent of proven reserves need to stay unburned. The present estimated value of these civilization-threatening reserves is approximately $22 trillion."
Computer simulation credit above: "GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center) runoff climatology (observation), (b) the modeled runoff, and (c) the modeled water table depth. These simulations are the first to model global water table (or groundwater level) dynamics, and the first time to represent groundwater dynamics in Global Climate Models (GCMs), which are powerful tools for projecting climate change." Courtesy: University of Texas.
Photo credit above: ** TIME EXPOSURE WITH LIGHT PAINTING ** "In this time exposure, photographer Michael Bosanko, not seen, uses a combination of coloured-gel lights to 'paint' the words 'EARTH HOUR' ,plants and flowers and the WWF logo as he is back-dropped by the landmark St. Stephens tower of the Houses of Parliament in central London, Saturday March 28, 2009. From the Great Pyramids to the Acropolis and the Las Vegas strip, nearly 4,000 cities and towns in 88 countries joined in the (WWF) World Wildlife Fund-sponsored event, a time zone-by-time zone plan to dim nonessential lights between 8:30 p.m. and 9:30 p.m local time to raise awareness about climate change and the threat from rising greenhouse gas emissions. WWF's logo at upper center was exposed with lighting through a cutout. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)."