58 F. afternoon high yesterday at KMSP.
60 F. average high for April 20.
46 F. high temperature on April 20, 2011.
Showers likely today, best chance of a few hours of rain midday and afternoon hours. Have a Plan B, indoors.
Sunday: a bit drier, but clouds linger - a stray shower or sprinkle possible.
70 F. possible by Tuesday in the metro area.
Frost can't be ruled out next Friday morning.
Mostly Rain Today. Models print out .1 to .2" rain for southern Minnesota, closer to .30 to .50" for central Minnesota, over 1" north of Duluth from today's clipper. The atmosphere may be cold enough for a couple inches of slush over the MN Arrowhead.
Gradual Warming Trend. After cooling off a bit today and tomorrow temperatures recover next week, possibly reaching the 65-70 range by Tuesday, before cooling off late next week - a few models hinting at another frost for the outlying suburbs next Friday morning.
Photos Of The Day. I'm continually amazed by the quality of the photos we receive at WeatherNation TV. Here are some of the best I've seen the last 2 days: the great "needle funnel" photo in the upper left from Karl Johnson from Spokane, Washington. The amazing example of cumulonimbus mammatus in the upper right is courtesy of Randy Widmayer, who took the photo at Coeur d'Alene, Washington. What the heck is going on in Washington State?
50yearforecast.org. Check out the work Mark Mesle has put into his new web site; a great source of climate news - and a mechanism to (easily) contact your favorite local meteorologist and ask them to accurately communicate the state of climate science. Details below.
Some Easing Of Drought. There has been some improvement in soil moisture up north, much of the northern third of Minnesota has gone from moderate drought to "abnormally dry". That said, 99.26% of Minnesota is still too dry, just over 23% of the state in a severe drought. The latest MN Drought Monitor is here.
• Make plans to secure your property. Permanent storm shutters offer the best protection for windows. A second option is to board up windows with about 5/8-inch-thick marine plywood, cut to fit and ready to install.
• Install straps of additional clips to securely fasten your roof to the frame structure. This will reduce roof damage.
• Be sure trees and shrubs around your home are well-trimmed.
• Clear loose and clogged rain gutters and down spouts.
• Determine how and where to secure your boat (if you have one).
• Consider building a safe room."
* Image of Hurricane Katrina (2005) above courtesy of NASA and NOAA.
Photo credit above: "This image from the GOES-7 satellite shows Hurricane Andrew at its peak intensity on August 24, 1992 before making landfall near Homestead, FL." Source: NOAA.
Photo credit above: "Sunken fishing boats in the harbor after tsunami swells from the earthquake in Japan last week stuck the area in heights of up to eight feet, in Crescent City, Calif., March 15, 2011. The city has long been known as one of the nation’s most susceptible inlets when it comes to tsunami, and this past week's tsunami has left damages believed to be in the tens of millions of dollars, shutting down one of Northern California’s most lucrative fishing operations. (Jim Wilson/The New York Times)."
"As we were trying to watch TV tonight we were constantly interrupted with annoying tornado "test" warnings. We realize it is tornado awareness month, but we are used to tests on the first Wednesday of the month. The tests said they were supposed to expire at 7:10 but they were still broadcast well after 8:00. All of this at the same time the weather service has been trying to get us to take actual warnings seriously! Tornado warnings are too much like the little boy who called "Wolf" and this did not improve matters." - Anonymous.
"Paul...Doug...Steve...Oh Just Call Me Whatever." Hey, these days I'm just happy when it's not an obscenity.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
50yearforecast.org. A tip of the hat to Mark Mesle, who has created an effective web site, on that aggregates climate stories, and gives you a simple tool for contacting local meteorologists. I've seen some recent polls that suggest nearly 50% of local meteorologists are still skeptical about climate change, and whether there's a human component. That compares with 97-98% who are adamant that the data is there to make the linkage and connect the dots. That's a serious disconnect. Some skeptics will never come around, no matter how strong the data (there are a few people who still believe stratospheric ozone and acid rain are both "hoaxes"), but I'm confident that, in the end, reason (and sound science) will eventually prevail.
Photo credit above: "Clouds form over an empty road, in Kearney, Nebraska. Photograph by Ryan McGinnis."
* Let me anticipate the comments (which I don't read, and never will). All this negativity and angst. Yes, I'm a "RINO", a hypocrite (I only own one hybrid and my 1950s home isn't nearly as energy efficient as it could be - or will be). I'm a bit of a creep, an opportunist, a lousy businessman (my companies over the years employed less than 250 people), a terrible father, an inconsiderate husband (still married to the same poor woman for 28 years. Imagine that.) I have bad hair and a very bad attitude on Mondays... and at times I'm SO full of myself. All true. I had a case of adult acne in my 30s, I don't floss regularly, I can be anti-social and I watch "Shameless" on Showtime (to balance out NOVA and Frontline on PBS). I have a terrible digital camera addiction too - you got me there. And those are some of my better attributes.
Dear Deniers: you're welcome to your opinions - but you are not free to make up your own scientific facts. You call me an alarmist? The data - the trends are a bit alarming, and if you're not just a little bit concerned about the direction we're heading you're not paying attention. As the data becomes more clear the professional skeptics are sounding more shrill. "We can't win on the facts, conditions on the ground (or in the air), so let's resort to name-calling. It's 4th grade all over again. The concept of "actions have consequences" (somehow) threatens their world-view and everything they hold dear. Here's some advice: get over it. Given the facts, the data, and the trends, it's OK to change your mind, however reluctantly. I promise you won't get a thank you card from Al Gore. Or me.
Photo credit above: "ARAM BOGHOSIAN FOR THE BOSTON GLOBE."
- Arctic Warming Favors Extreme, Prolonged Weather Events ‘Such As Drought, Flooding, Cold Spells And Heat Waves’
- Is Climate Change Bringing the Arctic to Europe?
- Hansen et al: “Extreme Heat Waves … in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 Were ‘Caused’ by Global Warming”
Photo credit above: "A tornado makes its way through farmlands near Rush Center, Kansas, on April 14, 2012. Over 100 tornadoes ripped through several Plains states in just 24 hours that weekend." Gene Blevins / Reuters.
- 82 percent of Americans report that they personally experienced one or more types of extreme weather or a natural disaster in the past year;
- 35 percent of all Americans report that they were personally harmed either a great deal or a moderate amount by one or more of these extreme weather events in the past year;
- Over the past several years, Americans say the weather in the U.S. has been getting worse – rather than better – by a margin of over 2 to 1 (52% vs. 22%)."
-- "Both the U.S. and Canada are developing technologies to better track increased shipping traffic in the Arctic.
-- Shell Oil is exploring for oil and natural gas in the Beaufort Sea, just north of Alaska, and Exxon Mobile has just signed a deal with the Russians to do the same thing in their Arctic waters.
-- In 2009, because “evidence indicates that the Earth’s climate is changing, and the most rapid changes are occurring in the Arctic,” the U.S. Navy created Task Force Climate Change to help naval leaders deal with the significant climatic changes in the Arctic.
-- The Pacific island nation of Kiribati is negotiating to buy land on the island of Fiji so it will have some place to move its 113,000 people before the Pacific Ocean inundates the entire nation (the first of thousands of islands so threatened)."
Photo credit above: J. Scott Applewhite/AP. "Congressional Republicans have a unique achievement, they are further from the political center than their predecessors of the past century."