81 F. average high for June 23.
63 F. high on June 23, 2011
Trace of rain fell at KMSP Saturday.
Mid 90s likely Wednesday and Thursday in the metro area.
7 days at or above 90 F. so far this year in the Twin Cities.
14 days of 90+ heat during an average summer (whatever that is).
20+ days above 90 F. My prediction for the number of 90-degree days this year. I hope I'm wrong.
Today, June 24: Dave Matthews Band
The Flaming Lips · Puscifer · Polica · AWOLNATION · Diplo · MuteMath · Delta Spirit · K.Flay · AM & Shawn Lee · Mexican Institute of Sound · Civil Twilight · Hey Rosetta! · Kids These Days · Yuna
A Fine Summer Day. Expect a brisk north/northeast breeze (10-20 mph), sunshine most of the day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Midweek Heat. Enjoy our relatively comfortable weather today and Monday, because we heat up above 90 by Wednesday - I wouldn't be surprised to see mid-90s Wednesday and Thursday, with some slight relief by Saturday; more 90s next Sunday and Monday. I'm feeling better about my forecast of 20+ days above 90 this year. Graphic above shows ECMWF (European) data in Celsius.
10% of Duluth's roads and utility infrastructure damaged by Wednesday's historic flooding. 100+ roads still closed.
Photo credit above: "Lake Superior was filled with mud from flood runoff looking east from Duluth toward Wisconsin, Thursday, June 21, 2012." (Glen Stubbe/Minneapolis Star Tribune/MCT)
Cost Of Minnesota Flood Estimated At $100 Million. Details from The New York Times: "The waters in Duluth are receding, but the damage is done: the northeastern Minnesota city estimates more than $100 million will be required to repair utilities, streets, parks and trails in the city and surrounding county of St. Louis, said Pakou Ly, a spokeswoman for Duluth. The State Department of Transportation estimates its roads have sustained $20 million worth of damage."
Photo credit above: "Highway 23 was still a waterfall Friday, June 22, 2012 in the Fond du Lac neighborhood of Duluth." Photo courtesy of Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune.
The Extra-Wide Mississippi. I snapped this photo Saturday morning, on Highway 4 just northeast of Brainerd. It's hard to tell from this perspective, but water levels were higher than anything I've ever witnessed.
Close To A Record. As of 7 pm Saturday the Mississippi at Brainerd was less than 1/2" below the all-time record level of 16.7 feet, set on April 30, 2001. Graphic: NOAA.
7.41" rain fell on Island Lake (St. Louis County) on June 20, the second state rainfall record so far in June. Source: Dr. Mark Seeley.
Photo credit above: "Residents of Cannon Falls, MInn. survey the damage to Minnieska Park and a swollen Cannon River in Cannon, Minn. Friday morning June 15, 2012 following over night rains that dumped over 8 inches of rain on the area causing many area rivers to overflow their banks." (AP Photo/The Rochester Post-Bulletin, Jerry Olson)
102 F. high in Denver, Colorado Friday, a record high for June 22.
Photo credit above: "Youths cool down with an opened fire hydrant in New York, June 21, 2012. Record-high temperatures marked the second day of summer in the city." (Angel Franco/The New York Times)
Photo credit above: "The small town of Brookston, northwest of Cloquet, Minnesota was feeling the heat of the rising St. Louis River Thursday morning, June 21, 2012." (Photo by Brian Peterson/Minneapolis Star Tribune/MCT)
Photo credit above: "A submerged mail box is the only sign of the driveway for this flooded home on Lakeshore Drive in Moose Lake, Minn., Thursday, June 21, 2012. The waters of the Moose Horn river overflowed in to parts of Moose Lake after record rainfall hit the area." (AP Photo/The Duluth News-Tribune, Clint Austin)
Photo credit above: "RVs in the Moose Lake, Minn., city park and RV campground are stranded in water overflow from the nearby Moosehead Lake on Thursday, June 21, 2012. Damage assessment teams from the Federal Emergency Management Agency are expected to be in the area next week to start tallying the damage to public infrastructure in 14 counties and one Indian reservation." (AP Photo/The Duluth News-Tribune, Bob King)
A warmer atmosphere is now flavoring all weather events, making winter snows more sporadic, reducing the number of subzero lows, keeping ice on area lakes for fewer days, and increasing summer dew points and humidity levels, doubling the number of 3"+ downpours since 1961, according to a new study that came out in May. This warmer "background hum" is our new reality. It will continue to manifest itself in strange, and (at times) violent ways in the years to come. The truth: the rain isn't falling as gently as it did for our grandparents. This trend will ultimately impact everything from how we build our roads and homes to agriculture; engineering new strains of crops that are more resistant to downpours and (increasing) bouts of drought. The weather models we use are having a tough time keeping up with this brave new Weather 2.0 environment - the maps are crazy: just two months ago most of Minnesota was in an extreme drought - now we're faced with one of the wettest Junes in Minnesota state history. Just when you think you've seen it all...
Photo credit above: "The Lester River flows through a gash it created in Jean Duluth Road north of Duluth, Minn., Thursday morning, June 21, 2012. City, county and state officials spent Thursday assessing damage, while areas farther south continued to fight rising floodwaters. The town of Moose Lake was being described as "an island." (AP Photo/The News-Tribune, Bob King)
Debby: Destined To Remain A Tropical Storm? Only one model strengthens Debby to hurricane force before landfall - odds favor Debby will come ashore as a tropical storm. Source here.
Photo credit above: Climate Central and flickr/afagen
Photo credit above:
"Ask Paul". Weather-related Q&A:
Subject: Maybe it is rocket science
"Read your column today and I feel for you. For the last few months I have been working my way through a DVD course on meteorology (taught by Prof. Robert Fovell, if that means anything to you). I have gotten through 16 lectures and still haven't got to storms. Nonetheless, I no longer wonder why you guys don't always get it right. Instead, I wonder why you even try."
If it was just a matter of moving a storm or front from Point A to Point B the process would be straightforward and somewhat trivial. That's what many people assume. "Paul, it's raining in North Dakota today, it'll reach Minnesota tomorrow!" Duh. It's not that easy. Storms pop (literally) out of thin air; they mutate as they move along. Trying to predict which storm cells will grow and intensify, and which storms will fizzle and die, is a science within a science.
Most days we're like frazzled weather-doctors, looking at symptoms, trying our best to come up with a real-time meteorological diagnosis on the fly. Out of 100 storms on Doppler maybe 3-5 will mutate and become severe. These storms often give off tell-tale signs (sudden spike in lightning strikes, large hail, "right turners"). These are the storms that may cause damage and injury, so we focus on these. But most people just want to know "what time will it rain at MY HOUSE?? The analogy is looking at a traffic map on Google and trying to time precisely what time you'll walk in the door at home. You can get close, but there are thousands of variables, timing traffic lights, new traffic entering the pattern, etc - that ultimately impact your commute time. A few new NOAA weather models show promise (my favorite is the HRRR model, which goes out 12 hours). Most summer days we can give a 3-6 hour lead time, but if storms mushroom suddenly along a dormant frontal boundary we're often caught with our Dopplers down. That's what happened last Sunday (Father's Day). Long explanation - sorry. Thanks for the note, and for recognizing how difficult the forecast process is, especially during the summer months.
What The Heck Is This? I'm no entomologist - and I haven't a clue what this thing is that landed on the steps of my cabin. Any educated guesses out there?
Sudden Urge For Mexican Food. O.K. For the record, it's the "Fujita Scale". Close enough. Thanks to failblog.org.
Enough Said. Thanks to all the modern-day American heroes still serving overseas - you're very much in our thoughts and prayers.
Works For Me. Over the years viewers have sent me a wide assortment of "weather rocks". Hey, they work!
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Warm sun, breezy and pleasant. Dew point: 62. Winds: NE 10-20. High: 83
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear and cooler. Low: 57
Big Bug Alert
Here Come The Ticks: Is Global Warming Leading To An Increase In Lyme Disease? I'm hearing from a lot of people that the tick population is much higher this year than previous years - maybe the result of our non-existant winter, coupled with recent heavy rains? Not sure, but this article at scienceblogs.com caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "Climatologists have been warning us about the ongoing and impending consequences of global warming for years. But the results of climate change affect more than just polar bears and penguins – if you live anywhere in the northeastern, north-central or west coast states of the U.S.., you could be at a greater risk for contracting Lyme Disease. Lyme disease is an infection of the Borrelia burgdorferi bacterium that is spread through black legged ticks (otherwise known as deer ticks) who feed on the white footed mouse species, also known as the wood mouse, which carries the bacteria. The symptoms of the disease itself include fever, headache, fatigue, and a telltale “bulls eye” rash near the site of the tick-bite. Left untreated, Lyme disease can spread to affect the joints (causing arthritis), heart, and nervous system – often causing irritability and mood swings." Photo above courtesy of wikipedia.
Better Buildings Can Combat Climate Change. Retrofitting older, far less efficient commercial buildings, will be big business in the years ahead; here's an excerpt of a story at canada.com: "As the globe grapples with ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption to mitigate the effect of climate change, much of the attention has focused on automobiles and industry as the culprits. In fact, it may be surprising to know that the single largest contributors to climate change are buildings. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), industry contributes almost 20 per cent of America’s yearly greenhouse gas emissions; the transportation sector is responsible for 33 per cent and buildings emit fully 47 per cent of GHGs."
Photo credit above: B+H BuntingCoady.
Photo credit above: "A hazy day in Wuhan, China, the country that has experienced a 240% increase in carbon emissions between 1992 and 2010." Photograph: Darley Shen/Reuters.
Photo credit: USGS.
The joys and perils of air conditioning....
Image above: NASA.
Graph credit above: Blok et al. "Bridging the greenhouse-gas emissions gap" Washington Post.