83 F. average high for July 31.
93 F. high on July 31, 2011
37. Today will be the 37th consecutive day above 80 F. in the metro, the 25th day above 90 F. this year.
Mid-90s likely today. The 00z NAM is hinting at upper 90s for some towns south of the metro by mid afternoon.
July Record: every day last month brought high temperatures above 80 F. That hasn't happened since modern-day weather records were started in 1891. Both 1916 and 1936 came close, with 30 days above 80.
93-96 F. After a welcome weekend cool front heat builds again next week. The ECMWF is hinting at mid 90s returning by Tuesday of next week. Something to look forward to.
Photo credit above: "A worker runs soybeans through a machine in a warehouse belonging to a tofu factory in Jakarta, Indonesia, July 25." Supri/Reuters.
Photo credit: "Cattle seek shade from 100-degree temperatures at a partially dried up pond near Aplin, Ark., Tuesday, July 31, 2012. Cattle and poultry producers in Arkansas are continuing to feel the effects of the summer-long drought." (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)
Photo credit above: "U.S. Congressman John Shimkus, left, speaks on Friday July 27, 2012 with Luke Timmermann in one of Timmermann's remaining corn fields at his St. Rose, Illinois dairy farm. He raises the corn as feed for his dairy operation, and has had to harvest much of it and place it in long-term storage as silage for the livestock due to the drought. The corn is stunted in size and development due to the drought and despite Timmermann's efforts to increase size and yield." (AP Photo/Belleville News-Democrat, Tim Vizer)
Significant Weather Events:
- Drought conditions expanded throughout the month, peaking at over 60% of the U.S. by late-month. This is the most pervasive drought in over 50 years, with the most severe conditions in the Central Plains and Missouri Valley.
- July began with a heat wave spreading across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. The Independence Day holiday was the warmest in over 50 years.
- New England has experienced the greatest change, with intense rainstorms and snowstorms now happening 85% more often than in 1948. The frequency of intense rain or snowstorms nearly doubled in Vermont and Rhode Island, and more than doubled in New Hampshire. The change has also been pronounced in the Mid-Atlantic, the South, the Midwest and the Mountain West. New York, Pennsylvania and Missouri each experienced an increease in extreme dounpour frequency of more than 50%. In total, 43 states showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme donwpours. Only one state, Oregon, experinced a significant decrease.
- The factual basics: The average temperature in the United States has increased by 2 F. over the last 50 years. Nine of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2000. Warmer temperatures increase evaporation and enable the air to hold more water. Scientists have found that the water content of the atmosphere is now increasing at a rate of about 1.3% per decade. The additional moisture loaded into the atmosphere by global warming provides more fuel for intense rainstorms and snowstorms. All of which means that global warming will very likely drive future increases in extreme downpours, with a wide range of harmful consequences from catastrophic flooding to property damage. From the USGCRP: "Heavy downpours that are now 1-in-20 year occurrences are projected to occur about every 4 to 15 years by the end of this century." its report said, while producing 10 to 25% more precipitation per storm, depending on location and on the scale of future emissions of global warming pollution.
* the full 47 page report from Environment Minnesota is here. (pdf).
Photo credit above: "Commuters wait for buses outside a Metro station after Delhi Metro rail services were disrupted following power outage in New Delhi, India, Tuesday, July 31, 2012. A massive blackout hit northern and eastern India on Tuesday afternoon, leaving 600 million people without electricity in one of the world's most widespread power failures. The outage came just a day after India's northern power grid collapsed for several hours leaving cities and villages across eight states powerless."
Graphic credit above: "Tornado counts after adjusting for the effects of inflation due to changes in tornado observation methods."
- = heat index (in degrees Fahrenheit)
- = ambient dry-bulb temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit)
- = relative humidity (in percent)
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Map credit above: "The image on the left is from 8 July 12, while that on the right is from 12 July 2012, showing a profound increase in reflectivity of the landmass. Such increased reflectivity indicates a transition from solid ice and snow to liquid water." Image courtesy of Nasa.gov.
* That faint, distant rustle is the sound of (professional) climate deniers grasping at straws:
Satellite Data Confirm Warming Trend Globally And In The U.S. Professor Mandia further noted that "The rate of warming measured in the US is in line with satellite inferred trends and satellites do not have thermometers nor are they 'poorly sited.'" The following graph (above) created with 2010 data provided by NOAA shows that surface temperatures for the continental U.S. (red and blue bars) closely track two methods of analyzing satellite temperatures (yellow and teal lines)."