By Todd Nelson
Thanks to a high amplitude weather pattern, the United States weather has been a little stuck. A large ridge of high pressure in the west has allowed several high temperature records to pop up like San Francisco, CA. On Monday they climbed to 79F and 78F on Tuesday. Downtown Los Angeles tipped the scales at 94F Tuesday; mercury at the LAX Airport soared to 91F. On the other side of the coin, temperatures in the eastern half of the country have been below average for several days. Thanks to a large trough of low pressure, November temps close to home are running nearly 2F below average through the first 7 days of the month.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 6 to 10 day outlook keeps us below average as a large storm over the Pacific Northwest blows through. This in one of those classic Fall storms that would be considered in the "Gales of November" realm if its track would be closer to the Great Lakes region. In stead, this massive storm will blow up just west of us with generous snow amounts; 12" or more from Montana to North Dakota. We'll be on its warmer flank meaning rain and thunder?
Big jackets will return after the cold front -Todd Nelson
Todd's CONSERVATION MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota (and western Wisconsin too):
THURSDAY: Sunshine! Mild south breeze. High 52.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 34
FRIDAY: Turning breezy. Clouds thicken, drizzle/light rain possible late? High 50. Low 42.
SATURDAY: Wintry mix lifts north. growing thunder potential across far southern MN late. High 61. Low 37.
SUNDAY: Breezy and much cooler. A few AM flurries? High 38. Low 23.
MONDAY: Jacket worthy, more afternoon sun. High: 33. Low: 21.
TUESDAY: Felling like late November. High: 38. Low: 26
WEDNESDAY: Chilly breeze:. High: 40. Low: 32.
“12:38PM EST November 7. 2012 – New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said Wednesday that emergency teams were building up badly eroded beach dunes before the full brunt of of a nor’easter hits the state’s Sandy-battered coastline, bringing high winds, snow and another round of storm surges. In addition, state environmental officials urged local towns to move sand pushed inland by Superstorm Sandy back onto ocean beaches in an effort to provide shore protection from the storm, he said. “We’re doing what we need to do to prepare for this, just like we did for Hurricane Sandy,” Christie told reporters. “We’re prepared.” The National Weather Service predicted the storm would last into Thursday, bringing wind and wet snow to New Jersey, up to three inches of snow to Philadelphia and from six to 12 inches of snow to southeastern New York and New England.”
**The first average measurable snowfall for Philly is Dec 18. The first average snowfall equal to or greater than 1″ is Dec 31.
**First measurable snowfall in Philly in 2011 was Oct 29 (Snowtober) when they was 0.3″ (which was a record for the day).
**Philly averages 0.3″ of snow in November, with an average seasonal total of 22.8″.
**Most snow Philly has seen in a November day was back on Nov. 27, 1938 when 6.9″ fell.
**Wednesday’s snow record for KPHL is 3.4″ set in 1953. Thursday’s snow record is 0.8″ in 1892.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OF ONE TO TWO FEET ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
* WINDS: NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW…ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN AREAS.
* VISIBILITY: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND ICY AT THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL. LOWER ELEVATION ROADWAYS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME ICY AND SNOW-COVERED BY SUNSET THURSDAY. THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING AND WINTER CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 0 CAN CAUSE FROSTBITE IN LITTLE TIME.