Monday, November 5, 2012

Son of Sandy; Nor'Easter Forecast to Hit the Northeast After Election Day

Son of Sandy

By Todd Nelson

Not sure about you, but I'm glad that it's Election Day. For me, it means that I don't have to watch all those political attack ads or field anymore phone calls wondering who I'm voting for, good grief!
It might be a little soggy at the polls, early in the day as a weak clipper system blows through. The best chance for a little rain/snow mix will be north and east, but whatever falls won't be enough to disrupt travel plans to get out and vote.

Folks in the Northeast, reeling after last weeks Superstorm, will have a fairly quiet day today, but will be keeping a close eye on the next storm/Nor'Easter ready to pounce by midweek. The effects from this storm won't be quite as damaging or widespread, but it will certainly put a damper on cleanup efforts. A "Greenland Blocking High" will help to steer this next storm up the coast with minor coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rain and some snow - typical of a Nor'Easter. To add insult to injury, northern New Jersey had a 2.0 magnitude earthquake early Monday!

Closer to home, we are watching a potential storm by the weekend. North Dakota could get a bunch of snow, we could hear thunder! Stay tuned -Todd Nelson
Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota (and western Wisconsin too):

TUESDAY: Breezy. Soggy at the polls early. High: 48. Winds: Turning WNW 10-15mph Gusts to 20mph

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing trend. Low: 32

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny November day. High 47. Low 33.

THURSDAY: Another quiet, sunny day. High 50. Low 35.

FRIDAY: Turning breezy. Clouds thicken, drizzle possible late. High 49. Low 42.

SATURDAY: Rain, isolated thunder possible. High 61. Low 36.

SUNDAY: Breezy and much cooler. A few flurries? High 39. Low 28.

MONDAY: Chilly northwesterly breeze. High: 38. Low: 26.

Thanks to Nasim Farjad for this picture out of NYC, where gas seems to be a hot commodity. Not only does it appear to very expensive, but there are signs for “No Gas”!
From CBS News in New York: “Governor Andrew Cuomo announced that officials expect the fuel shortage that has been causing long lines and short tempers at New York gas stations, to continue for several days.”"

Adding Insult to Injury
To make matters potentially worse for folks in the Northeast, there was a small earthquake earlier today in northern New Jersey!
As residents of New Jersey attempted to bounce back from the devastating effects of Hurricane Sandy, they were faced with another force of nature on Monday — an earthquake. According to the US Geological Survey, a magnitude-2.0 quake struck at 1:19 am and was centered two miles south-southeast of Ringwood, New Jersey, not far from the border with New York.”
Read more from the Inquisitr HERE:

More Potential Bad News
How about this… weather models continue to indicate a developing Nor’Easter by midweek. Keep in mind that this storm WILL NOT be as strong as the system last week, but there will be some unfortunate impacts on places that are still trying cleanup from last weeks Superstorm. The image below shows the latest GFS solution by midday Wednesday. According to the GFS, the low pressure center is forecast to be around 986mb, whereas the system last week was down to 944mb as it made landfall in southern New Jersey.

ECMWF Solution
This is the model that grabbed onto the doomsday outcome with the Superstorm last week before any other model. Others started to come in line with this particular model over the week, but the Euro had it almost a week out! With that said, here is what the ECMWF (Euro) model has in store for folks in the Northeast by Wednesday. Here too, the center of the storm is not as strong as last week, but still an appreciative Nor’Easter just offshore.

“Son-of-Sandy” – Storm Surge
One-Two Punch. This will not be “Son of Sandy” or “Sandy II”, but we’re still dealing with a significant storm, capable of pushing a surge toward the coast. By Wednesday evening winds (well offshore) are forecast to reach 55-65 mph. The strongest winds will pass east of the coast, but these sustained winds will help to carve out another significant storm surge, most pronounced during high tide Thursday morning.

Peak Storm Surge
Keep in mind – during Sandy we were showing you NOAA storm surge predictions as high as 12-14 feet in Long Island Sound, and over 7-8 feet along the Jersey shore. The map above is the surge forecast at 10 pm Wednesday night, showing a projected surge of 4-5 feet above normal sea level in Long Island Sound. This surge will be magnified during high tide (see below).

Growing Concerns for Jersey Shore
NOAA models are suggesting a storm surge as high as 7-8 feet for Atlantic City shortly after midnight Wednesday night, coinciding with high tide. Although not as severe as with Sandy, coastal flooding for New Jersey may be significant once again, and additional damage cannot be ruled out, with the greatest push of water coming ashore midday Wednesday, again closer to midnight Wednesday night – water levels receding on Thursday.

More Minor/Moderate Flooding At Manhattan’s Battery
Water levels will rise across Lower Manhattan, and some of the same neighborhoods that flooded from Staten Island to Queens, Brooklyn, and coastal Long Island and Connecticut. This won’t be as severe as Sandy (when a surge of 10-14 feet was reported at the height of the storm), but low-lying areas may see more problems, especially during the wee hours of the morning Thursday.

the Nor’easter we’ve been telling you about since late last week is still coming; some additional coastal flooding is likely from a moderate storm surge whipped up by 40-60 mph winds offshore, coupled with the astronomical forcing of high tide. The worst conditions will come late Wednesday into midday Thursday.

Flooding Potential: Coastal & Inland
Although not as severe as Sandy – precautions should be taken once again for facilities within 4-8 feet of sea level. One silver lining: inland rain from this Nor’easter will not be as extreme (some 1-3” rains), so flash flooding well away from the coast won’t reach the levels we experienced during Sandy.

More Snow Potential
I am noticing the potential for decent snow amounts with this storm. The higher elevations will likely see the heaviest of the wet, sloppy accumulation. Stay tuned as this snow forecast could change dramatically!

Major Difference Between Storms
I think it is important to note where the two storms are coming from and why there are different. Last week, we had a hurricane (Sandy) that got caught up in the upper level winds and sucked into a cold air move over the Northeast. You were taking an already very strong storm and making it even stronger by changing the dynamics of the system… something that doesn’t happen very often. This week, we are watching a much weaker “Clipper” system that will intensify into a larger system offshore. Sure, this will be a typical Nor’Easter with several coastal impacts, but nowhere near the size of Sandy last week.

Why So Many Storms?
Interestingly, the “Greenland High” or a blocking high near Greenland is having an impact on our weather locally. Because of this very large bubble of high pressure, storm systems can’t escape out to sea. They actually get caught in the strong upper level wind, which drags them north through the Northeast and into the Canadian Maritimes.

Where is the Storm Now?
The image below shows the impulse of energy expected to bring wild weather once again to the Northeast by midweek. For now, it’s just a little weak clipper drifting through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Eying Next Storm
Take a look at the longer range forecast below. The latest NAM forecast suggests a fairly large bundle of energy entering the West Coast region by mid/late week. This could be an interesting turn of events for folks in the middle part of the country through the end of the week/weekend ahead!

Major Winter Storm?
This next storm has the potential to bring a major winter storm to parts of the High Plains by late week/weekend ahead! The latest GFS solutions suggests there could be 10+ from Montana to North Dakota. This is still a developing system, so things probably change.

Thanks for checking in on this Monday, have a great rest of your week!
Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

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