Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Developing Late Weekend Snow Storm??

No respect
By Paul Douglas

Rodney Dangerfield was a weatherman at heart. How many (reasonably sane) people do you know who predict the future, in public, every day? The 15 percent of the time we're wrong, on average, we get vilified. The majority of the time we're close? "Hey, so what - it's your JOB!" My parents are very proud.

Yesterday was National Weatherperson's Day. My big gift? Less cynicism than usual. And that was from my wife. No respect.

A family of pesky Alberta Clippers have been nibbling away at our extended snow drought; another inch of snow is possible today. Breaking News! Highs approach 30 F late week; a blessed thaw by Saturday may put a little spring (and slush) in your step. And then it gets interesting, a euphemism for "high bust potential", which means "there's much that can go amok."

The normally reliable ECMWF (European) model, which often does a better job than U.S. weather simulations, brings a big, wet, sloppy southern storm into Minnesota on Sunday. It's still early, but a mix Sunday morning may change over to wet snow Sunday afternoon & night, before tapering. There's even a potential for a "few inches" by Monday morning.

Plowable? Maybe. Alert the MN National Guard.

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
WEDNESDAY: Light snow develops. Coating to 1" - mainly north. High: 28.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lingering light snow. Low: 21
THURSDAY: Light AM snow/flurries. Slow clearing. High: 29
FRIDAY: More sun, feeling better out there. Wake-up: 14. High: 28
Saturday: Wintry mix develops later. Wake-up: 21. High: 33.
Sunday: Snow possible. Wake-up: 30. High: 31.
MONDAY: Slushy start, lingering light snow. Low: 18. High: 27.
TUESDAY: Better travel day. Some sun and cooler. Low: 8. High: 24

BTW - I forgot to mention that Tuesday (February 5th) was National Weatherperson's Day and National Pancake Day... How could I forget about Pancake Day?!?! National Weatherperson's Day coincides with John Jeffries birthday 2/5/1744 who was one of the United States' first weather observers who took daily weather observations from 1774 to 1816.

Fresh Snow in February
Thanks to JohnDee.com for the picture below out of Allouez, MI north of Houghton on the Keeweenaw peninsula. Nice to see all that fresh snow John! Hope it keeps up!! Take a look at the wonderful and extensive list of webcams on JohnDee.com HERE:

Chicago Snow
Chicago had more snow Tuesday making it a nice string of snow so far this month. Get this, through Monday, Chicago had seen 5.2" of snow through the first 4 days of the month, which is more than half of what they've seen all season! Even with the recent snow, Chicago is still nearly a foot below normal for the season!

Snow Tallies
Here are some of the recent snow tallies (updated through Monday). Thanks to the persistent Northwesterly flow, we've seen quite a bit of snow through the first few days of the month!

2013 vs. 2012
I thought this was interesting. Take a look at the snow cover from February 1st, 2012 to 2013. Note how big of a difference there is this year vs. the lackluster winter of 2012!

More Snow Stats
These clipper system have been dropping into the Lower 48 across the High Plains/Upper Midwest. Since Friday, there have been 4 clippers that have run through the area. The last clipper in the clipper train... the clipper caboose, will move through Wednesday/Thursday.

Snow Cover 2012 vs. 2013
The image below is the snow cover difference this year to last. Note how different the landscape looks here too!

Clipper Caboose
The clipper caboose will be the last car in the clipper train since it all started late last week. In all, there will have been 5 clipper events that have dropped snow since the beginning of February.

Clipper Caboose Drops In...
The image below shows the accumulated precipitation from the High Plains to the Great Lakes through PM Thursday as our final clipper system drops in the region. Note the heavier band that looks to set up over Wisconsin and Lower Michigan.

Snow Potential
Note how snow amount ramp up over the Central Great Lakes Region Wednesday into Thursday as the storm pushes east. It appears that 6"+ may be possible in the Central Great Lakes Region through that time!

Look what happens to the storm as it slides east... A Nor'Easter? There are still quite a few uncertainties here, but the end of the week/early weekend could get quite interesting for folks in the Northeast. Shovel potential is increasing!!

GFS Snowfall Forecast
Looks at the extended snowfall forecast for the Northeast through AM Saturday. The orange color indicates snowfall potential of 6" or more! Keep in mind that there will be wind with the system as well, so blowing snow would be a problem if indeed this system holds it's course.

Next Big Storm?
A storm system wrapping up in the Pacific could also make for an interesting weather scenario in the middle part of the country by late weekend/early next week. A low pressure system is forecast to lift northeast into the Great Lakes Region with heavy snow on it's northwest flank and strong/severe storms across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The image below is the latest ECWMF (European Model) update. It still shows a fairly robust system on Sunday!

By Monday, the storm looks to be wrapping up over the Great Lakes with lots of wind. Keep in mind that this forecast WILL LIKELY CHANGE, so stay tuned!

Humorous Forecast??
I just about fell off my chair when I saw this meteogram... DON'T BUY INTO WHAT GFS IS SELLING!!! This forecast WILL CHANGE... Thought I'd just share what kind of *wishcasting* is going on by weather models near you.

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

1 comment:

  1. criticism is directedwith the Wang blond hairand people cocktail dressesopportunists.A good number