62 F. average high on April 23.
65 F. high on April 23, 2012.
3" snow on the ground as of Tuesday evening.
17.9" snow so far in April. Third snowiest April on record for KMSP.
31.7" snow since March 1.
67.2" snow so far this winter season.
70 F. possible by Saturday afternoon - likely Sunday thru Tuesday of next week.
"In terms of weather returning to normal or above normal temperature for a change...
There is no question snow will melt rapidly in the next week. We have experienced rapid melts in the past and those are reflected in our probabilistic forecasts. We feel more confident about the melt and river forecasts today knowing temperatures will finally trigger a basin-wide melt for both the Red and upper Mississippi Rivers, finally.
We feel confident that there will be no significant rainfall during that melt period.
The upper end of our river forecast possibilities (meaning the higher river levels) factor in a rapid melt and heavy rainfall, based on decades of previous temperature and precipitation records. Therefore, the upper end of our forecast possibilities is less of a threat now because we are not factoring in a basin-wide significant rain event. Anecdotally, we know that the headwaters area of the Red River basin has seen good infiltration of melt water. With our current modeling and observation technology we have no way of quantifying those effects on the current forecast. Without a significant precipitation event triggering a basin-wide melt and the fact that some water has infiltrated the soils, the potential for record flooding decreases significantly south of the Grand Forks area. However there will still be significant flooding, no question about it."
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MINNESOTA... LONG PRAIRIE RIVER AT LONG PRAIRIE AFFECTING TODD COUNTY .THIS RIVER FORECAST IS BASED ON RAPID SNOWMELT EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES. THE CURRENT SNOWPACK CONTAINS APPROXIMATELY 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF LIQUID. THE RAPID MELTING WILL CAUSE THE WATER TO BE QUICKLY RELEASED. SHALLOW FROST IS STILL PRESENT...BUT WILL QUICKLY THAW WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE LIQUID WILL INFILTRATE THE SURFACE...BUT THE RAPID NATURE OF THE MELT WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE WATER TO RUN OFF DIRECTLY INTO THE STREAMS AND RIVERS.
Conditions are: Max Temperature (F) less than or equal to 70
Minimum Days in the Run: 200
Time Period No. of Days
1876-10-03 to 1877-04-21 201
1877-10-01 to 1878-04-21 203
1887-10-09 to 1888-04-25 200
1890-10-02 to 1891-04-23 204
1891-10-26 to 1892-05-16 204
1902-10-09 to 1903-04-26 200
1906-10-17 to 1907-05-11 207
1917-09-25 to 1918-04-30 218
1925-09-29 to 1926-04-19 203
1939-10-07 to 1940-04-27 204
1943-10-12 to 1944-05-10 212
1959-09-25 to 1960-04-11 200
1960-10-17 to 1961-05-09 205
1981-09-27 to 1982-04-22 208
1982-10-07 to 1983-04-24 200
1983-10-03 to 1984-04-25 206
1994-10-07 to 1995-05-10 216
Graphic credit above: "This drawing shows what happened to the Goshen, Wyo., tornado over a period of 12 minutes. The blue arrows are the rear-flank downdraft and the red line is the front-flank gust front. The primary and secondary rear-flank gust fronts (RFGF) are labeled." (Credit: Center for Severe Weather Research):
• 1) The weak circulation has not formed a tornado.
• 2) A tornado forms when part of the secondary gust front wraps around the circulation.
• 3) When the secondary gust front weakens winds drop below tornado speed and no funnel is seen.
• 4) The secondary gust front forms and the tornado re-forms and strengthens.
Sunspot AR1726 has developed a ‘delta class’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. This has prompted NOAA forecasters to up the odds of M-class flares to 40% and X-class flares to 15% within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot’s almost-central location on the solar disk, any eruptions today would likely be Earth-directed.We’ll keep you posted on any solar flares, and whether they might have any effect on our planet (e.g. on satellite/radio communication, auroras, etc.)."
Image credit above: NASA/GSFC/SDO)
Image credit: "Hubble's stunning near-infrared image of the Horsehead Nebula." (Image: NASA)
Photo credit above: "Example of a flexible-circuit film displayed by a member of Professor Tom Jackson's Electronics Research Group on Penn State's University Park campus." Image: Patrick Mansell
Image credit above: "Compo's method uses historic measurements of air pressure and ocean temperatures, put into a model, to calibrate surface temperatures over the 20th century." Image: Flickr/Jeff Kubina
Graphic credit above: "During Europe's 2003 heat wave, July temperatures in France were as much as 18 degrees F hotter than in 2001." Credit: NASA
Photo credit above: Darrell S. Kaufman / Northern Arizona University. "Kristi Wallace of the Alaska Volcano Observatory examines a lake sediment core from southern Alaska that shows intricate layering indicating environmental and climatic changes over centuries."
Photo credit above: "‘Why were too many permits issued? Because of the lobbying power of big business. Why did MEPs refuse to withdraw them? Because of the lobbying power of big business.' Photograph: Mick Tsikas/Reuters.