Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Last Steamy Day - Cooler & Stormier Next Week (why many farmers don't believe in climate change)

94 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.
84 F. average high on July 17.
94 F. high on July 17, 2012.

Heat Advisory posted again today (last day).

50-degree dew points return by Saturday.

"...As of 2003, 153 million Americans lived in coastal counties — an increase of 33 million since 1980— and 3.7 million lived within a few feet of high tide. The cost of the storms and the damage and destruction that follows will grow, unless we can create a much more resilient society..." - from a Time Magazine online article; details below.


"...Munich RE, the world's largest reinsurer, found that weather-related loss events in North America have quintupled in the last three decades, growing faster than anyplace in the world.." - from a Huffington Post story; details below.



Hot Front

This week has been a sharp, atmospheric retort to those of us who doubted we'd see a "real summer" this year. Spring was tortured. When a 10 foot wall of ice pushed onto our Pelican Lake shoreline on May 12 I seriously wondered if we would ever thaw out.
A treadmill of tropical warm fronts sparked the third wettest January - June period across Minnesota in 119 years. Lakes are brimming, rivers are gushing - and mosquitoes are chuckling.
Today should be the last (stinking hot) day this week; 92-95F with a heat index pushing 100F by late afternoon. Antiperspirant levels of heat, but not as brutal as last summer.
A wind shift to the northwest begins to cool us off Friday; Saturday will be a rare breath of fresh air as dew points dip into the 50s. More T-storms fire late Saturday night & Sunday morning. We may salvage a partly sunny Sunday afternoon. The most reliable models (oxymoron) keep the worst of the heat just south of Minnesota next week. We'll see.
In my weather blog today (below): A low-tech, non-chemical way to keep mosquitoes away, a video that shows why you can't leave kids and pets in hot cars, and the 27th anniversary of the infamous 1986 Brooklyn Park tornado, covered live by KARE-11. Yes, that still brings back strong memories...

Heat Advisory. Today is the last day of sauna-like heat, with a late afternoon heat index approaching 100F. Details from The National Weather Service:

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY...

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES: AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
  HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
  MIDDLE 70S.

* IMPACTS: THE PROLONGED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
  HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESS...
  ESPECIALLY FOR THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY...AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR
  CONDITIONING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.
 
 
 
One More Unpleasantly Hot Day. Today will bake the impurities right out of you! Hot yoga for everyone! OK. I'm not buying any of that either. Models are converging on an afternoon heat index  in the upper 90s to 102F range (RAP model is hottest once again). We start to feel some relief by Friday afternoon, dew points dipping into the 50s by Saturday.

Extended Outlook: Cooler (And Stormier) Next Week. Latest models, including ECMWF (above) suggest the worst of the blast-furnace heat will stay just south of Minnesota next week. Great news right? Pick your poison. Being on the northern edge of this heat-pump high puts Minnesota in a favored zone for numerous T-storms next week. In fact storms may drift in Saturday night and Sunday, a few more rounds of strong to severe T-storms next week.

How Fast Can The Sun Heat A Car? Here is why you can't leave kids (or pets) in a vehicle for even a blink of an eye. Details from NOAA: "...The sun's shortwave radiation (yellow in figure below) heats objects that it strikes.  For example, a dark dashboard or seat can easily reach temperatures in the range of 180 to over 200°F. These objects (e.g., dashboard, steering wheel, child seat) heat the adjacent air by conduction and convection and also give off longwave radiation (red in figure below) which is very efficient at warming the air trapped inside a vehicle. Shown (above) are time lapse photos of thermometer readings in a car over a period of less than an hour. As the animation shows, in just over 2 minutes the car went from a safe temperature to an unsafe temperature of 94.3°F. This demonstration shows just how quickly a vehicle can become a death trap for a child..."

1 Meteorologist, 1 Car 1 Super Hot Day - See What Happens. WeatherBug is one of our partners, and meteorologist Jacob Wycoff conducted an experiment to see how fast his car would heat up. I'm continually amazed by the number of people who believe it's OK to leave kids or pets in a car for a few minutes while they run errands. Bad idea. Every year too many children succumb to the heat, strapped in car seats, their parents oblivious to the risk they're in. Check out this must-see video clip from WeatherBug: "On average, 38 children die in hot cars each year from heat-related deaths after being trapped inside motor vehicles. Even the best of parents or caregivers can unknowingly leave a sleeping baby in a car; and the end result can be injury or even death. Not only are children often left in vehicles, but so are pets and the elderly!..."

27 Year Anniversary Of The July 18, 1986 Brooklyn Park Tornado. I still get goosebumps when I see this video, the 5 PM newscast on July 18, 1986, when a nearly stationary (white) tornado formed over the Springbrook Nature Center in Brooklyn Park. There were no watches or warnings in effect, but just enough instability to spin up an F-2 tornado. It's still a minor miracle that nobody was injured or killed during this event, covered live by KARE-11 and Sky 11, the station's chopper that flew around the tornado vortex, sending back incredible imagery that had the state and much of the nation spellbound. You can watch the entire newscast at TC Media Now. For the record, this is their description, not mine: "The weather event that made KARE and Paul Douglas world famous (and respected). While shooting overhead footage of the Minneapolis Aquatennial on a hot, muggy day on July 18, 1986, New11 pilot Max Messmer and photographer Tom Empy discovered and shot live video of a tornado moving through Brooklyn Park. Paul Magers, Kirstin Lindquist and Paul Douglas provided live coverage during some fo the most vivid pictures of a tornado ever shot and broadcast live."

90-Degree Days In The Twin Cities. On average MSP picks up about 14 days at or above 90 during a typical summer. Last year: 31, the record is 44 days back in 1988. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.



TODAY: Stinking hot. Lot's of sunshine. Winds: SW 10-20+ Dew point: 70. Feel like 100F by late afternoon. High: 94

THURSDAY NIGHT: Muggy with a slight chance of T-storms late. Low: 74

FRIDAY: Early shower or T-shower, turning a bit cooler. High: 85

SATURDAY: Nicer day of the weekend. Plenty of sun, breathing easier. Dew point: 58. Wake-up: 63. High: 78

SUNDAY: AM T-storms, some PM sun. Wake-up: 60. High: near 80

MONDAY: Hot sun, stray late-day T-storm. Wake-up: 66. High: near 90

TUESDAY: Muggy, few T-storms likely. Wake-up: 69. High: 86

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. DP: 64. Wake-up: 67. High: 85

Climate Stories...

Why Don't Farmers Believe In Climate Change? Many farmers do acknowledge the science, at least the ones I've talked to in southern Minnesota. A natural cycle? We'll see, but many of these farmers are seeing the effects of heavier summer rains and crazier extremes ("weather whiplash") in their fields. They may not believe climate scientists, but they tend to believe their own eyes. Here's an excerpt from Slate.com: "...When Iowa State University sociologists polled nearly 5,000 Corn Belt farmers on climate change, 66 percent believed climate change is occurring, but only 41 percent believed humans bore any part of the blame for global warming. It's not just the Corn Belt: Farmers across the country remain skeptical about climate change. When asked about it, they tell me about Mount Pinatubo and weird weather in the 1980s, when many of today's most established farmers were getting their starts. But mostly I hear about cycles in the weather, like the El Niño–La Niña cycle that drives big changes in North American weather. Maybe it's because farmers are uniquely exposed to bad weather, whether too hot or too cold. Almost any type of weather hurts some crop; the cereals want more rain, but the sweet potatoes like it hot and dry..."

The Costs Of Climate Change And Extreme Weather Are Passing The High Water Mark. Time Magazine online has the story - here's a clip: "Hurricane Sandy cost the U.S. some $70 billion in direct damages and lost economic output. This is, obviously, a lot of money — Sandy was the second most expensive hurricane in U.S. history after a small tropical storm called Katrina. Much of that cost was borne by the government — local, state and federal — and some of it was absorbed by those of us who lived in the storm’s path. But about $20 billion to $25 billion of the damage from the storm was eventually covered by the insurance industry. Much of that bill in turn was covered by the big reinsurers, the companies that take on insurance policies from primary insurance companies looking to spread out their risk. And if you were an insurance company affected by Sandy, you better hope you had a reinsurer behind you..."

Addressing Climate Change Grows Our Economy, Creates Jobs. I couldn't agree more. Whatever jobs are lost in carbon-intensive energies will more than be replaced by non-carbon, non-polluting ways to keep the lights on, tapping something America does better than any country on the planet: innovation. Here's a clip from Huffington Post: "...Over the last four years, we've doubled the electricity we get from wind and solar. We've seen dramatic increases -- and dramatic savings -- from efficiency in our automobiles, buildings and appliances. Along the way, we've created more than 3.4 million jobs in renewable energy, energy efficiency and related fields, and injected billions of dollars into our economy in clean energy investments and energy efficiency savings. These jobs are being created in every corner of our country. My organization, Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2), tracked more than 300 clean energy and clean transportation job announcements nationwide last year that are expected to create more than 110,000 made-in-America jobs -- jobs growing next-generation biofuels in places like Iowa; jobs building solar panels in North Carolina and jobs creating next-generation battery technology in Michigan and California..."

Which Makes More Sense? It's actually 97% of peer-reviewed, published climate scientists, worldwide. Credit here.

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