68 F. average high on September 25.
68 F. high on September 25, 2012.
3.9 F. September temperatures are running nearly 4 F. warmer than average, to date.
.33" rain predicted on Saturday (NAM model).
What "Pause?" Short-Term Variations Versus Long-Term Trends. Nature (and science for that matter) rarely move in a perfectly straight line. Here's an explanation from NASA: "Short-term trends in global temperature (here, the blue lines that show temperature trends at five-year intervals from 1970 to 2010) can range from decreases to sharp increases. The evidence of climate change is based on long-term trends of 20-30 years or more (red line)." Measurement data from NASA-GISS.
Every day is a gift - that's why they call it the present. "Look for the good in everything and everyone" my late mom said, with a grin and a sigh. Some good advice. Drought aside, we're blessed with some of the best weather in America floating above our heads.
San Diego, without the smog and soul-crushing traffic.
A late-season summer swoon spills over into next Tuesday with 70s every day, a good 5-15 F. above average the next 7 days.
Reality check: nearly 2 inches of snow fell on September 26, 1942. On this date in 1965 the low temperature was a crisp 27F. No, I don't take a bug-free 78-degree blue-sky day in late September for granted.
For the record, much of the MSP metro sees the first frost by October 7; the first hard freeze (colder than 28F - cold enough to end the growing season) by October 20.
Long-range models hint at frosty suburbs by October 6; a better chance of frost the second week of October.
But you can expect low 80s today & again Friday. Classmates and co-workers may go missing, a rash of inexplicable "sick days".
Models print out a little rain Saturday (enough to keep the dust down) but no big storms are brewing. By mid-October it should be cold enough for flurries up north.
Are you ready? Me neither.
Image credit above: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
Photo credit above: "A bridge collapsed after flash flooding at the Broomfield/Lafayette border in Colorado on Sept. 12. The flooding in Colorado earlier this month was "unprecedented," according to a report." (Photo: Cliff Grassmick, AP)
Graphic credit above: "CIRES produced a map illustrating all of the stressed watersheds in the continental United States, with colors from light green to red indicating increasing levels of stress."
Photo credit above: "This frame grab from a 2011 video shows embers being shot at a structure during a test at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety test facility in Richburg, S.C. The National Institute of Standards and Technology is developing the Wildland Urban Interface Hazard Scale to get a measurement of the intensity of a wildfire similar to the way officials use scales to measure hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes." Courtesy IBHS.
Photo credit above:
TODAY: Warm sun. Take the day off. Winds: S 20+ High: 81
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, unusually mild for late September. Low: 63
FRIDAY: Some sun, stray T-storm. Dew point: 58. High: 82
SATURDAY: Mild start. Gray, few showers. Wake-up: 67. High: 72 (falling into the 60s by afternoon).
SUNDAY: Lot's of sun, very pleasant. Wake-up: 45. High: 71
MONDAY: Lukewarm sun, still too dry. Wake-up: 54. High: 75
TUESDAY: What October? Lingering warmth with plenty of sun. Wake-up: 54. High: 76
WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, PM showers. Wake-up: 54. High: 66
How Sure Is Sure? Scientists Like Certainty Of Global Warming To Deadliness Of Smoking. The Washington Post has the article - here's an excerpt: "Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill. They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy or that dioxin in Superfund sites is dangerous...Some climate-change deniers have looked at 95 percent and scoffed. After all, most people wouldn’t get on a plane that had only a 95 percent certainty of landing safely, risk experts say. But in science, 95 percent certainty is often considered the gold standard for certainty..."
Photo credit above: Associated Press - FILE - "Smoke pours from a chimney at a cement plant in Binzhou city, in eastern China’s Shandong province, Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013. Scientists from around the world have gathered in Stockholm in September 2013 for a meeting of a U.N. panel on climate change and will probably issue a report saying it is “extremely likely” - which they define in footnotes as 95 percent certain."
Graphic credit above: "Change in the heat content in the upper 2000 m of the world’s oceans." Source: NOAA.