66 F. average high on September 29.
82 F. high on September 29, 2012.
88 F. today's record high at KMSP.
Summer's Last Gasp?
My wife keeps running marathons. I fear she's practicing to run away from me. Her biggest fear? Warm & windy.
That won't be an issue for the 2013 Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon. After summer-like warmth into midweek a true taste of October arrives late week, spilling over into a jacket-worthy weekend. It now looks like the MSP metro may avoid a frost, but runners can expect 40s and 50s Sunday morning under a postcard-perfect sky.
Me? I run when chased.
Highs near 80F are expected into Wednesday over southern Minnesota. Not bad considering the Twin Cities saw a coating of snow on Sept. 30, 1961.
ECMWF ("Euro") guidance hints at strong T-storms late Wednesday, steadier rain Thursday, with a cold wind blowing behind this front Friday. It may be cold enough aloft for the first flakes of the season for the Red River Valley late Friday; ground temperatures probably too warm for anything to stick.
Did your pulse rate just spike? Talk about big swings.
More 60s and a few 70s return next week; a better chance of a metro-wide frost the weekend of October 12-13 - with another surge of 60s by mid-month.
Will we ease into winter or experience a cold smack across the face? Stay tuned.
Image credit: NOAA and hurricanescience.org.
Photo credit above: Diana Eva Maldonado, The Brownsville Herald. "A home on Van Buren Street in Brownsville remains boarded up from Hurricane Dolly, but today's rain has already flooded the street."
TODAY: Blue sky, summer breeze. Winds: S 15-25. High: 82
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear and mild for the last night of September. Low: 59
TUESDAY: October Lite. Lukewarm sunshine, less wind. High: 78
WEDNESDAY: Still balmy with fading sun. Late-day T-storms. Wake-up: 53. High: 79
THURSDAY: Periods of rain likely, turning cooler. Wake-up: 56. High: 65
FRIDAY: Feels like October. Chilling breeze, few sprinkles and showers. Wake-up: 50. High: 57
SATURDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Wake-up: 43. High: 53
SUNDAY: More sun, good running weather. Wake-up: 44. High: 66
* The IPCC AR5 Report Summary is here, courtesy of The New York Times.
* IPCC Climate Report: The Digested Read. Here's an overview at The Guardian.
Image credit above: "Humanity's choice (via IPCC): Aggressive climate action ASAP (left figure) minimizes future warming. Continued inaction (right figure) results in catastrophic levels of warming, 9°F over much of U.S."
Image above: National Post and Nordic Bulk Carriers.
Why The World Won't Listen. Our grandkids are going to be pretty irritated with us - all the science and data and we sat on our hands, debating the "facts", listening to fossil-fuel-funded deniers babble on, hoping they might just be right. Here's an excerpt from NewScientist and Slate that explains how some of this perpetual denial is hard-wired into all of us: "...How did the rational arguments of science and economics fail to win the day? There are many reasons, but an important one concerns human nature. Through a growing body of psychological research, we know that scaring or shaming people into sustainable behavior is likely to backfire. We know that it is difficult to overcome the psychological distance between the concept of climate change—not here, not now—and people's everyday lives. We know that beliefs about the climate are influenced by extreme and even daily weather. One of the most striking findings is that concern about climate change is not only, or even mostly, a product of how much people know about science. Increased knowledge tends to harden existing opinions..."
Animated image credit: media.giphy.com.