65 F. average high on October 1.
72 F. high on October 1, 2012.
Cold rain for Minnesota Friday into Saturday, possibly mixing with wet snow near the Dakota border.
Plowable snow for the central/eastern Dakotas?
Cold, Wet Slap
You may be running on Sunday - just to stay warm. The first significant "Canadian Intrusion" of the winter season arrives this weekend, preceded by heavy rain - followed by an almost November-like breeze by Sunday. Any sun early Sunday will give way to low, lumpy stratocumulus clouds; temperatures stuck in the 40s with a whiff of wind chill for runners (and spectators) participating in this year's Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon. It will be a chilly race; any instability showers and sprinkles probably holding off until afternoon (when I will triumphantly cross the finish line on my Segway Scooter).
Enjoy 70s with fading sun today; a few T-storms may get your attention tonight.
The biggest storm in 5 months will spin up, pushing two surges of rain across Minnesota. The first wave of rain arrives Thursday, a second soaking possible Friday afternoon into midday Saturday. Some 1-2 inch amounts are possible, especially north & west of MSP. Cold exhaust follows the storm, temperatures aloft ALMOST cold enough for a few stray flurries close to home Sunday evening.
Payback for a September 5.2F warmer than average? Perhaps. Don't despair, more 60s are brewing by mid-October.
1.29" rain predicted for the Twin Cities by Saturday morning (NAM model).
* but the European (ECMWF) model isn't picking up on this system strengthening in the Gulf, at least not yet, so I'm discounting this solution a bit (for now).
Photo credit above: "Reporter Trevor Hughes too this photo from Estes Park, Colo., on Sept. 24. "Beauty amidst devastation in Colorado," he wrote." / Trevor Hughes.
File photo credit above: "In this Sept. 14, 2013, file photo, a portion of Lefthand Canyon Road near the intersection of Olde Stage Road in Boulder, Colo., is destroyed by floodwaters. Colorado transportation officials are scrambling to replace key mountain highways with at least gravel before the first winter storms hit as early as October, but rebuilding every flood-damaged road and bridge in the mountains and plains will have to wait until 2014 or beyond." (AP Photo/Daily Camera, Jeremy Papasso, File).
File photo above: " .
Image credit: May, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado aerial image, before and after. Courtesy: ESRI.
Image credit above: "The Blooming Bamboo home, by Vietnamese architectural firm H&P Architects." (Photo: Doan Thanh Ha).
Photo credit: Ron Johnson, Journal Star.
One In Eight People Around The World Go Hungry, Says U.N. Report. The New York Times has the sobering details - here's an excerpt: "One in eight people around the world is chronically undernourished, the United Nations' food agencies said on Tuesday, warning world leaders that some regions would fail in halving the number of hungry by 2015. In their latest report on food insecurity, the U.N. agencies estimated that 842 million people were suffering chronic hunger in 2011-13, or 12 percent of the world's population, down 17 percent from 1990-92..."
TODAY: Fading sun, last lukewarm day. Winds: SE 10. High: 77
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few T-storms. Low: 57
THURSDAY: Periods of rain likely, heavy at times. High: 68
FRIDAY: More rain, heaviest PM hours. Wake-up: 56. High: 63
SATURDAY: Rain lingers, windy & colder. Wake-up: 54. High: 56
SUNDAY: Windy and chilly. AM sun, PM clouds, shower. Wake-up: 41. High: near 50
MONDAY: Gray start, slow PM clearing. Wake-up: 39. High: 55
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, still cool. Wake-up: 38. High: near 60
"global climate models generally simulate global temperatures that compare well with observations over climate timescales ... The 1990–2012 data have been shown to be consistent with the [1990 IPCC report] projections, and not consistent with zero trend from 1990 ... the trend in globally-averaged surface temperatures falls within the range of the previous IPCC projections."Graphic credit above: "
Graphic credit above: "Increase of water temperature in the deep Greenland Sea. Mean temperature (°C) from 2000 m to the bottom in the central Greenland Sea (74-76°N, 0-6°W) from 1950 to 2009 (red line). The shading shows the range of temperature from 2000 m (warmer limit) to the bottom (colder limit). (Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut)."
NOAA Scientists Looking At Link Between Climate Change And Flooding. CBS Denver has the story and video - here's an excerpt: "A United Nation’s panel on climate change says the changes can be blamed on human activity. Top scientists from around the world say people are mostly to blame for rising temperatures since 1951. Some of the best weather and climate scientists in the world are based at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder. It’s ironic and convenient they are located in Boulder where the flood did some of its worst damage. They are analyzing all the data to determine whether this is truly the 100-year flood or brought on by climate change..."