63 F. average high on October 5.
48 F. high on October 5, 2012.
1.23" rain has fallen on the Twin Cities so far in October.
50s today, but 3-4 days above 70F later this week.
What I can't yet wrap my tired brain around is this: why should conservatism apply to everything BUT the environment, the very thing that sustains us?
How do we keep the lights on and the economy humming along, using market forces to make greener, cleaner options more viable? When people realize they can save green by going green.
Get an energy audit on your home. Buy carbon offsets when you fly. Consider a more fuel-efficient vehicle.
I just traded 2 gas-powered cars on a Tesla Model S. It's a techno-geek's 4-wheel fantasy - gliding past the local BP gas station with a grin on my face; charging it in my garage at night, using cheaper, off-peak electricity.
There's no silver bullet, but there is silver buckshot that can make a difference long-term.
Lead, South Dakota is digging out from 43 inches of snow (not bad for the first week of October), while Sioux City cleans up from a rare swarm of October tornadoes. "Karen" is fizzling in the Gulf, more of a sloppy inconvenience than a huge threat.
Showers linger today, a raw breeze giving way to 4 days at/above 70F later this week.
We just picked up 1-2 inches of rain; a well-timed soaking. Drought is easing, and I still don't see a metro frost looking out 2 weeks.
* The NOAA.gov portal, which often serves as a hub for life-threatening storm information and resources; it is redirecting to weather.gov, which is fully functional
* NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory, which provides storm imagery on a daily basis
* NASA’s Hurricane Web site, which provides news and visuals about tropical weather systems
* NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s weather imagery..."
* Wind shear still interfering with circulation; all the indications suggest Karen weakening into a tropical depression overnight, brushing the Gulf Coast with heavy rain and isolated tornadoes Sunday into early Monday.
* As suggested late yesterday, Karen will probably wind up being more of a soggy nuisance than a facility-threatening event.
* Don't watch the storm center - all the convection and heaviest T-storms are taking place 50-100 miles east of the storm center, a trend which may spill over into Sunday.
* Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for metro New Orleans, Tropical Storm Warning posted Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River.
* Some 4-5" rainfall amounts are possible over the Mississippi River Delta. Mobile and Pensacola will pick up closer to 1-2" rain, capable of (minor) flash flooding late Sunday into Monday morning, mainly poor drainage areas and streets that usually flood during heavy T-storms.
Summary: Once again the ECMWF (European) model outperformed U.S. models, including NAM and HWRF. Karen moved into a highly-sheared environment, winds aloft too strong and dry to sustain a significant storm. There will be minor flooding as the remains of Karen come ashore Sunday and Monday morning, and a few tornadoes can't be ruled out, but impacts on personnel and facilities will fall into the extreme-nuisance range, rather than a life-threatening storm capable of serious disruptions and risk to life and property. That said, every tropical system is unique and capable of last-minute surprises that weren't on our radar. Another update Sunday morning, but as the risk from Karen slowly diminishes we will ease off on briefings - to acknowledge and match the current threat level.
Graphic credit above: "In this 3-D map of potential temperature, relatively cool air wraps around Sandy's core near the surface (purple and blue colors), while air parcels gain heat from moisture condensing into clouds and precipitation as they ascend through the storm’s core." Credit: UCAR.
Photo credit above: "Bill O'Reilly of Fox News." (Reuters).
SUNDAY: Dry start. Showers pop up. Winds: NW 10+ High: 54
SUNDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds and sprinkles - still raw. Low: 41
MONDAY: Sun returns, turning milder. High: 66
TUESDAY: Sunny, warm afternoon breeze. Wake-up: 50. High: 71
WEDNESDAY: Lukewarm sun, fall on hold. Wake-up: 53. High: 72
THURSDAY: Still breezy and balmy. Wake-up: 55. High: 74
FRIDAY: Less sun, windy. Showers at night. Wake-up: 58. High: 73
SATURDAY: Early shower, then clearing. Wake-up: 54. High: 67
Photo credit above: "An ephemeral lake in California's Yosemite National Park where Pacific tree frogs breed." Credit: USGS.
Earth, 2100 AD. Four Futures Of Environment And Society. How quickly will we wean ourselves off fossil fuels will determine the Extended Outlook - for the planet. Here's an excerpt from New Scientist: "...Here, New Scientist explores four hypothetical futures for human society in 2100, using criteria set out by climate modellers – though we cannot reproduce the huge amount of data in their scenarios (see graph). We have selected some key points and sketched out an image of society in each scenario. To do this, we drew on descriptions published by the IPCC in 2000 and, in consultation with climate modellers, chose the ones that correspond to the concentrations of greenhouse gases published in last week's IPCC report (see "Climate report: Lull in warming doesn't mean we're safe")... (Image: NASA).
Politically biased media climate coverage is not a coincidenceThe scientific evidence is what it is, and it has no political bias. The same is not true of the media outlets that cover the topic. It's not a coincidence that politically conservative tabloids and newspapers like the Daily Mail, Telegraph, Australian, and Wall Street Journal spend a disproportionate amount of time amplifying the voices of the less than 3 percent of climate contrarian scientists, as well as many non-scientist contrarians..."
Image above: Clean Technica.